Archive for the ‘Thoroughbred Auctions’ Category

KEENELAND DAY THREE: DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUES

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008
(from Keeneland publicity department)

My White Corvette, dam of 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) winner Stardom Bound, brought top price of $825,000 on Wednesday at Keeneland’s November Breeding Stock Sale.

Barry Weisbord signed the ticket, on behalf of celebrity chef Bobby Flay, for the 10-year-old mare by Tarr Road. My White Corvette was not mated in 2008 since her weanling filly by Lion Heart was a May foal. She was consigned by Hunter Valley Farm, agent.

On Wednesday, Keeneland sold 224 horses for gross receipts of $24,698,000, down 42.1 percent from 2007 when 258 horses brought $42,638,000.  Average price of $110,259 decreased 33.3 percent from last year’s $165,264.  The median price of $82,500 was down 36.5 percent from $130,000 in 2007. The buy-back rate was 28.2%.

Keeneland November Cumulative Prices 
First Three Sessions: 
2002-08
Year Sold Revenue Average Median

2008

523

$114,725,000

$219,359

$125,000

2007

638

$221,137,000

$346,610

$190,000

2006

616

$194,352,000

$315,506

$190,000

2005

633

$200,002,000

$315,959

$200,000

2004

691

$202,533,500

$293.102

$150,000

2003

606

$165,541,000

$273,170

$135,000

2002

613

$134,944,000

$220,137

$110,000

Through the first three days, Keeneland has sold a total of 523 horses for $114,725,000, down 48.1 percent from last year’s $221,137,000 when 638 horses sold.  The average of $219,359 was down 36.7 percent from $346,610 in 2007, while the median of $125,000 decreased 34.2 percent from last year’s $190,000

“In general, given the state of the world today, it was a very good session,” said Geoffrey Russell, Keeneland’s director of sales. “What is good is that there is active trade here; and active trade with an international feel.”

Woodland Farm, the day’s leading buyer, purchased the session’s second-, third- and fourth-highest priced horses, paying $500,000 for Capeside Lady, in foal to Empire Maker; $385,000 for Sacred Feather, in foal to Giant’s Causeway; and $375,000 for Princess Patricia, in foal to Hard Spun.


Graded stakes winner Capeside Lady, a seven-year-old mare by Cape Town, was consigned by Dapple Stud, agent.

The six-year-old Sacred Feather is by Carson City out of graded stakes winner Marianna’s Girl, and a half-sister to such stakes winners as Marastani, Christine’s Outlaw, and Crimson Classic. Princess Patricia, a five-year-old mare by Aptitude, is a half-sister to recent Emirates Airlines Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) winner Forever Together. Both mares were consigned by Nursery Place, agent.

Keeneland’s November Breeding Stock Sale continues through Monday, November 17. Sessions begin at 10 a.m. daily.

 

RAY PAULICK’S TUESDAY UPDATES FROM KEENELAND SALE

Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

By Ray Paulick

Bloodstock prices continued their downward spiral on Tuesday during the second session of the Keeneland November breeding stock sale, and after two days total receipts are down almost 50% from one year ago and are the lowest in years.

The Lexington, Ky., sale company reported there were 150 horses sold on Tuesday for $42,006,000, a decline in revenue of 39% from the $69,435,000 gross in 2007. The average of $280,040 was a decline of 25% from $373,306 recorded last year, and the median fell by 27.3%, from $220,000 to $160,000. Tuesday’s buy-back rate was 34.2%, down from Monday’s 38.2% but still extremely high and an indication of how soft this market is.

Cumulative figures are worse, in part because last year’s opening session set an all-time record for gross revenue. After two days, Keeneland has sold 299 horses for $90,027,000, down 49.6% from a year ago when 380 horses brought $178.489,000 the first two days. The two-day average of $301,094 is a 35.9% drop from $469,734 in 2007, and the median fell by 32%, from $250,000 to $170,000. A higher number of horses, 315, were withdrawn from the catalogue (145) during the first two sessions or bought back by consignors (170), than the 299 that were sold. The aggregate buy-back rate is 36.2%.

Keeneland November Cumulative Prices for First Two Sessions: 
2002-08
Year Sold Revenue Average Median

2008

299

$90,027,000

$301,094

$170,000

2007

380

$178,489,000

$469,734

$250,000

2006

342

$149,675,000

$437,646

$275,000

2005

372

$157,438,000

$423,220

$270,000

2004

424

$162,463,500

$383,169

$200,000

2003

366

$140,093,000

$382,768

$190,000

2002

368

$111,859,500

$303,966

$167,500

The top lot to sell in the early stages was Hip 374, J Z Warrior, which agent Olin Gentry purchased for $1,125,000 on behalf of an unnamed female client from Washington state. J Z Warrior was the first racehorse or broodmare prospect to sell from the Zayat Stables consignment being handled by Eaton Sales. J Z Warrior is a 3-year-old stakes-winning filly by Harlan’s Holiday.

Half Queen, a 12-year-old Deputy Minister mare in foal to Distorted Humor, brought a higher hammer price of $1,650,000, but she was bought back by her owner. Hagyard Farm, agent, consigned the mare, who produced 2003 champion 2-year-old filly Halfbridled. 

The mood of the sale is anything but upbeat. Asked about the health of the market, one agent standing near the outside ring behind the sale pavilion pointed in the direction of a near empty viewing area. “That should tell you a lot right there,” he said. “There’s not many people here.”

However, another prominent commercial breeder said the prices represent a much-needed correction in a market that has been inflated in recent years by newcomers to the breeding industry. “Prices have been so out of whack for mares in recent years because of the presence of outfits like ClassicStar and a number of billionaires from other industries who decided to get into the breeding industry," he said. "They drove up mare prices to the point that they couldn’t possibly make money selling yearlings out of those mares, and that made it much more difficult for us. I think it’s a healthy change for commercial breeders who are in this for the long haul.”

One agent commented that he heard a rumor that as many as 20% of the horses being sold are “owned by banks.” A representative of one major lending institution said his bank had liens or interests in about 325 of the horses being sold. “There are a lot of horses in here where the money will go straight to the bank,” he said, adding it wasn’t that unusual an occurrence.

“There is still money out there to be borrowed,” he said in reference to the recent crisis in the banking industry and financial markets that resulted from the sub-prime mortgage fiasco in the real estate world. “The banks might be tightening the amount they’re willing to loan on a horse, maybe only 40% of its appraised value versus the 50% that had previously been the standard.” 

The session was topped by the $2.4 million Mushta, a racing filly from the Zayat Stables consigned by Eaton Sales, agent. Fran Abbott signed a ticket to buy the 3-year-old graded stakes winner on behalf of Betty Moran’s Brushwood Stable, The Empire Maker filly will continue to race under the care of trainer Bill Mott. Mushka, whose dam, Sluice, is a half sister to multiple grade I winner Lakeway.  Mushta won the Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes at Aqueduct last year. Zayat purchased Mushka for $1.6 million as a yearling at the 2006 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale.

Mushta was one of seven horses purchased for $1 million or more on Tuesday, compared with 11 during last year’s second session. The cumulative number of seven-figure purchases is 18, less than half of the 39 sold at this point in 2007.

"There’s no depth here," said one horseman. "The best mares are still selling, but below that top level it’s not good. And there’s virtually no market for older mares right now." 

“There was more uniformity to today’s session; it was more comparable to the Tuesday session last year," Geoffrey Russell, Keeneland’s director of sales, said in a press release. "We saw active bidding from a wide range of people and countries,” he added, noting that the market continued to place a premium on quality young race fillies.

Click here to see results and a summary of leading buyers and consignors.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report 

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RAY PAULICK’S MONDAY UPDATES FROM KEENELAND SALE

Monday, November 3rd, 2008

By Ray Paulick

The final numbers from Monday’s opening session of the 2008 Keeneland November breeding stock sale were not pretty, and the bad news is that it might get worse before it gets any better in an environment stung by turbulent stock exchanges around the world, high-profile bankruptcies in the financial markets and a stalled American economy.

First, the numbers: Keeneland reported selling 149 horses (broodmares, broodmare or racing prospects, and weanlings) from the 311 catalogued. The gross amount was $48,021,000, an average price of $322,289 and a median of $185,000. Those numbers are down substantially from last year’s opening session when 194 horses sold for $109,064,000, an average of $562,186 and median of $272,500. The declines are 56% in gross, 42.7% in average, and 32.1% in median price. Last year’s opening session was the strongest in the history of the Keeneland November sale, jumping 30% in gross revenue from the 2006 opening day.

The average and median prices don’t tell the whole picture. Of the 311 horses catalogued, there were more that didn’t sell than changed hands. Seventy lots were withdrawn and 92 horses, or 38.2% of the 241 through the ring, failed to meet their reserve price. The RNA or buy-back rate was twice as high as last year’s opening session, when 19.2% of those through the ring failed to sell.

Those are tough numbers for  breeders to swallow. In cases where breeders were not forced to sell to pay their bills, they had the luxury to withdraw their horses rather than selling them in a soft market. In instances where bank notes were due or credit lines have been tightened, mare owners had to suck it up and see what the market was willing to pay.

"It’s a bloodbath," one agent said midway through the session. One breeder said he took a beating on one mare sold early Monday and withdrew the rest.

Keeneland November Opening Sessions: 2002-08
Year Sold Revenue Average Median

2008

149

$48,021,000

$322,289

$185,000

2007

194

$109,064,000

$562,186

$272,500

2006

164

$83,795,000

$510,945

$297,500

2005

180

$98,121,000

$545,117

$315,000

2004

213

$80,976,500

$380,171

$185,000

2003

171

$69.170,000

$404,503

$180,000

2002

186

$58,851,000

$316,406

$170,000

In contrast to 2007, when a record 28 million-dollar horses were sold on the opening day, there were just 11 this year, led by the $3 million paid by John Ferguson, chief bloodstock adviser to Sheikh Mohammed’s Darley operation, for Hip 53, the grade I-winning mare Hystericalady, who most recently finished fifth behind Horse of the Year candidate Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic at Santa Anita Oct. 24. It’s doubtful Hystericalady will race again.

Ferguson was the day’s leading buyer, with six purchases totaling $8,710,000. Last year, Ferguson bought just four horses on the first day, but one of them was Playful Act, a mare who set a then-world record price of $10.5 million, who made up the bulk of his $18.5 million expenditures.

The atmosphere at Keeneland on Monday in no way matched the buzz that was created across town at Fasig-Tipton on Sunday night, which was highlighted by the $14-million sale of Broodmare of the Year Better Than Honour and the $5.7 million sale of presumptive 2-year-old filly champion Stardom Bound. But even those headline prices camouflaged a soft market.

Fasig-Tipton was packed Sunday night, in part by Thoroughbred enthusiasts who wanted to get a close look at Better Than Honour and Stardom Bound. It was a little reminiscent of the old Keeneland July yearling sale, when the Keeneland pavilion was filled with a combination of buyers, consignors, industry workers and "tourists." Monday’s atmosphere at Keeneland is strictly business, it seems. 

The tarmac at Bluegrass Field across Versailles Road is filled with private jets, suggesting that many of the industry’s wealthiest particpants are here. Comments from several consignors suggest the presence of those jets indicates the very high end of the broodmare market will be stable. Below that, however, there are fears of a major dropoff in prices. "Some breeders are in a tough spot," one consignor said. "They need to sell some mares to pay the bills, but they are selling into a very tough market right now."

Geoffrey Russell, Keeneland’s director of sales, made the following statement in a press release: "Last November opened with an historical and record-breaking session during which we sold 28 million-dollar horses versus 11 this year, including a $10.5 million broodmare; that’s a huge difference. Whether the difference is owed to the economy or to the catalog; it’s probably a factor of both. But this is marketplace where people come to trade horses; and we will successfully trade horses over the next two weeks; though probably not at the level we did last year.” 

Click here for Monday’s results, includilng a summary of leading buyers and consignors.

The sale continues through Monday, Nov. 17, with daily sessions beginning at 10 a.m.

A CLOSER LOOK AT SUNDAY’S FASIG-TIPTON SALE

While Fasig-Tipton’s Sunday night sale looked very strong at first glance, it had the same clearance problems that plagued Keeneland’s opening session on Monday. The published buy-back rate was 39.3% (59 RNAs from 150 offered), but there were also 39 lots withdrawn, meaning that 98 horses, more than half of those catalogued, failed to sell.

Fasig-Tipton November sale: 
2002-08
Year Sold Revenue Average Median

2008

91

$70,279,000

$772,297

$250,000

2007

107

$52,036,000

$486,318

$180,000

2006

170

$64,130,000

$377,235

$175,000

2005

112

$32,183,000

$287,348

$86,000

2004

201

$20,685,800

$102,914

$27,000

2003

59

$5,160,000

$87,458

$45,000

2002

36

$3,499,500

$97,208

$60,000

Fasig-Tipton reported 91 horses sold for $70,279,000, an average of $772,297 and median price of $250,000. Included in those sales were eight horses bought for $23,460,000 by Southern Equine Stables from the consignment of Hill ‘n’ Dale Sales Agency that were previously owned in partnership by Southern Equine and Hill ‘n’ Dale (including the world record-priced Better Than Honour, which sold for $14 million). Hill ‘n’ Dale owner John Sikura bought one from his consignment for $3.1 million. Stripping those nine transactions out, Fasig-Tipton still sold 82 horses for $43,719,000, an average price of $533,158 and median of $220,000, well ahead of last year’s average of $486,318 and median of $180,000. 

Either with or without the Hill ‘n’ Dale horses, it was an extremely strong market for top-class mares.

The increasing depth and quality of Fasig-Tipton’s November sale didn’t happen overnight, or with the purchase of the company by an associate of Dubai’s Sheikh Mohammed. Fasig-Tipton is in the very early stages of that new ownership, but already there have been significant enhancements in the physical plant on Newtown Pike (more are certain to come), along with news about coming improvements at the Humphrey S. Finney Pavilion in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

The accompanying table shows Fasig-Tipton’s stready growth in the November sale over the last eight years.

Perhaps more than anything else, the strength of Fasig-Tipton’s outstanding catalogue was the reason for Keeneland’s sluggish start on Monday. As one commercial breeder said, "Fasig-Tipton took a huge bite out of book one at Keeneland."

Earlier this year we wrote about the "new era of Fasig-Tipton" under the ownership of Synergy Investments, and included a number of comments from breeders, agents and buyers who hoped that Fasig-Tipton’s advancements would make Keeneland more customer friendly. Keeneland was called "arrogant" by a some of its customers in a subsequent Paulick Report article.

Based on comments by some mare owners, Keeneland is responding with a stronger recruiting effort, something Fasig-Tipton has been doing for years. Keeneland has held a powerful edge in market share in yearling and breeding stock sales, but the results from this fall indicate Fasig-Tipton is gaining ground.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK: BREEDERS BLEEDING RED INK

Monday, October 6th, 2008
By Ray Paulick

When Rob Whiteley managed the Foxfield commercial breeding operation for corporate raider Carl Icahn, he had to justify every dollar on the ledger sheets for the real-life Gordon Gekko. You couldn’t pull the wool over Icahn’s eyes on fiscal matters.

Today, free from Icahn, Whiteley runs his own operation, Liberation Farm, breeding and selling Thoroughbreds for the commercial market. He applies many of the lessons and disciplines he learned from his old boss. Coming out of the recent Keeneland September yearling sale, the most important marketplace for commercial breeders, Whiteley examined the profitability of the business he has dedicated himself to since leaving academia 25 years ago (his pre-racing resume includes Stanford, Rutgers, Harvard and the University of California at Berkeley).

The resulting article was published in the Thoroughbred Daily News last Friday, Oct. 3. If you haven’t read it, and you have any interest in the future of this business, Whiteley’s analysis is a must-read. (The TDN is a subscription-only site, but there is no charge for an online subscription.)

What Whiteley found may have been shocking to some, though not necessarily surprising to the many small, blue-collar breeding operations scattered across the rural landscape of Central Kentucky: breeders are bleeding red ink. Many of them face uncertain futures, even without the greater financial crisis brought on by tighter credit markets from the Wall Street/banking meltdown.

Whiteley found that fewer than one in five yearlings catalogued to the Keeneland September sale led to a break-even or profitable result for its breeder. He detailed the example of how a yearling produced through a $20,000 stud fee and selling for $70,000 at public auction (3.5 times the stud fee) does not cover all the expenses associated over the 30 months it took to plan, produce, raise and bring the horse to market.

The most profitable days of the September sale, of course, came at the front end, when not quite two of five yearlings catalogued (38% on days one and three, 37% on day two) broke even or sold for a profit. After the first eight sessions of the 15-day sale (in other words, all of the second half), profits were as thin as a Parisian runway model – the high was 14% of horses catalogued on day nine and the low 0% on day 15.

Worse, Whiteley’s expense assumptions in his profit-loss formula may be on the conservative side. He doesn’t factor in the general and administrative expenses that most businesses absorb or the three in 10 chance that a mare will have a non-productive year (barren, slipped or dead foal).

The problems breeders face are mounting. The price of hay, feed, fencing and vanning are quickly accelerating. Auction prices are retreating, and there is little being done on the national level to bring new end-users (horse owners) into racing. The industry is retracting on many fronts.

Not all breeders are affected equally. For those operations that are secondary businesses or hobbies for multi-millionaires or billionaires who inherited their money or made it in other industries, the losses may be used to write-off profits made elsewhere. Major breeders who stand high-end stallions have that lucrative end of their business to hold them up.

But where this hits especially hard is the backbone of the industry, the small mom-and-pop operations that may own a half-dozen mares, sell their best yearlings and race the rest. They don’t have income from other industries or trust funds to balance their spreadsheets, but they do, collectively, have a huge impact on the overall infrastructure of the horse industry.

Whiteley isn’t whining, and no one put to a gun to his head to buy all those mares he now owns (or co-owns with a bank). He also understands that free-market economics, and the laws of supply and demand, need to run their course. He didn’t publish his complaints without also coming up with what he believes is a short-term solution.

The article describes the industry’s “big three” as sale companies, the veterinary community and stallion owners, and suggests they will be the next group to suffer if the economics for breeders do not improve, and they are forced out of the industry. Fewer breeders will result in lower demand for stallion and veterinary services, and certainly lower profits for Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton.

Whiteley calls for an economic stimulus plan to be borne by the big three: for 2009 only, a 50% reduction in stud fees, a 50% reduction in the cost of services (and medication markup) provided by veterinarians and a 50% reduction in the commission collected by sale companies.

Of course the chances of this actually happening are somewhere between slim and none. Stallion owners will say their fees are based on demand, and veterinarians will cite their rising costs and the investments they’ve made in equipment and education. Sale companies will say they’ve got to making a living, too.

Something, somewhere has to give, or we will see a major exodus from the industry of small businesses. That won’t be good for anyone.

MORE BAD NEWS ON THE RACING FRONT. Turfway Park closed its fall meeting with significant declines in business, both on and off-track, where handle fell 18% and 20%, respectively. There were circumstances to the numbers being so far down (aren’t there always?), but they add yet another chapter to a very troubling sequence of bad economic news for the pari-mutuel side of the Thoroughbred industry.

Keeneland did a very good thing when it purchased Turfway Park and perhaps kept it from being developed for commercial use, though I’m not sure why it is necessary for the cash-rich company to have a partner in Turfway that has no interest in the success of horse racing (a casino company). Many blue-collar Kentucky breeders race their horses at Turfway Park, and the decline of the track since its purchase by Keeneland and partners has been yet another blow to those breeders, who are now shipping their horses to race out of state in increasing numbers to places like West Virginia and Pennsylvania.

Turfway needs an injection of capital and creative or intellectual investment that Keeneland so far is not providing. Investing in Turfway is one way of helping Kentucky’s breeders.

 Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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MINOR FILES CLASS-ACTION SUIT AGAINST SOTHEBY’S

Thursday, October 2nd, 2008
By Ray Paulick

Halsey Minor, the technology entrepreneur and Thoroughbred owner and breeder whose bid to purchase Hialeah Park was recently rebuffed by owner John Brunetti, has filed a class-action lawsuit against the auction company Sotheby’s for transparency and disclosure issues that may parallel those in the Thoroughbred auction business.

Minor, 43, was sued by the New York-based Sotheby’s for $16.8 million last month after he failed to pay for three works of art he purchased through the auction house in May, including $8.6 million for the “Peaceable Kingdom With the Leopard of Serenity,” by 19th Century American folk artist Edward Hicks. On Tuesday morning in federal court in the Northern District of California, Minor filed a class-action claim against Sotheby’s for deceptive practices, unjust enrichment and fraud, plus one individual count of breach of fiduciary duty. (Click here for a copy of the suit.)

The lawsuit stems from Minor’s claim that Sotheby’s was deceptive in not disclosing its own economic interest in the artwork he purchased. Sotheby’s was owed money by art collector Ralph Esmerian, the suit claims, and the debt was secured by the works of art that Minor purchased, with Sotheby’s allegedly retaining the proceeds from the sale in order to reduce the debt. Sotheby’s failed to disclose those details verbally or in its sale catalogue, which the suit claims is a violation of New York statute and common law.

Furthermore, it is claimed, Dara Mitchell, director of the American Paintings Department for Sotheby’s, acted as an advisor to Minor and recommended the purchase of “Peaceable Kingdom” and steered him away from other works. The suit states: “Sotheby’s took on obligations to plaintiff beyond those of an independent auction house or traditional middleman when engaged as art consultant and purchasing agent … Sotheby’s breached its fiduciary duty to plaintiff by intentionally and in bad faith concealing from plaintiff information concerning its economic interest in the auctioned property.”

Minor seeks to represent what the suit projects are thousands of other buyers who may have purchased property at Sotheby’s auctions in which Sotheby’s had an undisclosed economic interest. Proposed class-action members can be identified and located through access to Sotheby’s records, the suit states. It seeks relevant information about previous buyers from Sotheby’s over a six-year period.

The issue of a sale company’s economic interest in property it sells has not come up in legal action in the Thoroughbred auction business to this writer’s knowledge, but it is not uncommon for proceeds from horses sold to to be used to settle debts to an auction company; those details are not disclosed publicly. Further, individuals employed by auction companies in various positions have had undisclosed economic interests in horses sold by the auction companies.

An attorney familiar with art and Thorouthbred auctions commented to the Paulick Report: “Sotheby’s will take the same tactic the horse business does in such matters and say, ‘No one twisted your arm to bid — if you were willing to pay it, it must be a fair price,’ and ignore the ‘informed buyer’ requirement of the fair market value definition.”

The Los Angeles law firm Dreier Stein Kahan Browne Woods George is representing Minor.

The suit demands a jury trial and seeks an injunction requiring preliminary and permanent disclosure in catalogues by Sotheby’s of any economic interests the company has in property it auctions; repayments to Minor and class-action members of unjust enrichments by Sotheby’s from property’s in which it had an economic interest; compensatory and punitive damages for wrongful conduct; and treble damage in accordance with New York law.

Seven years ago, Sotheby’s and counterpart auction house Christie’s paid a $537-million settlement to customers for price-fixing on commissions and Sotheby’s former chairman Alfred Taubman was convicted of price fixing and sentenced to one year in prison.

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MARKET CRISIS HITS THE HORSE BUSINESS

Tuesday, September 23rd, 2008
By Ray Paulick

While Congress begins deliberations on the proposed economic bailout package that could cost taxpayers as much as $1 trillion, Thoroughbred owners and breeders are beginning to feel the effects of the turbulence on Wall Street and other world markets.

The financial markets meltdown came smack dab in the middle of the industry’s most important transactional event: the Keeneland September yearling sale. The sale began with a lowered price ceiling during opening select sessions that saw some resilience in the middle market, but, as many consignors feared, the bottom fell out after the first week. Most yearlings going through the ring in the latter part of the Keeneland sale will reflect economic losses to their owners once stud fees, mare investment  and boarding costs are taken into consideration.

But those losses are minor compared to what’s happened on Wall Street, which traditionally has created much of the wealth that’s found its way into the yearling market. “If anyone is dependent on new money in the horse business, I don’t think this is going to be a very good time for them,” one business analyst told the Paulick Report.

In addition, many yearling-to-juvenile sale pinhookers from Florida depend on bank loans to fund at least a portion of their investment, and those loans or lines of credit from banks are evaporating in the current crisis that actually began last August with the sub-prime mortgage fiasco.

Loans of all kinds will be more difficult to acquire, one banker told the Paulick Report, whether it’s for pin-hooking, stallion and mare acquisitions, or real estate. “A wide range of people need bank financing to buy farms or mares,” he said. “Some people who didn’t start off thinking they wanted to borrow end up taking out loans just like any other business often does. Stallion deals are often supported by banks. No matter what you are borrowing money for, it’s harder now and it will cost more. Everything is going to be more difficult.”

In addition, the banker said, many businesses with “standing operating lines of credit” are going to feel the crunch. “There are acquisitional and seasonal businesses. Some spend money all year and collect over just a couple of weeks. Stallion or mare purchases term out over a number of years.”

The crisis could have a severe effect on the bloodstock markets at Fasig-Tipton and Keeneland in October and November, especially for mares in the $50,000 and under price range. It is expected the top end of the market, which is unlikely to establish any new records for high prices, will maintain some semblence of strength. The deadline to enter mares and weanlings in Keeneland’s massive November breeding stock sale preceded the financial market meltdown. What will be interesting to follow is the number of horses entered for Keeneland’s January sale of horses of all ages. Will breeders look ahead at cutting their losses on marginal mares and newly turned yearlings?

The credit tightening comes as uninsured money market funds have disappeared into treasury bills and other secured investments. Banks that were counting on money market dollars to buy up bonds, mortgages and other loans now require cash on hand to extend credit to their customers. That cash, in many institutions, simply doesn’t exist in abundance.

“Things that have some value in the real world, like real estate loans, have no value in the market,” one analyst said. “Assets that used to be like cash no longer are like cash.”

Many in the horse business are watching how the crisis is affecting the financially troubled Magna Entertainment (MECA)  and its real estate affiliate, MI Developments (MID). Magna Entertainment is the racetrack operating company that is living month to month on bridge loans from MID and other creditors. Magna, controlled by Frank Stronach, owns Santa Anita Park (host of the 2008 and 2009 Breeders’ Cup) and Golden Gate Fields in California, Gulfstream Park in Florida, Pimlico and Laurel Park in Maryland, Lone Star Park in Texas, and Remington Park in Oklahoma, and several smaller tracks. Its stock, battered in recent years and recently the subject of a 1-for-20 reverse split to retain its listing on the exchange, has declined by 25% in the last five trading days, closing Monday at $4.39 per share.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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KEENELAND: CAN THE ELEPHANT LEARN TO DANCE?

Wednesday, September 10th, 2008
By Ray Paulick

Two years ago, leading buyer John Ferguson bought 25 yearlings during the two select sessions of the Keeneland September yearling sale for $56,885,000, an average price of $2,275,400. This year, Sheikh Mohammed’s chief bloodstock adviser signed tickets for 19 yearlings, but only spent $15,655,000, an average price of $823,947.

Sheikh Mohammed’s commitment to buying what he and his advisers think are the best yearlings hasn’t changed in two years. The competition has changed, however, leaving a very short list of people to bid against the sheikh once yearling prices get to a certain point, with $1 million seemingly the magic mark. As a result of the absence of high-pitched battles that drive prices sky-high, gross receipts and average declined during Monday and Tuesday’s select sessions, but the middle-market median price has remained the same. The high-end bubble burst also created a spike in horses bought back by consignors who seem to be clinging to the expectations set two or three years ago at this sale.

Absent from those high-pitched battles was Demi O’B yrne, representing Ireland’s Coolmore operation, which two years ago spent $8,825,000 for eight yearlings and in 2007 bought 11 for $16,850,000. Coolmore did more watching than bidding this year during the select sessions, buying only five yearlings for $2,865,000. But that might be more a product of the perceived quality of the high-end yearlings that were invited into the select session by a Keeneland inspection team that some buyers have quietly said is not doing as good a job as it used to do. We’ll see how active Coolmore is over the next two days during the Wednesday and Thursday sessions that historically have proven to provide good value to buyers and a high percentage of stakes winners that rivals the select sessions.

There were 300 horses sold Monday and Tuesday for $113,357,000, an average price of $377,857 and median of $300,000. In 2007, there were 337 yearlings sold for $145,377,000, an average of $431,386 and the same $300,000 median. Thus, the gross dropped by 22% in one year, and the average declined by 12.4%. There were 132 horses through the ring that failed to sell, a buy-back rate of 30.6%, an all-time high for the Keeneland September select sessions.

The two-year drop is even worse. In 2006, the select sessions produced $182,860,000 in revenue for Thoroughbred breeders on the sale of 324 horses, an average of $564,383, the highest-ever in September. That year’s median was also $300,000. So the two-year drop in revenue is 38% and the average has fallen 33%.

This year’s select sale gross is the lowest since the $100,576,000 achieved in 2002 and the second-worst since 1999. That’s especially bad news for breeders whose product is produced for the high-end buyer in the Thoroughbred market. But it’s also bad news for Keeneland, a sale company that has had a dominant market share position on its chief rival, Fasig-Tipton, which was purchased earlier this year by an associate of Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed.

The purchase of Fasig-Tipton, combined with a commitment by its new owner to recapitalize the company and turn loose its newly crafted management team will pose a serious challenge to Keeneland moving forward, and begs the question: Can anyone teach the elephant to dance?

Tuesday’s sessions yielded more $1-million yearlings than Monday’s (11 to 5, as reported by the sale company), but the total is far below the 30 sold last year. The session totals were: 146 sold for $57,310,000, an average of $392,534 and median of $300,000. The Tuesday session in 2007 sold 166 for $77,982,000, an average of $469,771.

Over the first two sessions, Ferguson, representing Sheikh Mohammed, and Rick Nichols, buying in the name of Sheikh Hamdan’s Shadwell Estate Co. Ltd., combined to spend more money in 2008 than they did in 2007: $25,375,000 vs. $22,380,000. Their combined purchases accounted for 22.4% of the select session gross receipts.

The 2008 declines would have been far worse were it not for a new operation, Legends Racing, a partnership formed by Gaines-Gentry Thoroughbreds, that was the third leading buyer behind Ferguson and Shadwell with 10 yearlings bought for $6,655,000. Another significant domestic buyer was Peter Wittmann’s Maverick Racing, which spent $3,100,000 on five yearlings to rank fourth among select session buyers.

The top-price of the select sessions was the $3.1 million Storm Cat filly sold Monday and purchased by Ferguson for Sheikh Mohammed.

Though Storm Cat produced the top price, A.P. Indy was the leading sire by average, with 21 sold for an average of $647,142. Here is Keeneland’s list of leading sires.

Taylor Made Sales Agency was the leading consignor by gross revenue, with 74 yearlings bringing $25,690,000, followed by Lane’s End, which sold 24 for $14,520,000. Here is Keeneland’s list of leading consignors by gross and by average.

One horse Lane’s End didn’t sell was a colt by Storm Cat out of the multiple Grade 1 winner Tranquility Lake, who produced Grade 1-winning grass star After Market for breeders Marty and Pam Wygod. The colt was part of the Lane’s End consignment and was widely believed to be a potential sale topper when it was announced he had been withdrawn about an hour before he was scheduled to be sold on Tuesday.

As the action was winding down late Tuesday afternoon, Marty Wygod and Russell Drake, farm manager for the Wygods, were puffing on what looked like victory cigars behind the Keeneland sale pavilion. After seeing the results of the first two days, Wygod said he was happy with the decision to keep the Storm Cat colt and race him rather than offer him in a shaky market, saying: “There’s just not enough money out there right now for this kind of horse.”

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DAY TWO: RAY PAULICK FROM THE KEENELAND SALE PAVILION

Tuesday, September 9th, 2008

By Ray Paulick

Dubai’s Sheikh Mohammed struck again Tuesday morning to purchase the first seven-figure yearling of the Keeneland September sale’s second session when he stood in the back-ring area with bloodstock adviser John Ferguson and bought an A.P. Indy filly out of the Grade 1 winning Smart Strike mare Shadow Cast for $1 million. It was the third purchase of the morning for the ruler of Dubai, who paced all buyers in Monday’s opening session with $8,835,000 in expenditures. He has now spent nearly $11 million, and there are many top lots left to sell. The A.P. Indy filly was consigned by Lane’s End, agent

noon update…One of the rituals of any major Thoroughbred sale at Keeneland or Fasig-Tipton is the immediate crush of the local newspaper reporters and trade press upon any buyer of a top-priced horse (usually defined at Keeneland as $1-million-plus). With purchases by Ferguson, there is a snake of reporters out of the press box, around the corner and down a hallway into the back ring, where they cross a horse walkway and form a circle of cameras, notebooks and tape recorders.

The interviews usually start with something like this: “What did you like about this (colt or filly)?” To which Ferguson attempts to provide an answer slightly different than the one he gave yesterday or earlier in the session. “(He or she) was a lovely individual from a good family and Sheikh Mohammed was really struck by (him or her) at the barn earlier today.”

John Magnier’s Coolmore camp, rivals of Sheikh Mohammed on the racetrack, breeding shed and auction ring, are often challenged with the same questions from reporters, usually relying on Irish veterinarian Demi O’Byrne to provide and answer. In a moment of candor a few years ago when asked about what he liked about a specific horse that he had just purchased – one of many high-priced horse he bought at that particular sale — O’Byrne pulled the glasses off his nose, looked up from his catalogue and said, “What the #@!#  do you want me to say? I’ve run out of comments?”

I couldn’t blame him. The stress on buyers  and agents can be enormous. They look at hundreds of horses, and aren’t paid to come up with great descriptive terms for them.

12:05…TDN reports that Hip 329, a Storm Cat colt out of multiple Grade 1 winner Tranquility Lake, by Rahy, and one of the leading prospects to top the sale, has been withdrawn by Marty Wygod, who raced the mare and one of her foals, Grade 1 winner After Market (also by Storm Cat). After Market stands at Lane’s End, which also had the Storm Cat yearling in its Keeneland consignment.

12:30…There’s the buzz that’s been lacking for most of the sale. In just a few minutes, three horses reach seven figures, beginning with Hip 317, an El Prado colt out of the Clever Trick mare Swift and Classy, that Tom Evans’ Trackside Farm, agent for Liberation Farm and partners, sold for $1 million to Legends Racing, Monday’s leading domestic buyer. The next horse through the ring, an A.P. Indy colt out of Taegu, by Halo, brings $1.5 million from Sheikh Hamdan’s Shadwell Farm chief Rick Nichols, A few minutes after that, Hip 323 also reached $1 million. That colt, by Mr. Greeley out of stakes winner and stakes producer Tempest Dancer, by Storm Cat, is sold by Gainesway, agent, and is also picked up by Legends Racing, whose bidding is being done by Olin Gentry of Gaines-Gentry Thoroughbreds, which put the partnership together. Legends Racing is no named because it is being advised by three Throughbred training "legends," Hall of Famers D. Wayne Lukas, Nick Zito and future Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. The Legends horses will be divided among those three trainers.

3:00 update…A little lunch, a little nap, and I’m back. Ready for some numbers?

Today’s session is going much better from the standpoint of horses getting sold. The RNA or buyback rate is a more palatable 25% through the first 121 horses through the ring, and there have been at least eight million-dollar yearlings, including four from the Legends Racing Partnership, which ranks as the day’s leading buyer with about 90 more to be offered after spending $4,350,000.

Legends purchased four so far: Hip 317 (colt by El Prado) for $1,000,000; Hip 323 (colt by Mr. Greeley) for $1,000,000; Hip 331 (colt by Storm Cat) for $1.2 million; and Hip 355 (colt by Unbridled’s Song) for $1.15 million. The partnership has made no secret that it hopes to compete in the Triple Crown races using Lukas, Zito and Baffert as trainers.

First-day leading buyer Ferguson, spending Sheikh Mohammed’s money, signed five tickets for $3,495,000, and Darley Stud was listed as buyer of two more for $600,000, for a grand total of $4,095,000 with 90 left o sell. Ferguson’s purchases were Hip 272 (Elusive Quality colt) for $350,000; Hip 274 (Kingmambo colt) for $775,000; Hip 288 (A.P. Indy filly) for $1,000,000; Hip 345 (Kingmambo colt) for $1,000,000; and Hip 384 (Elusive Quality colt) for $370,000. The two Darley purchases were Hip 332 (Mr. Greeley filly) for $400,000; and Hip 373 (Street Cry filly) for $200,000.

Sheikh Hamdan’s Shadwell Estate Co. Ltd. spent $2,000,000 on three yearlings (with 90 hips left to go), and Demi O’Byrne of Coolmore bought three for $1,490,000. The Shadwell purchases included the day’s highest price (so far), Hipe 318 (A.P. Indy colt) for $1.5 million; Hipe 387 (Awesome Again filly) for $200,000; and Hip 388 (Dynaformer filly) for $300,000.

O’Byrne’s buys were Hipe 279 (Arch filly) for $500,000; Hip 320 (Giant’s Causeway filly) for $400,000; and Hip 352 (Giant’s Causeway colt) for $590,000.

Two other $1,000,000-plus yearlings sold went to Troy Steve Bloodstock (Hip 360, Giant’s Causeway filly) for $1,250,000; and Charlotte Weber’s Live Oak Plantation (Hip 340, Giant’s Causeway filly) for $1,150,000. I’m not very familiar with England-based Troy Steve Bloodstock, but here is Web site.

3:35 update…Maybe I spoke too soon about the reduced buyback rate. From Hip 390 to 409, there were nine yearlings not sold from 19 through the ring, which moved the RNA needle upwards to 27.9%, very close to Monday’s final percentage of 29.0%. Shadwell bought another one, Hip 395 (Distorted Humor colt), for $850,000, bringing its total to 16 purchases in two days.

Final numbers to be posted in a separate story.

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KEENELAND DAY ONE: DUBAI ACCOUNTS FOR 27%

Monday, September 8th, 2008
All the economic indicators were down at Monday’s opening session of Keeneland’s bellwether September yearling sale — to no one’s surprise. The world economy is slumping, financial markets are turbulent, the American racing industry is going through hard times and even the U.S. dollar’s recent strengthening was a case of bad timing for breeders hoping that foreign money might make up for a shortfall of American investment. Also to no one’s surprise, oil money from Dubai dominated the early action, accounting for 27% of the gross receipts. 

(Note: An early version of this post incorrectly reported Dubai interests were responsible for 37% of the day’s gross receipts.)

When the final horse went through the ring, Keeneland reported sales revenue of  $56,047,000, a 16.8% decline from the $67,395,000 sold during last year’s opening session. Average price of $363,942 was a 7.7% decline from the $394.123 from last year, with median holding steady at $300,000. There were fewer horses sold this year, 154 to 171 in 2007, largely because of a spike in the percentage that failed to exceed their reserve price. There were 63 yearlings not sold from the 217 offered for an RNA rate of 29.0%. Last year’s buyback percentage was 24%.

(Keeneland did not report the number or percentage of RNAs in results sheets handed out after Monday’s session.)

One of those RNAs, an A.P. Indy colt out of Horse of the Year Azeri, was the talk of the sale when he was bought back by Michael Paulson for $7.7 million, which set a new record price for a buy-back. The previous record of $7.5 million was established in 1985 at the now-defunct Keeneland July selected yearling sale that also resulted in a $13.1 million world record price for a yearling sold. The 1985 buyback was for a Northern Dancer colt, Ajdal, who became England’s champion sprinter.

Paulson told Bloodhorse he is looking for partners with whom to race the colt.

The A.P. Indy-Azeri colt was consigned by Hill ‘n’ Dale Sales Agency, agent, which also was listed as the seller and buyer of a $1.2 million Storm Cat filly out of Starrer. That yearling was listed as a sale but was a buy-back by breeder George Krikorian, according to an adviser to Krikorian. That filly was one of five Keeneland listed at prices of $1 million or higher, a decline from the 11 seven-figure yearlings sold on day one last September.

The Darley and Shadwell operations of Dubai’s Sheikh Mohammed and Sheikh Hamdan, respectively, bought 21 yearlings for $15,045,000, which represents 27% of the first day’s gross receipts. John Ferguson, Sheikh Mohammed’s chief bloodstock adviser, signed the tickets on nine yearlings for $8,825,000 (another bought for $160,000 was listed in the name of Darley Stud), with Shadwell purchasing 12 for $6,220,000.

Among those purchased by Ferguson was an A.P. Indy filly out of Chimichurri that he went to $3.1 million to buy from Gainesway, agent for Jess Jackson’s Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings. The filly was the highest price among yearlings sold on Monday.

Legends Racing, a new partnership organized this year by Gaines-Gentry Thoroughbreds, was the leading domestic buyer with five purchases totaling $2,005,000. Two American buyers went to seven figures for yearlings: Jon Kelly bought an Empire Maker filly out of Aurora for $1.7 million and Briggs and Cromartie Bloodstock Inc, as agent, bought a Giant’s Causeway colt out of Voodoo Dancer for $1 million.

Demi O’Byrne bought two yearlings for $1,375,000 on behalf of John Magnier’s Coolmore operation.

Taylor Made Sales Agency sold 40 yearlings for $13,065,000 to be the day’s leading consignor by gross, with Eaton Sales next with 19 sold for $7,810,000 and Gainesway third with seven sold for $5,090,000.

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KEENELAND: BLOGGING MONDAY’S FIRST SESSION

Monday, September 8th, 2008

By Ray Paulick

The Paulick Report will be live blogging and/or providing frequent updates from Monday’s first session of the Keeneland September Yearling Sale from Lexington, Ky. The sale is scheduled to kick off at 10 a.m. EDT, but as most auction viewers know sessions do not begin on time.

First, a bit of news from John Ferguson, chief bloodstock adviser to Sheikh Mohammed, who is expected to again pace all buyers in expenditures. Ferguson told the Paulick Report that Dubai’s ruler is "here," meaning the United States, though he wasn’t sure when he was expected to arrive in Lexington or on the sale grounds.

Ferguson also said the purchase of Keeneland’s rival sale company, Fasig-Tipton, by an associate of Sheikh Mohammed would have "absolutely" no bearing on his spending decisions at Keeneland. He said he is excited about what Fasig-Tipton will be doing to promote horse racing internationally. "We want a lot of speed boats out there promoting the sport" — as opposed to cruise ships, said Ferguson, who alluded to the numerous slow-moving organizations that can’t seem to get things done. Looking ahead to future sales at Fasg-Tipton, that should be exciting news for breeders. But first, there is this little business of getting some horses sold at Keeneland.

11:30 update… First chuckle of the day when the initial result sheets come out with Morning Wood Farm listed as the buyer of Hip 5, a Ghostzapper filly consigned by Four Star Sales, agent, that brought $185,000. That’s the same "business entity" that purchased Silverbulletday for Mike Pegram for $155,000 at the 1998 Fasig-Tipton July Kentucky yearling sale. Bob Baffert picked out and trained Silverbulletday.

11:;45 update…John Ferguson makes his first purchase of the Keeneland sale, Hip 38, a Storm Cat colt out of Runway Model, by Petionville, sold by Taylor Made Sales Agency for $700,000. Among Runway Model’s racing wins was the Grade 2  Darley Alcibiades at Keeneland. This colt is her first foal.

Looks like the first seven-figure yearling is in the ring, Hip 56, an Unbridled’s Song filly. Hammer price is $1.7 million for the Taylor Made consigned filly on behalf of Aaron and Marie Jones. She is half to champion Speightstown.

 Judging by the size of the crowd in the back ring area, Sheikh Mohammed has arrived. Sure enough, he has, and he’s bought the half sister to Speightstown. Sheikh Mohammed assumed his customary bidding spot along the wall with his advisors nearby. The Coolmore outfit, including Demi O’Byrne, is situated less than 25 feet behind the sheikh.

2:20 update…Alaska had its chance for a "Bridge to Nowhere," and Keeneland looks like it just produced a $7.7-million "Bid to Nowhere." Hip 127, a chestnut colt by A.P. Indy out of Horse of the Year Azeri (by Jade Hunter) has a prolonged bidding battle that finally ends up with a $7.7 million hammer price. The auctioneer says the final bid came from bidspotter Pete’s area right in the front of the press box, but no live bidder can be found by the press horde that snakes down the aisle in search of a buyer. Turns out the buyer’s initials are "R.N.A.," or reserve not attained. Sheikh Mohammed’s camp was bidding on the horse but dropped out (see 3:05 update). There are instant rumors that the colt was purchased privately beforehand, but that’s the nature of the business. Rumors abound, and there is seldom any substantiation. The colt is consigned by Hill ‘n’ Dale Sales Agency, agent.

A $7.7-million buyback certainly figures to be a record, but we’ll let the trade reporters answer that question officially. 

2:45 update…(Bloodhorse reports it is indeed a record, besting by $200,000 the previous high RNA established in 1985 at the now-defunct Keeneland July yearling sale for Ajdal, who went on to become a champion sprinter in England.)

3:05 update…Turns out Sheikh Mohammed and John Ferguson were not bidding on the $7.7 million buy-back, Ferguson tells the Paulick Report. Demi O’Byrne of Coolmore also said he wasn’t involved. So the question is, was any live money on the A.P. Indy colt? Michael Paulson was in attendance, but one back-ring source said he left the area immediately after the colt went through the ring.

A short time later, Gainesway, agent for Jess Jackson’s Stonestreet, sells an A.P. Indy filly out of graded stakes winner Chimichurri for $3.1 million, with Ferguson signing the ticket for Sheikh Mohammed.

5:35 update….The first session is about to wrap up and it will be interesting to see the final numbers from the day. Anecdotally, it seemed to lack any buzz, and several consignors described the action as "spotty" or "uneven."  Going into the day, several leading buyers shared the observation that the 2008 yearling crop wasn’t vintage, at least at the top of the market. Combine that with the worldwide economic slump and the negative publicity that has surrounded horse racing in the United States this year, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a fairly steep decline in the average.

"This is an emotional business," one consignor said. "You can’t really put a tangible value on an unraced yearling, so we are depending on emotions to drive prices. The emotions surrounding the sport right now are not very good."

One final note. John Sikura, whose Hill ‘n’ Dale Sales Agency consigned the A.P. Indy-Azeri colt Michael Paulson bought back for $7.7 million, spoke briefly about the deal. It seemed clear he wasn’t thrilled being the consignor of a record-priced buyback and insisted there was live money on the colt up the end. "I still don’t know who it was," he said. "We came very close to having the horse sold." Bloodhorse got ahold of Michael Paulson, who said he wants to find a partner and keep a piece of the horse.

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