The more things change in the PDI, the more they stay the same at the top as our top three stay in place for another week. After Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy, fluctuation is the name of the game. A strange weekend of results have left many of our voters scratching their heads with support for 28 different horses in a graded stakes earnings field that seems pretty well set.

The biggest losers of this weekend were Odysseus whose bone chip has taken him off the trail and Noble’s Promise whose connections have indicated a possibility he won’t run for the roses despite shipping him to Churchill anyways. This news has dropped the once perennial top five pick to tied for 10th in this week’s Paulick Derby Index brought to you by Vinery LTD.

On the plus side, previously unknowns Stately Victor and Line of David have both appeared on the PDI for the first time all season. After unlikely victories in the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby, they have certainly punched their tickets for Louisville. But our voters do seem skeptical of their chances, dropping them in 16th and 17th place respectively. And a strong second place finish in the Arkansas Derby has thrust Super Saver back into the top ten after being dropped to 17th the week before.

By Ray Paulick
Three of the last six winners of the Kentucky Derby were the betting favorites in the race, though none of them were bet down the way Eskendereya is expected to be following his crushing victories in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Mike Battaglia, who makes the morning line for Churchill Downs, said he’ll install the son of Giant’s Causeway at 2-1 or 5-2 and thinks the public could bet him down to as low as 8-5, which would make Eskendereya the shortest-priced Derby favorite since Arazi, who finished eighth at 9-10 odds in the 1992 renewal. Only one horse since then, Point Given, fifth at 9-5 odds in 2001, has been less than 2-1 in the betting.

Backing favorites in the Kentucky Derby has been a dicey proposition, with only 16 of the last 60 (26%) betting favorites being victorious. That’s considerably less than the 33% standard for winning favorites, but the Derby is different and more difficult for two reasons: it’s the first chance horses have to race at the distance of a mile and a quarter, and the field size for the Derby is almost always larger than a typical American horse race. So perhaps 26% winning favorites isn’t such a bad figure after all.

Consider also that there were zero winning favorites in the 1980s and ‘90s. In the 1970s, when we saw three Triple Crown winners in Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed, there were six favorites that won the Kentucky Derby. Since 2000, four of the 10 Derby winners were favorites: Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Smarty Jones in 2004, Street Sense in 2007, and Big Brown in 2008.

Is the year the longest Triple Crown drought in history will end?  Sir Barton is credited with being the first Triple Crown winner in 1919, and he was followed by Gallant Fox in 1930, Omaha in 1935, and War Admiral in 1937. There were four Triple Crown winners in the 1940s—Whirlaway in ’41, Count Fleet in ’43, Assault in ’46 and Citation in ’48—but then none until Secretariat in 1973, a gap of 25 years. Four years later, Seattle Slew won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes, and Affirmed followed up by sweeping the series in 1978. It’s been 32 years, and though we’ve had 11 horses since then take the first two legs, none has been able to finish the job.
Could this be the year?

Eskendereya certainly has a great deal in his favor: excellent cruising speed, versatility and athleticism, and a pedigree that suggests he can handle a distance of ground. But he faces some strong challenges, not the least of which will come from last year’s 2-year-old champion, Lookin At Lucky.

1. Eskendereya. Interesting move by trainer Todd Pletcher to send the son of Giant’s Causeway back to Florida’s Palm Meadows training center after he won the Wood Memorial in New York. Can’t blame Pletcher for trying something a little different after so many previous efforts to win the Kentucky Derby have failed.

2. Lookin At Lucky. If any horse has been through the gauntlet of challenges you might find with a huge field on Kentucky Derby day, it’s the Bob Baffert-trained 2-year-old champion. He’s had plenty of racing experience, competed in front of big crowds, and had more than his share of traffic problem, yet always shows up and gives 100%.

3. Sidney’s Candy.  Nothing would surprise me, because there are some big unanswered questions regarding the John Sadler-trained son of Candy Ride. First, he’s only competed on synthetic tracks since debuting at Del Mar last July. Second, his two front-running victories around two turns in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby were accomplished without any pressure on the lead. He’s shown he can rate on the front end, but how will he respond to pressure?

4. Dublin. Ran a creditable race in the Arkansas Derby, his third good though non-winning effort of the spring. Look for trainer D. Wayne Lukas to have the son of Afleet Alex in peak condition for the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs.

5. American Lion. Seems to be best racing on the front end, as he showed in the Illinois Derby, but doesn’t look like the speed of the speed in the Derby line-up. Tiznow colt should not be overlooked entirely.

6. Line of David. Late bloomer by Lion Heart comes into the Derby off three straight winning performances, including a maiden race in mid-February. Trainer John Sadler has a strong pair of Kentucky Derby contenders and is overdue to make a splash on the national scene after being an increasingly major force in California racing in recent years. Problem with Line of David may be his running style in what appears to be a speed-heavy lineup.

7. Ice Box. Remember the Florida Derby? Long time ago, wasn’t it? Ice Box benefits by being a pure closer in a race with lots of early speed, but I’d prefer to have seen another race out of the son of Pulpit between his upset in the Florida Derby in mid-March and the Kentucky Derby on May 1.

8. Rule. His stock may have shifted downward after Pleasant Prince, the horse who nearly won the Florida Derby (won  by Ice Box, with Rule third), ran so poorly in the Toyota Blue Grass. But the Blue Grass has become almost a throw-out race as far as offering meaningful results in recent years. Rule has probably had the softest path to the Kentucky Derby of any Pletcher horse since winning the Delta Jackpot last December.

9. Super Saver. Son of Maria’s Mon should benefit from his race in the Arkansas Derby, where he showed an ability to rate just off the lead. Didn’t have enough closing kick to get the job done against Line of David, but has been a consistent performer since debuting at Saratoga last summer and has an important win over the Churchill Downs track in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

10. Stately Victor. Where has this horse been hiding the last seven months since breaking his maiden at Saratoga? Is this son of Ghostzapper similar to the late-developing Derby winner Charismatic, who found his best stride at Keeneland in the Lexington Stakes, or is he just the latest in a line of puzzling Blue Grass Stakes winners? I’d vote for the latter.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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Tags: A Little Warm, American Lion, Awesome Act, blind luck, Caracortado, Conveyance, D'Funnybone, Dean's Kitten, Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine, Drosselmeyer, dublin, Endorsement, Eskendereya, Homeboykris, Ice Box, Interactif, jackson bend, Line of David, lookin at lucky, Mission Impazible, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Paulick Derby Index, Paulick Report, Pleasant Prince, Ray Paulick, Rule, Setsuko, Sidney's Candy, Stately Victor, Super Saver, Vinery LTD

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