PAULICK DERBY INDEX brought to you by Vinery LTD: DELAYS HURTING THE TRAIL
By Ray Paulick
Is it just me, or is this year’s Triple Crown trail looking more and more like a Winter Olympics short-track speedskating race, with lots of false starts, problems with the racing surface, unpredictable results, and a narrow focus on two principals from the East and West.
In short-track it was Apolo Anton Ohno of the U.S. and Lee Ho-Suk of Korea who seemed to be in contention in every heat. In horse racing, it’s the West’s Bob Baffert and the East’s Todd Pletcher getting most of the exposure.
There are no false starts in horse racing, but there have been several postponements due to weather, the Feb 27 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita being the latest of several races delayed this winter because of rough weather or bad track conditions. The Sham has been rescheduled for this Saturday, the same day the Gotham Stakes takes place at Aqueduct.
(Click here for the schedule of races leading up to the May 1 Kentucky Derby.)
The following weekend is when we should get a much better read on some of the top contenders, in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs, and Santa Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Of particular interest is the Rebel Stakes, where Baffert is pointing 2009 Eclipse Award winner and once-beaten Lookin At Lucky in what would be his debut on a conventional dirt track. All of his previous races have been on synthetics in California. Among his anticipated rivals is the Pletcher-trained Super Saver, winner of last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. Both horses will be making their 2010 debuts.
While Baffert has won three Kentucky Derbys and Pletcher is searching for his first, there’s another trainer with a little Triple Crown experience who could have a say in the outcome of the Rebel. That would be D. Wayne Lukas, who trains Dublin, runner-up to the Baffert-trained Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. The sage turf writer Bill Nack warned me not to overlook Lukas when he has a good one, and the son of Afleet Alex certainly has ability, as shown last year when winning the Hopeful at Saratoga and in his 2010 debut at Oaklawn.
The Tampa Bay Derby has developed into an important prep, too, and of great interest in that race will be Padua Stables Odysseus, winner of a Tampa Bay allowance last month by 15 lengths. The San Felipe will be a chance to sort out the West Coast’s top synthetic runners, but it won’t really answer any questions about their chances of winning on dirt at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report
Savvy businesses recognize value. Advertise in the Paulick Report.
Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick
Tags: A Little Warm, Aikenite, American Lion, Backtalk, blind luck, Buddy's Saint, Caracortado, Cardiff Giant, Connemara, Conveyance, D'Funnybone, Dave in Dixie, Discreetly Mine, Drosselmeyer, dublin, Eightyfiveinafifty, Eskendereya, Fly Down, Interactif, jackson bend, Lentenor, lookin at lucky, Maximus Ruler, Noble's Promise, Northern Giant, Odysseus, Paulick Derby Index, Radiohead, Rule, Sidney's Candy, Stay Put, Super Saver, Tempted to Tapit, Tiz Chrome, Uptowncharlybrown, Vale of York, Vinery LTD, William's Kitten
March 2nd, 2010 at 1:29 pm
Super Saver is getting geared up. He had another really good work yesterday. I have a funny feeling Super Saver stays in sunny FLA and runs in the Tampa Derby.
March 2nd, 2010 at 3:30 pm
I see all but three writers picked Lookin at Lucky or Eskendereya. Those two are jinxed for sure now.
My absolute favorite writer quote from last year: “Mine That Bird: Lowest rated horse in the field by any standards. Stay away.”
March 2nd, 2010 at 4:14 pm
It will be Lukas to make a huge comeback. He always does it.
March 2nd, 2010 at 4:50 pm
As has been published elsewhere William’s Kitten is off the trail for the Derby with a suspensory issue. Depending upon the success with the hyperbaric chamber a Belmont Stakes return would still be aggressive.
Good to see that Cardiff Giant is still being cited in the top 25 but he should be higher. He’s ranked 30th with graded stakes earnings and has only been off the board once in his life.
Eightyfiveinafifty is still being mentioned but why? He doesn’t appear to be going into the G3 Gotham let alone the G1 Wood. The connections may try to the G3 Bay Shore on April 3 but that’s unlikely to provide even the winner enough graded money to get into the Derby.