PAULICK DERBY INDEX brought to you by VINERY LTD: A CLEAR FAVORITE
Unlike most polls, the Paulick Derby Index had no change in the top two from last week as we already had Eskendereya in the one position. Of course, the gap widened after Lookin at Lucky's troubled trip in the Santa Anita Derby. And despite the dominating victory by Sidney's Candy over Lucky, he was only moved up to the third position perhaps indicating that most of our voters acknowledged the lack of a frontrunner to challenge the Candy Ride colt.
Caracortado and Awesome Act had the steepest falls while still on our list with fourth and third place finishes in the Wood and Santa Anita Derby respectively. Schoolyard Dreams, Discreetly Mine and Pleasant Prince all fell off the top 20 and while the first two came up short in their Derby prep races Pleasant Prince seems to have just been forgotten since his final prep is actually this weekend in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Brand new to the list is Setsuko who made a late charge to finish second in Santa Anita. Premiering in the 15 hole, voters chose quality over likelihood since his $180,000 in graded stakes cash has him currently on the outside looking in. Former PDI colts Jackson Bend and American Lion are also back on the list after impressive performances in the Wood and Illinois Derby.
The Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Illinois Derby helped give us a better understanding of some of the contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby.
First, we have a clear favorite for the May 1 Run for the Roses in the Giant’s Causeway colt Eskendereya, who came from just off the pace at Aqueduct to win the Wood in a manner every bit as convincing as his wire-to-wire romp at Gulfstream Park in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes. The Todd Pletcher trained colt does not have to carry his racetrack around with him. It was a flawless performance and gives Pletcher his strongest Kentucky Derby starter ever.
We also learned that Lookin At Lucky hasn’t been very lucky in his last two starts, getting into tight situations that nearly caused him to go down, and take with him trainer Bob Baffert’s best chance to win a fourth Kentucky Derby. But in defeat, Lookin At Lucky gained additional admirers for his tenacity and gameness after getting stopped suddenly on the final turn.
We already knew from the San Felipe Stakes the John Sadler-trained Sidney’s Candy could win around two turns going soft fractions, but we learned the Candy Ride colt had no trouble with the extra sixteenth of a mile in the nine-furlong Santa Anita Derby.
At Hawthorne in Chicago, we learned not to give up just yet on American Lion, who showed he may like conventional dirt tracks more than synthetics by winning the Illinois Derby for trainer Eoin Harty.
There’s more to learn this weekend, but no matter the results of the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, no one is going to displace Eskendereya from the favorite’s role at Churchill Downs May 1.
1. Eskendereya. If I had to look for a reason to not like his winning run in the Wood, it might be that the competition wasn’t that strong. Awesome Act beat a weak field in the Gotham Stakes and Schoolyard Dreams was nosed out in a Tampa Bay Derby field questionable in quality. Still, that was a memorable triumph in what I think traditionally is the most important final prep before the Kentucky Derby.
2. Lookin At Lucky. Got off to a poor start in the Santa Anita Derby, then was put in a spot on the inside by Garrett Gomez that could lead to trouble—and it did. But I wasn’t expecting him to win the Santa Anita Derby, even without the trouble. Two of Bob Baffert’s previous Kentucky Derby winners (Silver Charm and Real Quiet) came off good non-winning performances at Santa Anita, and I would qualify the Smart Strike colt’s in that same category.
3. Sidney’s Candy. Can’t ignore this colt as a legitimate threat, even though he’s gotten away with very soft fractions in both of his two-turn stakes victories at Santa Anita. I can’t imagine he’ll the same type of pace on Derby day.
4. Noble’s Promise. Saturday’s Arkansas Derby would be a good time for the Cuvee colt to step up with a breakout win that shows he can do more than compete at the top level. Ken McPeek has had some bad luck at Oaklawn and is overdue to come out on the winning side of a photo there.
5.Dublin. Should advance off his third-place Rebel finish to Lookin At Lucky and Noble’s Promise in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby for D. Wayne Lukas. Doesn’t need to win but has to keep moving in a forward direction.
6. American Lion. Illinois Derby was Tiznow colt’s last chance to make the Kentucky Derby field, and he really seemed to relish the change in surface to dirt. Bodes well for a decent showing at Churchill Downs, though victory would be a longshot.
7. Ice Box. Certainly not taking a convention route to the Kentucky Derby off a long layoff following his upset of the Florida Derby. As Nick Zito has said, this is when 3-year-olds improve, so I can’t rule him out completely.
8. Rule. Third-place finisher in the Florida Derby is one of the reasons Sidney’s Candy won’t have an easy time of it on the lead at Churchill Downs. Todd Pletcher may want to see the colt rate from off the lead, but Rule might have the final say.
9. Mission Impazible. Part of the Magnificent Seven or whatever the Pletcher starters will be called for the Kentucky Derby. Deserves to be there off his win in the Louisiana Derby, but seems unlikely to win.
10 Awesome Act. Looked like he was ready to pounce on the lead in the Wood Memorial on the turn for home, but looked helpless against Eskendereya. Awesome Again colt threw a shoe at the start, but there’s no way of knowing how much of an impact that had on the result. My opinion: not enough to think he’ll reserve the order of finish next time out.
Tags: A Little Warm, Aikenite, American Lion, Awesome Act, blind luck, Caracortado, Conveyance, D'Funnybone, Dean's Kitten, Discreetly Mine, Drosselmeyer, dublin, Endorsement, Eskendereya, Ice Box, Interactif, jackson bend, lookin at lucky, Make Music for Me, Mission Impazible, Noble's Promise, Odysseus, Paulick Derby Index, Pleasant Prince, Rule, Schoolyard Dreams, Setsuko, Sidney's Candy, Super Saver, Vinery LTD
April 6th, 2010 at 1:33 pm
Maybe the race horses of today are faster at sprints and slower at distances than 30-40 years ago. Eskendereya’s 10 length win looked superficially impressive, but the slow fractions of the Wood Mem and the slow final time (which barely shaded 1:50) would have made him an outright longshot in the Derby in those days. It does appear true that the track seemed a little slow. The final time for the Excelsior was significantly slower than Eskendereya. And, I’m not confident that he will lose the Derby. But with his expected odds so low, I will look for someone to beat him.
April 6th, 2010 at 2:11 pm
Todd Pletcher’s 0-24 right , so his ROI needs to be a 25-1 shot right. No need to say more.
As Harvey Pack says , ” MAY THE HORSE BE WITH YOU .”
April 6th, 2010 at 2:50 pm
FourCats should know that time only counts when you are in jail..
April 6th, 2010 at 3:02 pm
john roark: I’ve always disagreed with that statement. Time does not count once a race is over but counts a lot when handicapping for who will win in the future.
April 6th, 2010 at 3:48 pm
Everyone has Eskendereya as their top horse ? Based on what ? Beating a weak group in the Wood ? He hasn’t faced the best horses like Noble’s Promise and Lookin At Lucky. You are all a bunch of rookies. Try handicapping and not just following the pack because of a slow win vs. very weak competition.
April 6th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
Jesus Horse (formerly known as Eskendereya) has some significant strikes against him, not the least of which is called “Pletcher Derby Curse”. Here are a few quotes about his previous over-hyped starters before their infamous Derby flops:
“This is the most legitimate mile-and-a-quarter horse I’ve had to go to the Derby . He’s got all the right ingredients.” - Todd Pletcher talking about Bandini.
“….an indication Bandini is the horse who can end Pletcher’s 0-for-9 Derby record” - the Associated Press on Bandini’s Bluegrass win.
“The Great Bandini” - Steve Haskin, Bloodhorse
“Bandini is currently one of the favorites to win the race (Kentucky Derby).” Life Magazine, May 2005
“Among the best of his generation” - The Racing Post on Scat Daddy’s chances in the Kentucky Derby.
“looks fabulous” and “quite a Derby resume. The bay colt won the Sanford and the Champagne as a 2-year-old before his strong 3-year-old prep season.” - NBC on Scat Daddy’s chances.
“a serious contender for the Kentucky Derby” - Derby News on Scat Daddy
That’s merely a sampling of the accolades typically heaped on Pletcher Derby starters. Then the illustrious media is back at it again the following year no matter how many times or how badly he fails.
April 6th, 2010 at 4:40 pm
Noble’s Promise at 1 1/4 miles????? Not for me….If you had bet on Eskendereya in Feb you might like the price a little more
April 6th, 2010 at 4:56 pm
Problem with most trainers is, in an attempt to win every race leading up to the Derby, they gut the horse getting there. Few trainers use a race to set a horse up for his best effort in a subsequent race. Too many “untrained owners” who think they need to win every race and pressure trainers to do so. I might add, the media hasn’t figured it out either. They still focus on the favorites and are left with egg on their faces when an outsider wins that they dismissed and gave little or no air time to before the race. Makes me tired!
April 6th, 2010 at 11:20 pm
Ann Ah: Your letter is WONDERFUL. Made my day (just home from a funeral; your timing is perfect).
I’m not an anti-Pletcher guy. It’s the media hacks who have earned contempt.
Every spring, here come the leaves on the trees and the riotous color of the bushes blooming.
And every spring, here are these g-d’d writers throwing more Pletcher Compost (vintage 2001, 2002, 2006, 2008, etc.) on their stories,
“This time, damn it, I mean it, he gonna win the Derby!”
The expiration date on the compost warranty would then always expire on the morning of that year’s Derby.
Which is why “Everything’s Coming Up Roses” has been a song never song by Pletcher.
You also got two jokes for the price of one, with the “Jesus” crack.
The New Yorker magazine’s first editor, Harold Ross, was obsessed with finding the Office Manger of His Dreams.
He was looking for a “genius.” Soon, the word got corrupted into “Jesus.” Meanwhile, he hired about 30 of these doomed-from-the-start poor souls who Ross would then lose faith in almost immediately.
This went on for about ten years. One day, no more Jesuses were on the payroll, having been replaced in the late 1930’s by a writer who later, in WWII, was sent packing back to the States after his hallucinations resulting his sending out bulletins across the Pacific that a high-ranking U.S. military officer was a Japanese spy.
Bill B.: You’re right. You’d have to get at least 40-1 to compensate for the losses racked up by betting on Pletcher horses #1-#24, in years past.
April 7th, 2010 at 7:25 am
Horsedoc… I couldn’t agree more with your comment, and made the same argument in a Triple Crown Insider video urging people to pay attention to horses other than the winners in their prep races: http://tci.paulickreport.com/final-derby-preps-improvement-good-finishes-are-key-not-wins/183/
Having said that, I still have Eskendereya at No. 1.
April 7th, 2010 at 7:32 am
I simply can’t believe how many are on the Esky bandwagon and are not looking at the weak group he beat in the Wood. Not a single G1 or G2 winner in the bunch and most were optional claiming winners. To put this horse on top of Lookin At Lucky and Noble’s Promise is just crazy and unearned. Pletcher is 0 for 24 in the Derby never bet into a losing streak !!!
April 7th, 2010 at 7:40 am
Super Saver on Saturday. Nobles Promise is a very good horse but cannot get the distance and LAL continues to run in trouble, I see the came thing happening in the Derby. Would have liked to have seen more of an honest pace in both the Wood and SA. Winstar holds all the cards on the pace and etc……….
April 7th, 2010 at 8:05 am
what is becoming obvious week after week of 20 + opinions is that this concept does not necessarily bring any more insight than a single well-informed one.
while each pundit on this survey deserves respect for the body of their work, lumping them together devalues each individual viewpoint, in my opinion.
you hear something 20 times it stops sounding “original”.
this repetitiveness works against the concept of privledging opinions by those who have titles and status within the sport.
i’m not so sure collectively we should pay any more attention to your hand-picked group than the guy or gal sitting next to us on the barstool.
saying that, i still look at it every week!
April 7th, 2010 at 10:54 am
I’m delighted! It’s refreshing to see someone very knowledgeable about what they do. Keep up the great work and I’ll return for more!Cheers!
April 9th, 2010 at 2:44 pm
Mission Impazible is being overlooked
Should be a great price Watch Out!
April 12th, 2010 at 9:56 am
Mission Impazible baby………
April 13th, 2010 at 1:49 pm
Everyone is forgetting about Rule as well. If they can get him to rate a bit, he will be a beast. Lukas also has a knack for dropping from the clouds to sweep away the roses. If he can get a decent jock on Dublin, he could suprise too, he is very consistent. That said, Esky has “looked” the most dominant, and while he has been facing weaker competition, he has also been winning by wide margins under hand rides. I still think Lookin at Lucky is the most talented horse, with a very cocky rider that thinks he can get out of any jam. What I am trying to say is this Derby is a handicapers nightmare. Aren’t they all?