PAULICK DERBY INDEX by AmWest Entertainment: A TIGHTENING AT THE TOP

Last weekend was the final opportunity for Derby hopefuls to make their case. As a result, this week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment had two new entries with Square Eddie in a tie for 15th and Advice all alone in the 18th spot. The only other newbie on our list was a vote for Arkansas Derby 3rd place finisher Summer Bird.

Also significant was the tightening between the first and second place contenders I Want Revenge and Quality Road. This narrowing margin is due to Quality Road’s quarter crack not being as concerning as once believed.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. This was written before his first serious workout on the Churchill Downs surface, but I’m sticking with the Empire Maker colt unless and until he shows a complete disdain for dirt in his training up to the Kentucky Derby. Keeping Garrett Gomez in the saddle is a confidence booster because agent Ron Anderson is as sharp as they come.

2-I Want Revenge. Biggest question about Stephen Got Even colt’s two New York wins was who he beat. Not sure there was much quality behind him, but he was right there with Pioneerof the Nile in California and showed he likes the dirt. Versatile running style really a plus and jockey Joe Talamo is wise beyond his years.

3- Quality Road. Mystery horse as far as I’m concerned, because of the quarter crack. But based on that last New York workout and the fact the son of Elusive Quality apparently came out of it in good shape I’ve moved him up a notch over Dunkirk. Will he get the distance?

4-Dunkirk. Could there be a better backup rider to Garrett Gomez than Edgar Prado? No loss there in riding talent. Choice by Gomez and agent Anderson was a tough one, considering they were dealing with two high-powered trainers in Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher and two of the most prominent owners in the game in Ahmed Zayat and the Coolmore operation. Call me old school, but I think the lack of racing experience will go against both Quality Road and Dunkirk.

5-Friesan Fire. Larry Jones seems to have had a pretty well-defined plan for son of A.P. Indy and he’s sticking to it. Another one racing against history with his lengthy gap between races. Working solidly at Keeneland before shipping to Churchill Downs for final preparations.

6-Musket Man. Tampa Bay and Illinois Derby winner got vote of confidence from jockey Eibar Coa, but he’ll be facing a completely different caliber of horse when the Churchill Downs starting gates open.

7-Papa Clem. Smart Strike seems to keep siring one top runner after another, and Papa Clem is moving in the right direction as the first Saturday in May approaches. Gary Stute may be a Kentucky Derby rookie, but he’s no greenhorn, having gotten some big race experience when father Mel had Preakness winner Snow Chief and other top runners during a stellar training career.

8-Chocolate Candy. Interesting that a Santa Anita publicity staff survey of West Coast horsemen found a lot of support for this Candy Ride colt trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Will have a lot of horses to come around at the top of the stretch when he makes his late run.

9-Advice. So what if his Coolmore Lexington win was on a Polytrack surface that has produced so many unpredictable results? He’s an improving colt in good hands who closed like gangbusters to beat a Polytrack-loving Square Eddie.

10-Desert Party. How he trains over the next 10 days will have a lot to say about his chances. It’s a very difficult transition to make, coming from Dubai to Kentucky, and will take a top horse to handle it. I just don’t think he’ll be up to the challenge.

Ray Paulick	Fan Vote	Alex Brown	Paul Moran	Billy Reed	John Conte	Bill Finley
Paulick Report	Paulick Report	Alex Brown Racing	At The Races	Billy Reed Says	Conte’s Picks	ESPN, NYT
Pioneerof the Nile	I Want Revenge	Quality Road	Quality Road	Pioneerof the Nile	I Want Revenge	I Want Revenge
I Want Revenge	Quality Road	I Want Revenge	I Want Revenge	I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile	Friesan Fire
Quality Road	Friesan Fire	Desert Party	Pioneerof the Nile	Quality Road	West Side Bernie	Quality Road
Dunkirk	Pioneerof the Nile	Musket Man	Rachel Alexandra	Chocolate Candy	Papa Clem	Pioneerof the Nile
Friesan Fire	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	Regal Ransom	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	Papa Clem
Musket Man	Chocolate Candy	Dunkirk	Desert Party	Friesan Fire	Quality Road	General Quarters
Papa Clem	General Quarters	Regal Ransom	Chocolate Candy	General Quarters	Regal Ransom	Regal Ransom
Chocolate Candy	Papa Clem	Papa Clem	Friesan Fire	Musket Man	Dunkirk	Dunkirk
Advice	Desert Party	General Quarters	Papa Clem	Papa Clem	Chocolate Candy	Desert Party
Desert Party	Musket Man	Square Eddie	Musket Man	Desert Party		Chocolate Candy

Randy Moss	Bill Nack	Valerie Grash	Gary West	Michael Nikolic	Dana Byerly	Jeremy Plonk
ESPN	ESPN	Foolish Pleasure	FW Star-Telegram	Gathering the Wind	Green But Game	Horseplayer Pro, ESPN
I Want Revenge	I Want Revenge	Friesan Fire	Quality Road	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Pioneerof the Nile
Quality Road	Quality Road	Papa Clem	I Want Revenge	Quality Road	Quality Road	Quality Road
Dunkirk	Friesan Fire	I Want Revenge	Dunkirk	Pioneerof the Nile	I Want Revenge	Dunkirk
Friesan Fire	Pioneerof the Nile	Musket Man	Friesan Fire	Papa Clem	Desert Party	I Want Revenge
Desert Party	Dunkirk	Quality Road	Pioneerof the Nile	I Want Revenge	Papa Clem	Friesan Fire
Pioneerof the Nile	Chocolate Candy	Dunkirk	Desert Party	Chocolate Candy	Dunkirk	Mr. Hot Stuff
Papa Clem	Papa Clem	Mr. Hot Stuff	Chocolate Candy	West Side Bernie	Regal Ransom	Desert Party
Musket Man	Musket Man	Chocolate Candy	Musket Man	Musket Man	Musket Man	Papa Clem
Chocolate Candy	Desert Party	Regal Ransom	Papa Clem	Desert Party	General Quarters	Chocolate Candy
General Quarters	General Quarters	Summer Bird	West Side Bernie	Dunkirk	Chocolate Candy	Hold Me Back

Bill Christine	John Pricci	Vic Zast	Jon White	Richard Eng	Alan Mann	Alicia Wincze
Horserace Insider	Horserace Insider	Horserace Insider	HRTV, Santa Anita TV	Las Vegas R-J	Left at the Gate	Lexington H-L
I Want Revenge	Quality Road	Friesan Fire	Pioneerof the Nile	Friesan Fire	Dunkirk	Friesan Fire
Quality Road	Pioneerof the Nile	Pioneerof the Nile	I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile	I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile
Pioneerof the Nile	I Want Revenge	I Want Revenge	Quality Road	Quality Road	Pioneerof the Nile	I Want Revenge
Friesan Fire	Dunkirk	Quality Road	Papa Clem	I Want Revenge	Papa Clem	Quality Road
Desert Party	Musket Man	Dunkirk	Chocolate Candy	Dunkirk	Quality Road	Chocolate Candy
Dunkirk	Papa Clem	Regal Ransom	Friesan Fire	Papa Clem	General Quarters	Dunkirk
Regal Ransom	West Side Bernie	Chocolate Candy	Musket Man	Chocolate Candy	Chocolate Candy	Desert Party
Chocolate Candy	Friesan Fire	Desert Party	Desert Party	Hold Me Back	Friesan Fire	Papa Clem
Papa Clem	Chocolate Candy	Papa Clem	General Quarters	General Quarters	Win Willy	Musket Man
Musket Man	Desert Party	Hold Me Back	Dunkirk	Win Willy	Musket Man	Regal Ransom

Art Wilson	Joe Drape	Andy Serling	Jessica Chapel	Brendan O’Meara	Jeff Scott	Lisa Grimm
Los Angeles Newspapers	New York Times	NYRA	Railbird	The Saratogian	The Saratogian	SuperfectaBlog
I Want Revenge	Musket Man	Dunkirk	Pioneerof the Nile	Friesan Fire	I Want Revenge	I Want Revenge
Pioneerof the Nile	Papa Clem	Quality Road	Quality Road	I Want Revenge	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire
Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Desert Party	Desert Party	Pioneerof the Nile	Pioneerof the Nile	Chocolate Candy
Quality Road	Quality Road	I Want Revenge	I Want Revenge	Quality Road	Desert Party	General Quarters
Chocolate Candy	Pioneerof the Nile	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	Dunkirk	Quality Road	Papa Clem
Papa Clem	Dunkirk	West Side Bernie	Papa Clem	Papa Clem	Papa Clem	Quality Road
Dunkirk	General Quarters	Musket Man	Dunkirk	Desert Party	General Quarters	Pioneerof the Nile
Musket Man	Desert Party	General Quarters	General Quarters	Chocolate Candy	Mr. Hot Stuff	Regal Ransom
Hold Me Back	I Want Revenge	Papa Clem	Regal Ransom	Musket Man	Chocolate Candy	Musket Man
Square Eddie	Square Eddie	Regal Ransom	Musket Man	Rachel Alexandra	Hold Me Back	Hold Me Back

Patrick Patten	Peter Denk	Nick Kling	Simon Bray	Todd Schrupp
Tbred Bloggers Alliance	Thoroughbred Times	The Troy Record	TVG	TVG
Friesan Fire	Quality Road	Quality Road	I Want Revenge	Quality Road
Pioneerof the Nile	I Want Revenge	Dunkirk	Quality Road	Desert Party
Quality Road	Dunkirk	I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile	I Want Revenge
I Want Revenge	Pioneerof the Nile	Friesan Fire	Friesan Fire	General Quarters
General Quarters	Friesan Fire	Pioneerof the Nile	Chocolate Candy	Dunkirk
Papa Clem	Hold Me Back	Desert Party	Papa Clem	Friesan Fire
Chocolate Candy	Musket Man	Regal Ransom	Desert Party	Musket Man
Square Eddie	General Quarters	Papa Clem	Dunkirk	Hold Me Back
Musket Man	Square Eddie	Chocolate Candy	Musket Man	Pioneerof the Nile
Dunkirk	Papa Clem	Musket Man	General Quarters	Win Willy

Tags: Advice, Chocolate Candy, desert party, dunkirk, Friesan Fire, General Quarters, Hold Me Back, I Want Revenge, Mr. Hot Stuff, musket man, Papa Clem, Pioneerof The Nile, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, Regal Ransom, square eddie, Summer Bird, Terrain, west side bernie, win willy

This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 21st, 2009 at 11:41 am and is filed under PDI, Paulick Derby Index, Paulick Report. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

9 Responses to “PAULICK DERBY INDEX by AmWest Entertainment: A TIGHTENING AT THE TOP”

1. Scott Rion Says:
   April 21st, 2009 at 12:35 pm

   Ray,

   You better watch for one horse not mentioned above….MR. HOT STUFF. From a red-hot barn in WinStar, and also by the right sire, TIZNOW and broodmare sire, TURKOMAN to get the distance. In fact, may be better suited for the Belmont, but I read where WinStar would drop one of their other Derby candidates in order to get Mr. Hot Stuff in the field of 20. His recent third in the Santa Anita Derby he posted a high Beyer (114) and wasn’t running until the last eighth. He just seems to be rounding into form and fits some of the recent longshot winners that run the biggest race of their careers on Ky. Derby day.

   Love your site. Scott

2. Tom Horn Says:
   April 21st, 2009 at 1:37 pm

   I agree Scott … and have him in Derby Future Pool #3. I’m just happy it looks like he will get in … :o)

3. suitcase Says:
   April 21st, 2009 at 1:46 pm

   Mr Hot Stuff back on Jeff Scotts list,now that it looks like he,ll get in… Jeff still rocks…best work of the day at Churchill this am,a 3 year old maiden filly by A P Indy called Exotic Indy.whos scheduled to run a mile on the grass on Oaks day.4f in 48.80 well in hand…

4. Don Reed Says:
   April 21st, 2009 at 2:12 pm

   Ya gotta love that symbol of bliss, above— :o)

   The only visual incongruity is that it seemingly represents someone implausibly lying on the ground, staring up at the sky, at the same time they’re engrossed in their personal happiness.

   But it works here, because at 6 p.m. in the Churchill Downs infield on Derby day, that’s exactly the position hundreds of racing fans - having been there since 8 am that morning, running back and forth between the backstretch and the finish line - will be in.

   Not even the ice in the coolers will go to waste.

5. Steve D Says:
   April 21st, 2009 at 2:14 pm

   Joe Drape must just not like money. First Mafaaz, now Musket Man. Someone take the vote away from this guy!

6. Don Reed Says:
   April 21st, 2009 at 3:13 pm

   How Not To Handicap The Derby (In January, with the TV on in the background):

   Movie: “It’s A Mad Mad Mad World.”

   Scene: Pilot Jim Backus, because he didn’t like the way Mickey Rooney made his previous drink - gets out of his seat & hands over the controls of the plane to passenger Buddy Hackett.

   Rooney, aghast, seeing that his dimwit friend is now the pilot, screams at Backus, “What if something HAPPENS?!”

   Backus: “What can happen to an Old Fashioned?!”

   (Hackett - implausibly - then lands the plane safely.)

   Heck, it was worth a ten dollar bill in the KD Future Pool One, on O.F.

   Sure wish Buddy Hackett had made the bet for me.

7. Glimmerglass Says:
   April 21st, 2009 at 4:11 pm

   You know I think Rachel Alexandra is divine and if we wanted to play “what if” that would be great with the Kentucky Derby.

   However her owners are not going to race her in the Derby whatsoever. This isn’t a news flash. They’ve never wavered, never gave an suggestion of “maybe” or played coy with the press. So with that said - why is she listed?

   Not having her listed doesn’t mean she isn’t a better runner then many male horses. Seriously it isn’t a slight to exclude her because she’ll be in the Oaks.

   I just don’t get why she’s retained on the Derby list. If anything it suggests there are people out there not getting it and really not following the media. Yet this poll is made up of media people. Weird.

   As for Square Eddie, I saw him make that nice move in the Lexington however I’m suprised he’s running back and even more surprised to see him in top 10 lists. Fading fast in the last strides of a 1 1/16 race doesn’t bode well for a 1 1/4 mi race now does it?

8. Joe Says:
   April 21st, 2009 at 5:28 pm

   April 14 - The Courrier Journal wrote:
   “Terrain, who finished fourth in Saturday’s Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, is off the Kentucky Derby trail and will be pointed toward the Lone Star Derby a week later, trainer Al Stall said today.

   “The horse is fine,” Stall said of the Sky Mesa gelding, who is owned by Adele Dilschneider. “We just feel he’s not quite a Derby horse. We got our heads together and thought since he might be a second-tier horse that we’d point to the Lone Star Derby right now.”
   Why is he still listed?

9. Alex Says:
   April 23rd, 2009 at 5:33 pm

   Glimmerglass, I kept Rachel Alexandra on my list, right up until this week, because I figured IEAH Stables may try to buy her! From what I have seen this year she is the best 3yo in training right now.