All things seem possible with the arrival of spring. This is perhaps why joyful maladies such as “Derby Fever” and “March Madness” are synonymous with the vernal equinox. Every NCAA basketball player dreams of a trip to the Final Four, and every owner and trainer of a 3-year-old colt (or filly) envisions their horse sweeping to the lead at the head of the stretch in the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks. It’s only as we draw closer to or become involved in the actual events themselves that reality sets in.

I don’t fault the dreamers, though. Heck, I’m one of them. Where would the Thoroughbred industry be without enthusiastic owners, willing to pour millions of their hard-earned dollars into the game? And how entertaining would the NCAA tournament be without at least one “Cinderella story” every year? But, alas, it is our job to try to separate the true contenders from the pretenders.

Which horses along the Derby trail truly possess the depth of pedigree, stamina, and raw talent to negotiate a 20-horse field and arrive at the finishing post at the Derby, Preakness, or Belmont in front? We’ve certainly got plenty of history to go on, and the exercise of investigating these pedigrees hopefully makes us a little wiser in the process.

Classic winners such as Conquistador Cielo, Spend a Buck, Winning Colors, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown have taught us a valuable lesson. There is a difference between “cheap speed” and “classic speed,” in which horses are able to carry their fleet feet over an extended stretch of ground. We might very often concentrate on the pedigree of a horse in a classic race, and say, “This horse is going to mow them down in the last quarter of a mile. Look at the crosses of Fappiano and Ribot he’s got there in the third generation.” That’s all fine and dandy, but sometimes the best horse in the race simply goes to the lead and improves its position. And sometimes there are clues a little further back in a horse’s pedigree that indicate it may have more stamina genes in its family tree than is obvious by looking at a simplistic 3 x 3 generational printout.

I was certainly skeptical of Big Brown’s chances to win a classic last year. There was no denying that the horse was immensely talented, but where was a son of Boundary (a sprinter) from a mare by Nureyev (a miler) going to find the stamina reserves to negotiate a classic race? A closer look indicates that he is inbred 3 x 4 to the Preakness/Belmont winner Damascus and inbred 4 x 5 to the stamina and soundness influence Round Table. Furthermore, Big Brown’s dam carried intensive inbreeding to the important Rough Shod II family through Nureyev, Lear Fan, and in direct female inheritance.

Likewise, Smarty Jones (a son of Elusive Quality, like Quality Road) looked like a good miler. After all, Elusive Quality had broken the world record for one mile (on turf) and his dam was by Smile, a champion sprinter. But one has to consider the fact that Elusive Quality’s first 2 dams were sired by the long-winded Rokeby grass horse Hero’s Honor (a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Sea Hero) and Sir Ivor (an English Derby winner). In addition, Smarty Jones’ second dam was sired by Kentucky Derby winner Foolish Pleasure (also second in the Preakness and the Belmont), while the profound stamina influence Herbager sired his next dam. The stamina is there, if only veiled by time and speed influences closer up in the colt’s lineage.

First of all, Quality Road is a VERY fast horse. The “speed fig” and “sheets” guys are certain to love his performance in the Fountain of Youth, given his attendance to fractions of :45 2/5, 1:09 2/5, 1:22, and a finishing time of 1:35 for the mile, as each furlong he clipped off looked stronger than the one before. The last furlong was run in 13 seconds, even though a horse is expected to get a little tired after stalking such a fast pace, and 1:35 for a 3-year-old is very solid time. And he did draw off from a fairly contentious field by 4 ¼ lengths—it was an impressive race, to say the least, for a horse exiting a losing effort in an allowance race.

Quality Road’s sire Elusive Quality went through a bit of a dry spell, as many stallions do, after his initial success with Smarty Jones and Elusive City (Fr-I). But he has certainly come out the other side stronger than before, with last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Raven’s Pass and two additional G2 winners in 2009. And the ability of Smarty Jones and Raven’s Pass to impressively win races at the American classic distance of 10 furlongs (1 ¼ miles) certainly stamps Elusive Quality as a legitimate classic influence.

The distaff side of Quality Road’s pedigree is perhaps even more impressive, from a classic standpoint. His breeder and owner, Edward Evans, knows about stamina, as his family raced the dual-classic winner and classic influence Pleasant Colony. Mr. Evans went to $1,050,000 at the Keeneland-November sale to acquire the colt’s dam, Kobla, who did little at the racetrack, but is a full-sister to champion 3-year-old filly Ajina. Ajina was no wilting flower, as she accounted for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1), Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), and Mother Goose Stakes (G1), while placing second in the Alabama (G1) during a stellar sophomore campaign.

Strawberry Road, the sire of Kobla, was one of two homebred stallions (along with Theatrical) that Allen Paulson used with great success in his immense Brookside breeding program. Strawberry Road sired Ajina for Paulson, as well as champion older female Escena ($2.9 million in earnings, Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner) and Fraise ($2.6 million in earnings, Breeders’ Cup Turf winner). In addition to proving to be very sound, the progeny of Strawberry Road found races up to the European classic distance of 12 furlongs (1 ½ miles) well within their scope.

Quality Road’s next two dams were sired by Alydar (sire of classic winners Alysheba, Strike the Gold, and Easy Goer) and Bold Bidder (sire of Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner Spectacular Bid and Derby winner Cannonade), which certainly shouldn’t hurt his chances of getting a distance.

Quality Road hails from the Myrtlewood family of the peerless studs Mr. Prospector (profound classic influence) and Seattle Slew (Triple Crown winner and sire of A.P. Indy), and if you go back two more generations, you find the important foundation mare Frizette. Who else traces to Frizette? Elusive Quality. Mr. Prospector is the grandsire of Elusive Quality, and when you throw in a cross of the important French stallion Tourbillon (via My Babu), you see that Quality Road carries 4 crosses of Frizette in his pedigree.

If you can believe it, there is even more for breeders to like about Quality Road’s pedigree. He carries 6 x 5 inbreeding to the important mare Flower Bowl via Whiskey Road (sire of Strawberry Road) and the important classic influence Graustark in Elusive Quality’s pedigree. This family is very important in classic circles, as we also find classic influences like His Majesty and Majestic Prince (Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner), as well as Real Quiet (a near Triple Crown winner) and foreign classic winners Caracolero (French Derby) and Secreto (English Derby) descending from the foundation mare Boudoir II.

Quality Road also carries 6 x 6 inbreeding to the two-time champion Two Lea (Hollywood Gold Cup over colts) via Tim Tam (Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner) and On-and-On (damsire of Alydar). So, that gives him multiple links to three notable broodmares (Myrtlewood, Flower Bowl, and Two Lea) all within the first 7 generations of his pedigree. His pedigree also carries the Mr. Prospector/Alydar combination (more than a dozen G1 winners have that, including champions Anees and Point Given), as well as 3 crosses of the Nasrullah/Princequillo combination (Secretariat, the mare Natashka, and Bold Bidder), although when a colt carries this much quality and maternal influence, that almost seems unfair to mention to the competition.

Quality Road still has a lot to prove, no doubt.  And whether or not he’s a classic-type horse will remain to be seen. But at the very least, we are looking at a very exciting young stallion prospect, and his performance in the Fountain of Youth went a long toward padding his resume in the minds of breeders.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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