PAULICK BELMONT INDEX brought to you by Vinery LTD: DEFINING GREATNESS
Despite several defections from last week’s projected field, our voters kept the top three of Ice Box, First Dude and Fly Down in order. Dublin’s departure (previously ranked sixth) means that no horse will run in all three Triple Crown races since 2001. And Setsuko ankle inflammation kept what many thought would be a good betting choice from breaking our list.
Outside of our top three, Drosselmeyer was the only other projected Belmont entry to receive a first place vote. New to the chart is Spangled Star and Yawanna Twist while also dropping from the Paulick Belmont Index is Tim Ice’s New Madrid.
By Ray Paulick
The Belmont Stakes has helped define greatness in the Thoroughbred. One need only look back to Secretariat’s incredible 31-length victory in 1973, or the gut-check win by Affirmed over Alydar in 1978, the last year American racing has experienced the glow of a Triple Crown hero. Since then, the Belmont, at a mile and a half the longest of the three Triple Crown races, has been more about heartbreak. It has been where Triple Crown dreams have been destroyed.
Spectacular Bid, perhaps the greatest modern-day 3-year-old not to win the Triple Crown, was unlucky to lose the Belmont in 1979, getting a poorly judged ride from an overconfident and young jockey, Ron Franklin, and also said to have had a possible foot injury from a safety pin the morning of the race. He would have been the fourth Triple Crown winner of the 1970s, following in the footsteps of Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed. Some complained it was getting almost too easy to sweep the series.
Then we were mesmerized by trainer Woody Stephens and his dominating run of five consecutive Belmont Stakes wins, from 1982 to 1986. It’s one of those achievements that grows larger with time.
From 1987 to 2008, nine horses came to the Belmont with a chance to become the sport’s 12th Triple Crown winner, and all failed to achieve that goal. There were some sound defeats (Bet Twice over Alysheba in 1987, Easy Goer over Sunday Silence in 1989, Sarava over War Emblem in 2002), some frightening moments (Charismatic suffering a near catastrophic injury at the wire in 1999, Big Brown being pulled up in 2008), but more often than not game efforts that came up just a little short (Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, Funny Cide in 2003, Smarty Jones in 2004).
We won’t have any of those moments in the 2010 Belmont Stakes, with no Triple Crown on the line and the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners absent from the starting lineup. We will have an exciting day, the kind of top-class racing program that has become synonymous with Belmont day, and a Grade 1 contest that will be a true handicapping challenge.
Will New York’s own Hall of Fame conditioner, Nick Zito, win his third Belmont Stakes, with either Ice Box or Fly Down, a powerful duo, and join an elite group of trainers with three or more wins in the classic? Is the year and the race where Dale Romans, trainer of First Dude, gets a breakthrough victory on the Triple Crown stage.
My money will be on Zito. He is to New York racing in the 1990s and beyond what Woody Stephens was a quarter century ago. While some horsemen look at the Belmont as a race of declining importance, Zito sees it as New York’s big dance, and it’s one he’d rather not sit out.
Tags: affirmed, alydar, Bank the EIght, belmont stakes, Bushwhacked, Devil May Care, Drosselmeyer, First Dude, Fly Down, Game On Dude, Ice Box, jackson bend, Make Music for Me, Paulick Belmont Index, Spangled Star, spectacular bid, Stately Victor, Stay Put, Triple Crown, Uptowncharlybrown, Vinery LTD, woody stephens, Yawanna Twist
May 25th, 2010 at 12:19 pm
When the Belmont Stakes gets flak because it’s too long, or isn’t meaningful if there is no Triple Crown on the line, I’m sure those comments are made by people not interested in the Thoroughbred breed. A glance at the list of winners is a who’s who of wonderful sires. The Belmont truly is a test of a champion, and a source of the foundation of the breed. From Commando to Man o’ War, Nashua, Damascus, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, A.P. Indy, Thunder Gulch, Lemon Drop Kid, Birdstone and Afleet Alex (the latter two who have done very well with their first crops). . . And of course the many I didn’t mention. . . It’s a wonderful testament to the race.
May 25th, 2010 at 1:11 pm
Ditto above! I love the Belmont, always have. The American Triple Crown, with its mile and half final race, keeps American thoroughbreds from being reduced to a breed of pure sprinters.
May 25th, 2010 at 1:14 pm
I love the BELMONT>>ie: in 1949 i was standing in the paddock about 6 feet from “CAPOT” while John Gaver was putting the tack on…”CAPOT” never took his eyes off of me. i couldnt wait to get to the windows..With TED ATKINSON up & CAPOT went to the front & TED put them all asleep when he hit the first 6 f in 1:15 2/5 ….PALESTINIAN with Arcaro sulked & it was all over in the time of 2:30 I believe… CAPOT paid $13.20 . & that was a killing back in those good old days..
May 25th, 2010 at 1:50 pm
Great story, Eugene.
I love this race, and I love that Birdstone is making some noise as a sire.
May 25th, 2010 at 2:55 pm
NOW, this is sports writing. This is the first article that puts a POSITIVE spin on the Belmont. Again, as I have said many times before, it’s the sportswriter that is hurting racing. One positive article, and ten negative — how is racing to survive. Paulick concentrates on the positive aspects of the Belmont, making it eye opener to the new fans.
Too bad that all articles about racing are not about the positive. If sportswriters interviewed and USED the opinions of those who are interested in keeping racing the way it is, AND, using those SAME people as to their opinions on improving racing we would have a positive spin on the very same subject that is being used by “special interests” to throw a bad light on racing through sensationalism when mediocre infractions occur. Also, it would do well to explain, in plain language, what is being blown out of proportion as far as med’s. Talk to your “small” successful trainer about HIS observations about the overblown coverage of med’s — the ones that would be greatly impacted by nationalization, as per the big owner/breeder agenda’s. Do you have any idea how much is lost to the big operators every time a “small” operation, or, GELDING wins a graded stake? The steroid controversy was aimed at geldings, “no med’s is aimed at small operations with lesser horses. The big boys want IT ALL FOR THEMSELVES. You won’t see any more John Henry’s, Lava Man’s, Forego’s, Native Diver’s. Regulated Steroids are almost mandatory for a gelding, since he cannot produce testosterone. Remember, a gelding is castrated, whereas, human athletes ARE NOT!!. Mixing apples and oranges!! And nationalization would put a digger through the heart of mom and pop racing — the racing that provided the base of ALL RACING!!
May 25th, 2010 at 3:04 pm
One of my bosses told me not to complain
unless I made suggestions:
The Three year old thoroughbred is now too fragile
to make the triple crown relevant anymore.
The old school is waiting on a super freak to win
it so they can proudly stay on the sinking ship.
Limited 2 yr old racing
No Drugs
4 yr old triple Crown.
All suggestions because I am tired of my favorite
horses sidelined consistently. It is getting old.
The Triple Crown has lost its appeal unless a
super freak comes by, but I wouldn’t count on it.
May 25th, 2010 at 3:21 pm
Tapit, research has shown that working 2-year-olds builds the density of bone they need to race soundly at 3 and 4. Instead of “dumbing down” the crown, why not breed up the horse. Keep it at age 3. And I do agree that we need to dump all race-day drugs.
May 25th, 2010 at 3:33 pm
I love two year old racing.
May 25th, 2010 at 4:22 pm
The Two Year Old
An Introduction to the Fans/Horses:
Limited racing a BC win may not be key this year.
Three Year Old Campaign
The grand stage of racing which includes BC
A Four Year Old - The New TC
A May, June, July TC. By now there is a good horse to
breed to and some excited fans. Just have to wait till Oct for BC.
Five Years and beyond
The fan/horse relishes in their glory with each stakes win.
and a BC win would be extra nice.
I would love to stand the 1st Four Year Old TC Winner or least follow one.
That would be fun.
May 25th, 2010 at 4:59 pm
Thanks for a good article about the Belmont. I agree with Mr. Ray, Mr. Alex, Mr. Brad etc. Love Ice Box for this race, did from the first time I saw the thing, beautiful animal. Lookin’ forward to watching it run again.
Not sure I understand the last few comments. Would say more but feel an inexplicable urge to write haiku about my not-fragile 5YO with 35 starts under its girth which won another nice race last Saturday sans benefit of joint injections, therapeutic steroids, etc.
Someday I’m gonna grow a brain and figure out why the most expensive horses appear to have the highest vet bills. Maybe if I ever own a graded stakes horse all will be revealed?
May 25th, 2010 at 5:14 pm
Mr. Paulick,
Once again kudo’s on your Belmont stance, as well as your recent gutsy articles taking on the menace from the North. But in regards to the Belmont, it seems to me that there’s too many apologies and excuses being branded about in attempts to procure some form of “conciliation” in order to make Triple Crown winner’s more frequent. This is the last thing that horse racing needs. To diminish the achievements of the great athletes, some of which you mentioned- all of which we know- in order to placate those who contend the sport “needs” an immediate Crown winner to survive is in the slang form, a cop out. Suggestions the bar be lowered in relation to the Triple Crown Races would serve to dilute the accomplishments of the horses, trainers and owners whose talent and dedication brought them the sports pinnacle Triumph.
Certainly similar arguments must have been made in the late 60’s early 70’s, during the 25 year drought, just as three spectacular animals were about to achieve the Triple Crown feat in rather short order. As you duly noted, there have been several near misses in the recent past- and that in and of itself should make the hardest head able to understand that the Triple Crown can and will be won again.
The Belmont is the ultimate test, and this year’s race will be interesting, and Mr. Zito appears to be holding pocket aces. But a full Belmont field and a strong undercard will provide an exciting day of racing- regardless of this years rare occurance of the Derby and Preakness winner’s being MIA. So all should forget about changing this, and changing that-as a form of appeasement. The next great champion, trainer and owner(s) that achieve the ultimate goal deserve to do so without the inclusion of an asterick. And thus making the thrill and excitement of the next Triple Crown Winner taste as sweet as those that came before.
sk
sk
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May 25th, 2010 at 9:16 pm
The Belmont is my 2nd favorite TC race and I would hate to see it shorten.
However its been 32 years since the last winner and in that 32 years SO MUCH has changed: the breed, drugs, campaign routes. The TC winner should once again be seen as the highest reward in racing but it must be achievable, to keep the national interest. Once every 35 yrs won’t cut it.
There should be more incentive to keep the stars on the track not in the shed, this is one idea. A four yr old TC winner is much more impressive than a 3 yr old winner and many times more valuable at stud.
May 25th, 2010 at 11:28 pm
I thought Devil May Care (#11 on your list) was skipping the Belmont…pointing to the Mother Goose instead.
May 26th, 2010 at 7:46 am
It is interesting to see support for the Belmont Stakes. Ray Paulick states ‘The Belmont Stakes has helped define greatness in the Thoroughbred” and he is corrected in his assumption. Some things in horse racing should be “tamper proof”. Because of the death of common sense and the influx of superfluous additions from the gaming industry we are in a dangerous era of negative possiblities of dismantling the sport. through ignorance and a false sense of expediency. We see the erosion on a daily basis. The Belmont Stakes is a historic monument that challenges the vital branches of horse racing by providing an elusive obstacle that provides a true test of all of the athletes and contestants. Sure it is out of the norm. But normal isn’t what triggers the emotional ingredients that symbolizes our existence. “Tampering” is what brought a rapid demise to the standardbred industry when stupidity and ignorance prevailed in the 1970’s decision to neutralize that sport’s historic and diversified distances into one mile contests. It rapidly ceased to be considered a sport in the eyes of many! We see this mentality growing pervasive in some of thoroughbred racing’s most historic locations by individuals that have reached custodial responsibilities prematurely. Let’s hold fast to our traditions and history!
May 27th, 2010 at 8:03 am
I thought Jackson Bend was in the other two races? I also thought they were going to give the little guy a break. This really ticks me off. He is a good horse being run into the ground
for no good reason.