Archive for the ‘Wagering’ Category

It was billed as the “Biggest Vegas Qualifier Ever,” but horseplayers who paid $250 to enter Saturday’s TwinSpires.com contest in hopes of getting a berth in the annual National Handicapping Championship might call it the biggest online screw-up since the Churchill Downs-owned wagering platform melted down on Kentucky Derby Day earlier this year.

Midway through Saturday’s 15-race contest, many of the 550 entrants were unable to make their online selections. Instead they got an error message saying “database connection failed; too many connections.” The problem went on for at least five races, and there was no communication from TwinSpires.com to participants. “Obviously, it was not pleasant for the players,” one contestant wrote to the Paulick Report.

Vernon Niven, president of TwinSpires.com and executive vice president of Churchill Downs Inc., told the Paulick Report a decision was made to cancel the contest, refund all entry fees and reschedule the qualifying event as soon as possible. Fifteen berths were scheduled to be awarded for the National Handicapping Championship, to be held in Las Vegas Jan. 23-24. Prize money in that event, sponsored by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association and Daily Racing Form, is expected to be $1 million.

“We had a database failure with the contest engine that overloaded some queues and caused the login process to freeze,” Niven told the Paulick Report. “Not every player was affected but due to the nature of this we had to cancel the contest and will be refunding everyone.”

No wagers were processed incorrectly, according to Niven, although he said the issue also prevented TwinSpires.com telephone operators from placing wagers via telephone. Some TwinSpires customers not involved in the handicapping contest also experienced log-in problems.

“It’s a huge embarrassment for all of us, and we pride ourselves in our contests,” Niven added. “It’s a slap in our players’ faces. We’ll look at who was affected and how they were affected.”

Saturday’s problem, on top of the Derby Day online wagering malfunction, comes from a company that hired a CEO in Bob Evans with a tech-savvy reputation and has a “think tank” division based in California’s Silicon Valley.

“CDI, which promotes itself as racing’s technology company has failed to deliver,” a contest player wrote to the Paulick Report. “I know I’ll be cancelling my account after this and the Derby Day fiasco.”

“We do pride ourselves on having an outstanding technology team and are working on this as best we can,” Niven said. “We did have problems on Derby Day 2008. That was a different issue – a wagering platform problem. We fixed that issue, as evidenced by Breeders’ Cup Day. This was a different issue. It is one of those things that our guys missed. It was a programming error on our part having to do with database queries that allowed our queues to overflow.

“Our players should not have to worry about that. We are contacting our players to let them know that we apologize and that we will be refunding them within 24 hours.”

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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The dispute that’s prevented out-of-state horseplayers from betting on Hollywood Park races through account wagering or advance deposit wagering (ADW) companies is about money, of course. Isn’t it always? The same issues shut down account wagering on Churchill Downs, Calder Race Course and other tracks earlier this year.

No one who’s been paying attention to the hot-button issue of revenue distribution of account wagering dollars can say they didn’t see this coming.

Thoroughbred Owners of California has drawn a line in the sand against the ADWs, saying they deserve a more equitable share of ADW revenue from wagers made both in California and out-of-state. As more dollars shift from on-track or traditional simulcast locations to ADWs, the TOC claims, horsemen are getting a smaller slice of the action to fund purses. “We’ve been saying it for years, and the time is finally here,” said TOC president Drew Couto. “We’re not going to consent (to previous agreements).”

Horsemen’s associations have the contractual right through the federal Interstate Horse Racing Act to withhold simulcast or account wagering. However, it wasn’t until the creation last year of the Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Group, which assists local horsemen’s organizations with ADW contract negotiations in at least 17 states, that horsemen began to aggressively exercise that right. TOC helped create THG and Couto serves as vice president of the new organization. THG acts in a similar capacity to the American Society of Composers, Authors and Publishers (ASCAP), which negotiates and collects licensing fees on the use of copyrighted music created by its members.

While the dispute involves four ADW companies, the most vocal critic of TOC and THG is David Nathanson, president of TVG, the leading horse racing cable channel and largest ADW company. Since the Hollywood Park fall meeting began Wednesday, TVG has used its television and online platforms to urge fans to contact TOC with their complaints.

“The TOC decision is bad for everyone involved in horseracing,” TVG president David Nathanson said in a statement. “Purses are being cut. Horsemen will lose money. Hollywood Park will lose revenue. Worst of all, this action hurts the fans when the industry needs them the most.”

Hollywood Park already has announced purse cuts.

Couto sees it differently. “We’re trying to build a model where everyone can prosper,” he said. “(TVG) didn’t listen to us for seven years because we weren’t working with other groups. Now they are listening because they don’t have a choice.”

Couto presented a detailed report on ADW wagering and revenue distribution during a meeting of the California Horse Racing Board in mid-October that showed how revenue to both in- and out-of-state horsemen and tracks is being squeezed with the growth of account wagering. “Up to about 72% of ADW revenues are retained by ADW companies, and overall about 50% is retained by those four companies,” Couto said. “We don’t believe that’s equitable or in the best long-term interest of the industry.”

TVG disagrees with Couto’s assessment of the distribution share that TVG has been paying, saying that it paid 67% to tracks and horsemen on wagers made during the 2008 Hollywood Park spring meeting.

Complicating matters in the current ADW dispute is what many see as a conflict of interest with Hollywood Park president Jack Liebau, who also serves as chairman of the board of Youbet, one of the four ADW companies involved in contract talks. Hollywood Park is expected to close next year, so some question whether or not Liebau is concerned more with the profitability of Youbet than he is with Hollywood Park. However, Couto has said Youbet and Magna Entertainment’s Xpressbet have engaged in good-faith negotiations. TVG and TwinSpires, the ADW platform owned by Churchill Downs, have not, he said.

“We are on our seventh version of a model that would assure ADW companies of content for the next three years at slightly higher rates than they currently pay,” said Couto “The rates do escalate if ADW handle grows by 20% over three consecutive quarters. That recognizes that the ADWs incur no incremental cost in growth.”

Nathanson insists that TOC is turning down a deal that would bring horsemen and the tracks $500,000 more in revenue than they received in 2007. “The only reason they are withholding the signal,” he said, “is to benefit this out-of-state horsemen’s consortium (THG). It doesn’t make economic sense. We are ready and willing to sit side by side and face to face any time to resolve these issues. Ultimately these need to be rational decisions as opposed to decisions that aren’t in the best interest of their own constituency.”

Couto flatly rejects Nathanson’s contention. In a letter to TOC members posted on the organization’s Web site, Couto wrote: “To the contrary, CA Thoroughbred interests would have received over $165,000 more from TVG alone, and over $633,000 from all four licensed ADW providers during the spring meet alone! Over the entire calendar year, North and South, that adds up to millions more in purse revenues for California owners! “

“We have cut back on our Hollywood Park coverage,” Nathanson said. “We are showing 100% of Hollywood Park’s races, but when you are cutting off a large chunk of the revenue we can’t afford to send a full-fledged crew down there to do special shows. We had to eliminate the popular All-Access show because of this.”

“Nathanson is misleading people,” Couto said. “He’s saying let’s make one group happy and screw the rest. We had no success getting higher rates with the TVGs of the world. We got together, shared information, took it back to our boards and said, ‘Here’s what we’ve learned.’ Our boards individually said, ‘We’re getting screwed.’ The only way we can get the TVGs of the world to change is for us to say,’Enough is enough.’

“These guys have had seven years to work with each of the horsemen’s associations,” Couto added. “They created the situation, and yes, horsemen are saying we are going to solve this once and for all for everybody, so we can move on, so this industry can get healthy again.”

 Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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There are many ways to look at this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships from a business and sporting standpoint, and not all examinations are going to lead to the same destination.

The most important question is whether or not the 2008 Breeders’ Cup was a success or failure. Was the decision to hold the Cup at a racetrack with a synthetic surface a wise move? Has the expansion of the world championships from eight races in one day to 14 races in two days helped or diluted the event?

How is success or failure of the Breeders’ Cup measured? Is it attendance, pari-mutuel handle, revenue, TV ratings, racing results, international participation?

It’s difficult to measure some of these factors because the circumstances of the Breeders’ Cup have changed so much between 2008 and previous years, rendering it an apples to oranges comparison. Making those comparisons even more challenging are the current economic conditions that have hit all levels of society this year, from Wall Street bankers to blue-collar workers. Virtually every industry is feeling a severe impact.

Putting that aside, last year’s Breeders’ Cup at Monmouth Park was the first time the event was stretched over two days, and handle totaled just over $147 million ($31.5 on the Friday program and $115.7 on Saturday) despite poor weather and messy track conditions (a near monsoon came through New Jersey during Friday’s program and the track was very sloppy on Saturday). This year’s two-day handle increased by only 5.5%, to $155.5 million  ($47.9 million on Friday, $107.6 million on Saturday), despite perfect weather and the addition of three new Breeders’ Cup races. Comparisons are for the whole cards, including non-Breeders’ Cup races run at Monmouth Park last year and Santa Anita this year.

Steve Crist’s weekend blog at DRF.com (Friday, Saturday), which detailed the race-by-race betting figures for the last three years of the Breeders’ Cup, shows that handle dropped sharply on the races moved from the Saturday card in 2007 to Friday (Filly & Mare Turf, Juvenile Fillies, Ladies’ Classic) this year. That makes perfect sense, since there were fewer people betting Friday’s program this year than there were betting Saturday’s program last year. But there were five Breeders’ Cup races on Friday this year, when the all of the filly and mare races were packaged as "Filly Friday" or "Ladies Day," compared with three in 2007, leading to the increase in Friday-to-Friday comparisons.

Handle dropped virtually across the board on Saturday’s races this year, with the day’s total handle declining by 7%, from $115.7 million in 2007 to $107.6 million in 2008. It was the lowest handle on a Saturday Breeders’ Cup since 1999, when $100.3 million was bet on the races from Gulfstream Park.

Santa Anita’s on-track handle of $11.8 million was down almost 10% from the $12.7 million wagered on-track at Monmouth Park in 2007 and a steep decline of 33% from the 2006 Saturday Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs, when $18.3 million was bet on-track during the one-day event.

Saturday’s on-track business was the lowest for a Breeders’ Cup since 1997, when $11.2 million was wagered at Hollywood Park. The last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita, in 2003, one-day on-track handle totaled $16.3 million. This year’s two-day on-track handle was $18.7 million.

The economic climate has not been good for racing in 2008. Most major race meetings have experienced double-digit declines in business. For the Breeders’ Cup to increase handle from 2007 is an accomplishment, though not a major one when considering both the additional races and superior weather conditions.

It is difficult to say there has not been a dilution of the event based on the early evidence. Do the positive benefits outweigh any negatives? I think it’s too early to tell.

Attendance was up this year from 2007, but that should have been a no-brainer following the poor weather at Monmouth Park. Breeders’ Cup officials got greedy with ticket prices and, to their credit, have admitted as much. The increase in prices was outrageous, especially for the Friday program, and it is hoped they will be scaled back considerably next year.

The racing was spectacular on both days – and safe. More than a few people commented at the conclusion of the Breeders’ Cup that no one died or suffered any serious injuries, a sad commentary on the bumpy road the sport has been traveling in recent years. The Pro-Ride synthetic track was fast and safe, though it appeared to compromise some horses who had only raced on conventional dirt tracks and help those horses with synthetic track or turf experience. 

Synthetic surfaces have increased the difficulty of handicapping, and running the traditional Breeders’ Cup dirt races on the Pro-Ride track may have led some big players to downsize their bets. The Classic, according to Crist’s figures, handled $24.3 million in bets this year, down from $30.1 million at Monmouth Park last year and $37.7 million at Churchill Downs in 2006.

The dominance of European horses was widely embraced by Breeders’ Cup officials, including president Greg Avioli, who sees international participation as the last, best hope for further growth in pari-mutuel handle. The success of Raven’s Pass and four other European-based winners on Saturday’s program will ensure enthusiastic participation from European horsemen when the races return to Santa Anita in 2009, but there is no guarantee that’s going to mean greater interest among horseplayers outside of North America. There is a conceivable backlash among American breeders who provide the financial foundation of the Breeders’ Cup program through foal and stallion nominations. Some of them view this as an American event, and they would be happier if the considerable purse money stayed in this country. On the other hand, those breeders who want to reach an international audience with their sale yearlings may cheer the success of European-based runners.

The Breeders’ Cup will conduct a post-mortem on the event to determine what worked and what didn’t.  Many have said the Oak Tree Racing Association and Santa Anita did a terrific job from a logistical standpoint, and there may not be a more telegenic racing facility in America in late October than the "Great Race Place." There were many people critical of the decision to hold the event at Santa Anita in consecutive years, but those critics surely are fewer in number following this year’s Breeders’ Cup

Provided that no major changes are made in the format, holding the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita next year will be more of an apples to apples comparison, allowing Cup officials to assess whether or not the expansion from one day to two was a sound decision.

Top to bottom, this may not be the most talented group of Breeders’ Cup horses that’s ever been assembled, but it’s the biggest handicapping challenge I can ever recall, especially considering new races like the Marathon, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile and Juvenile Turf.

As mentioned yesterday, the Breeders’ Cup Web site has loads of good information, including race schedules and post times, wagering menu, free Equibase past performances, a useful wagering calculator, a list of simulcast locations and advice for beginners. You can bet the Breeders’ Cup races through any of the approved account wagering companies.

My handicapping philosophy is to beat the favorite whenever possible, since the average percentage of winning favorites is around 33%. You might discern from the following selections that I think the Europeans are going to have a big day on Saturday. The factors leading me to believe that will be true are 1) the synthetic surface that some Europeans train on; 2) the tighter medication rules that specifically ban anabolic steroids for the first time; 3) the quality of European horses being sent to this year’s event.

Here’s my advance prognostication on the day’s nine championship races. Good luck and safe racing to all.

Special note: please be sure to check back in to the Paulick Report, beginning around 3 p.m.  Eastern, for my live blog of Filly Friday. I’ll also be live blogging Saturday’s nine races, beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern.

Marathon
This looks like a two-horse race between European runner Sixties Icon and Zappa (whose namesake, the late rocker Frank Zappa, was the founder of the Mothers of Invention and was a real-life sixties icon).  That works for me, but it’s an all chalk exacta. I give the edge to Sixties Icon, in part because of jockey Frankie Dettori’s experience edge at mile and a half races. Zappa is sharp and may try to steal the race under Garrett Gomez. Muhannak has plenty of synthetic track experience in Europe and likes the distance. Cedar Mountain  will be closing late.

Selections: 1-Sixties Icon 2-Zappa 3-Muhannak 4- Cedar Mountain

Turf Sprint
One of the great things about the Breeders’ Cup is finding a horse you absolutely love and then discovering that it’s a longshot. That’s the case with Only Answer, a French-based filly in the care of the legendary horseman Andre Fabre, who is in top echelon of Breeders’ Cup trainers. I think she has an excellent chance to beat the boys in this spot, and Santa Anita’s ace morning line maker Jeff Tufts has her pegged at 20-1 on the morning line. Jockey Olivier Peslier, in my opinion, is as good a big-race rider as there is in the world, and he knows this filly well. The downhill turf course is a tricky one for horse and rider, with the run across the main track causing difficulty for some. It’s one of the best “horses for the course” plays in racing, which makes local runners California Flag and Get Funky formidable challengers in here. Fleeting Spirit has a lot of class, as does Diabolical, either of whom are good enough on their best days to win. I’m going for the price play.

Selections: 1-Only Answer 2-Fleeting Spirit 3-Get Funky 4-Diabolical

Dirt Mile
The status of Mast Track is in doubt as I write this, and I would be very surprised if trainer and owner Robert Frankel runs him on Saturday. If he is scratched, that’s going to make things a lot easier for Well Armed, a Tiznow gelding who seems to have found a perfect spot here, though I’d prefer  him to have drawn more of an inside post position. The Eoin Harty runner can go to the lead or rate, depending on the circumstances, and the mile distance suits him perfectly. Surf Cat should be more effective at this distance, too, after running dull races in his last two starts. Bruce Headley has tightened the veteran up with some quick works. No one seems to have more confidence in his horse than Wayne Catalano, and there’s a lot to like about Lewis Michael, who grabs the advantageous rail post. Pyro’s a tough one to assess in here. His only synthetic track try at Keeneland was a disaster, but all synthetic tracks aren’t the same.

Selections: 1-Well Armed 2-Surf Cat 3-Lewis Michael 4-Pyro

Turf Mile
Irish-bred filly Goldikova has made few mistakes in her eight-race career for French trainer Freddie Head, who has enough confidence to run her against colts here at her best distance. She’s drawn perfectly in the four post and has big-race rider Olivier Peslier in the saddle. It’s not the strongest Mile field we’ve seen. Shakis is a game old-timer who always finishes with a rush. If Alan Garcia can avoid traffic problems from the rail, he won’t be far away at the finish. Kip Deville ran a puzzler last time out in Canada on a yielding track for Rick Dutrow. I’d throw that race out as he goes for a defense of his crown. U S Ranger doesn’t win very many but usually gets up for a share of the money and has been facing tough company all year. Whatsthescript got an impossible post position on the outside.

Selections: 1-Goldikova 2-Shakis 3-Kip Deville 4-U S Ranger

Juvenile
Post positions really come into play here, with the two horses I like the most, Bushranger and Midshipman, drawn way outside, a distinct disadvantage in the relatively short run to the first turn. Munnings, who has chased juvenile division leader Vineyard Haven (not entered in the Breeders’ Cup by trainer Robert Frankel) in his last two starts, draws the much friendlier rail post for his first try around two turns. That’s enough to give him the edge in this spot for trainer Todd Pletcher, especially in a race without much early speed. The son of Speightstown should get the best trip under John Velazquez. Bushranger  may be the best horse and he’ll have to be overcome his 11 post. Street Hero has been steady since breaking his maiden in June and remains in top form for Myung Kwon Cho.

Juvenile Turf
Westphalia looks to me like the obvious choice here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is bet down to near favoritism from his 5-1 morning line. He’s in top form and has had a bit of a rest since his last win at Doncaster in mid-September. Coronet of a Baron obviously has is precocious and talented, and the shift from synthetic to turf by trainer Eoin Harty is an interesting move. Darley already has Midshipman going in the Juvenile and this gives them a good chance to sweep the two races. Of course, arch-rival Coolmore has Bushranger in the Juvenile and Westphalia in here, giving them a strong hand as well. The Darley-Coolmore rivalry will be interesting to follow throughout the two days. Bittel Road is unbeaten on turf and is the morning line choice, but he hasn’t seen this kind of competition yet. Donativum is in the more than capable hands of trainer John Gosden, who knows how to have a horse at peak form when it matters most.

Selections: 1-Westphalia 2-Coronet of a Baron 3-Bittel Road 4-Donativum

Sprint
Smallest number of runners in this race since 1986, obviously a byproduct of two new races: the Filly and Mare Sprint and Dirt Mile. I doubt that defending champ Midnight Lute scared anyone away based on his only start of the year, a dismal 10^th in the Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. He’s worked sensationally for Bob Baffert since then, but it’s hard to see him up sharp enough to beat the likes of Street Boss or In Summation. I give the clear nod here to the California horses, led by the Bruce Headley-trained Street Boss. My intuition tells me Bruce Headley didn’t have the son of Street Cry cranked to the max for the Ancient Title when second to Cost of Freedom, and recent works suggest he’s ready to roll here. In Summation is a thorough professional who can be counted on to run his race. Midnight Lute will be running late. Fatal Bullet has the best chance of upsetting the local horses’ applecart.

Selections: 1-Street Boss 2- In Summation 3-Midnight Lute 4-Fatal Bullet

Turf
While Europe’s bigshots were locking horns in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 5, Mike de Kock was bringing the top-class Eagle Mountain back to the races from a fractured pelvis and year layoff at Newmarket. The Rock of Gibraltor colt won the comeback, a Group 3 race at Newmarket, and some big money subsequently came in on the horse with a British bookmaker  to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The former Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien runner looked sharp in a morning spin at Santa Anita is primed for a big effort. Soldier of Fortune comes off a hard-fought defeat for O’Brien in the Arc. That was just his third race of the year and he might have another good one in him. Winchester turned in a monstrous performance at Arlington Park to win the Secretariat for Dermot Weld, far surpassing his European form. This is a big step up, but he showed a fondness for American style racing in that effort. Conduit completes my all- European superfecta. American turf horses appear weak again this year, but let’s not forget how English Channel romped in the 2007 Turf over supposedly superior Europeans.

Selections: 1-Eagle Mountain 2-Soldier of Fortune 3-Winchester 4-Conduit

Classic
By the time the finale rolls around, we should have a pretty good idea how European turf horses have adapted to Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride surface. I don’t have the benefit of knowing that right now, so I can only speculate how Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass will take to the track. But I guess we can say the same thing about Curlin, who has trained well on the track but never raced on a synthetic strip. Curlin may be the best horse we’ve seen in the last 10 years, in terms of his accomplishments if not his brilliance. But based on his last two victories over relatively weak competition, I think he’s beatable here. But who will beat him? Go Between, a synthetic track specialist who’s logged thousands of miles this year going from coast to coast? Casino Drive, the unbeaten but lightly raced, Japanese-trained sibling to two previous Belmont Stakes winners? Colonel John, the best 3-year-old in training following the retirement of Big Brown? The Aidan O’Brien duo of Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator, who have combined for nine Group 1 victories on European turf this year? All have a realistic chance, but I’m taking the John Gosden-trained Raven’s Pass for the upset under Frankie Dettori. The Elusive Quality 3-year-old colt hasn’t gone beyond a mile, but Gosden knows from his previous experience in California that most top-class Europeans can stretch their ability out in the U.S. Raven’s Pass  has had a month off since defeating Henrythenavigator in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and is in absolute top form. Curlin will run hard as always, but he’s had a long year for trainer Steve Asmussen. Go Between is a steady performer for Mott, who’s handled him intelligently all year. Colonel John may be the best 3-year-old, but the jury is still out on how good this year’s sophomore crop really is.

Selections: 1-Raven’s Pass 2-Curlin 3-Go Between 4-Colonel John

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Cash in a couple of T-bills and get ready to make some serious, if not totally sound, investments on this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships. You’re sure to at least have some fun, which is more than you’ve had watching the Dow Jones Industrial Average the last several weeks.

The Breeders’ Cup betting menu has my head spinning with win, place and show wagers, exactas, trifectas, superfectas (at a dime a pop!), daily doubles, picks threes, pick fours, pick sixes, and even a couple of super high fives. If math isn’t your strong suit, Breeders’ Cup officials have even put together a special wagering calculator to see how much some of those bets will cost. They’re even offering free past performances, courtesy of Equibase. All account wagering companies will be taking bets or you can go to your local simulcast outlet. If you’re a novice, read some of these helpful handicapping hints.

For those interested in other people’s opinions, I’ve handicapped Friday’s races below (check back on Friday to get the Paulick Report lowdown on Saturday’s nine Breeders’ Cup races). I cut my teeth handicapping on the West Coast for eight years with Daily Racing Form in the 1980s, and have covered 22 of the 24 Breeders’ Cups . But it’s not widely known that I began my career in the business as an underaged jockey riding competitively on the Northern Illinois bush-corral circuit!

I’ve used all of my pari-mutuel winnings over the years for a vacation home in the Grand Caymans … which is still in the planning stages!

California-based horses will have a built-in advantage, not so much because of the track but because of the climate. Many horses coming in from colder regions have a hard time adapting.

Remember … bet early and often! I’m pretty sure I’ve got five straight winners here … but, please, tell me where I’m wrong!

Selections: 1- Consequence 2-Laragh 3-April Pride 4-Heart Shaped

Selections: 1- Stardom Bound 2-Be Smart 3-Doremifasollatido 4-Pursuit of Glory

FILLY & MARE TURF
Halfway to Heaven looks to have the perfect running style for this year’s edition of the Filly & Mare Turf: enough speed to either take the early lead or sit just off the pace and pounce when called upon by Johnny Murtagh. This looks like a deep field with the likes of course specialist Wait a While and ultra-consistent Mauralakana, but my suspicion is that the Europeans are superior to the home team. My biggest concern with Halfway to Heaven is if she might be “over the top” with six starts this year and a race in early October. I’m throwing another 3-year-old filly, Visit, into the mix for my exotic bets. She’s never gone this far, but a mile and quarter on the Santa Anita turf isn’t nearly as demanding as it is in Europe, and I always respect horses trained by Michael Stoute (racing’s Fred Flintstone lookalike). Can Folk Opera complete a European sweep in the trifecta? That’s where my money will be.

Selections: 1- Halfway to Heaven 2-Visit 3-Folk Opera 4-Wait a While

LADIES’ CLASSIC
The plan is to be so far ahead of the game by the time the Ladies’ Classic field enters the starting gate (around 6:15 p.m. Eastern), we are tempted to sit this one out and enjoy the sheer perfection of Zenyatta. But since we plan to be playing with other people’s money, let’s take a shot that the heaviest favorite on the day can be beaten. If there is an upset, I think it will be the only 3-year-old in the field, Music Note, who hasn’t stepped out of her division yet in stakes competition (though she beat a field of older mares in an allowance race in May). Her Gazelle win was nothing more than a public workout, and she’ll have to step up a bit from there to beat Zenyatta. If she can get an early jump on the favorite at the top of the stretch, she might be able to get the job done. Ginger Punch is tough as nails, but she couldn’t hold off Cocoa Beach in the slop last time out in the Beldame. I think she reverses the decision at Santa Anita but will have to settle for a minor award in defense of her title.

Selections 1-Music Note 2- Zenyatta 3-Ginger Punch 4-Cocoa Beach

Good luck and safe racing to all!

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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Under normal circumstances, handle on the 2008 Breeders’ Cup World Championships would blow past all previous betting records. But the economic crisis gripping the United States and many other countries is anything but normal.

This year’s World Championships take place over two days at Santa Anita Park Oct. 24-25 and includes 14 Breeders’ Cup races, up from the 11 held at Monmouth Park in 2007 when the event was first expanded to two days.  Last year’s two-day handle was a Breeders’ Cup record $147 million ($31.5 million on the Friday card and $115.7 million on Saturday), but the total was below expectations by at least 10% because of the extremely wet weather conditions. The previous all-sources wagering record was set in 2006 when $140.3 million was wagered on eight Breeders’ Cup races on a single day at Churchill Downs.

Ken Kirchner, the president of FalKirk International and the longtime wagering consultant to the Breeders’ Cup, wouldn’t make any predictions about this year’s handle. “It’s hard to say where the economy is going to be in 10 days,” Kirchner told the Paulick Report. “Everybody has been down between 10% and 20% in wagering all summer and fall. Things can change quickly, but certainly the trend isn’t good.”

Kirchner hopes some fans have been stockpiling a bankroll for the big event. “It’s not a positive situation,” he said, “but we’re going to have very strong and full fields and some people may just be waiting for this as opposed to betting the run-of-the-mill races.”

Holding the Breeders’ Cup’s traditional dirt races on a synthetic surface doesn’t bother Kirchner. “The new (Pro-Ride) track seems to be playing fair,” he said. “If the horses show up, the bettors will follow.

Kirchner did say scheduling the Breeders’ Cup on the last weekend of the month is a disadvantage because of consumer spending habits. “Having it at the beginning of the month (when Social Security and other fixed income checks arrive) makes it 3% to 5% stronger,” he said.

The Breeders’ Cup had the first $100-million wagering day in North American racing history Nov. 6, 1999, at Gulfstream Park. That was the year the Filly & Mare Turf was added, making it an eight-race championship.

By comparison, Kentucky Derby day betting topped $100 million for the first time in 2000, and it’s grown significantly since. Churchill Downs now holds the North American record of $175 million established on the 2006 Kentucky Derby program. Add wagering from Friday’s Kentucky Oaks program ($33 million in 2006), and the total tops $208 million.

It’s clear the Breeders’ Cup braintrust is trying to emulate the success of the Friday Oaks/Saturday Derby format at Churchill Downs by bundling all of the filly and mare races on this year’s Friday program (and by requiring fans to purchase seats for both days as Churchill Downs has done with the Oaks and Derby). The Breeders’ Cup doesn’t have the cachet of the Kentucky Derby (or the Oaks for that matter), though that doesn’t mean the new format will not work.

With the additional Breeders’ Cup races, better weather and a more traditional big race venue (Santa Anita vs. Monmouth Park), handle will increase this year. My prediction is for $175 million in wagers over the two championship days. Without all the economic uncertainty, $200 million would seem realistic.

SPEAKING OF BETTING, REMEMBER THAT JUNE 28 RACE AT PHILADELPHIA PARK when wagers were allowed at some Florida simulcast sites after the race had been run? The Thoroughbred Racing Protective Bureau issued a report and sent it to the tracks involved – Philadelphia Park and Tampa Bay Downs – but according to Peter Berube, Tampa Bay’s vice president and general manager, he still doesn’t understand exactly how the Philly Park past-post bets occurred.

“I have the report,” Berube told the Paulick Report last week. “It’s highly technical but draws no conclusions and places no blame on anybody. Apparently it was a sequence of events that took place between the tote companies.”

Scientific Games (formerly Autotote), which handles wagers for Philadelphia Park, was experiencing technical problems with its system that day at races from Philly and Delaware Park. Tampa Bay Downs and 11 other North Florida wagering sites (dog tracks and jai-alai frontons) use AmTote. A communications breakdown between the systems failed to send a stop-bet signal to AmTote.

Joe Wilson, chief operating officer of Philadelphia Park, did not return phone calls seeking a comment.

According to Berube, the past-post wagering was limited to his track, with most of the past-post bets placed by one customer, who is known as a big bettor at Tampa Bay. “What’s in the report would lead me to believe that there was no abnormal spike in bets overall,” Berube said. “We were the 14^th ranked site in terms of total bets (on the fourth race, the race in question), but first in cashes. We were the only site that had a negative settlement (with more winnings that money wagered).”

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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The following press release from the National Thoroughbred Racing Association is not good news, though not entirely unexpected. Handle in the third quarter (July-September) fell by almost 10%. The decline is not surprising, but it virtually confirms something I wrote the other  day saying that U.S. handle for 2008 will be at its lowest level since 1999. Don’t look for any bright spots in the fourth quarter in light of the current economic crisis. – Ray Paulick

The National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) and Equibase Company LLC today released the “Thoroughbred Racing Economic Indicators“ for United States and Canadian pari-mutuel wagering on U.S. Thoroughbred racing during the third quarter of 2008, as well as for U.S. purses and race days, with prior-year, third-quarter comparisons.

Investors haven’t been wild about Churchill Downs stock (CHDN), which closed at $46.45 Friday and hasn’t seen $50 a share since May 1. It’s 52-week high, $57.55, was achieved last December.

CEO Bob Evans and the TrackNet Media Group that was formed with Magna Entertainment to broker simulcast deals has refused to talk seriously with the Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Group, which is negotiating account wagering contracts with racetracks on behalf of local horsemen’s groups such as the Kentucky or Florida Horsemen’s Benevolent and Protective Associations. In fact, Churchill has filed anti-trust lawsuits against the organizations. Evans may be hoping that the longer he puts off dealing with the THG, the less resolve the horsemen will have to stick together in attempting to forge a better contract on account wagering.

That strategy doesn’t appear to be working. To the contrary, it looks more like Churchill Downs’ partner in TrackNet Media is bailing. Frank Stronach, the chairman and acting CEO of Magna Entertainment, sent out a press release a couple of weeks ago saying that Magna recognizes the THG as a beneficial national organization and is negotiating with THG.

SPEAKING OF WAGERING, hats off to Bloodhorse editor Dan Liebman for calling out the Jockey Club after it capitulated to Evans and to Churchill Downs’ biggest shareholder, Dick Duchossois, and decided to no longer provide the trade magazine with meet ending pari-mutuel handle figures. Churchill tracks under Evans and Duchossois have said that handle is no longer a meaningful statistic. Oh, really?

The decision by the Jockey Club to no longer provide this key economic indicator was disgraceful, but I wouldn’t hold out any hope the poobahs there will change their mind.