Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. Empire Maker colt is scheduled to work at Santa Anita Wednesday for trainer Bob Baffert before shipping to Churchill Downs. Doesn’t get much respect for a horse coming into the Kentucky Derby off four consecutive graded stakes victories, but such is the influence of speed figures these days. I think speed figures are less relevant in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby than they are for everyday races because of the unique nature of the Derby.

2-I Want Revenge. Already stabled at Churchill Downs, which gives Stephen Got Even colt plenty of time to acclimate to the racing strip. One caveat: the track horses train over before the live meet begins is often dramatically different than the one they’ll have on Derby Day.

3- Dunkirk. Though I have nagging doubts in the back of my mind about why this son of Unbridled’s Song has been raced so sparingly, I’m confident he may be the best qualified of the Derby contenders to get distances of a mile and a quarter and beyond. How he trains over the next couple weeks will be key.

4-Quality Road. So far, so good on the patched up quarter crack. Unlike some owners and trainers who have run horses in the Derby that were physically compromised, I have confidence that neither Elusive Quality colt’s owner, Ned Evans, or trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, would do that. With the loss of speed horses The Pamplemousse and Old Fashioned, the pace scenario is shaping up in Quality Road’s favor.

5-Friesan Fire. The book on preparing a horse for the Kentucky Derby is being constantly rewritten, so I’m not discounting the A.P. Indy colt’s chances because of the seven weeks trainer Larry Jones is giving him between starts.  And while Louisiana Derby runner-up Papa Clem’s win in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby flattered Friesan Fire, I still don’t think he’s faced the toughest competition this winter.

6-Musket Man. Speaking of flattery, the win by General Quarters in the Toyota Blue Grass strengthened Musket Man’s Tampa Bay Derby triumph. There’s a lot to like about this son of Yonaguska, but the biggest question concerns his pedigree, specifically his propensity to get a classic distance.

7 Papa Clem. Good move by trainer Gary Stute to ship this Smart Strike colt to Oaklawn Park early to train up to the Arkansas Derby. Along with the two victories in New York by I Want Revenge, the win by Papa Clem shows the depth of this year’s California contingent, as both chased Pioneerof the Nile in earlier races.

8-General Quarters. I confess that I missed the trouble the Sky Mesa colt encountered when fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I went back and watched the race again after hearing about it during Steve Byk’s “At the Races” radio show on Monday. Sure enough, he got the worst in that race and ran back to the strong form he showed in the Sam F. Davis while surprising Saturday’s Toyota Blue Grass Field. I don’t think that win was a fluke, but the Blue Grass field was a relatively unproven one.

9-Chocolate Candy. Was hurt more than anyone else by the lack of pace in the Santa Anita Derby, yet still closed strongly to be second to Pioneerof the Nile. Son of Candy Ride will need quick fractions to have a shot in the Kentucky Derby, and at this stage I’m not so sure he’ll get them.

10-Desert Party. It’s asking a lot of the Street Cry colt to ship halfway around the world twice in a six-month period. How he trains over the Churchill Downs surface over the next two and half weeks and how he looks will gives us a better idea of his chances to give Sheikh Mohammed his first win in the Kentucky Derby.

Tags: Charitable Man, Chocolate Candy, desert party, dunkirk, Friesan Fire, General Quarters, giant oak, Hold Me Back, I Want Revenge, Mafaaz, Mr. Hot Stuff, musket man, Papa Clem, Pioneerof The Nile, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, Regal Ransom, Terrain, west side bernie, win willy

This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 14th, 2009 at 12:56 pm and is filed under PDI, Paulick Derby Index, Paulick Report, Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.