MEASURING BREEDERS’ CUP SUCCESS
There are many ways to look at this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships from a business and sporting standpoint, and not all examinations are going to lead to the same destination.
The most important question is whether or not the 2008 Breeders’ Cup was a success or failure. Was the decision to hold the Cup at a racetrack with a synthetic surface a wise move? Has the expansion of the world championships from eight races in one day to 14 races in two days helped or diluted the event?
How is success or failure of the Breeders’ Cup measured? Is it attendance, pari-mutuel handle, revenue, TV ratings, racing results, international participation?
It’s difficult to measure some of these factors because the circumstances of the Breeders’ Cup have changed so much between 2008 and previous years, rendering it an apples to oranges comparison. Making those comparisons even more challenging are the current economic conditions that have hit all levels of society this year, from Wall Street bankers to blue-collar workers. Virtually every industry is feeling a severe impact.
Putting that aside, last year’s Breeders’ Cup at Monmouth Park was the first time the event was stretched over two days, and handle totaled just over $147 million ($31.5 on the Friday program and $115.7 on Saturday) despite poor weather and messy track conditions (a near monsoon came through New Jersey during Friday’s program and the track was very sloppy on Saturday). This year’s two-day handle increased by only 5.5%, to $155.5 million ($47.9 million on Friday, $107.6 million on Saturday), despite perfect weather and the addition of three new Breeders’ Cup races. Comparisons are for the whole cards, including non-Breeders’ Cup races run at Monmouth Park last year and Santa Anita this year.
Steve Crist’s weekend blog at DRF.com (Friday, Saturday), which detailed the race-by-race betting figures for the last three years of the Breeders’ Cup, shows that handle dropped sharply on the races moved from the Saturday card in 2007 to Friday (Filly & Mare Turf, Juvenile Fillies, Ladies’ Classic) this year. That makes perfect sense, since there were fewer people betting Friday’s program this year than there were betting Saturday’s program last year. But there were five Breeders’ Cup races on Friday this year, when the all of the filly and mare races were packaged as "Filly Friday" or "Ladies Day," compared with three in 2007, leading to the increase in Friday-to-Friday comparisons.
Handle dropped virtually across the board on Saturday’s races this year, with the day’s total handle declining by 7%, from $115.7 million in 2007 to $107.6 million in 2008. It was the lowest handle on a Saturday Breeders’ Cup since 1999, when $100.3 million was bet on the races from Gulfstream Park.
Santa Anita’s on-track handle of $11.8 million was down almost 10% from the $12.7 million wagered on-track at Monmouth Park in 2007 and a steep decline of 33% from the 2006 Saturday Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs, when $18.3 million was bet on-track during the one-day event.
Saturday’s on-track business was the lowest for a Breeders’ Cup since 1997, when $11.2 million was wagered at Hollywood Park. The last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita, in 2003, one-day on-track handle totaled $16.3 million. This year’s two-day on-track handle was $18.7 million.
The economic climate has not been good for racing in 2008. Most major race meetings have experienced double-digit declines in business. For the Breeders’ Cup to increase handle from 2007 is an accomplishment, though not a major one when considering both the additional races and superior weather conditions.
It is difficult to say there has not been a dilution of the event based on the early evidence. Do the positive benefits outweigh any negatives? I think it’s too early to tell.
Attendance was up this year from 2007, but that should have been a no-brainer following the poor weather at Monmouth Park. Breeders’ Cup officials got greedy with ticket prices and, to their credit, have admitted as much. The increase in prices was outrageous, especially for the Friday program, and it is hoped they will be scaled back considerably next year.
The racing was spectacular on both days – and safe. More than a few people commented at the conclusion of the Breeders’ Cup that no one died or suffered any serious injuries, a sad commentary on the bumpy road the sport has been traveling in recent years. The Pro-Ride synthetic track was fast and safe, though it appeared to compromise some horses who had only raced on conventional dirt tracks and help those horses with synthetic track or turf experience.
Synthetic surfaces have increased the difficulty of handicapping, and running the traditional Breeders’ Cup dirt races on the Pro-Ride track may have led some big players to downsize their bets. The Classic, according to Crist’s figures, handled $24.3 million in bets this year, down from $30.1 million at Monmouth Park last year and $37.7 million at Churchill Downs in 2006.
The dominance of European horses was widely embraced by Breeders’ Cup officials, including president Greg Avioli, who sees international participation as the last, best hope for further growth in pari-mutuel handle. The success of Raven’s Pass and four other European-based winners on Saturday’s program will ensure enthusiastic participation from European horsemen when the races return to Santa Anita in 2009, but there is no guarantee that’s going to mean greater interest among horseplayers outside of North America. There is a conceivable backlash among American breeders who provide the financial foundation of the Breeders’ Cup program through foal and stallion nominations. Some of them view this as an American event, and they would be happier if the considerable purse money stayed in this country. On the other hand, those breeders who want to reach an international audience with their sale yearlings may cheer the success of European-based runners.
The Breeders’ Cup will conduct a post-mortem on the event to determine what worked and what didn’t. Many have said the Oak Tree Racing Association and Santa Anita did a terrific job from a logistical standpoint, and there may not be a more telegenic racing facility in America in late October than the "Great Race Place." There were many people critical of the decision to hold the event at Santa Anita in consecutive years, but those critics surely are fewer in number following this year’s Breeders’ Cup
Provided that no major changes are made in the format, holding the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita next year will be more of an apples to apples comparison, allowing Cup officials to assess whether or not the expansion from one day to two was a sound decision.
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Tags: Breeders' Cup, breeders' cup results, Breeders' Cup World Championships, business of racing, Greg Avioli, Horse Racing, monmouth park, oak tree racing association, pari-mutuel handle, pari-mutuel wagering, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, santa anita
October 27th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
[...] MEASURING BREEDERS’ CUP SUCCESS There are many ways to look at this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships from a business and sporting standpoint, and not all examinations are going to lead to the same destination. The most important question is whether or not the … [...]
October 27th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
I usually bet $1k or more on previous Cup races. This year $-0- and will never bet on the poly track until every race is run on it. Even then, I may give up the game. It stinks IMHO
There needs to be a dirt Championship…listening NYRA???
October 27th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Kudos to Mr. Avioli on his successful strategic moves to continue the successes of Breeders’ Cup. The 2-day format-a growing win your in program- Filly Friday and probably many other successes. HOWEVER, true sports fan need a Saturday-Sunday format. Don’t Sat-Sundays bring the largest crowds for golf? Hopefully it’s the old guard who stopped him; after all they probably don’t work on Friday afternoons.
October 27th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Faith, few would deny that a Sat-Sun festival wouldn’t produce more wagering success and even vastly more on-site occupied seats (provided the BC stops their nosebleed pricing) but rather the rub is securing TV airing time.
No chance in my lifetime or yours that ESPN (let alone ABC) will give up two consecutive 6+ hour blocks of crucial sports tv time in the fall for horse racing. Further the BC doesn’t have the money to buy that prime time tv real estate either.
If the BC wants a large portion of the races aired on the equivalent of Siberian AM-radio with say the ESPN Classic cable channel then it will be accomplished with a Saturday/Sunday mandate. The true cost being that it would considerably limit any significant tv viewing audience at-home being part of the experience.
The racing for 2008 by itself as a ‘product’ was very good. We enjoyed a showcase of renewed vigor from the imports and less then chalky results by and large. Still ESPN’s coverage is just poor compared to the days of NBC having the BC. I like Randy and Jerry’s feedback and insights. Yet it is Joe as the MC seems to dumb it all down by trying (and overreaching) in his comments aimed at perceived sizable viewership with zero racing knowledge. That simply isn’t the case and they should assume those who have sought out watching the sport can follow. Just because the average guy isn’t working with plow horses like days of old doesn’t mean a view can’t grasp wagering or racing tactics.
The BC really should have more control on the product’s presentation and demand far more in what they get. Scant little breeding info is ever presented, post parades lack suitable information with the connections, and precious few new ways to capture the action for fans at home are ever employed. Why not use or at least try the Trackus for example for a few races? Setting aside the weak filler segments and on-air banter, the actual video of the races from a broadcast perspective are downright lackluster compared to say the Dubai World Cup.
October 27th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
I was at the BC and I can tell you that the “Ladies Classic” idea was not popular. Neither was “Filly Friday”. Most continued to call the “Ladies Classic” by it’s old name of the Distaff and were annoyed about the new “Filly Friday”. Most of the population did not get to witness Zenyatta’s wonderful performance in the Distaff because they were at work. Imagine if Personal Ensigns Distaff win against Winning Colors had been held on friday!!!
One big reason I can think of for a handle decline saturday (besides the loss of the Distaff) could be the overload of races. Many of us in attendance that day were getting tired of handicapping! Especially over a synthetic surface, it was just too hard and there were TOO many races! Sensory overload!
October 27th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
In my lifetime I could see a two hour Saturday teaser followed by 6 hours on Sunday. In late October on a Sunday night Horse Racing has the nation’s attention. Your comments about “dumb it all down” are right on, maybe it helps, but I doubt it? The horseplayer has always been above average and needs to be addressed in that manner.
From the experiences of HRTV and TVG, BC could present a show that ABC(espn) or NBC would be proud to present. The material should be informative with “subliminal” messages to attract owners, breeders, players and fans. Watching a BC production has become mundane, even with some improved witty banter. Wouldn’t it be nice to see horse racing take a giant step forward for all of TV and present a production where the audience has a brain and not just a heart.
The next BC production should be influenced by what has been successful for TVG and HRTV, with the underlying premises that the audience has sought the event out. It could be a little more creative.
October 27th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Here here on changing the two day event to a Saturday/Sunday format, a true horse racing fan can live without the NFL for one Sunday. Besides the inconvenience of taking extra time off from work for both out of state visitors and local fans, I can’t hardly stand the commute to and from the track on “get out of town” Friday! As for the television coverage I didn’t even bother to tape the event while I was enjoying it in person, as the coverage has never been that great. If only HRTV could be a regular fixture on most TV’s, there would be the answer to a great presentation of our beloved sport!!! A lot of us fans out there would like to return the Ladies’ Classic back to the Distaff, if you’re a fan you already know what the word means. I’d prefer to keep the original graded races grouped together and the new Breeders’ Cup races on a seperated day instead of intermingling them, I hate to say it but the filly/ladies day thing is making the sport take yet another backstep leap into the past.
October 27th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
I do not like synthetic surfaces. Horses have run on dirt for centuries, and only lately have we noticed an epidemic of breakdowns. A lot of people are pushing synthetic surfaces as “the answer” because (I think) breeders don’t want to address real problems in the breed. The Thoroughbred is more fragile today than in the past according to Penny Chenery and many other prominent horsemen/women. I would like to see breeders breed sturdier horses, instead of which the trend is toward super-cushioned surfaces that accommodate horses who may be just too delicate to run safely on the traditional dirt.
While the BC officials may have embraced the dominance of the European horses, I did not like it one bit, because the synthetic surface clearly gave them an unfair advantage. Curlin was the best horse in the Classic field. The trouble was that the Classic was not the Classic this year. It was a turf race and Curlin ran it the same way he ran his single other turf race - badly - because Curlin is not a turf horse.
Anyway, the Breeder’s Cup wasn’t entirely injury free this year- didn’t Big Brown damage his hoof while galloping out on the synthetic surface?
October 28th, 2008 at 6:47 am
The leaders of racing can do as they please and so will I. I have bet for 40 years but I have not bet at Keeneland for 2 years and will not bet another race run anywhere on a surface other than dirt or turf.
October 28th, 2008 at 9:59 am
>> Breeder’s Cup wasn’t entirely injury free this year- didn’t Big Brown damage his hoof while galloping out on the synthetic surface? <<
No. He was working out with IEAH owned Kip Deville on the turf at Aqueduct when the injury occured.
Dirt like synthetics are not all alike and vary widely from track to track based upon the ground crew, humidity, temperatures, and quality of soil. We can say “dirt” and assume it’s all the same yet the characteristics of the dirt at Hawthorne vs. Oaklawn vs. Saratoga will be different. For example the fastest 1 1/4 mi time at Saratoga for all the firepower launched on that track has never bettered 2:00 which was accomplished by Generally Assembly in 1979.
October 28th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
What a bunch of whiners and no-nothing geniuses who think they can do it better. Everyone wants to wallow in criticism instead of looking for what is good about the changes. Breeders’ Cup needed the extra races to establish championships in broader categories and we can’t run 14 races on the same day without having to arrive at the track at 7 am. Filly Friday is a good way to separate the two days. Running on Sat/Sun instead just means travelers must go home on Monday and miss work that day - so if you plan to attend all the races, accept that it will be inconvenient. I understand the explanation for doing away with “Distaff” since we are trying to attract new audience, and distaff does sound like an infection if you have never heard the word. We can live with the new name. It’s such a trivial issue to draw so many complaints.
Dirt surfaces have been criticized to no end for their safety records, yet when the industry actually tries to improve safety, it gets nothing but more criticism. My conclusion: people just love to criticize. Stop whining and complaining and give some credit to those who are trying to improve our sport. For too long nobody was doing anything about the problems in our sport and FINALLY some action is being taken, so let’s appreciate that.
October 28th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
PS Noelle: Big Brown grabbed a quarter. If you don’t know what that is, look it up. It has nothing to do with the surface, however it usually happens when a horse breaks from the gate, not during a workout.