COULD IT FINALLY BE RACHEL AND Z?
While nothing is certain, there seem to be rumblings of a chance for 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and the undefeated Zenyatta to square off against each other in the Personal Ensign on August 29th at Saratoga according to the New York Daily News.
Read more at the New York Daily News
Tags: New York Daily News, Paulick Report, Personal Enisgn Stakes, Rachel Alexandra, saratoga, zenyatta
July 26th, 2010 at 7:09 am
I hope it happens.
July 26th, 2010 at 7:26 am
Considering Zenyatta does not appear to ship well, I think this is a long shot. They will have to ship again for the Classic, so, doesn’t seem like a good move. But, 1 1/4 is right in Z’s wheelhouse, and it will be interesting to see how Rachel A. does at that distance. She’s a much more mature horse now.
July 26th, 2010 at 7:53 am
Zenyatta should be put on the next plane to Saratoga.
July 26th, 2010 at 7:56 am
Won;t happen
July 26th, 2010 at 8:01 am
The only way this will happen is if they decied to leave Zenyatta on the east coast to avoid another ship later this year. I don’t see that happenng.
July 26th, 2010 at 8:20 am
Z is either going to ship, run @ Del Mar, or take a long break until Oak Tree, Spa sounds like the lesser of 3 evils.
July 26th, 2010 at 9:27 am
Zenyatta should be on a plane today but that won’t happen and we all know it. Chickenyatta isn’t going anywhere and won’t be taking on Rachel any time soon. Zenyatta is a plastic poly horse and state champion and that is it. She has no chance vs. the HOY. Mr. Moss we all know she isn’t much of a dirt horse you don’t have to keep hiding her we know. Zenyatta has been exposed.
July 26th, 2010 at 9:34 am
I can’t see it. Sherriffs won’t want to ship Zenyatta this close to the Breeders Cup, and the RA camp is in this basically to see whether she can handle 1 1/4 miles. There’ll be some sabre-rattling but I doubt they’ll meet up in August. Besides, I don’t think RA is physically ready to take on a horse as tough as Z, and that’ll just give Jackson another raft of excuses if she loses.
July 26th, 2010 at 9:37 am
I would love to see two great champions get together finally for the fans and for racing. Rachel vs. Life At Ten and Zenyatta would do nothing but good for the sport. On dirt my $ is on Rachel.
July 26th, 2010 at 10:26 am
Rachel winning a 10 panel race against legit competition? hahahahahaha rotflmao
July 26th, 2010 at 11:02 am
If I was Zenyatta’s owner or trainer, I would ship to the east coast & stay away from Del-Mar’s problems with the un-even surface of the track. Why risk her getting injured at Del-Mar? Come on over to the east coast & prep for the Breeder’s Cup. We would love to see “Zenyatta the Amazon Mare” take on “Rachel The Great”!! I LOVE both of them!! You Go Girls
July 26th, 2010 at 11:55 am
Mud could mean that Z would scratch again like she did at CD last year.
July 26th, 2010 at 12:36 pm
At this point, it would be a more fair and a more interesting matchup if John Shirreffs were to ship Zardana to Saratoga. Zardana is entitled to a deciding “rubber match” against Rachel Alexandra.
“Chickenyatta,” eh Draynay? LOL. Where was Rachel Alexandra last November during the Breeders’ Cup?
“Chickenyatta”? Heh. Where was Rachel last April, when $5 million was on the table at Oaklawn (DIRT!) for the Apple Blossom?
“Chickenyatta”? Then why has the purported “Horse of Year” yet to run a Grade 1 in 4 attempts this year?
July 26th, 2010 at 12:37 pm
joe:
She didn’t scratch because the track was muddy. She scratched because it was sealed. I don’t know why this fallacy is still out there.
I think Rachel can get 10F, but I’m not sure she can get it against Zenyatta. She’s going to have to get some kind of separation from the field and there will likely be more speed in there. So first she has to get by the speed — probably not TOO much of a problem, but she’ll still expend energy. And then she’ll have to hold off Zenyatta. At 10F. The timing for Zenyatta won’t work, though, if they want another prep before the BC, unless they decide to just keep her East and that’s a huge gamble. But they’d have about five weeks between the PE and the Oak Tree race and given how long it took her to recover from shipping back from Oaklawn, that doesn’t seem feasible.
July 26th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
Where was Rachel last November? She was preparing to receive her HOY award.
Let me know when Chickenyatta wins a race on dirt over 9 furlongs. Rachel has done it and so has Life At Ten. After the Personal Ensign Rachel will have another G1 win on dirt past 9 furlongs while Zenyatta in her ENTIRE CAREER will still have 0.
Sealed or not they had no plans to run her in the mud. She was scratched from the race long before the track was sealed. But nice try.
July 26th, 2010 at 1:01 pm
Zenyatta was scratched from the Louisville Distaff on the late morning of the race — well AFTER the track had been sealed overnight due to heavy rains.
Crist Blog | May 01, 2009
Oaks Day Live
12:09 pm: Zenyatta’s out of the Louisville Distaff and the Churchill Downs track is listed as sloppy(on tv) or muddy (in the charts)but doesn’t look too bad — yet. The first three races on the marathon Oaks day card were run pretty formfully on a sealed main track that has some water sitting on top of it, but forecasters are calling for 2 to 4 more inches by Derby post time.
July 26th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
Draynay, you said (no. 15): “Let me know when Chickenyatta wins a race on dirt over 9 furlongs. Rachel has done it and so has Life At Ten. After the Personal Ensign Rachel will have another G1 win on dirt past 9 furlongs while Zenyatta in her ENTIRE CAREER will still have 0.”
Um, Draynay, you are wrong again. You are entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts. Zenyatta won a 9 furlong race on dirt in April at Oaklawn, when $5 million was on the table. Cabernet Jess ducked that race after initially committing to it. (This was after the alleged “Horse of the Year” lost to Zardana, Zenyatta’s stable mate).
And Draynay: Let me know when Rachel Alexandra is entered in a race without any concessions, and against a field of other than optional claimers.
July 26th, 2010 at 1:16 pm
I don’t know where the idea Zenyatta can’t handle dirt comes from. She seems to handle it just fine in Arkansas.
Zenyatta won the Apple Blossom this year a heck of a lot easier than Rachel Alexandra won her race this past weekend. Zenyatta blew by them and, if the race had been 1/16th mile longer, would have just won by even more.
I readily concede this year’s Apple Blossom didn’t have a grade one field, but it was a tougher bunch than the Lady’s Secret in that at least most of the runners had won graded stakes races. Zenyatta destroyed them.
July 26th, 2010 at 1:19 pm
In fact, TWENTY-SIX (26!) horses were scratched by their respective trainers from Churchill Downs on that day:
Brother Keith, Bull Toccet, Final Judgement, Stamp, Zone Buster, Accredit, Hewitts, Modification, Zenyatta, Fleet Streak, Walloon, Ready Set, Pointing Home, Justwhistledixie, Autumn Rock, Cape Cod Bay, Dignified Air, G Mom, Lastful Appeal, Maria’s Moon, Market At Midday, Merciful, Mimi’s Kids, Showboater, Sugarland Star and Tantamount.
July 26th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
Jim C.,
Not taking anyone’s sides, but if you read Draynay’s post (No. 15), he said winning a race “on dirt past 9 furlongs.” Without checking my facts, Zenyatta has not won a race longer than 9f on the dirt. As you correctly said, she won the AB going 9, but hasn’t won going any further on the dirt.
Even so, I personally hope these two beautiful horses do square off…more than once this year. It would be a treat for the sport. And the BC Classic looks like it will be loaded, as long as all horses stay healthy. QR has to be the favorite, but we’ll see where that stands after the Whitney.
July 26th, 2010 at 1:45 pm
Zenyatta’s connections have made it quite clear, through their actions the past several years, that they believe the only race outside of California worthy of her presence is the Apple Blossom. I expect the Breeders’ Cup Classic to be added to that mind-boggingly short list in November, but do not otherwise expect her to travel. They’ve always been rather parochial.
July 26th, 2010 at 1:58 pm
Thanks to everyone else for digging up the Louisville Distaff info. I don’t respond to draynay but I’m not shocked he was wrong again. I do find it rather hilarious that there’s the intimation that Zenyatta won’t be able to win past 9F on the dirt. Seriously? Zenyatta? How, exactly, do you figure that? I don’t give two sticks about surface, frankly, because she HAS won at 10F. And she was just gearing up at 10F. This is not a horse who has EVER come back knocked out. Can the same be said about Rachel? Of course not. Sure, she won the Preakness. And it was a great effort. But she barely lasted at 1/16 of a mile shorter than she’d be going in the BC Classic. A big field with a lot of speed and 10F isn’t out of the realm of possibility for her but given the choice, I’d take Zenyatta any day, whether or not she’s won at 1/16 of a mile shorter than the Classic distance.
That’s just a weird justification.
The real amazing thing is that Zenyatta is winning these much shorter races, with her running style, and no speed in the field. You don’t think John Shirreffs and Mike Smith would be delighted to see all that speed stack up in the Classic? They WANT Quality Road and Rachel in there. Shirreffs was bummed QR was scratched last year. There went the speed.
Honestly, aren’t all y’all just blowing this dirt/synthetic thing completely out of proportion? You’re completely ignoring the fact that horses who run on synthetic and move to dirt have been moving UP. Of course there are horses that can’t handle certain surfaces. There are horses that can’t handle different DIRT tracks. They DO all play differently. Didn’t some know-nothing say something about all synthetic tracks playing the same? That’s ridiculous. They don’t, just like all dirt tracks don’t play the same. But go ahead. Hold onto this fallacy and go to the windows with it.
Sheesh.
July 26th, 2010 at 2:12 pm
RHill,
If Draynay’s argument is that Zenyatta has never won a race “past 9 furlongs,” and, therefore, Rachel Alexandra is a better horse, then he is groveling. True, the 2010 Apple Blossom was exactly 9 furlongs, but when you factor in the fact that she was 4-5 wide coming out of the final turn, Zenyatta traveled further than 9 furlongs. In any event, if they had made that race 10 furlongs, she would have won by even a greater margin. Zenyatta loves dirt, loves distance, always finishes with plenty left in the tank, and always has the strongest gallop out, so Draynay’s argument is a red herring.
In addition, Rachel Alexandra, has ran exactly once past 9 furlongs (in the 2009 Preakness). had the 2009 Woodward been longer than 9 furlongs, Macho Again would have won that race.
In any event, were the two ever to hook-up, and negotiate distance, Rachel’s connections would be looking for the shorter distance, and Zenyatta the longer distance. So Draynay’s argument is pointless.
July 26th, 2010 at 2:16 pm
Is anyone else simply tired of the negative remarks by those people who seemly only exist to tear down Zenyatta or Rachel Alexandra? I enjoy both horses frankly and why not? Each has accomplished something unique. Just enjoy it and move on. It really does get tedious having to wade through asinine remarks on every BB when a topic on one horse or the other is raised.
Horse racing when it comes to “discussions” about these horses has deteriorated into a pointless debate between 12-yr boys arguing what supercar is better then another.
On topic: it would be great if NYRA can make this happen however they should stay firm on the purse. If either party wants the glory of a showcase graded stakes race Saratoga win then enter and go from there. The stands will fill on their own. If the track wants to throw in a round of drinks at Siro’s to the winning connections - great. No need for a $400k+ bonus purse (paid for by the rest of the Spa runners) dangled like a carrot.
July 26th, 2010 at 2:22 pm
Look up “troll” in the dictionary and there will be a picture of Draynay.
July 26th, 2010 at 2:44 pm
To Glimmerglass:
There is nothing wrong with horse racing fans engaging in rational debate. My comments about Rachel Alexandra have been respectful, and have been fact-based, as have all the comments from the Zenaytta fans. Rachel is great, but when I hear Zenyatta and her connections being ripped in this forum, as well as denigrated by the Andrew Beyers of the world, I feel compelled to respond. It is also pretty tiresome to hear how much better Rachel is when she lost a race earlier this year to Zenyatta’ stablemate, has yet to run in a Grade 1 this year, and when her owners extracts concessions from nearly every track she races at, such as last weekend at Monmouth, where the ungraded race was moved to fit her schedule, and the distance was lengthened.
The only one that has engaged in ad hominem attacks and name-calling is Draynay, who has referred to Zenyatta as “Chickenyatta,” and “plastic poly horse and state champion.” There is thus no basis for equating Draynay’s equine hate speech with fact-based refutations of Draynay’s illogic.
July 26th, 2010 at 3:20 pm
This “Z” bashing has been going on now for almost 20 months yet you folks still seem fit to let this guy “push your buttons” with his nonsensical postings. Please everyone just ignore him. Rember the proverb of never debating with a fool etc. etc.
July 26th, 2010 at 4:53 pm
Rachel has already done it all…….won HOTY in 2009….what’s left to be proven? She gave us all 110% as a 3 yr old…………unbelievable schedule, beaten the boys not once, not twice, but THREE times! Zenyatta is very capable and she possibly could beat Rachel this year; however, her connections refused to meet up w/Rachel last year, save the BC…which everyone knew she was not going to race in based on her schedule and ultimate goal….to beat the boys, older females, males, etc…and during all that, throw in a Triple Crown Race win….and therefore be HOTY hands down!
Z needs to be racing on the East coast, in the dirt, against the “real deal”….dirt horses….those she will be facing for the FIRST time if she goes to the BC at Churchill this year. I still think there will be some excuse made and Z won’t make it, and that’s unfortunate. But I think Z’s connections are more concerned about keeping her record going….20 wins, 0 losses….that would top Pepper’s Pride’s record of 19 wins, 0 losses. Oh well, I guess doing something for ALL OF RACING AND ALL RACING FANS isn’t as important to them as keeping her win record flawless.
July 26th, 2010 at 5:08 pm
I Davis,
Shouldn’t the owners do what they think is right for their horse, not what other people think is right?
July 26th, 2010 at 6:02 pm
Tiz, exactly. We should simply enjoy both of them and leave owners and trainers alone. Z has won more than 100 times her purchase price. That alone is amazing!
July 26th, 2010 at 6:32 pm
RHill says “QR has to be the favorite…”
huh?
By beating east coast tomato cans like Musket Man that gets beat by an over-priced claimer called Atta Boy Roy. Or by beating a horse called Dry Martini that exactly one win in three years, or how about You And I Forever that is fallen so far he running in ungraded stakes.
Quality Road won’t even be in the Classic.
He’s this year’s version of the most over-hyped horse following in the footsteps of Rachel Alexandra.
July 26th, 2010 at 6:35 pm
I Davis,
Oh please stop your nonsense.
Rachel Alexandra was the “Hoax of the Year”.
The only reason she won the award was because of east coast bias.
July 26th, 2010 at 6:49 pm
Rachel Alexandra must prove herself all over again to make a meeting with Zenyatta possible.
She must try to erase her HOY “mistake” stigma by winning at least Grade 1 races in order to arrive at the level of Zenyatta.
July 26th, 2010 at 7:16 pm
I Davis:
Heh. Zenyatta’s connections REFUSED to meet Rachel? Well, seeing as how Rachel only ran in one race that Zenyatta could have entered, that’s kind of ridiculous. Rachel didn’t even FACE older fillies last year. Correct yourself. Look, 2009 is OVER. The goals of both fillies were diametrically opposed last year. But this year, theoretically, they share the same goal — reach the BC. Now, Zenyatta’s connections have always stated that she’s pointing for the Classic. Rachel’s connections haven’t, although if they go in the PE, I would think that’s their goal. But they’re being conservative about making a definitive pick, and that’s fine. They ducked the Apple Blossom, which they had moved to meet Rachel’s schedule, and that’s fine. But if you’re going to make these erroneous statements about Zenyatta, then you need to admit that they apply to Rachel, too. Here’s the point, dude — horses aren’t machines. Plans change due to that. Just because Jess Jackson has a big old mouth doesn’t mean that Rachel should have run where she wasn’t ready to. Although it would be nice if Jess would shut that big old mouth and let his horse do his talking for him.
You can move the goalposts for Zenyatta all you want. You can complain that her career has been conservative. But you’re just WRONG. ANY filly who steps up to run against high-level colts is NOT being conservatively campaigned. I know that all of you guys have found honorable ways to completely dismiss Zenyatta’s BC Classic. And that doesn’t upset me one bit. It’s just sad, really, because it means that you’re incapable of recognizing and appreciating her greatness. If people who profess to be racing nuts can’t recognize it, then how are we supposed to expect people OUTSIDE the sport to do so?
Zenyatta’s flawless record didn’t come in a string of allowance races, although it could have. It didn’t come in a string of ungraded stakes races, although it could have. If they REALLY were obsessed with keeping her perfect, they wouldn’t have entered her in the BC Classic. If you don’t think that was good for racing, then you clearly have a problem. I’d like to know, exactly, what should Zenyatta do that WOULD be good for racing? Ship to Monmouth to run in an ungraded stakes race? And if you think so little of her, then why do her plans matter to you at all?
And Rachel didn’t give 110%. I wish people would stop using that hyperbolic nonsense.
July 26th, 2010 at 7:27 pm
Betty, right on.
I Davis, thanks for pointing out to all of us that Zenyatta is “Capable”. What a brilliant observation. Geez., the lack of insight in your post is only surpassed by Dribblenays deranged rantings.
July 26th, 2010 at 7:48 pm
When the Breeders Cup rolls around in November the headlines will be reading Where’s Rachel? The answer will be…On the BC Undercard.
Based on their avoidance of quality Grade 1 competition since last November, the only way they run RA is if CD cards a special race for her.
Her connections seem to be the only one in her camp who understand her limitations.
Thus the races against Claimers, Non winners of 1 other than etc. They obviously want no part of Grade 1 competition, male or female.
July 26th, 2010 at 9:43 pm
To all of those who mistakenly believe that Zenyatta has ducked or avoided Rachel, Kay (#34 above) mentions the indisputable fact that you either don’t realize or choose to ignore. Last year, Rachel was only entered in ONE race that Zenyatta could have qualified for based on the conditions. With one exception all of Rachel’s races were restricted to three-year-olds. As for this year, Rachel has failed to even enter a G1 race and nobody in their right mind would suggest that the reigning BC Classic Champion (while in good form) would stoop to the sub-standard level of competition that Rachel has been facing.
As for a matchup at Saratoga - I’d love to see it - but it isn’t going to happen even if Jerry Moss and John Sherrifs do ship Zenyatta to the East Coast for the Personal Ensign to get a race in on dirt and at her best distance. I wouldn’t be shocked if they do, but they’re smart enough to know that JJ would certainly not let Rachel face Zenyatta and a field of other proven G1 and G2 winners at 1 1/4 miles. That isn’t going to happen at Saratoga and it probably isn’t going to happen at Churchill either. if Rachel rounds into form before the end of the year I believe she’ll be running on Friday night in the Ladies’ Classic at the shorter distance against a field she has a chance to handle.
July 26th, 2010 at 10:01 pm
Rachel is coming back and I would love to see Z and Rachel meet when they are both at their peak. They are both wonderful mares and great champions and I hope they won’t
meet until the the time is right for each. Breeder’s Cup? SN Jeske
July 26th, 2010 at 10:41 pm
I think Jessie should put Rachel on a plane and take her to Del Mar so she can prove a bunch of no nothing liberal media knows nothing about horse racing. She would get beat 20.Horse of the year my ass, looks just like Favorite Trick.
July 26th, 2010 at 10:58 pm
#31/Betty,
I think your’re right.
In the new NTRA poll just released Zenyatta takes a few more first places votes away from Quality Road and is starting to pull a away from him.
I think the voting experts are beginning to realize the bunch of east coast tomato cans he has beaten this year.
What a hype job from the east he had become.
July 27th, 2010 at 12:51 am
Kay said: “If they REALLY were obsessed with keeping her perfect, they wouldn’t have entered her in the BC Classic.”
They ARE obsessed, and the joke is really on them because the modern-day record they are hoping Zenyatta breaks is currently held not by a Secretariat-like champion, but by a mare who never raced against anything but New Mexico-breds. Wow, very meaningful. Kind of like celebrating Jorge Ricardo or Russell Baze as the winningest riders of all time (except for the inconvenient detail that they won most of their races in South America and Northern California, respectively.)
They ARE obsessed because entering her in the Breeders’ Cup Classic was not as great a risk to her unblemished record as you now imagine it to have been. And why was it not? Because she was the favorite! And why? Because she was unbeaten over Pro-Ride! It wasn’t rocket science. Let’s look at the other single-digit priced horses: Rip Van Winkle (never ran on synthetic); Summer Bird (never ran on synthetic); Twice Over (never ran on synthetic). And of the others with positive form on either Pro-Ride or any other type of synthetic surface, they were not fancied by the betting public and for good reason — Zenyatta was playing with a royal flush.
They ARE obsessed because they have bypassed races like the Santa Anita Handicap and Hollywood Gold Cup this season and will more than likely do the same with regards to the Pacific Classic. Why would they do that with a mare who demonstrated the ability to win a Breeders’ Cup Classic going away? Why settle for less money? Why settle for less prestige? Why believe running in those races would weaken her chances for a repeat in the BC Classic? Why disrespect her unique, God-given talent that way? Why? Why?
They ARE obsessed.
July 27th, 2010 at 1:48 am
Patrick:
Ah. You’re back. Awesome.
Yes, Zenyatta is unbeaten on Pro-Ride. And every other surface upon which she’s run. Sure, she was the favorite. She was the hometown girl. Or have you never heard of horses being bet because people are rooting for them? But if you look at the handicappers’ picks, she didn’t figure like the favorite. I do adore how you people are now reverse-engineering this, when before the Classic you were all there with your fancy numbers and your biases going, “She’s too SLOW. She’ll be buried.” but she wasn’t, and she won decisively. So then, of course, you had to revise your pre-race handicapping. And that meant dismissing every horse in the field because they, too, weren’t unbeaten on Pro-Ride. It’s funny, because the connections of those she beat said their horses ran their races. THEY appreciated her. You can Google the post-race remarks, but I suppose you wouldn’t believe the connections, right? Because people like you, dear Patrick, know better.
It’s funny, because you diss the Classic field and then in your next paragraph, you complain because they aren’t running her against males. Why would that bother you, if the BC Classic was SO unimpressive? You need to make up your mind on that one. They are doing right by their horse. Thank God you don’t own her. Just because THEY are no obsessed with HOTY and recognize the Breeder’s Cup as the championship day it was meant to be doesn’t tarnish it.
It’s a real shame you’re so bitter that you’re incapable of recognizing the impact of that race. I think it’s a little weird, but whatevs. Some people are just clueless.
It is YOU who is obsessed… with utterly dismissing Zenyatta. But if it makes you feel better, go on ahead. Have fun with that.
Tiresome.
July 27th, 2010 at 10:09 am
You’re gonna have to do better than that.
Thanks for the morning laugh. I can tell you were never on a debating team (or if you were, my sympathies to the rest of your team). Ad hominem doesn’t typically win many points.
Checkmate. Checkmate. Checkmate.
July 27th, 2010 at 10:31 am
I don’t know, I was more impressed with Kay’s argument than the other guy’s.
July 27th, 2010 at 11:46 am
Ah, the old “crap, I was sloppy and got caught. I can’t dissemble those points, therefore I will pretend to have won the argument by just saying I won the argument” gambit. Well played, sir! A little disappointing that you had to resort to a creaky message board trope, tho…
Rachel Alexandra has apparently done everything right, from the time she set foot on a track. Yet Zenyatta has done NOTHING right. That divide is perplexing. And the fallacy that sprung up after the BC Classic — that Zenyatta was a lock to win anyway and it wasn’t the least bit sporting or challenging to run her against colts because not one of those poor little boys could handle that horrible track — is just weird. Especially given how people felt BEFORE the race. But that doesn’t fit into this new world-view that Zenyatta has never once run against good horses, so you ignore that.
But that’s okay. You’re ADORABLE, Patrick. And don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
July 27th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
Betty,
Overhyped huh? Did you see the Donn in Feb? Pretty sure he broke his own track record winning by 12.75. It doesn’t matter who he beat in the race, he still beat the track record.
How about the Met Mile? He was 3/10ths off the race record (set by Honour and Glory, who carried 14 lbs less than QR ran with). He spotted the runner-up 7 lbs (and every other horse 7-14 lbs) and he did it off a 4-month layoff. And as much as you downgrade Musket Man, he did show in both the KY Derby and the Preakness last year.
By the way, based on what I’ve heard from people who were actually at the tracks and saw QR in person for both races, I’ll also take the position that QR was not even in peak shape for either the Donn or the Met, and particularly the Met. I believe he’ll get better as the year goes on. (But I’ll also say I think he’ll get a test from Blame in the Whitney).
Any one last thing, please explain to me how you figure QR won’t even be in the Classic. I certainly hope you’re not praying he gets injured.
July 27th, 2010 at 12:51 pm
“Rachel Alexandra has apparently done everything right, from the time she set foot on a track.”
It’s amusing how you always like to turn the subject back to Rachel Alexandra, a filly who’s descended into irrelevancy this year. Why is that? No articulate observer of the sport believes she poses a threat to Zenyatta for divisional championship honors in 2010. She’s the equine straw man in this exchange. Can one not critique Zenyatta without being labeled a rabid defender of Rachel Alexandra and her pitiful, unorthodox 2010 campaign? In your black and white world, apparently not.
What you call a fallacy most people would call critical thinking. It doesn’t matter what public handicappers thought before the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I used to be one, and we tend to pick against the favorite — sometimes blindly. It’s an innate habit because people don’t buy papers/tip sheets to get advice picking 2-1 shots. I’m sure there were some that stupidly picked against Goldikova too. Doesn’t mean anything. The money in the win pool does the talking, not the printed opinion of the chattering classes.
In an earlier exchange you said to me, “Well, you seem to be defending the crap out of X, so that’s the only conclusion I can draw.” That’s the problem with “debating” you — you’re forced to constantly make assumptions about what I stand, putting words in my mouth. And you know the old saying about assuming. For example, if I truly felt Zenyatta was not impressive in winning the BC Classic (as you claim), why would I advocate for her running in the Big ‘Cap, Gold Cup and Pacific Classic? Wouldn’t I instead be praising the conservatism of her 2010 campaign, foolishly saying she didn’t belong against the boys at any time? Well?
You have the last word.
July 27th, 2010 at 1:26 pm
“For example, if I truly felt Zenyatta was not impressive in winning the BC Classic (as you claim), why would I advocate for her running in the Big ‘Cap, Gold Cup and Pacific Classic? Wouldn’t I instead be praising the conservatism of her 2010 campaign, foolishly saying she didn’t belong against the boys at any time? Well?”
Absolutely. But see, here’s where you’re getting a bit confused about where you stand. You said the following:
“They ARE obsessed because entering her in the Breeders’ Cup Classic was not as great a risk to her unblemished record as you now imagine it to have been. And why was it not? Because she was the favorite! And why? Because she was unbeaten over Pro-Ride! It wasn’t rocket science. Let’s look at the other single-digit priced horses: Rip Van Winkle (never ran on synthetic); Summer Bird (never ran on synthetic); Twice Over (never ran on synthetic). And of the others with positive form on either Pro-Ride or any other type of synthetic surface, they were not fancied by the betting public and for good reason — Zenyatta was playing with a royal flush.”
And then right after, you said this:
“They ARE obsessed because they have bypassed races like the Santa Anita Handicap and Hollywood Gold Cup this season and will more than likely do the same with regards to the Pacific Classic. Why would they do that with a mare who demonstrated the ability to win a Breeders’ Cup Classic going away? Why settle for less money? Why settle for less prestige? Why believe running in those races would weaken her chances for a repeat in the BC Classic? Why disrespect her unique, God-given talent that way? Why? Why?”
So what can be parsed here is that you dismissed her BC Classic victory as impressive because she was the favorite, unbeaten on ProRide (and every other surface she’s encountered, but let’s leave that for another time), and none of the males handled the surface (according to you). But then, in your next paragraph, she’s suddenly not living up to her impressive BC Classic victory. So which is it? Were you impressed with her Classic victory, or not? Because if you weren’t, then you wouldn’t think she was tarnishing any kind of legacy by not running against colts at 10F in every 2010 start. See, it’s the opposite of what you think you said. Which is why you’re adorable.
As far as why handicappers picked against Zenyatta, it didn’t seem blind, actually. They invoked all those Beyer numbers and times and other nonsense that said Zenyatta was too slow to even compete with the boys. There wasn’t any blindness about it. It was handicapping, and the numbers said she couldn’t win. Good thing the numbers aren’t always right or racing would be boring. So your insinuation that handicappers just picked against her because she was the favorite is kind of disingenuous. I’m wondering how much of this anti-Zenyatta stuff is from handicappers who are still certain that she couldn’t have won that race because she was too slow. It’s like you guys just don’t BELIEVE it.
I know you pride yourself on being a good debater. You’re certainly well-spoken. But that doesn’t mean you can cogently form debating points. You want to argue for the sake of it, fine. I’ve dealt with people like you before.
“You have the last word.”
Awesome. The last word is “persimmon.”
July 27th, 2010 at 2:21 pm
Kay,
If you’re going to keep wiping the floor with Patrick as you debate him, I think we need to handicap you. Watching you debate your adorable Patrick is like watching a Grade 1 Mare enter an Allowance race filled with wannabees, then winning by 20. Yawn..
Either step up in class Kay, or if you insist on dropping in, only use half the left half of the keyboard.
July 27th, 2010 at 3:03 pm
Kay, yes, why do you keep participating in these easy debates. Are you obsessed with your record? I think you are. You definitely need to step up to something more challenging.
July 27th, 2010 at 3:51 pm
I bet against Zenyatta in the BC Classic last year NOT because I blindly bet against favorites, but because on paper she didn’t look that good compared to some others. My three main reasons for betting against her were: her Beyers were among the worst in the field, she’d never raced at 10 furlongs, and she’d only faced a double digit field one time in her career. So I thought she was too slow, had doubts about her ability to get 10f, and had serious doubts that she was mentally prepared to handle a large field especially considering she was also facing a huge crowd of human spectators.
And although Twice Over & Rip Van Winkle had never raced on pro-ride, they had trained on synthetics plus the year before two Euro turf horses had finished 1 and 2 in the Classic (and they beat 3 horses who had significant pro-ride experience).
July 27th, 2010 at 7:28 pm
No. 51, above: “My three main reasons for betting against her were: her Beyers were among the worst in the field, she’d never raced at 10 furlongs, and she’d only faced a double digit field one time in her career. ”
Barb, there is nothing wrong with going against a favorite. That’s the obligation of every horseplayer. Gio Ponti and Twice Over had great prices in the BC Classic. I bet Zenyatta to win, but Twice Over to win and show.
Regarding Zenyatta’s Beyers: as I have mentioned above and elsewhere, and as racing handicapper and historian Steve Davidowitz has pointed out, Zenyatta is impervious to math. Beyers do not take into account weight carried, slow pace, and lost ground. In virtually all of her races, Zenyatta encounters a slow pace, which compromises closers like her, and also leads to slower final times. In addition, Zenyatta often comes spinning out of the final turn anywhere from 4 to 8 wide, so she often covers more ground than the stated distance. Beyer, however, does not adjust for lost ground. (This is perhaps the most serious flaw in his methodology). Beyer also does not like Zenyatta to begin with, and has absolutely no qualms about arbitrarily throwing out the speed figured compelled by his normal rules, and instead assign an ad hoc number based on his opinion of the horse, as he did with Blind Luck (another California horse) in the Delaware Oaks. Beyer’s “adjustments” usually involve a California-based horse. He does not like California horses as a general rule. A better term for Beyer Speed Figures is “Beyer Speed Opinions.”
Another thing I would point out, and as Mike Smith constantly mentions: he has never reached the bottom of Zenyatta. She does what she needs to do to win, and not much more. She always crosses the finish line with her ears pricked, with plenty left in the tank, and has the strongest gallop out in the field.
Steve Davidowitz had a very perceptive observation about Zenyatta’s performance in the BC Classic. He noted that, coming out of the final turn, she was moving forward on a sideways path, angling out to try to find an opening, while Gio Ponti, Summer Bird, and Twice Over already had a clear, straight path to the finish, and were moving forward rapidly. Not only did she overcome this severe positional disadvantage, she inhaled the entire field once she found her opening, with plenty of energy left in reserve.
Post script re: Davidowitz: following the thrilling and historic 2010 Vanity, he appeared on Steve Byk’s radio show. Byk is perhaps Zenyatta’s most outspoken detractor in the East Coast turf media. (Byk has actually said on his show that Zenyatta is no better than Lava Man or Best Pal. Byk, who is a breathless admirer of Rachel Alexandra. Nothing wrong with that, except Byk has actually said that Rachel would have been deserving of 2009 Horse of the Year EVEN IF she had a walk-over in the Haskell. That’s just a flavor of the mentality we are dealing with in Byk’s case). Anyway, Davidowitz said to Byk that Zenyatta is the best older female horse he has even seen. Byk completely lost his composure and tersely ended the conversation.
July 27th, 2010 at 9:50 pm
Rip & Tiznow:
Heh. You both had the same idea!
Barb:
Exactly Handicappers had very good reasons to throw her out. The fans obviously made her the favorite. I mean, there were Zenyatta SIGNS, for God’s sake!
Jim C:
Totally agree with all of that. I’ve NEVER seen Zenyatta really extend for more than a few jumps. Last year’s Hirsch had her reaching out a bit, but she’s never been fully extended and she always finishes like she’s just getting going. To me, that’s what was so amazing about the BC Classic. She just zipped by those boys like she always does. It doesn’t seem to matter what’s in front of her. Even in the Vanity, her ears are going back and forth the entire way. I haven’t heard the Byk show but I read about it. He sounds like a tool. It’s one thing to have a differing opinion but don’t lose your mind over it, buddy! I don’t actually care about entering the “how good is she” debate. All I know is that when I go see her run, I know I’m in for something extraordinary. I like Rachel just fine. I thought her Kentucky Oaks was magnificent. I followed her all year and didn’t have a problem with her being HOTY. I did, however, have a problem with John Shirreffs not winning, but that’s water under the bridge. What I can’t understand is why people seem to be so dead-set against acknowledging that Zenyatta is doing amazing things. What’s up with that?
July 27th, 2010 at 10:15 pm
Correcting my post #52. Byk said that Rachel Alexandra was deserving of Horse of the Year even if she had a walk-over in the Woodward, not the Haskell.
I agree that reasonable minds can differ over whether Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta was more deserving of Horse of the Year. My point was that Byk has zero credibility for making the Woodward-walk-over comment, in addition to his likening Zenyatta to no better than Lava Man or Best Pal. (The latter two were excellent horses, to be sure; I am particularly fond of Lava Man. But he’s no Zenyatta, and to compare the two is absurd).
July 27th, 2010 at 10:38 pm
RHill,
Didn’t Redding Colliery and Majesticperfection have track records at Lone Star and Prairie Meadows, respectively? The both received extremely high Beyer numbers as well, even higher than Zenyatta.
Do you think that Redding Colliery or Majesticperfection are better than Zenyatta?
Do you think that Redding Colliery or Majesticperfection would beat Zenyatta in the Classic?
Or how about Emerald Downs where world records are threatened on a daily basis?
The track record that Quality Road has came in the Hal’s Hope, a Grade 3 race against extremely inferior competition.
Musket Man has ran four races this year after competing in two of the Classics last year. He has only one win in an ungraded stakes. He does have a habit of finishing behind Warrior’s Reward (twice), a horse that up to April had only wins in allowance company.
Quality Road has never (Travers, JGCC) shown he can win past a mile and 1/8.
No, I don’t hope his is injured. I actually think he will run in the BC Mile-a race more to his specialty.
July 27th, 2010 at 10:57 pm
Jim C,
Thanks for fighting the good fight, but this debate goes way back in history and will continue well after both you and me are lone gone.
It’s called east coast bias.
Remember the movie Seabiscuit. It was the arrogant east coast owner of War Admiral against ordinary, everyday people of Seabiscuit.
Or how about Swaps against Nashua.
Or how about Shoemaker against Acaro.
Or how about Majestic Prince against Arts and Letters.
Or how about Sunday Silence against Easy Goer. This one really gets me. Easy Goer was the odds on favorite, like 2-5 or 1-2 everytime they met except the Belmont Stakes where Sunday Silence was trying to win the Triple Crown and was only 8-5.
Rachel Alexandra against Zenyatta is just another chapter.
Bloodhorse just finished a poll about the greatest female racehorse in American in the last 50 years - Zenyatta clobbered Ruffian by almost 2 to 1 in first place votes.
DRF (Jay Hoydey) is having the same poll going on right now. Zenyatta leads again.
July 28th, 2010 at 1:32 am
Betty,
No, I don’t think either of those two horses are better than Zenyatta. I think she’s a fine, fine mare. She’s just not the best older horse in training, in my opinion. Also, regarding your comment about 9f+ distance, Zenyatta hasn’t won on dirt going further than 9 furlongs. As far as I’m concerned she still needs to prove she can get it (personally, I think she can).
And you are very wrong about the track record. QR ran the Donn (Gr. 1) in 1:47.49 seconds, beating his own track record of 1:47.72 seconds (Set in the Fla Derby, also a Gr. 1). His margin of victory was also a race record. See for yourself: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55238/quality-road-breaks-own-track-record-in-donn.
Let’s agree to disagree on QR’s ability. I’m saying he’s still the best older horse in training, and that he can get the 1 1/4 with no problem.
July 28th, 2010 at 2:06 am
John,
I hear you about the East Coast bias. I am actually from Chicago, so I have no natural West Coast bias. (I moved to SoCal a few years ago, but remain a big White Sox fan to this day).
I am not trying to claim West Coast horses are better. The SoCal male handicap division is very weak this year, particularly after Mace Siegel lost his mind and shipped Rail Trip to Dutrow’s barn to grow a fifth leg. And my favorite horse of all time, until Zenyatta came along, was Ruffian, who never raced outside of NY-NJ. All “1s” in the PPs. But I am too young to actually have seen Ruffian race. My wife and i have seen Zenyatta up close in the paddock many times, so we have more of a personal connection to her.
Funny how you mention Sunday Silence vs. Easy Goer. Sunday Silence won the head-to-head match-ups in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Breeders’ Cup Classic; Easy Goer won in the Belmont Stakes (a brilliant performance, to be sure). So Sunday SIlence had a 3-1 edge. Yet to THIS DAY, there are some East Coasters who will not let it go, and trash Sunday Silence in internet forums, and claim Easy Goer was the better horse. For instance. check out the comments, from only one day ago, accompanying the Youtube clip from the 1989 Breeders’ Cup Classic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUmxQg0wHOk
I am prepared to celebrate the grreatness of any horse, no matter where they are based. But you are right, there are some East Coasters (e.g., Steve Byk, Andrew Beyer, Bill Finley, Amanda Duckworth, Paul Moran, Andy Serling, most of the DRF turf writers) who refuse to accept the fact that a great horse can come out of California.
July 28th, 2010 at 12:12 pm
RHill:
Saying that Zenyatta has to prove she can get 10F on dirt is kinda disingenuous, isn’t it? Sure, she hasn’t run 10F on dirt but could there possibly be a person on the planet who doesn’t think she can get that distance? Of all the horses in contention for the Classic, she’s the most likely to get 10F on dirt. The notion that synthetics are to dirt like bees are to bicycles is just bizarre. As for Quality Road getting 10F “with no problem,” really? There isn’t a scenario in which he won’t be able to get 10F? I always worry about that with speed horses. And his two 10F races have been fine, but not spectacular. So is surface your only consideration? Quality Road definitely has the pedigree, with that Strawberry Road on the bottom, but his running style could hinder him. Whereas Zenyatta was made for 10F on any surface. Personally, I would love to see Quality Road in the Dirt Mile. He could be unspeakably brilliant in that race and if he won and Zenyatta lost, he’d be HOTY.
Jim:
I was a HUGE Easy Goer fan. Still am to this day. But I can’t say he was a better horse than Sunday Silence. I didn’t think Pat Day did him many favors but the head-to-head match-up is pretty clear. And speaking of Rail Trip, never have I switched allegiances to root so heartily against a horse.
July 29th, 2010 at 12:23 am
@Jim C.
“Beyers do not take into account weight carried, slow pace, and lost ground. ”
Of course they don’t because they weren’t created to do that. The figure only measures the speed of the performance in relation to the speed of the track. All those other factors you mentioned are left to the horseplayer to use at his/her discretion to weigh the overall performance. Beyer figures are an important tool, but not the only tool.
“Beyer also does not like Zenyatta to begin with, and has absolutely no qualms about arbitrarily throwing out the speed figured compelled by his normal rules, and instead assign an ad hoc number based on his opinion of the horse, as he did with Blind Luck (another California horse) in the Delaware Oaks. Beyer’s “adjustments” usually involve a California-based horse.”
If you’ve read any of Beyer’s work over the past decades, he’s admitted that his figures work best on dirt racing, where speed is king. Grass racing is a whole different ballgame and that’s why one doesn’t see many turf Beyers above a 110. The same with synthetic surfaces, and he’s admitted in print that he’s constantly revising his formula for all synthetic surfaces due to their general inconsistency relative to dirt.
What you claim are “adjustments” he refers to as “projections.” In other words, the figure of the winner needs to make sense as well as the one assigned to the second horse, third horse, etc based on lengths beaten. That’s why Blind Luck’s raw figure for the Delaware Oaks was projected downward, because if his associates gave Blind Luck a huge figure for that race then the runner-up would have earned one as well. And that simply didn’t make sense based on her prior efforts. Beyer revised the winning figure earned by Easy Goer in the 1989 Wood Memorial (East Coast bias?) for exactly the same reasons…there was no way Rock Point and whoever ran third were the second and third best 3yos in the country off that one performance.
Consider the projection method a quality assurance mechanism. Really, there’s no geographical bias involved.
July 29th, 2010 at 12:43 am
@John
“It’s called east coast bias. Remember the movie Seabiscuit. It was the arrogant east coast owner of War Admiral against ordinary, everyday people of Seabiscuit.”
Seabiscuit was bred and raced early in his career by the Phipps family. Hardly an ordinary or everyday upbringing. I might have been biased too considering the horse was a Wheatley reject whose Eastern form prior to 1937 was mediocre and included claiming appearances. I’m sure a lot of East Coasters remembered that. Not saying it was right, but their “bias” is explainable.
“Or how about Swaps against Nashua.”
What about them? They both won Horse of the Year titles and induction into the Hall of Fame. No bias here.
“Or how about Shoemaker against Arcaro.”
Each rider spent a lot of time riding on the opposite coast (Arcaro at Santa Anita, Shoemaker in New York). They were universally admired.
“Or how about Majestic Prince against Arts and Letters.”
Not sure what the beef is here. Arts and Letters was technically closer to winning the Triple when losing the first two legs by a head each, then romping by five in the Belmont. He thrashed older horses three times. They were both great. Sorry MP was so infirm.
“Or how about Sunday Silence against Easy Goer. This one really gets me. Easy Goer was the odds on favorite, like 2-5 or 1-2 everytime they met except the Belmont Stakes where Sunday Silence was trying to win the Triple Crown and was only 8-5.”
Sunday Silence beats Easy Goer 3 of 4 meetings and you complain about the greater pari-mutuel support for Easy Goer? As someone who rooted against Easy Goer every time, I was long ago satisfied that Horse of the Year deservedly went to his rival. All the rest is trivial nonsense.