What are the odds that there would be a tie at the top of any poll with 28 participating voters (unfortunately one of our voters was unable to weigh in this week)? Pretty good, it appears. Unlike other polls out there, the Paulick Derby Index shows a dead lock for first with Rebel Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky and Fountain of Youth victor and likely Florida Derby favorite Eskendereya sharing the top line. And it’s probably pretty appropriate as both horses fought off impressive fields to win their respective prep races.

Speaking of the Rebel Stakes, it was a tale of two finishers in place and show positions. Noble’s Promise’s performance, despite being nosed at the end, shot the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile third-place colt to the number four position this week while wise guy favorite Dublin dropped to nine in our poll. But with the tendency for third-place finishers to be forgotten in polls like these, it is a strong sign of the continued belief in this early favorite as a true Derby contender.

San Felipe wire-to-wire winner Sidney’s Candy rocketed from nineteenth to fifth after an eye-opening outing with second place finisher Interactif getting back on the big board at number twelve. And Tampa Bay Derby winner Odysseus became the new number six while previously unheralded Schoolyard Dreams went from zero votes to fifteenth after being narrowly beaten.

Sadly, early favorite Buddy’s Saint leads the list of those who dropped off our rankings after being pulled from the Derby Trail. The list includes American Lion, Dave in Dixie, A Little Warm and Uptowncharlybrown.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

I don’t think there has been a stronger race for 3-year-olds in 2010 than Saturday’s Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park and I am convinced that the three finishers—winner Lookin At Lucky, runner-up Noble’s Promise and third-place finisher Dublin—will be serious contenders in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby come May 1.

I know the Beyer Speed Figures came up much lower for Lookin At Lucky (97) than they did for last month’s Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya (106), but if the “best” Beyers determined the Derby winner, wouldn’t Andy Beyer, the creator of those figures, have a much better record of picking winners in the Kentucky Derby than he has over the years? I’m not putting the knock on Andy or his figures, because I believe they are a great handicapping tool in day-to-day races. But the Kentucky Derby is unlike any other race on the calendar, and there are a multitude of other factors that have to be considered beyond a simple numeric figure.

The top three Rebel finishers were all Grade 1 winners, and they all ran to their form. Lookin At Lucky had a lot of trouble midway down the backstretch when Robby Albarado aboard Noble’s Promise did some race riding to keep Garrett Gomez and Lucky boxed in and the latter had to jump over his heels to avoid possible disaster. That move displayed Lookin At Lucky’s great athleticism, and his recovery from the incident showed how determined he was to get back into the race and wear Noble’s Promise down at the wear. Dublin was wide most of the way. And Noble’s Promise never stopped running, though for the third consecutive start he finished just behind Lookin At Lucky.

The victory by Odysseus in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby was not visually impressive. The Malibu Moon colt got a good trip but started to fade around the final turn, only to re-rally in deep stretch to snatch the victory from Sam F. Davis runner-up Schoolyard Dreams and front-runner Super Saver, winner of last year’s Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and the only graded stakes winner in the field. I think the front-runners tired more than Odysseus came again. I want to see him face tougher competition before jumping on his bandwagon.

Finally, there was the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, where a strategic decision to take American Lion off the pace virtually gave the race to the front-running Sidney’s Candy, who got away to an uncontested lead and easy fractions throughout. It’s hard to learn much from that kind of a race, but I’ve decided to take Dave in Dixie out of my top 10 after he failed to show any late kick.

1. Eskendereya. If Lookin At Lucky’s Rebel win was so impressive, why have I left Eskendereya on the top of my list? Because I believe the Giant’s Causeway colt is on the way up for trainer Todd Pletcher, while Lookin At Lucky has achieved close to his full potential. We’ll see if he can back that claim up with another strong performance this week in the Florida Derby.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Trainer Bob Baffert said the Smart Strike colt reminds him a lot of Silver Charm—he gives everything he’s got in every start. He proved that in winning the Rebel after the scary incident at the half-mile pole. Baffert hasn’t fully wound up Lookin At Lucky, as the Rebel was his 2010 debut.

3. Noble’s Promise. Cuvee colt proved he’s not just a turf or synthetic track horse, running his eyeballs out in his first try on dirt and in his 2010 debut. I don’t see a lot of stamina in that pedigree (out of a Clever Trick mare), but this is a hard-trying horse in the hands of the very capable Ken McPeek.

4. Dublin. I doubt that trainer Wayne Lukas was discouraged by the Afleet Alex colt’s third-place finish in the Rebel. He was wide all the way and I’m sure Lukas has not brought him to his peak physically in mid-March. Look for further improvement as May 1 approaches.

5. Rule. Roman Ruler colt getting the kid gloves treatment from Pletcher after getting all the graded stakes money he needed as a 2-year-old to crack the Derby line-up.  Possible for Florida Derby but more likely in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

6. Discreetly Mine. Another Pletcher Derby contender, this one pointing for the Louisiana Derby a week from Saturday. Comes off an easy win there in the Risen Star Stakes and will be favored to repeat.

7. Conveyance. Heading to New Mexico for the rich Sunland Park Derby, where Mine That Bird prepped last year. Trainer Baffert has had some success in New Mexico, having sent Real Quiet there en route to his Kentucky Derby victory.

8. Awesome Act. Moved up on my list by virtue of some of the disappointing performances in the San Felipe Stakes. If he can do in the Wood Memorial what he showed in the Gotham Stakes he’ll be a legit contender for British-based trainer Jeremy Noseda.

9. Sidney’s Candy. Tough to gauge how good he is because of the way the San Felipe was run, getting an easy lead and setting soft fractions in his first try around two turns, winning over turf horse Interactif. Candy Ride colt out of a Storm Cat mare is trained by John Sadler, a dominant trainer in California who is little known on the national stage.

10.  Odysseus. Showed determination in deep stretch, getting up to win Tampa Bay Derby after looking like a sure loser at the top of the stretch. Were those front-runners backing up or did Malibu Moon colt find a second wind?

Tags: Awesome Act, blind luck, Caracortado, Conveyance, D'Funnybone, Discreetly Mine, Drosselmeyer, dublin, Eightyfiveinafifty, Eskendereya, Interactif, jackson bend, lookin at lucky, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Paulick Derby Index, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, Rule, Schoolyard Dreams, Sidney's Candy, Stay Put, Super Saver, Vinery LTD

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