PAULICK DERBY INDEX: THE ARRIVAL OF DUNKIRK
It was a quiet weekend for 3-year-old racing and yet the Paulick Derby Index already had its first shake-up. In only our second week, potential superstar Dunkirk jumped toward the front of the line, even garnering a first place vote. After an impressive win in a Gulfstream allowance race last Thursday, He makes his first appearance on the PDI by jumping straight to fourth on the list of leading Kentucky Derby contenders. Other impressive risers were Desert Party who took over the fifth position and The Pamplemousse whose strong workouts have allowed him to make his debut in the 12 hole.
A few additional voters have come on-board in this, our second week, in what is now the most comprehensive Derby poll available anywhere. We would like to take this opportunity to welcome Richard Eng, Andy Serling, Lisa Grimm, Jessica Chapel, Valerie Grash and Todd Schrupp to the roster of voters. You can see their ballots along with all the other participants at the bottom of this page. And most importantly, we have also allowed the racing public, including industry professionals, owners and breeders, and racing fans, to have their say through our Paulick Derby Index poll on our front page. The ballot is finalized by 10 pm EST Monday so if you were too late to have your vote counted, remember to make sure you don’t miss out the following weeks.
A special thanks to ESPN.com for making the Paulick Derby Index part of their ongoing horse racing coverage, starting this week.
RAY’S PICKS AND ANALYSIS
1. Pioneerof The Nile. Five-furlong workout in 1:00 3/5 at Santa Anita on Feb. 22 indicates Bob Baffert-trained son of Empire Maker is on his game. Here’s what clocker Toby Turrell of Horseplayerpro.com had to say about the Zayat Stables runner: “Pioneerof The Nile…worked in company with stakes-sort stablemate Ten Churros. The keys to the work were the fractions set by the big, gangly colt, and the manner in which he disposed of his workmate — once again on cue inside the sixteenth pole. First, the splits from my watch were :13 4/5, :26, :38 2/5, :50 2/5, 1:13 4/5 and a gallop-out time of 1:26-2/5. Those splits make this a huge move on the watch alone. But what also stands out and stamps this colt as the real deal was the ease of the final quarter-mile, not to mention the responsiveness of the colt to the signals being given by regular pilot Garrett Gomez, who was in the saddle. Off of this work alone, Pioneerof The Nile could easily be moved up any Kentucky Derby top ten list! He was visually striking this morning over a very kind and cushioned Pro Ride surface.”
Thanks, Toby, but I can’t move this guy up any farther!
2. Old Fashioned. Quiet week after President’s Day win at Oaklawn Park in the Southwest Stakes for unbeaten Unbridled’s Song colt. My biggest concern remains the relative lack of depth in competition he will have faced at Oaklawn Park this spring, and there is a very good chance he’ll arrive at Churchill Downs unbeaten.for trainer Larry Jones and owner Rick Porter.
3. Stardom Bound. IEAH’s Tapit filly worked five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 Feb. 22 in what Horseplayerpro.com clocker Toby Turrell called a “maintenance drill.” Here are Turrell’s comments:”The final three-eighths clicked off my watch in :35 3/5, with the last furlong in :11 4/5. Her athleticism came shining through, hitting the ground with total efficiency through the stretch.I would call this a healthy and productive maintenance drill, and add that she is dead-fit, continuing to gallop with nice energy.” March 7 Santa Anita Oaks is next and then she may try colts for first time.
4. Friesan Fire. A.P. Indy colt keeps firing away for Larry Jones and Vinery Stable. I don’t know that there’s a lot of improvement left in this one, but he rates highly off his existing form. March 14 Louisiana Derby is next.
5. Desert Party. Currently the strongest of the Godolphin group, Street Cry colt has picked up some additional admirers off that recent UAE Two Thousand Guineas win over Vineyard Haven and others. I would continue to follow jockey Frankie Dettori’s lead on which of the Dubai-based 3-year-olds has the best chance.
6. Patena. Seeking the Gold colt working well as new trainer Rick Dutrow gets him ready for first start under IEAH colors. Will know a whole more about this one after March 14 Louisiana Derby.
7. Midshipman. Champion 2-year-old of 2008 being readied for first start in Dubai on March 5 for trainer Saeed bin Suroor. As with a number of past juvenile champs, I have to wonder if this son of Unbridled’s Song will continue to progress or merely was a more precocious colt than his contemporaries early in his career.
8. Vineyard Haven. Will have to wait to see how this talented son of Lido Palace does in his second start in Dubai. My biggest concern is whether he has the pedigree to get the mile and a quarter of the Derby.
9. Beethoven. Will need to put in a strong showing in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes this weekend for trainer John Ward. Workout pattern hasn’t built a great deal of confidence in the Sky Mesa colt, but Ward has never been a believer in firing bullet work after bullet work.
10. Giant Oak. Could this be the sucker horse of the Top 10? Son of Giant’s Causeway seems to find traffic trouble in his starts, and there’s no guarantee that with a clean trip he’s ever going to put things together for a win.
This week’s talking horse was Dunkirk, who did look good beating an allowance field at Gulfstream Park, but I’m just not quite ready to anoint him as the second coming off that victory. The Derby Trail is historically littered with late bloomers that didn’t live up to the hype. Are the rules of engagement changing for the Derby, meaning a horse that didn’t race as a 2-year-old can win America’s most famous horse race?We know that hasn’t happened since long before the Cubs won their last World Series in 1908. Curlin came close, but didn’t win, and I’m going to let it happen a couple of times before I’m ready to discard the importance of good 2-year-old form.
| Ray Paulick | Fan Vote | Paul Moran | Billy Reed | John Conte | Bill Finley |
| Paulick Report | Paulick Report | At The Races | Billy Reed Says | Conte’s Picks | ESPN, NYT |
| Pioneerof the Nile | Old Fashioned | Old Fashioned | Old Fashioned | Old Fashioned | Old Fashioned |
| Old Fashioned | Dunkirk | Stardom Bound | Midshipman | Dunkirk | Pioneerof the NIle |
| Stardom Bound | Pioneerof the Nile | Pioneerof the Nile | Chocolate Candy | Pioneerof the Nile | Friesan Fire |
| Friesan Fire | Friesan Fire | Midshipman | Evita Argentina | Midshipman | Stardom Bound |
| Desert Party | Chocolate Candy | Hello Broadway | Silver City | Capt. Candyman Can | Capt. Candyman Can |
| Patena | Desert Party | Taquarub | Pioneerof the Nile | West Side Bernie | Desert Party |
| Midshipman | Stardom Bound | Notonthesamepage | Capt. Candyman Can | Haynesfield | Silver City |
| Vineyard Haven | Midshipman | Friesan Fire | Friesan Fire | Chocolate Candy | Haynesfield |
| Beethoven | Patena | Desert Party | Beethoven | The Pamplemousse | Midshipman |
| Giant Oak | Hello Broadway | Evita Argentina | Imperial Council | Friesan Fire | Dunkirk |
| Randy Moss | Bill Nack | Valerie Grash | Gary West | Michael Nikolic | Jeremy Plonk |
| ESPN | ESPN | Foolish Pleasure | FW Star-Telegram | Gathering The Wind | Horseplayer Pro, ESPN |
| Old Fashioned | Dunkirk | Friesan Fire | Old Fashioned | Old Fashioned | Old Fashioned |
| Dunkirk | Firesan Fire | Old Fashioned | Dunkirk | Friesan Fire | Patena |
| Friesan Fire | Pioneerof the Nile | Taqarub | Hello Broadway | Patena | Mr. Fantasy |
| Pioneerof the Nile | Old Fashioned | Stardom Bound | Friesan Fire | Flying Pegasus | Pioneerof the Nile |
| Capt. Candyman Can | The Pamplemousse | Rachel Alexandra | Capt. Candyman Can | Desert Party | Friesan Fire |
| Desert Party | Giant Oak | Desert Party | Giant Oak | Pioneerof the Nile | Imperial Council |
| Hello Broadway | Stardom Bound | Dunkirk | Pioneerof the Nile | Chocolate Candy | Hello Broadway |
| Midshipman | Desert Party | Chocolate Candy | Imperial Council | Papa Clem | Capt. Candyman Can |
| Flying Pegasus | Patena | Papa Clem | Patena | Capt. Candyman Can | Dunkirk |
| The Pamplemousse | I Want Revenge | Mr. Hot Stuff | Flying Pegasus | Dunkirk | Silver City |
| Bill Christine | John Pricci | Vic Zast | Jon White | Richard Eng | Alan Mann |
| Horserace Insider | Horserace Insider | Horserace Insider | HRTV, Santa Anita TV | Las Vegas R-J | Left At The Gate |
| Old Fashioned | Old Fashioned | Old Fashioned | Pioneerof the Nile | Old Fashioned | Pioneerof the Nile |
| Midshipman | Pioneerof the Nile | Pioneerof the Nile | Old Fashioned | Friesan Fire | Friesan Fire |
| Desert Party | Stardom Bound | Capt. Candyman Can | Stardom Bound | Patena | Capt. Candyman Can |
| Pioneerof the Nile | Capt. Candyman Can | Stardom Bound | Friesan Fire | Pioneerof the Nile | Old Fashioned |
| Friesan Fire | Midshipman | Friesan Fire | Patena | Dunkirk | Dunkirk |
| Stardom Bound | Hello Broadway | Dunkirk | Capt. Candyman Can | The Pamplemousse | Papa Clem |
| Beethoven | Mr. Fantasy | Desert Party | Papa Clem | Haynesfield | Big Drama |
| Haynesfield | West Side Bernie | Chocolate Candy | I Want Revenge | Danger To Society | Stardom Bound |
| Capt. Candyman Can | Friesan Fire | Flying Pegasus | Dunkirk | Mr. Fantasy | Mr. Fantasy |
| Vineyard Haven | Quality Road | Giant Oak | Chocolate Candy | Capt. Candyman Can | Flying Pegasus |
| Alicia Wincze | Joe Drape | Andy Serling | Brendan O’Meara | Jeff Scott | Jessica Chapel |
| Lexington H-L | New York Times | NYRA | The Saratogian | The Saratogian | Railbird |
| Old Fashioned | Old Fashioned | Desert Party | Friesan Fire | Pioneerof the Nile | Old Fashioned |
| Friesan Fire | Pioneerof the Nile | Giant Oak | Old Fashioned | Old Fashioned | Desert Party |
| Pioneerof the Nile | Evita Argentina | Imperial Council | Desert Party | Desert Party | Friesan Fire |
| Capt. Candyman Can | Capt. Candyman Can | Rachel Alexandra | Dunkirk | Friesan Fire | Capt. Candyman Can |
| Desert Party | Leedstheway | The Pamplemousse | Flat Out | Flat Out | Pioneerof the Nile |
| Midshipman | Hello Broadway | Capt. Candyman Can | Take The Points | Dunkirk | Imperial Council |
| Stardom Bound | Chocolate Candy | Danger To Society | Nowhere To Hide | Beethoven | Flying Pegasus |
| Beethoven | Haynesfield | Old Fashioned | Imperial Council | General Quarters | Dunkirk |
| Hello Broadway | Friesan Fire | Dunkirk | Danger To Society | Mr. Hot Stuff | Regal Ransom |
| Haynesfield | Sumo | Hello Broadway | Midshipman | Stardom Bound | Papa Clem |
| Lisa Grimm | Patrick Patten | Peter Denk | Nick Kling | Todd Schrupp |
| SuperfectaBlog | Tbred Bloggers Alliance | Thoroughbred Times | The Troy Record | TVG |
| Pioneerof the Nile | Friesan Fire | Old Fashioned | Old Fashioned | Old Fashioned |
| Old Fashioned | General Quarters | Dunkirk | Capt. Candyman Can | Stardom Bound |
| The Pamplemousse | Chocolate Candy | Desert Party | Patena | Desert Party |
| Friesan Fire | Pioneerof the Nile | Pioneerof the Nile | Dunkirk | The Pamplemousse |
| Stardom Bound | Patena | Midshipman | Imperial Council | Midshipman |
| Capt. Candyman Can | Hello Broadway | Stardom Bound | Friesan Fire | Pioneerof the Nile |
| Papa Clem | Old Fashioned | Patena | Hello Broadway | Friesan Fire |
| Chocolate Candy | The Pamplemousse | Friesan Fire | Flying Pegasus | I Want Revenge |
| Patena | Flying Pegasus | Mr. Fantasy | Giant Oak | Dunkirk |
| Hello Broadway | Notonthesamepage | Imperial Council | West Side Bernie | This One’s For Phil |
Tags: beethoven, desert party, dunkirk, Friesan Fire, giant oak, Godolphin, Horse Racing, Horsesplayerpro.com, kentucky derby, midshipman, Old Fashioned, patena, Paulick Derby Index, Paulick Report, PDI, Pioneerof The Nile, Ray Paulick, stardom bound, Toby Turrell, vineyard haven
February 24th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
I’m with you Ray. I just can’t climb on the Dunkirk wagon. He didn’t race at 2, and that’s a huge negative for me. For him to break that jinx, I think he would need to be racing in a weak crop, and this crop looks pretty salty.
I’m liking Pioneerof the Nile and Patena so far, along with the Candy Rides. And no way would I drop Flat Out.
Hoping Mr. Hot Stuff steps up in the Sham.
February 24th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
I’m scratching my head as to why Grade 3 Sam F. Davis winner General Quarters is dropped from the Derby list yet short of some unforeseen tragedy his owner most certainly will send him to the Derby. While Evita Argentina, who is a very nice filly, cracks the top 20 yet per her connections she is not going to be being aimed towards the Derby.
The risk with any list tends to reflect “impressive effort for the week” instead of a road map for whom we might see the first Saturday in May and going even further as to what finishing order.
There is a point where graded money does come into play with shattering the expectations of what X horse will do in the Derby. It wasn’t so many years ago that Rock Hard Ten as much as everyone assumed he’d go to the Derby and ‘take names’ didn’t even make it on account of the lack of graded money.
The Florida Derby in 2009 nets graded money of $450k to the winner, $150k to the place, and $75k to show. If a horse like Dunkirk wants to go the Kentucky Derby off just the Florida then he has to either finish 1 or 2; taking 3rd no matter how impressive off only allowance racing with that little money won’t lkely cut it. Especially with 1 gate automatically granted to the Kempton winner.
February 24th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
i don,t think Flat Out should to be dropped from the list after missing the break he circled the field and just missed 3rd in the Southwest,remember he,s still learning and the Derby is still several weeks away,however i do agree he,ll have to finish in the top 2 or 3 in the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby to make the cut,i think he will ,along with Mr Hot Stuff who will run in tis weekends Sham which his full brother Colonel John won last year.
February 24th, 2009 at 9:53 pm
Is the “2 year-old form” rule the last one standing?
Ed Fountaine in the NY Post (02/23/09) wrote an excellent recap of the rules that have fallen and the horses that slew them. If you missed it, here it is (typos, if any, are mine, not his):
“Ah, those Derby rules. From the 1970s through the late 1990s, you could pretty much whittle down the field down by applying qualifying factors, such as 2-year-old record, number of starts, time since last prep, and so on.
“But in 1998 the rules started to unravel when Real Quiet became just the 2nd Derby winner to have a dosage index over 4.00. Charismatic (1999) was the first Derby winner in memory that [had once] raced for a claiming tag. Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) was the first winning favorite since 1979.
“Funny Cide (2003) became the first gelding to win since 1929 and first NY-bred winner ever. Smarty Jones (2004) was the first undefeated winner since 1977. Barbaro (2006) became the first horse since 1956 to win the Derby with more than four weeks between starts.
“Street Sense (2007) snapped the “Breeders’ Cup Jinx.” He was also the first 2 year-old champion to win since 1979, and the 2nd winner since 1947 to have just two prep starts at age 3. Last year, Big Brown [2008] was the first winner since 1915 with just three prior lifetime starts, and the first since 1929 to break from post 20…”
February 25th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
the best i saw so far was a workout by the Pamplemousse prior to the san rafael. that includes races. awesome.
March 1st, 2009 at 8:16 am
Why do the above handicappers have the option of naming any horse they want to nominate, whereas the “public” poll being run this week (ending on Sunday March 1, 2009) limits the voters to just 12 possible candidates?
How can there possibly be any valid comparison between the two results when the structures of the two voting systems are so radically different?
What would be the big deal about listing at least every single horse that the handicappers have voted for and then letting the public select from that list?
Isn’t this the same forum that has run persuasive articles criticizing Churchill Downs - repeatedly, year after year - for running Derby Future Pools with far too few candidates - thus keeping the payoff odds artificially depressed and defeating the entire point of conducting the wagering?
Fortunately, three of my selections are on the list (unfortunately, my “best” longshot is not). But I cringe when I look at the other nine names - horses that in my (oft-erroneous opinion) will not make the cut in the coming Derby preps.
It’s still not too late to scrap what you’ve offered and post a new voting event that would encourage a much larger selection and thus, actually mean something after its results are posted.
March 2nd, 2009 at 3:20 am
Brad:
Your accommodating explanation of why there are only 13 horses in the “public poll” has exceeded all expectations.
You’re right on all counts:
1) Your ad space placement is the first priority;
2) This being the trial run, improvements are more logically anticipated in the future,
3) No other comparable site is doing anything like it and you should be recognized and commended for what has been accomplished so far; &
4) You cared enough about one of your fans to take the time to send a detailed and considerate explanation of what technical & financial limitations at this time dictate what is possible.
Yes, I agree that someone would scream “Where’s Horse #36?!”
But if I could accomplish one thing by sending this letter, it would be to convince you that we’d be far better off having induced a worldwide state of amnesia that had dissolved our ability to conceive of the word, “perfect.”
Perfection is horrible. It’s the reason why plastic surgeons drive big expensive cars and their deluded patients featured in the society pages create the suspicion that they’re on a 24-hour pass from the local morgue, enjoying a night out on the town.
***** perfect.
Regards,