PAULICK DERBY INDEX brought to you by Vinery LTD: TIME TO BLOSSOM
As expected, there was not much movement in the polls this week with an uneventful Coolmore Lexington Stakes running on Saturday as the only potential prep race. Because the minimum in stakes earnings this year could be as high as $250,000, several colts either on our list or previously listed may find their standing improved after this weekend's Derby Trial. Other than that, barring any breakthrough workouts or last minute injuries, the PDI top twenty does not look likely to move much.
By Ray Paulick
With all the serious Kentucky Derby preps in the books (and, sorry, but I think Saturday’s Derby Trial at Churchill Downs is more of a Preakness “trial”), it’s time to focus on workouts instead of races. Almost all of the horses in the Kentucky Derby’s prospective field will be on the grounds in the next few days, and we’ll start hearing more about who is blossoming in the springtime and who may be wilting.
It’s not just the timed workouts and how the horses gallop out afterwards that are important considerations in these last two weeks before the Run for the Roses, but how the 3-year-olds go about their business in other morning activities is just as important. They are, after all, athletes who are training for the biggest day of their lives. Are they eager and on the muscle when they jog or gallop, or more docile and disinterested? Think about how Muhammad Ali trained for his “rumble in the jungle” in Zaire—with fun and enthusiasm. His opponent, George Foreman, was sullen and unhappy. The results of the fight, with Ali whuppin’ up on Foreman, was a reflection of how they trained.
You might think the official Kentucky Derby website would make it easy to follow the Derby contenders during their workouts and training, but, if you’re like me, you’ll be disappointed. I went to www.kentuckyderby.com and clicked under the “News and Video” tab at the top of the page, expecting, for example, to see Dublin’s workout from Monday morning. Instead, I am offered a menu of videos like “How to pick your Derby hat,” “Derby hairstyles that work with your Derby hat,” and “how to make an original Bacardi mojito.”
Thanks, fellas.
Fortunately, starting this weekend, I would expect HRTV (co-owned by Churchill Downs) to show workouts and training films during their “Pursuit of the Crown” telecasts.
For those who have been fortunate to see some of the Derby contenders in the flesh during the winter, it’s a great exercise to see if you can discern any physical developments: are they filling out and muscling up (not as exaggerated these days now that anabolic steroids are regulated and effectively banned)? Do their coats look shiny and healthier than ever (we love those dapples!)?
Nick Zito, a two-time Derby winning trainer, has long talked about how horses can really develop in Kentucky during the springtime–something about that bluegrass they graze on.
Another factor to look for in the next two weeks is “trainerspeak.” When it comes to the Derby, there are no “little setbacks.” To win the Kentucky Derby, everything has to go right. Workouts can’t be botched or missed, fevers or minor problems can’t be overcome in the final days before the big race. Remember the quarter crack to Unbridled’s Song? Empire Maker’s bruised heel? Old Trieste’s ridiculously fast workout?
As the late Dan Fogelberg sang in Run for the Roses, “It’s the chance of a lifetime in a lifetime of chance.” That’s the Kentucky Derby, where nothing is certain.
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April 20th, 2010 at 12:52 pm
I agree about the Kentucky Derby web site. It was always one of the best sources in the past but it just sucks this year. Too much focus on the party and too little on the actual horse race and its contenders. Maybe they got a different webmaster.
April 20th, 2010 at 1:20 pm
Great report, especially mentioning many of the factors that can make or break Derby success for a horse. I also love it when the stations show the workouts.
April 20th, 2010 at 1:48 pm
If you think the Derby site is bad, try the Kentucky Oaks site. Usually, the Oaks site is a mirror of the Derby site, with a different color scheme. And that is the case this year as well, with one notable exception: They don’t have any of the possible Oaks starters anywhere on the site!!! Instead, it’s Ladies Getaway, Partners with a purpose, Celebrities, and other b.s. that has nothing to do with the race itself…do they realize that they make a ton of $$$ off people betting that day, and with the Oaks going to have a full field, the need for info is even greater.
April 20th, 2010 at 1:56 pm
the kentucky derby web site is awful. did that under covers boss guy Carfstangen get hired to work on it?
April 20th, 2010 at 3:46 pm
Around 2006-07 CD decided to cut costs and the racing information - particularly the KY Derby/Oaks web site - was a casualty. In the past they would archive the web sites each year so you could look back at all the information and videos. I assume they stopped that out of embarrassment.
Any predictions on the next ADW CD conquers?
April 20th, 2010 at 3:48 pm
It’s not just the Kentucky Derby site at fault this year. HRTVlive,com is offering videos of the works starting next Saturday - for a cost. Churchill Downs offers a daily video “report” by Mike Welsch of the works he has observed that day. Although thorough and fair, the report is subjective and allows us no eyes-on judgement opportunity.
Once upon a time, we were able to watch the works live on TVG. Both channels are, of course, an additional expense to most families, since they are either expanded cable or special sports tiers. Is there a valid reason that NBC, ABC and CBS air only the Triple Crown now?
The public seems to be picking up the cost of the industry’s “marketing program.” That leaves us less for wagering. Let’s get some PR experts into the horseracing industry. They know how to keep the business alive.
April 20th, 2010 at 5:04 pm
ESPN, earlier in this decade, had their live Breakfast at Churchill program which I enjoyed. Airing every day on the week leading up to the Derby the early morning hosted program (7 am so) had shedrow interviews and showed workouts.
Then again they also used to air Wire to Wire as well as carried the Kentucky Oaks on one of their channels as well. Today horse racing seems to be persona non grata at ESPN.
It’s shame that CDI decided to gut their Derby/Oaks web page as they have. The web team deserved props for what they had done for a time with the information current and histporic. Although nothing could even begin to hit the rock bottom the Preakness web page has long been scraping.
April 20th, 2010 at 8:13 pm
You’ve got that right, about the ridiculously useless and inane Churchill Downs website.
Keep trying to use it, Ray, and you’ll look like George Foreman in the 12th round in Zaire, that’s guaranteed!
What kind of slack-jawed hayseeds run that thing, anyway? Why voluntarily advertise that you haven’t any idea how a competent website is assembled and what it features?
Thank God it’s only necessary to go to it once a year, and occasionally, not even that often.
April 20th, 2010 at 11:37 pm
No kidding the Derby & Oaks sites are awful. Why are the filly contenders not even listed on the Oaks site? It looks like they think the Oaks is a hat contest instead of a horse race.
Last year one of the Derby site bloggers was complaining that people don’t pay enough attention to the fillies, so CD responds by having an Oaks site with no mention of the fillies. I wonder what genius decided that was the best way to get people to pay more attention to them.
Anyway, thanks for the info on what to watch for in the horses/trainerspeak leading up to the Derby.
April 21st, 2010 at 1:13 am
I thought that was really interesting. Thanks for the unusual post. I’ll keep following this.
April 21st, 2010 at 12:34 pm
Phenomenal post - and solid domain by the way!
April 22nd, 2010 at 8:22 am
Triple Crown Insider, has some of the works posted on their wesite……….
April 25th, 2010 at 11:55 am
I find myself returning to your weblog only because you have plenty of excellent insights and also you are already at this a while, that’s very exciting and tells me you know your stuff.
April 27th, 2010 at 8:46 am
Super!!! Loving your articles. Many Thanks!.