KEENELAND SALE PROJECTION: LOWEST TOTAL SINCE 1998
When the sub-prime loan crisis led to a global financial meltdown at this time last year, many stock market investors lost 10 years of gains with their investment portfolios. That’s where the yearling market is headed, based on projections by the Paulick Report showing how the Keeneland September yearling sale is going to wind up at the end of its 14-day run next Monday.
At the current rate, the final numbers for this year’s Keeneland auction will show gross sales of approximately $190,000,000, the lowest figure since 1998, when total sales reached $169,811,800. The difference between 2009 and 1998, however, is that the numbers were ascending then; the $169.8 million total represented what was then an all-time Keeneland September record and the seventh consecutive year of gains. (Click here for a summary of Keeneland sale history.)
This year’s projected sale-ending average is $65,000, also the lowest since 1998, when the average was $59,475, also a new September sale record. This year’s projected median, $25,000, is identical to the median of 2001. The decline in average price from 2008’s September sale is projected to be 28.6%, slightly higher than the 25% I predicted during a presentation in February to the Kentucky Thoroughbred Farm Managers’ Club. A number of concerned breeders said that night they thought 25% was optimistic—and they were right. The 28.6% decline is exacerbated by unprecedented buyback rates during each of the first six sessions ranging from 30.1% to 41.2%.
If these projections hold up, breeders will have suffered roughly $200 million in losses since the sale’s highwater mark in 2006, when gross receipts reached $399,791,800. That year’s average price, $112,427, was another record for September, as was the $45,000 median.
| Day | No. Sold | Gross Sales | Change vs. 2008 | Average | Change vs. 2008 | Median | Change vs. 2008 | RNA |
| 9/14 | 107 | $24,949,000 | -55.5% | $233,168 | -35.9% | $200,000 | -33.3% | 41.2% |
| 9/15 | 115 | $33,807,000 | -41.0% | $293,974 | -25.1% | $250,000 | -16.7% | 35.0% |
| 9/16 | 229 | $32,718,000 | -35.6% | $142,873 | -24.1% | $100,000 | -37.5% | 34.8% |
| 9/17 | 252 | $26,185,500 | -35.4% | $103,911 | -31.6% | $75,000 | -40.0% | 30.6% |
| 9/19 | 238 | $18,439,500 | -39.9% | $77,477 | -29.3% | $60,000 | -33.3% | 33.5% |
| 9/20 | 255 | $14,843,000 | -45.2% | $91,542 | -36.4% | $45,000 | -35.7% | 30.1% |
| Cumulative | 1,196 | $150,942,000 | -42.5% | $126,206 | -32.1% | $80,000 | -36.0% | N/A |
| Sale-End Projection | 2,950 | $190,000,000 | -42.1% | $65,000 | -28.6% | $25,000 | -32.4% | Â |
This year’s prices are all the more devastating when you take into account that breeders almost certainly invested more money in aggregate stud fees to produce these yearlings because of the record, inflated yearling market of 2006. The prospects for 2010 yearling sales are not bright, either, since those horses were produced from 2008 fees; it was not until earlier this year that many stallions operations significantly reduced stud fees.
How will this year’s September sale affect the broodmare market when Keeneland hosts its November breeding stock sale in less than two months? Because the global financial markets collapsed midway through the 2008 September sale, it didn’t have that severe an impact on yearling prices, but it was felt at the 2008 November sale, where the average price of broodmares was down 48.5% from the previous year(from $125,581 to $64,695). That was the most significant single-year drop in average price of mares in the history of the Keeneland November sale; the next closest came in 1990, when the average fell by 40%, from $78,883 to $47,109. However, over a seven-year period, from the market peak of 1985 to the bottoming out in 1992, the average price of Keeneland November broodmares plunged by 61%.
Keeneland’s broodmare market has fallen nearly that far already, but I’m not sure the bottom is yet in sight. As the size of the foal crop comes down even further (and it’s dropped 18% in two years), expect the market to be flooded with mares breeders no longer want nor can afford to keep. That means prices will decline even further, perhaps to a level similar to the early 1990s.
Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: Keeneland, keeneland november breeding stock sale, keeneland september yearling sale, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred breeding, thoroughbred broodmares, thoroughbred marketplace, thoroughbred racing and breeding, thoroughbred sales
September 21st, 2009 at 11:21 am
If the people putting on the show (owners, breeders, tracks..etc) could somehow raise prices on the bettors and ADW’s, that would certainly help right the industry ship….make the breeders whole…..keep stud fees high for stallion owners…..let owners race for much better purses.
September 21st, 2009 at 11:41 am
This is an industry that is staggering around with strategies that have nothing to do with the realities of today…and tomorrow. But as long as the major players can still get a kick out of these “dog and pony” shows, then nothing significant is going to change. The Supertramp album title sums it all up: Crisis? What Crisis?
September 21st, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Truck-load after truck-load of horses (those with still enough meat on them) are being sent to slaughter because of the CA economy but also the irresponsible over-breeding, greed and mediocrity of the CTBA breeding program and its members.
The mass trucking of unwanted KY broodmares and babies to slaughter is next, before winter is here, just like in the 80s. Horses always pay the ultimate price following the excess of their owners and the whole racing industry.
September 21st, 2009 at 7:19 pm
Martha; When things get tight , the dogs will bite.
Your comment to cast the blame on the CTBA , the breeders so called greed & excess, indeed the entire Thoroughbred industry has gotten my hackels up.
I’ve been with the horses over forty plus years. It is the times that have changed & nothing more.
Back when there WAS a slaughter market , the price of horses were driven by that market.
There wasn’t an excess of horses.
Thanks to peta and others like them , there is no market for the slaughter horses, hence a huge over-population.
Meanwhile nations starve who would benifit from any kind of meat or protein.
Back when there was competition from the slaughter market , a horse, any horse HAD a price.
Now this is not true at all & the owners loose money while the FEW contractors & plants make all the profit, THAT is the difference.
The saddest thing I have EVER seen is when horse owners leave their horses at sales, turn them out on state lands or let them starve in their paddocks, turn them out on the Indian reservations and on & on. Some people feel they have no choice as they worry about how to feed their own children, so I hate what I see ,but am careful not to judge others….I do judge those people who push for the “New world order” and this slaughter issue is just another avenue for their plans…less livestock-more grains for them…..now THAT is GREED.
I personally would not send my horse to slaughter but not everyone has the amount of land that I do to bury them at the old home place.
Back when there was a slaughter market me & so many others would attend horse auctions & we would all pick out any horse who looked ok from those slaughter pens.
The horses who were left generally should be headed in that direction.
NOW due to the interpherence of the ‘advocates & ant-slaughter people”, ALL the horses go to slaughter & VERY few are saved. Me, and the others just can’t save them all, nor afford to…..slaughter continues & the only ones who make money are the contract buyers and the plants. The Thoroughbred is actually one of the most lucky of all breeds….you should see what I have seen in other breeds before you cast such blame on the Thoroughbred owner.
You , who judge others should be the ones to take in these horses & you would get a very clear inderstanding of what the reality IS..
To cast the blame on others who are in the business just isn’t fair if you ask me.
I only know a few people who breed & breed just for the fun of it, those types have always been around. The breeders I know ARE trying to produce a good & usable horse.
The breeders have a right to try to make a living. Being a horse breeder is a lot of hard work, sacrifice & even struggle, but because we love horses, we keep in the business….greed doesn’t even come close to the ”why” we all do it.!!!!!!!!!
Over the years I have watched the changes & there is very little common sense to most changes that I can see….Americans are sorely lacking in common sense & ”educated” and common sense are two very different matters.
Horses are paying the ultimate price but your entirely wrong about the why of it.
I love horses & it is heart-breaking to see what has happened these past few years.
I rescue a few as I can but NOTHING like back in the better days when we’d ‘turn’ several over every month and most always to very good homes.
The breeders will filter out and eventually , there will be fewer horses, fewer riders and a whole lot less market for the billions spent to keep the horses…looks downhill from there.
Regarding California, I see wild fire destruction as a leading cause of un-wanted horses as well as the economy .
Un-wanted may be best stated as “Un-able” .
September 21st, 2009 at 7:23 pm
itp
are you nuts?
September 22nd, 2009 at 7:27 am
An email from a reader makes a very good point about the Paulick Report’s 2009 Keeneland September sale projections–one that actually would make this year’s projected results worse than stated. It concerns the absence since 2002 of the Keeneland July sale. The comments from the reader follow:
” I would suggest that when you say that the projected gross revenues for the 2009 September Sale at Keeneland, $190 million, will be the lowest since 1998, you are not taking into consideration a key element — which, if included in the assessment, makes the situation even worse. Back in ‘98, Keeneland still had a July Yearling Sale. Gross receipts from the two venues that year totaled $241.7 million. These days, what formerly would have been July yearlings are now consigned to September. You actually have to go back to 1995 to find a figure less than $190 million for Keeneland sales that focus entirely on yearlings. Gross revenues that year totaled $176.6 million. “
September 22nd, 2009 at 10:10 am
Pam, blame the messenger and PETA of course.
I stand by what I wrote.
September 22nd, 2009 at 10:50 am
Well one thing about it is Martha is at least Pam had an interesting post filled with facts instead of a post filled with only accusations and blame the breeder syndrome !!!!!!!!!!!!!
September 22nd, 2009 at 11:52 am
Facts.
Go take a look at the USDA statistics on horses exported from the US for slaughter since the closure of the last slaughter plant here. 120,000 horses + were exported from the US and slaughtered for human consumption in Europe and Asia in 2008. We are awaiting the 2009 figures of course… Is that enough of a meat market for you all? MORE American horses were slaughtered in 2008 AFTER the closure of the last plant on US soil than in 2007 when we were still killing them here on behalf - not of the starving, because the starving cannot afford to eat horsemeat - of middle class Europeans and Asians who can afford the $7-$13 per pound that it costs after processing and shipping from North America.
There is an extremely active “slaughter market” in the US, including in California where the 1998 law has never been enforced. Not a single prosecution, let alone conviction, in 11 years. I live here, and rescue horses from auction and kill buyer’s holding lots in California. Here are the facts.
Low end horse (and licensed livestock) auctions are held every week in California, up and down the state, and scores of thoroughbreds (off track, off training farm, off breeding farm) are sold from (currently) a low of $75, roughly, to a high of $200 plus a bit, depending on size, to meat dealers who hold them temporarily within the state, and then ship them out of state to contracted slaughter plant buyers from Mexico and Canada. How do we know where the thoroughbreds come from? Because they are generally tattoed, and there are publicly available race and progeny records on them all. How do we know where the horses go from California? FOIA California USDA (APHIS) records. They’ve investigated.
Just chose not to pursue.
Why is the “meat demand” price so low for a thousand pound animal? Because horses are plentiful in supply, and buyers are few. But don’t worry folks: there is still an active meat market providing a “base” price. If you want that “base” price to go up, you’d better restrict the supply a little, or hope that despite current worldwide recession, European and Asian appetites for horsemeat increase.
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:05 pm
Pam said:
“Back when there WAS a slaughter market , the price of horses were driven by that market.
There wasn’t an excess of horses.”
The slaughter market never took a bad step following the closure of the last 3 US horse slaughter plants for environmental and sanitary reasons. The slaughter business is booming because of the mass dumping of horses. The only difference is that now horses are shipped to Mexico (a reported 27,000+ horses have already been shipped between January and August of this year) and Canada unless they are killed at rendering plants.
Pam said:
“Thanks to peta and others like them , there is no market for the slaughter horses, hence a huge over-population.”
The “excess of horses” comes from irresponsible breeding programs and excess borrowing including on real estate, the building and bursting of the bubble in real estate and equities, financial hardship following extensive job losses and real estate foreclosures. Horses fitted in the pretty picture, when all was thought to be secure. When everything caved in at once, horses were sold, given away and dispatched to the killers in mass which brought the price down. It was not “peta and others like them”.
Pam said:
“Meanwhile nations starve who would benifit from any kind of meat or protein.”
Nothing like a highly toxic pumped-up racehorse protein sent to starving nations. “From stable to table in 7 days”. That’s no joke. Race horses with racing plates still on, “fresh” off the track are found at kill auctions or are delivered directly to feedlots.
September 22nd, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Even if the meat price were $500 each for horse sold for slaughter , and we all know it is far below that, 120,000 horses exported in 2008 would have had a US market value of $60,000. How is $60,000 supposed to impact the economics of the horse market? That is about the median price for one Keeneland yearling. The “base price” argument for horse slaughter is a cruel joke with hay going for $150 a ton all over the US.
Figure it out people, horse slaughter is a cultural issue, a cruelty issue, and a values issue. It is not an economic issue except as a dodge for people who will not take responsibiity to euthanize horses that they cannot either sell legitimately or support. Horse slaughter is an easy out for people who won’t take responsibility for cleaning up their own mess. Hopefully, when the new EU new rules for food safety and 6 month quarantine policy take effect next year those people will be forced out of the breeding industry and this will all be a moot point.
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:23 pm
Martha & Caroline ;
This slaughter issue is indeed an extremely contentious debate. Thanks for replying to my post. The one thing I had forgotten to mention and will now include is HOW the slaughter horses are handled in the USA and in other foreign countries.
Years ago I rode along with a friend who was taking a horse to a plant in WA. state.
The plant was clean, had ample space, fresh water & the hay bins were full. The stallions seperated from the others as were the youngstock, etc.
Many of the horses hadn’t had that good of care for a long time. They were not stressed overly and even though this wasn’t my dream field trip, I did see first hand how things were managed.
NOW the horses must be sent out of state to foreign countries. How they are handled and eventually killed is one of the most horrible methods of cruelty that I have ever seen….I think that plants in the USA have more humane treatments and laws that WERE enforced so the horses would best left in the USA and also stop out-sourcing jobs , yet again to a foreign country.
At the usa plant, the horses were kept for sometime before the end day, your right that many horses are full of medications or could be, but then no one is forcing a person to buy it or consume.
As I said in my first post, I personally would not send my horse to slaughter, but not everyone can have that choice to make.
YES , I do blame peta , but not the messenger. Save the whales etc etc is only the green party at work. They ask animal lovers to donate and help , but then they take the money to further thier cause, this is a proven fact. Sept 11th brought out a new reality of many of these types of issues. Does anyone recall when the Red Cross was disclosed to find out that the head of this was opperated by the wife of the Russian Gulag ? This is why I take a very dim view of Peta & other similar organizations. I do contribute to charities, but now I am more diligent to check into any charity.
The horse over-population was NEVER like THIS before the USA plants were closed.
Horses did not suffer as they do now, such as being abandoned. When the time comes to end the life of the horse it IS the owners responsibility to do the right thing and out of respect for the horse.
I have never found an “Easy’ way to kill a horse & most of us agonize for months over this decision.
The owner should have the right to decide.
The rights of Americans are being removed day by day and as we speak., if we are not diligent, it won’t just be the horses we’re worried about, but our selves.
Martha and Caroline, with all of us being concernd, there can also be solutions.
I always thought that if the Registries offered incentives to geld early and then at a reduced Registration fee, then that would be one step to progress.
If vets and clinics offered reduced gelding fees, then this would also help.
Education and adoption has already helped.
Despite our differences in opinion, it is clear that we all care about the horses.
What ideas do you have ?
September 22nd, 2009 at 1:25 pm
120,000 times $500 is $60 million Priscilla, not $60,000. Even if a horse sold for low price of $75, that’s a $9 million market.
Alfalfa hay (which is the most expensive) currently sells for $45 per 1,250 lbs round bale in my area (Illinois & Iowa) making it less than $90 a ton. Grass hay sells for $30 to $35 for a 1,250 round bale. I’ll bet that most of the midwestern farm states have hay at similar prices.
I’m not advocating in favor horse slaughter, just better math and correct hay prices.
September 22nd, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Jeff, excuse me, where do you think Pam got these facts? Anyway, I think Priscilla makes a LOT more sense, and no horse should have to travel in an overcrowded trailer to be slaughtered. Even my local vet says the transport is extremely cruel. And I know of no starving country that will ever get the horse meat - it’s sent to European countries and Canada and considered a delicacy.
September 22nd, 2009 at 2:44 pm
Hay, especially alfalfa prices are falling at least in some parts of TX due to the high number of dairy cows and others being shipped to slaughter.
Pam, I really appreciate our discussion and I hope that Ray leaves this thread up until at least tomorrow to give me and hopefully others the opportunity to discuss potential solutions.
September 22nd, 2009 at 5:02 pm
Martha ; I thank-you for your kind reply.
Our discussion does comply with this Paulick report as to the down turn of the sale horse prices. Solutions do need to be found.
I am happy that we are able to talk about these issues , even if we have a difference of opinion, because I’m pretty sure that the majority of Paulick readers do love and care for thier horses.
Freespirit : To which facts do you refer ? I’ll be happy to discuss any of this in question.
September 23rd, 2009 at 12:19 am
It’s pretty difficult for me to envision anyone could go to a slaughter house and write a glowing write-up as though these doomed horses were allowed to run through an open pasture before they’re lined up for the captive bolt which may, or may not, do its job. There have been too many videos of horse strung up alive to bleed out, fully conscious and in horrific pain. No, I’m not a PETA member. I just know what went on at Cavel before this hellhole was finally shut down. There was one incident in which a pregnant mare gave birth on the killing floor. Granted, the methods and means in which horses are slaughtered outside the U.S. is even more horrific, but that doesn’t mean we should hold open and easy access to Mexico to kill American horses with knives.
If you own a horse, then it is incumbent upon you to end its life in an humane manner. Not transported hundreds of miles in an over-crowded trailer with no food or water to be slaughtered at the hands of people with no compassion or care for their suffering.
September 23rd, 2009 at 1:51 pm
KATE :
What I wrote was NOT a glowing report , but the facts. This is why any plant should be kept in the USA……….where there ARE inspectors and more humane methods.
Ending a horses life by euthanasia and then throwing him into a landfill is far more disgusting & shows a lack of respect for the animal…..thrown in with GARBAGE ???
Here in the country that does not happen.
When you see horses abandoned & left confused and to starve, WHAT is worse than that.
There are solutions, none are all wonderful , but some are less so.
Other readers wrote that the horse meat doesn’t go to needy, only the well to do consumers…that could change and maybe should be considered.
Others wrote that horses are so full of chemicals…Europe now has a new law coming soon for a 180 day hold……anyway, only race horses are full of drugs & medications, few other breeds do this to that extreme, other than wormer, which has a 30 day hold.
This is my last comment on the matter, but in parting, I will say :
“It is not how you die ,but the quality of life you lead while alive”.
September 24th, 2009 at 11:15 am
Pam,
The solution to reduce horse slaughter is to improved moral values and compassion. Slaughter-bound horses are NOT protected against cruelty during transportation and butchering.
Animal cruelty is ignored in the ag business as long as it doesn’t cut into revenues. The USDA doesn’t have enough inspectors and those who show up occasionally to check plants (pre-announced visits?) may be in bed with those they are supposed to police.
The supply of unwanted horses except for meat needs to be controlled by reducing over-breeding, irresponsible breeding and the size of horse racing in order to police the industry adequately to prevent abuse and injuries, boost quality and public interest, and to reduce the number of slaughtered horses from racetracks and breeding farms.
Like with owning and operating a vehicle, a license and registration fee, should be required to own each horse. The registration fee could be a bond posted to cover potential humane euthanasia/disposal or seizure due to neglect or abuse. The bond would be refunded if a horse changes ownership or a veterinary death certificate is produced.
License fees and interests from bonds would support a state-wide equine welfare and safety system. The horse and veterinary industries along with states and communities could help make vet-assisted humane euthanasia and disposal the right choice instead of slaughter.
Some hard-boots will hang onto their property rights to send their horses to slaughter since I don’t see a slaughter ban ever passing. So the horse population needs to be controlled with licenses and registration fees which would be fought by the shameless, mass-producing and slaughter advocate AQHA.
The AVMA and the AAEP in particular should stop defending horse slaughter while hiding its horrors behind the words “processing” “humane” and “euthanasia”. Based on the veterinary oath and mission statements, veterinarians should advocate a proper equine population, responsible ownership and breeding.
A network of accredited equine rescues and triage stations could be established across the country, adequately funded by license fees and bonds, the horse and veterinary industries, state and/or federal agencies and tax-free donations.
Horses should never be allowed to be transported in double-decker trucks and stronger laws need to be passed and existing laws enforced.
Because animal abuse often relates to violence against humans, a national animal-offender registry could be created as a service to horse owners and society based on the national sex-offender registry. Its equine division would register all offenders to prevent abuse, hoarding, irresponsible breeding, slaughter and to reduce costs to society.
Millions have been spent and at least two decades wasted buying pol votes and I don’t believe that a horse slaughter ban will ever pass. If it does without giant loopholes, it will be immediately legally challenged by beef, the AQHA, rodeo, veterinary groups and all who keep horses classified under livestock to be slaughtered at will.
If the anti-horse slaughter law still stands after the legal assault by the AHC and its members, it may not be enforced since the USDA is in bed with big ag and inspectors are few. The USDA is not protecting slaughter animals against cruelty. If slaughter is banned in the US but the market is still profitable, horses will be exported under false pretense.
To end or at least reduce the slaughter of our American horses, the supply needs to be cut by preventing over-breeding, improving owner responsibility, passing and enforcing tough animal protective laws, making animal cruelty a serious crime, registering all offenders and banning them from owning horses.
October 3rd, 2009 at 4:21 pm
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