FEARLESS ECLIPSE PREDICTIONS
There are many questions to be answered at tonight’s Eclipse Awards from Miami Beach, Fla. (from which I’ll be dutifully live blogging starting sometime after the 5:30 p.m. cocktail hour begins and before TVG goes on the air with its 7 p.m. coverage). Who will get the crown as 2008 Horse of the Year? Will it be the reigning champion, Curlin, or the unbeaten filly, Zenyatta?
Inquiring minds may want to know…will Michael Iavarone of IEAH Stable have more bodyguards than Jess Jackson? How big will Frank Stronach’s posse be? Who will take the first punch at the publisher of the Paulick Report? Iavarone (I’m no fan of his), trainer Steve Asmussen (I wrote that no trainer with a pending drug positive deserves an Eclipse Award) or my former boss, Bloodhorse publisher Stacy Bearse (who needs no further introduction to our faithful readers)? We’ll try to answer those questions and more, going behind the scenes as best we can.
Many of the Eclipse Award winners are obvious (both of the 2-year-old divisions, 3-year-old male, older male and female, jockey and trainer), but there actually is suspense in several categories (3-year-old filly, male and female turf, male and female sprinter, owner and breeder). Unless, of course, someone at the sponsoring organizations – the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, Daily Racing Form or National Turf Writers Association – has leaked the results, something that has happened in the past.
Without access to the leaks, here are my predictions for the night (on the Eclipse Awards front):
2-year-old male – Midshipman (a slam dunk)
2-year-old filly – Stardom Bound (should be a unanimous vote)
3-year-old male – Big Brown (there might be a few stragglers that voted against him)
3-year-old filly – Proud Spell over Eight Belles (performance should win out over sentiment)
older male – Curlin (slam dunk)
older female – Zenyatta (should be unanimous, though I am reminded that some sports writers didn’t vote for Rickey Henderson to get in the Baseball Hall of Fame)
male sprinter – Midnight Lute (if it’s like boxing, the defending champion should have an advantage, and we’re like boxing, right?). This may have been Bob Baffert’s best training achievement in his career (and he could have three Eclipse winners this year without being a finalist for outstanding trainer!)
female sprinter – Indian Blessing over Ventura (the anti-synthetic track votes may come into play here, diminishing Ventura’s win over Indian Blessing in the Breeders’ Cup)
outstanding owner – Unimaginative voters will probably give this to Stronach Stable, based on the highest earnings (though the 2008 leading owner by money won was Zayat Stable, who was not a finalist). Of the three finalists (Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin Racing is the third), IEAH deserves the award if it is strictly based on racetrack performance
outstanding breeder – tough one to call. Adena Springs has the numbers, but the other finalists, Stonerside and WinStar, had very good results from smaller foal crops. With Robert and Janice McNair producing two Breeders’ Cup winners (Midshipman and Raven’s Pass) for Stonerside, they get the nod
trainer – Steve Asmussen, an outstanding horseman and the certain landslide winner (though as I stated in an earlier column, I believe medication positives during the year in question should disqualify individuals or horses from awards consideration)
jockey – Garrett Gomez. Another landslide
apprentice Jockey and steeplechase horse – no clue
Horse of the Year – Curlin, by a comfortable margin…a deserving two-time champion
Tune in to the Paulick Report later tonight to see how wrong I can be!
UPDATE: Due to multiple braincell failure, two hotly contested categories were omitted from the original post.
male turf — Einstein over Conduit. A season of top performances in North America should rate higher than a single Breeders’ Cup win.
female turf — Forever Together (for the same reason as Einstein, even though Goldikova’s BC Mile triumph was nothing short of breathtaking.
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Tags: Big Brown, Bob Baffert, Curlin, daily racing form, eclipse awards, eight belles, Frank Stronach, garrett gomez, godolphin racing, IEAH, indian blessing, Michael Iavarone, midnight lute, midshipman, National Thoroughbred Racing Association, national turf writers association, NTRA, ntwa, Paulick Report, proud spell, raven's pass, Ray Paulick, rickey henderson, Robert McNair, stacy bearse, stardom bound, steve asmussen, stonerside, stronach stable, Synthetic surfaces, tvg, winstar, zayat stables, zenyatta
January 26th, 2009 at 10:28 am
The steeplechase horse will be a slam dunk for Good Night Shirt.
I’d like to see the recognition in the apprentice jockey category go to Inez Karlsson but sadly I don’t see a lot of support for a rider putting in her dues at lower profile Hawthorne Race Course.
January 26th, 2009 at 11:49 am
Boy I hope you’re right about CURLIN!!!!!!
January 26th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Steeplechase without a doubt is Good Night Shirt, who should (but obviously won’t) be the overall horse of the year. 5-5-0-0, 4 GIs, a repeat in the Breeders’ Cup. This horse had by far the most dominating season of any North American thoroughbred. If I had a vote, Good Night Shirt would get mine.
January 26th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
Eclipse for Deteriorating Finances: Frank Stronach (Annual dunk slam).
Eclipse for Disgracing The Sport with Baseless Accusations & Boasting: Rich Dutrow.
Eclipse for Bankrupting His 2008 Belmont Stakes Backers: Same.
Eclipse for Superior Technological Know-How: CD (KD Day crash).
Eclipse for Flamboyantly Flatulent Egotism, Owners: Michael “Hollywood” Iavarone.
(To be presented by Michael Gill.)
Eclipse for Fatally Crippling The BC Cup’s Appeal: “Cel Phone” Avioli.
(Not even the craziest business executive in the United States - see “Deteriorating Finances Eclipse,” above - is planning on making Sunshine Millions a two-day event.)
Eclipse for “Mailing-It-In” Race Calling:
Peter Berry & a very few select others have been DQ’ed.
The liabilities of the remaining cliche-infested, uninformative & inattentive booth buzzards are so uniform, it is impossible to pick just one; a Group Ceremony will be held.
(”We are very EXCITED to be here tonight -” “Absolutely!” - “Hey, this thing [holding trophy] just came out of the clouds!” - “Say, did I mention that I’m Joel Rosario’s agent?!” - “Yahoo! We’ve got another gear!” - Absolutely!”).
Ear-plugs are available in the lobby, prior to the presentation of the awards.
Eclipse, Media, Most Boring American Magazine (all categories): The Blood-Horse
(”Market Watch” art director & artists excluded).
Eclipse, Media, Consistently Unreadable Type-Size (Internet): The Thoroughbred Times.
Eclipse, Media, Obituaries: Various publications, re the passing of Joe Hirsch, the dean of the American racing media.
No one has an explanation for the fact that - despite his renown for his personal integrity, wit, and generosity - no one could be bothered to take the time to dig up a photo of the handsome, bon vivant Joe Hirsch in his prime (to be placed next to the tributes).
Editors settled, instead, for the easily acquired photos of J.H. taken after he had been cruelly afflicted in his later years with both an incurable disease and the ravages of time.
The Grand Eclipse, Media: DRF (For their classless, vile dismissal of racing’s greatest artist, Pierre Bellocq - “PEB,” whom they must have mistaken for Marshal Petain).
And the Eclipse for Finally Facing Reality: The Long Island Railroad, whose recent determination to shut down the dilapidated, World War One-era Belmont Park LIRR station has shocked the world.
(Demolition will commence shortly after the installation of the Aqueduct Race Track slots, in the year 2036.)
January 26th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Ray, I hope you brought sunscreen. You are whiter than Pachen Beauty.
January 26th, 2009 at 4:03 pm
You got about half of ‘em right. Regarding your early questions, here’s what I think:
Iavarone will have more bodyguards than Jackson
Stronach will have a posse of 20, including Andy’s babes.
No one’s gonna be the first to take a swing at you, but if someone does, watch out cause the others will pile on!
And Zenyatta will be Horse of the Year
January 26th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
I hope you are right about The Mighty Curlin
I agree with you Ray, Curlin deserves Horse of the Year, for the second year in a row !! Have you heard any news about Hialeah while in Miami ?? Have Fun tonight. I wish I was there !!
January 26th, 2009 at 10:10 pm
I want to know whose job it was to pair the original theme music with each award.
January 26th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
Brereton just told a funny joke!
I’ve certainly ridden the fast forward button a few times, but I’ve actually watched most of this.
January 29th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
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