In reaction to a piece we ran yesterday on the Paulick Report from Brent Schrotenboer in the San Diego Union-Tribune, Bill Finley’s ESPN.com article points out the inaccuracies and misperceptions promoted by the article.
Finley spends a great deal of time highlighting the dirt surface at Los Alamitos and making the case that this predominantly Quarter Horse track is the likely culprit for the inflated numbers of racing fatalities.
"The CHRB may have a lot to worry about and look at, but synthetic surfaces are not one of its primary problems," said Finley. "At least when it comes to safety, they’re getting the job done — no matter what you may have read."
UPDATE: The following email was sent to us by San Diego Union-Tribune writer Brent Schrotenboer to clear up the controversy over his article’s headline yesterday.
Brad,
Just FYI — Please keep in mind that writers don’t write the headlines to their stories. I didn’t write the headline that Bill Finley based his column on.
While that headline is not false, it wasn’t totally fair either, because the issue is much more nuanced, as the story reflects.
The print version had a different headline: "Latest fatality statistics fuel more debate."
The headline on the online story since has been changed to match this.
By Ray Paulick Jerry Moss has been living a dream since moving to California from his native New York in 1960. In 1962, with trumpeter and band leader Herb Albert, he formed A&M Records and over the next quarter century produced music for a diverse group of recording artists ranging from The Carpenters, Joan Baez, Phils Ochs, and Cheech & Chong to Joe Cocker, Janet Jackson, Oingo Boingo, The Tubes and The Police—and that’s only a very small list. He and Alpert were inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 2006. His life as a Thoroughbred owner has been pretty groovy, too, especially in recent years. Moss and his wife Ann won the Kentucky Derby with Giacomo in 2005, and Zenyatta has carried them to consecutive Eclipse Awards as champion older mare during an unbeaten career that hit a high note at Santa Anita last November when she became the first distaffer to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. She is currently preparing for an April 9 showdown against Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra in the $5-million Apple Blossom Invitational at Oaklawn Park. Moss also serves on the California Horse Racing Board, having been appointed by California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2004. He was the only member of that panel not to vote in favor of the synthetic track mandate when it was proposed in 2006. Moss abstained, believing more research and study was needed before such a significant change was enacted. He, along with Zenyatta’s trainer, John Shirreffs, have become critics of the synthetic surfaces. Moss spoke with the Paulick Report about the synthetic track controversy and a variety of other subjects. Let’s go back to 2006 when the push was made for synthetic tracks. What was your position? I frankly wasn’t prepared for the speed at which this was enacted. I thought we needed more data and felt we shouldn’t be rushing off to do this, causing tracks to spend $40 million based on one season at Turfway Park. Yet if you were in the room that day–and the truth is every vendor, Polytrack, Cushion Track, Tapeta, they all had people show up and do demonstrations—that meeting was hell bent on doing this. There were only five commissioners present, and the overall support from TOC and CTT (Thoroughbred Owners of California and California Thoroughbred Trainers), and particularly from two trainers, Richard Mandella and Howard Zucker, was rampant. The room was rocking to do this. First I made a statement that we should all study it enough to pick one surface and be consistent and no one took that seriously. We could have managed it better with maintenance. We took this vote, and I was hoping someone would stand up and say, ‘You can’t do this.’ I said, ‘I abstain, I think we need more time.’ We had been fortunate enough to win the Kentucky Derby the previous year with Giacomo, and I felt these tracks would make it so much more difficult for the owner of a California horse to achieve the dream, to win the Derby. Sometimes you can train on Polytrack and do well, but it’s hard to race on it and transfer the same form to dirt. The nature of the tracks changes every day. We run on three different synthetic tracks in Southern California and a fourth, quite different track, is at Golden Gate (near San Francisco), and every one of them changes every day. It’s been very hard for trainers to build up the strength of horses on these tracks. With John Sadler now president of CTT, an open poll of trainers came up with a 70% vote to reinstall dirt. I hope we live up to that. I think it’s a big, divisive thing that’s happened. We have enough divisiveness. If Santa Anita takes the lead and installs a dirt track, it would become the center of racing again in the U.S. People will still complain about the track. Everybody complains about the condition of the track, every trainer. At least with a dirt track you’ve got people with years of experience in maintaining it. With this stuff, nobody knows anything. We were told we wouldn’t need water and that couldn’t be further from the truth. We were told there would be lower maintenance costs. Our horse Tiago had a huge piece of rubber in his nose. It took us weeks and months to get this gook out of his mouth. The fibers melted from the heat. What are some of the other challenges the industry faces in California? Getting our product across to the consumer. I’m pleased that the CHRB is really concentrating on the mini-satellites. We’ve had a bill put forth in the state legislature that seemed to allow a greater number of them to commence operations, but there’s a restriction they had to be 20 miles away from an existing track or wagering site. In all this time, only one mini-satellite got set up—at a card club in Gardena, and they’re doing really well. It showed people still have an appetite for our game. A friend of mine owns movie theaters and wants to incorporate bet facilities in movie theaters. I think it’s a great idea, yet nobody seems to be jumping up and down about it. The thing that really gets me down about our game is we have so many wise men who are so negative. I feel that’s what’s plaguing our industry. Not enough guys who want to put their money up and take a shot. The dream keeps getting dimmer. There are some new thoughts blossoming. Our new CHRB chairman (Keith Brackpool) has some good ideas, some practical ideas. He’s thinking positively. What needs to happen to reverse the trend? Leadership. Are there national solutions to racing’s challenges? I firmly believe you need a national presence. We need to figure a way to do this. We’ve got these little fiefdoms, powerful in their regions. There’s no national medication policy; it’s like the Cincinnati Reds playing on different drugs than the New York Mets. It’s just not right. Different rules apply to different places. There’s got to be some national policy. It’s been tried. Business has to operate with one negotiator. It’s also gotten to be too hard for the public to get to see these races, like the Derby preps last weekend. These were some big races, but they weren’t on ESPN and were hardly reported in the papers. The Kentucky Derby still gets a good (television) rating, and the Breeders’ Cup is a big event. People do tune in on big days. But look at something like NASCAR. They are all over the place. Your expertise is in entertainment, and you’ve seen a lot of changes in the music business in terms of distribution and technology. What has the music industry done differently in the face of those changes, as opposed to how the racing industry has reacted? The internet has taken its toll on the sale of records. A large segment of the population started exchanging files and getting music for free. But artists are still making music and the emphasis for making money for these artists is through new sources—personal appearances. Artists in this for the long haul have to keep performing, attach themselves to an audience, people who show up for them, and buy their products. It is possible to be a success in the music industry. Television is more important than before. If you’re talented you’ve got to get your message to the people—and promote it. What are the chances state government can help in California? California breeding has gone way down. California homebreds used to make up a much bigger percentage of the races. State government has done very little in the time I’ve been on the CHRB. It’s very disappointing what the legislature or governor have done for the industry–so far it’s been dismal. But the state is in trouble. I understand where Arnold (Gov. Schwarzenegger) is having to reduce money for breast cancer diagnosis. How can he do something for a rich man’s game like horse racing while reducing the number of teachers in our schools. Clearly, we need some help. But positive thinking and a unified approach to the legislature and governor would certainly benefit. We’ve got to think more positively. People have to let go of some things. We have to move on. We gave up the stage coach a long time–and we moved on. You mentioned how musicians are now emphasizing personal appearances more today. Can racing ever recapture some of the on-track business it lost to simulcasting and advance-depoisit wagering? My belief is that people’s habits have changed. I don’t know if people have that much leisure time these days. In the 1980s when on-track business was strong, you still had the same number of sports–basketball, baseball, NFL, lots of different stuff. Today everybody has to work harder, our economy is still in trouble. To come out and hang out for the whole afternoon is hard for people, their attention spans have changed. That’s why you’ve got to make TV a little easier for them. Are we better off with ADW, even though it’s had a negative effect on on-track business? Yes I’d have to say so. At least it’s brought in the opportunity of a new generation that understands the internet effectively enough to place a wager. I bet on TVG now and then. I think it’s a handy tool. And I’m happy that BetFair owns TVG. Gaming professionals understand racing. They understand gaming. I think they do a pretty good job on TVG—they try to be entertaining. It would have been very easy to send Zenyatta off to Kentucky to be bred after her second Eclipse Award. What factors went into your decision to keep her in training? The initial decision to retire her was purely mine. After the Breeders’ Cup Classic I said what else can I ask her to do? I didn’t talk to my wife, to anybody on the team, I just said I think we’ve got to retire her. We went to visit her at the barn and this was a horse that obviously was liking her job. She’s been there four years now, and we were, what, going to send her to Kentucky? Before the Eclipse Awards, my wife and I said if John thinks she can go another year and she’s happy, let’s do it. She loves the show, she loves the people. The Classic didn’t take that much out of her. John and Dottie (racing manager Dottie Ingordo, Shirreffs’ wife) said, ‘Yeah, she can be pretty good next year.’ The decision to retire her was an emotional one on my part and the decision to keep her in training was more of a reasonable one. She’s a star. How can racing seize the opportunity to promote the Apple Blossom and any other races involving Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra? I believe Mr. (Charles) Cella is a great showman. He’s almost in a class by himself. Back in 1927, someone said, ‘Mr. O’Brien the most amazing thing has happened; a man has flown across the Atlantic Ocean all by himself.’ O’Brien says, ‘That’s fantastic, but let me know when a committee does it. That would be amazing.’ The point is an individual can accomplish anything. Charlie was able to pull this off and you’ve got to give him credit for it. Whatever devise he wants to promote this race is absolutely fine, and I believe he’ll come out of it making money.
In an article from The San Diego Union-Tribune, recently released data shows that the last two years of racing have produced the most fatalities of any two-year period in California racing history.
However, equine medical director Rick Arthur contends this is due to the increased number of starts at Golden Gate after the closing of Bay Meadows and contends the reduction in deaths per 1,000 races is proof things are better than they were before.
An editorial in today’s San Diego Union-Tribune lauds Del Mar’s dedication to its synthetic track despite Santa Anita’s likely return to dirt. They touted studies from California’s equine medical director and the Equibase Company that show the benefits of synthetic track in regards to horse fatalities.
By Ray Paulick Southern California-based trainer Bob Hess crystallized the often toxic debate over synthetic tracks as well as anyone I’ve talked with on the subject: “My horses are happy on it, and they’re lasting a lot longer,” said Hess, a 44-year-old, second generation horseman and a graduate of Stanford University. “My clients are getting more bang for their buck. But without gamblers, we are nothing: there are no purses and no owners. The reality is the gamblers hate this shit. They have no confidence in it. From what they tell me, it’s inconsistent and changes from track to track. Most gamblers tend to play speed, and if you play speed out here, you’re screwed.”
Maybe that’s why Sheikh Mohammed has installed a Tapeta Footings synthetic surface at the lavish Meydan racecourse that is due to open in Dubai later this month and will host the Dubai World Cup program in March. He apparently believes, after extensive testing, that it’s safer for his and other people’s horses. And, since gambling isn’t permitted in Dubai, the sheikh won’t be bombarded with emails and phone calls from unhappy horseplayers who may have had to reinvent how they handicap a race.
SYNTHETIC TEST TUBE
That certainly hasn’t been the case in California, which, for better or worse, has been the test tube for synthetic racetracks, even though the surfaces also are installed at Keeneland and Turfway Park in Kentucky, Woodbine in Canada, Arlington Park in Illinois, and Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania.
Ron Charles, the Santa Anita Park president who on Monday strongly hinted that the beleaguered synthetic track will be ripped out and replaced with conventional dirt at the end of the current meeting, called synthetics one of the most polarizing issues he’s ever seen in racing. The tracks have created a great divide among trainers, owners, track executives and regulators, and critics in the press and in online forums and blogs have made synthetics their perpetual punching bag and a principal reason for the industry’s troubles.
Santa Anita, along with Hollywood Park, Del Mar and Golden Gate Fields, was required by a California Horse Racing Board mandate to install synthetic surfaces by Jan. 1, 2008. However, recently elected CHRB chairman Keith Brackpool was quoted in published reports as saying the CHRB would no longer hold any track to the synthetic mandate, one that was championed by former board chairman Richard Shapiro in reaction to reports of an unacceptably high rate of injuries and fatalities occurring on dirt.
One thing the CHRB didn’t do was require all California tracks to install the same surface, a move supported at the time by Jerry Moss, a member of the CHRB and co-owner with wife Ann of unbeaten champion mare Zenyatta. John Shirreffs, Zenyatta’s trainer, is one of the most vocal critics of the synthetic tracks.
When the mandate was approved by Shapiro and the other CHRB members (Jerry Moss abstained in the voting; in the original version of this article, the Paulick Report incorrectly stated that Moss voted in support of the mandate), Hollywood Park and Santa Anita opted to install Cushion Track, manufactured by an Australian company. Del Mar went with Polytrack, a company owned in part by the Keeneland Association, and Golden Gate Fields opted for Tapeta Footings, a surface created by synthetic track pioneer and former trainer Michael Dickinson.
Santa Anita has experienced the most problems—not with safety of the horses—but with drainage. The all-weather aspects of the surfaces were hampered by drainage problems almost immediately during the winter of 2007-08, during the winter of 2009, again last fall, and most recently this week when the track was closed to training and racing on Monday after heavy rains hit California. (Golden Gate Fields, meanwhile, with its Tapeta surface, didn’t miss a beat during the recent storms that hit both Northern and Southern California.) The surface was altered in 2009 with polymers from another Australian surface known as Pro-Ride. It since has played host to two Breeders’ Cups in 2008 and 2009 without incident.
Sources said Ron Charles had his hands tied when he went shopping for synthetic surfaces for Santa Anita. Track owner Frank Stronach is said to have told him not to go with Polytrack because it was owned by the “old boy’s club” at Keeneland. Others confided to the Paulick Report that corners were cut in the installation process, especially in the selection of the sand that was used in the all-weather surface.
Santa Anita isn’t the only track that’s had problems. Hollywood Park and Del Mar’s synthetic tracks have been criticized by horsemen and jockeys, but adjustments in maintenance alleviated some of the concerns. Some trainers who were early critics took a c’est la vie approach, figuring that criticizing the synthetic surfaces was akin to complaining about the weather: that it wasn’t going to change anything.
However, late last year, the California Thoroughbred Trainers board of directors came under fire from a rival group of trainers who formed an organization called California Horsemen for Change, which wanted, among other things, to have the synthetic tracks replaced with dirt. CTT, under president Jim Cassidy, has been supportive of synthetics. The California Horsemen for Change threatened to petition to become the representative organization for trainers, a move that convinced the current CTT board to resign en masse, paving the way for new elections (which have just been completed). According to a source, the newly formed CTT board will be dominated by a slate of candidates backed by California Horsemen for Change, though the CTT has not yet made the election results public.
Supporters of the surfaces say many of the critics have short memories, reminding them that their protests over track conditions in part led to the CHRB’s mandate for synthetics. A return to exactly the same thing in place before synthetics is not going to make anyone happy. There needs to be serious work on a track’s base, cushion and drainage, no matter what type of material lays on top.
STATISTICS SUGGEST SYNTHETICS ARE SAFER The criticism of the synthetic tracks by horsemen flies in the face of statistics showing they are safer than the dirt surfaces that preceded them, at least as far as fatalities are concerned. What hasn’t been proven or disproven in statistical research is the common belief by many trainers that horses are sustaining more hind end or soft-tissue injuries on synthetics than they were on dirt.
In addition, a growing number of jockeys are saying that synthetic surfaces are more dangerous than dirt if they are involved in spills. Two jockeys, Rene Douglas and Michael Straight, suffered severe spinal injuries on Arlington’s Polytrack this summer, and Julia Brimo suffered a spinal injury in a spill at Keeneland in this fall.
According to statistics compiled by the CHRB’s equine medical director, Dr. Rick Arthur, the number of equine fatalities per 1,000 starts has declined significantly at every track in California. Santa Anita Park, for example, had 2.81 fatalities per 1,000 starts in the four years prior to the synthetic installation; that number has fallen to 1.64 per 1,000 since the conversion. (Hollywood Park has gone from 2.87 to 1.57/1,000; Del Mar from 2.47 to 1.65/1,000; Golden Gate Fields from 3.90 to 1.84/1,000). Click here to see the complete set of statistics.
One Southern California trainer who supports the synthetic tracks said it’s his understanding Santa Anita has had 30,000 recorded workouts without an ambulance run. He said in the days of a sealed dirt track and the aftermath of sealing the track, it was difficult to even plan workouts because there were so many breakdowns during morning training hours.
Del Mar, which has studied results over its Polytrack surface extensively, has statistics showing an overall reduction in the number of post-race injuries, in addition to a reduction in fatalities. Click here to see Del Mar’s statistical report.
“We think we have achieved a measurable increase in safety,” said Craig Fravel, Del Mar’s executive vice president. “Has it done everything we had hoped it would do from the beginning? It probably has not lived up to that. Would we do it again? Yes. I don’t think we’ve done as good a job as we should have done in making the case for the tracks in this tradition-bound industry. But we are confident we did the right thing.”
Many horseplayers insist they are betting less on California tracks since the synthetics were installed. Craig Dado, Del Mar’s director of marketing, isn’t convinced. “There’s nothing we can point to that says the fans are betting less,” said Dado.
In fact, when synthetics were installed, they almost resulted in increased handle at some tracks, due to larger field size. But then came an economic crisis and a recession that saw wagering volume falling at most tracks around the country and fewer owners to fill races with horses.
“There has been criticism that the synthetic tracks are unpredictable,” said Fravel. “But winning favorites at Del Mar have been at 30-31%. There are a lot of differences: they are not as speed favoring as the old California tracks and some people have had to throw out their traditional handicapping methods. It creates issues for people. If they were winning money before and they aren’t now, I consider their angst. There are a lot of people who don’t like these tracks because they are different. But empirical analysis, an intelligent, thoughtful approach, has been lacking. I know handicappers who love the synthetics, partly because they are contrarians. Gamblers all over the world have been betting on that kind of racing for many years and doing so happily. Asking for people to do something different isn’t easy.”
Back to Hess’s belief, that synthetics are better for the horses but not as good for the handicappers, Fravel stood his ground. “We are going to make that choice in favor of what’s best for the horses,” he insisted. “At the same time, it’s incumbent on us to put out better information to make the handicapping issues less significant. I don’t think these are mutually exclusive. “
By Ray Paulick On an afternoon when heavy rains forced Santa Anita Park management to cancel a special holiday program, track president Ron Charles said the all-weather surface currently in place will be removed at the end of the 2009-’10 and strongly hinted the Arcadia, Calif., racetrack would return to dirt for its main track surface.
Santa Anita and the other major California tracks were required by the California Horse Racing Board to install synthetic surfaces by Jan. 1, 2008, but horseplayers and many trainers have been critical of the various synthetic tracks ever since. Charles, during an interview on Steve Byk’s "At the Races" radio show Monday afternoon, said the synthetic tracks did not deliver as promised by their manufacturers. Santa Anita Park joined Hollywood Park in installing Cushion Track prior to the 2008 deadline and experienced almost immediate problems with the track’s ability to drain and lost several days of racing after rains hit Southern California. Santa Anita replaced the Cushion Track with material from another manufacturer, Pro-Ride, and sued the owners of Cushion Track. When that new surface was installed in time for the 2008 Breeders’ Cup, Charles indicated it would be a short-term solution. Santa Anita began experiencing further drainage problems again last fall.
Del Mar has gone with Polytrack, which is part owned by Keeneland and in place at Keeneland, Turfway Park, Arlington Park and Woodbine.The Bay Area’s Golden Gate Fields, like Santa Anita owned by bankrupt Magna Entertainment, installed Tapeta Footings, which is also installed at Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania and at the new Meydan racetrack in Dubai, which is scheduled for its grand opening in the next couple of weeks.
Charles did not confirm the Pro-Ride surface would be replaced with dirt,, though said a decision will soon be announced and that it would be supported by a majority of the trainers and jockeys he has spoken with. Charles said the synthetic tracks were installed with good intentions–to reduce injuries and make racing safer, especially during wet weather–but became an extremely polarizing issue in racing. The synthetic tracks were cited by Rachel Alexandra’s principal owner, Jess Jackson, as the reason his star filly did not compete in ther 2009 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita.
Then come back to the Paulick Report and let us know what you think about synthetic tracks and the possibility of Santa Anita returning to dirt for its main surface.
By Ray Paulick The California racing and breeding industry appears to have the stability of a bowl of Jello. Two tracks, Santa Anita Park and Golden Gate Fields, are owned by bankrupt Magna Entertainment and their future is cloudy. Hollywood Park is in the hands of a land developer that already bulldozed Bay Meadows and has similar plans for the Inglewood facility, though when he gets the money to develop the property is anyone’s guess. Del Mar is run by a non-profit association whose contract will soon expire. Training centers are being shut down, farms are closing and the foal crop is sinking. The former head of the California Horse Racing Board pleaded guilty to a crime most often committed by juvenile delinquents. The Thoroughbred Owners of California has been without an executive director for the last several months. And now the state’s Thoroughbred trainers are forming a circle, pulling out their weapons and getting ready to fire.
In a word, it’s a mess.
It’s been more than 15 years since the late Ed Friendly—the Emmy-winning television producer of such shows as “Laugh In” and “Little House on the Prairie”–led a revolt that ejected the Horsemen’s Benevolent and Protective Association from its traditional role representing the state’s owners and trainers and created the Thoroughbred Owners of California. TOC would be responsible for negotiating purse and simulcast contracts with racetracks and represent owners in front of the CHRB and state lawmakers. At the same time, a new group called California Thoroughbred Trainers was formed and certified, and their role was to deal with track management and the CHRB on issues related to backstretch conditions, track safety and benevolence.
Owners in other states have tried similar maneuvers but failed, in part because they lacked a leader with the tenacity and commitment of Ed Friendly and also because they didn’t have a focal point to rally around. For Friendly and his fellow owners, that focal point was a trainer-led boycott of Friday night racing at Hollywood Park in 1992. The trainers didn’t want to race at night, and Friendly said it wasn’t up to them to decide when to race his and his fellow owners’ horses. Friendly persevered and won the fight, getting legislation passed that created TOC and neutered the HBPA.
The two groups have pretty much stuck to the script since then, with TOC representing owners not only in California but on national organizations like the National Thoroughbred Racing Association. CTT has focused mainly on backstretch issues. How well has the arrangement worked? It depends on who you ask.
A group of prominent trainers have become increasingly unhappy with the situation and with the representation they were getting from the CTT. When an general election was held in June for three of the CTT’s board seats, trainer Jim Cassidy, who had served as president for the previous year, was voted off the board. The following month, when the newly seated board met (John Shirreffs, Clifford Sise and Ed Moger were elected in June, joining incumbents Dan Hendricks, Jack Carava, Bill Anton, Gloria Haley and Tim Bellasis), their first order of business was to appoint a replacement for Eoin Harty, who had resigned from the board with one year left on his term. Harty said he was spending an increasing amount of time out of state.
The board voted to replace Harty with Cassidy, who had the fourth-highest number of votes for the three board positions in the June election. After being put back on the board, Cassidy was then re-elected president on the second ballot (three individuals nominated on the first ballot each received three votes, and one of the candidates withdrew his name from consideration prior to the second ballot).
That sequence of events didn’t sit well with the trainers who voted to keep Cassidy off the board in June. Much like the Friday night boycotts motivated owners to form the TOC, the appointment of Cassidy and his subsequent reelection as president galvanized CTT’s critics. They formed an ad hoc group called California Horsemen for Change, and began laying the groundwork in an effort to replace CTT as the organization representing trainers. Members of the California Horsemen for Change and others met with the CTT last Friday (click here for a press release from the California Horsemen for Change), and urged the CTT’s board to vote for a new election to fill all nine board seats. The CTT board agreed, by a 5-4 vote according to a source, but additional changes in the bylaws will be required before they can wipe the slate clean and elect a new board of directors. According to a published report, one CTT member has challenged the legality of the board’s decision to hold a new election.
Interestingly, the trainer said to be behind this new organization is Darrell Vienna, one of the leaders of the Friday night boycott at Hollywood Park in 1992 that led to the HBPA being ousted and the trainers losing much of their clout. According to a source, Vienna, who is one of a number of trainers unhappy with the CHRB’s synthetic surface mandate at California racetracks, spoke up against the synthetic tracks at a CTT meeting earlier this year where the CHRB’s equine medical director, Dr. Rick Arthur, presented statistics comparing equine fatalities on dirt versus synthetics. Vienna “got into it” with Arthur, the source said, demanding to see the data of the study. At that point, Gloria Haley, a CTT board member from Northern California, was said to have reprimanded Vienna, reminding him that he was “guest” at the meeting. The comment apparently infuriated Vienna.
“When we had the vote three months ago I asked Vienna personally to run for the board,” Cassidy told the Paulick Report. “He refused. He said ‘I’m not getting involved.’” It looks as though he’s changed his mind.
Vienna didn’t answer questions when contacted by the Paulick Report, instead deferring them to Chris Knight, a recent law school graduate and son of trainers Chay and Mary Knight who has been brought on as interim executive director of the California Horsemen for Change. Knight downplayed any discord between any individuals within the two organizations or anger with the recent election, instead saying the “CTT and California trainers in general are dissatisfied with California racing. We’ve capitalized on the momentum and will be holding a new general election, having everyone involved.”
Knight said there are a number of critical issues, including:
- the pending closing of Fairplex Park to stabling and training due to revenue shortfalls;
- the poor economic state of the racetracks and the uncertainty over the future of Hollywood Park, Santa Anita Park, Golden Gate Fields and Del Mar;
- questions about the safety of the synthetic tracks;
- a desire to be more closely engaged with TOC (according to sources, there have been recent talks between CTT and TOC to bring the groups closer together).
Cassidy said the individuals within the two groups share common ground in many areas, including a desire for higher purses and greater stability in track ownership. “A lot of them have their own agendas including a change in surfaces, and I understand all that,” he said. ”I tell them we work on what we can. I’m at so many of these meetings that my head spins. I hate to see what’s happening, because people are desperate and angry, but those are the times we are in right now. I feel like the Lone Ranger.
By Ray Paulick Jess Jackson, the principal owner of star filly Rachel Alexandra, said during a New York Racing Association media teleconference on Wednesday afternoon he has no intention of ever running the Kentucky Oaks and Preakness winner on “plastic,” or synthetic racetracks, and ruled out any chance she would compete in this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships.
However, Jackson did say that if the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro remained healthy there was a very good chance she would remain in training in 2010 as a 4-year-old, with the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs a year-end goal.
Jackson and Rachel Alexandra’s jockey, Calvin Borel, answered a wide range of questions from the media in advance of Saturday’s Mother Goose at Belmont Park, in which Rachel Alexandra will be heavily favored. NYRA is offering free admission for women and giving away 10,000 pink bracelets embossed with Rachel Alexandra’s name in conjunction with the announcement by Jackson and his wife, Barbara Banke, to give a portion of any prize money won by the filly to the Susan B. Komen Race for the Cure for breast cancer.
While he gave no indication where Rachel Alexandra would surface following this weekend’s race against fellow 3-year-old fillies, Jackson said he wanted to run her against colts again, and included the nine-furlong Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park Aug. 2 and 10-furlong Travers at Saratoga Aug. 29 among the possibilities for her this summer. Each race for 3-year-olds carries a $1-million purse. He also listed as possible starts the $300,000 Coaching Club American Oaks for 3-year-old fillies going 10 furlongs at Belmont Park July 25; the $1-million Delaware Handicap , a 10-furlong event for fillies and mares, 3 and up at Delaware Park July 19; and the $600,000 Alabama for 3-year-old fillies going 10 furlongs at Saratoga Aug. 22. The spacing of her races was important, Jackson said, along with her physical condition.
Jackson said he would love to meet reigning filly and mare champion Zenyatta, but that it would have to happen outside of California. “I would hope we’d meet, but if it’s not in the stars, it’s not going to happen,” he said. “They’re going to have to come east or to some neutral track,” he said. “I’m not going to run on plastic (all of California’s major tracks have a synthetic surface instead of dirt). We don’t need to risk her that way.” Jackson said synthetic tracks tend to favor turf horses and that Rachel Alexandra has proven herself on the dirt. “You can’t predict the outcome of a race on plastic,” he said. “You see horses all finishing in a bunch.” Also, Jackson said the various synthetic manufacturers (Pro Ride, Cushion Track, Polytrack, Tapeta) each produce varying surfaces. “Man is interfering with nature,” he added.
Borel said he is confident the drop back to a one-turn nine-furlong race for Rachel Alexandra will not be a problem after going around two turns in her recent races. “She’s very versatile,” he said. “I’m going to ride that filly with confidence. For me to go out there and not ride her with confidence would be stupid.”
In other news, Jackson, a Californian who is a major contributor to both the Democratic and Republican parties in Kentucky, said he supported recently defeated legislation in Kentucky to bring video lottery terminals or slot machines to the state’s racetracks, though he admitted he “didn’t work hard for the bill because I was back working in California on the wine business. When I support a party or candidate, I do it so they can vote their own conscience. I look at the slots and gambling as an interim or short-term solution. The long term is best served if we can get together and voluntarily form a major league office with a commissioner.”
Jackson also said he “has been approached and am involved in trying to save Santa Anita Park,” which is scheduled to be sold as part of the Magna Entertainment bankruptcy proceedings. The Thoroughbred Owners of California recently confirmed it is planning to bid on the track in a bankruptcy auction. Jackson added that he is considering sending both mares and stallions to his home state in order to improve California’s breeding industry.
“It’s hard to get half the people in this industry to agree on what day it is,” a Central Kentucky breeder said to me a couple of weeks ago, shortly after the Breeders’ Cup announced suspension of the stakes supplement program for 2009. “I can’t believe 83% of the people voting in your poll agreed that the Breeders’ Cup board made the wrong decision.”
The day after the results of the Daily Paulick Poll were reported (83% opposed the decision by the board of directors not to use cash reserves to fund the program, 10% supported it and 7% were unsure), the Breeders’ Cup reversed field, reinstating the stakes supplements – at least for 2009. Breeders’ Cup president Greg Avioli said he did not “anticipate the fervor of the response” to the original decision to suspend the program. Apparently, the poll results reflected the response Avioli and board members received in the way of telephone calls and emails from nominators to the Breeders’ Cup from around the country.
This wasn’t the first time judgments ran strong on an issue on which readers of the Paulick Report were asked to vote. The polls are not scientific, but the results are quite interesting and we are flattered by the daily response. This much we’ve learned: You’ve got opinions.
The most recent results, in fact, represent the strongest sentiment of any of the 40 polls we have conducted since just before the Breeders’ Cup World Championships in late October. (Click
here to see archives of all the Daily Paulick Poll results.) We asked, “Does the National Thoroughbred Racing Association provide a strong central organization to move racing forward in the future?” The results have been stunning, with 94% saying “no” and only 6% answering “yes.”
In some ways, the question about the NTRA mirrored the results of earlier polls regarding the state of the industry and thoughts about some of the organizations that lead it. In mid-November, we asked, “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the Thoroughbred industry in the United States at this time.” The question was parallel to the right track/wrong track question the Gallup organization periodically asks of American citizens about the state of the nation.
According to our poll, 91% answered “dissatisfied,” suggesting the industry is currently on the wrong track. Of the remainder, 4% said they were satisfied and 5% were unsure. One e-mailer suggested that the 4% who said they were satisfied must not have understood the question.
Along those same lines, in early December we asked, “Are you confident the individuals in charge of the most prominent racing and breeding organizations in the United States are adequately addressing the problems the industry is currently facing?” That resulted in an 85% no confidence vote, with 10% saying they are confident in our industry leaders and 5% unsure.
A specific question about one of the year’s biggest stories, the creation of the NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance, indicated skepticism among voters. While 8% agreed that it was a “major step forward in the areas of medication and safety issues and will result in significant improvements” and 27% called it a “good idea, but it’s too early to say whether or not it will be effective,” fully 44% voted that the alliance was “designed to keep the federal government from stepping in and taking action” on safety and medication. Another 22% said it will be “ineffective because the NTRA lacks authority to enforce its recommendations.”
Poll responses to questions about how to improve the economics of racing were less conclusive. For example, we asked which of three areas of growth were most important to the future success of racing: reinvigorating on-track business, expanding account wagering through TV or on-line video streaming, or getting subsidies from slot machines or other forms of gaming. Reinvigorating on-track business got the most votes, 45% of respondents, barely ahead of the 41% who believe account wagering is the industry’s best hope. Only 14% believe growth from slots/alternative gaming is the answer. A more specific question about slot machines ended with a four-way dead heat, with each of the following answers getting 25% of the votes: 1) slots are a short-term fix to boost revenue; 2) they are a long-term necessity for racing to be competitive; 3) they are a necessary evil; and 4) I oppose slot machines at tracks.
On the issue of simulcast revenue, the poll run in conjunction with an article by Fred Pope on what he calls “
Priority 1: Racing’s Business Model” found 63% agreeing with Pope that host tracks and owners where the live race is run should get the lion’s share of takeout revenue. Another 29% believe it should be divided equally between the host site and where the bet is taken, and only 7% support the current model that leaves most of the revenue from simulcast wagers with the bet takers.
The level of takeout has been hotly debated in the comment sections of Pope’s article and several other related pieces. Our only poll question on the subject came after the
We’ve touched on many other areas in our polls. For example, 55% of voters opposed Breeders’ Cup putting all of the filly and mare races on the Friday program of the two-day championships, with 18% in support and 27% taking a “wait and see” approach; 49% opposed having the Breeders’ Cup dirt races run on a synthetic track, while 39% supported it and 12% unsure. In the breeding world, in mid-December, 65% of voters said stud fees had not been reduced enough, 31% said the reductions were “about right,” and 4% felt they had been lowered too much. A comparison of the three highest-priced new stallions of 2009 found that Henrythenavigator offered greater value and opportunity for success to breeders than Curlin and Big Brown. The votes were 52% for Henrythenavigator, 44% for Curlin and 4% for Big Brown.
Finally, in light of the depressed bloodstock markets and a downward trend in pari-mutuel handle in 2008, a year-end poll asked readers if they believe 2009 will be a better year. Only 24% said they feel 2009 will be improved from 2008, with 52% saying it will be worse and 24% believing it will be the same.
Naturally, we hope our readers will be proven wrong and that 2009 will be a year that the industry addresses some of its biggest issues: organizational structure, leadership and a new business model that reflects the reality that roughly 10% of wagers are taken on-track where a race is being run. It’s clear there is a high level of discontent currently running throughout the industry, but it’s just as obvious that the passion to have racing stage a comeback is equally strong.
After 48 hours of being told horse racing needs newer and younger and more female fans, Ray Paulick is mad as hell and he isn’t going to take it anymore. He wants to know, among other things: Why does racing hate us old men? Ray’s gavel to snooze button coverage of the 32nd Asian Racing Conference takes a diversion today as he offers stream of consciousness (when conscious) coverage of the final programs from Tokyo, which touch on television, wagering, and the dreaded S.S. (synthetic surfaces).
CONFESSION: I’M AN OLD (55) MAN and am feeling a bit lonely. Racing doesn’t want me anymore. It seems more interested in younger people, men with fulls heads of hair, and women who giggle and love horses but have never bet more than $2 to show on a race. What have I done, to borrow from the Aussies, to hack you off? All I and my fellow old men do is go to your tracks, buy your lousy food, bet till our pockets are empty, and fall asleep on the train on the way home. Yet you would rather cater to people who don’t even like your product. Where’s the love, racing?
It’s not just an American problem, this fixation racing has on replacing the dead with people with a heartbeat. It’s going on in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan. Everywhere horses race, the marketers hate us old men.
Just yesterday, a producer from Fuji television, which broadcasts into 90% of Japanese homes, was lamenting that his Sunday racing telecasts have a demographic that is so old that he can only sell advertising time to rocking chair and walking stick manufacturers. Actually, it isn’t quite that bad, but old men were making up such an increasing percentage of the Sunday racing programs’ audience over the past 10 years (from 47% to 63%) to the point that producers decided to shake up the broadcast and bring in people who knew nothing about racing but had some connection with celebrity. There’s hope for David Hasselhoff over here in Japan!
Worse yet, Fuji’s racing telecast ratings declined over those 10 years, from 7.7 (about 3 million households) to 5.0 (about 2 million). Fuji’s metrics people are very clever, measuring their audience segments into eight categories (two youth, and three each by age group for male and female). The "old man" portion of the audience remained the same over those 10 years, with losses coming in the younger and female segment. So Fuji decided to take it out on the old men by providing programming that was irrelevant or irritating to them.
But wait. The Fuji TV producer, Masanari Funaki, said the younger generation is watching all of television less, not just racing telecasts. They have discovered the Internet, video games and mobile phone networking. Nevertheless, Fuji opted to ignore the old men and provide less information about handicapping and gambling (which us old guys like) and show more personality features, make the program more entertaining and focus more on "the sporting aspects of horse racing."
His reason? "We wanted to catch some of those sports fans who might be channel surfing," Funaki said. "We think it’s very important for viewers to see horse racing programs in the same way they see other sports programs, so we don’t overpromote the gambling aspect and get viewers to see the human element. We show more about jockeys, their histories and their background."
What a fool, I thought.
Not so fast, my friend. "This year’s racing telecast ratings are up," Funaki said.
Fuji TV also developed a Saturday night midnight racing telecast that focuses on handicapping the Sunday race, using well-known handicappers from six Tokyo newspapers who scream at each other about how stupid they are.Kind of like the three talking heads on TVG. "Those programs are very popular with younger men," Funaki said.
In my country, Mr. Funaki, old men are asleep by midnight.
SOMEONE ELSE ON THE TELEVISION PANEL SET UP A HORSEY PINATA representing the American racing industry and people took turns whacking it and reminding us of how stupid we are in the United States.
Those guys from the United Kingdom and Australia are so smart, just because they know how to tell time. Smug. They have a 3 o’clock race at Ascot and a 3;15 at Lingfield in the UK, and in Australia (where the clocks are upside down), they manage to televise about 12,000 horse races every day without having any post times overlapping with one another. The reason? Apparently, they can maximize wagering by coordinating post times for the races.
In America, experience has shown that it’s much better to have three races from major tracks all start at exactly the same time, so that simulcast or account wagering customers have to choose between races rather than bet on all three. It’s called maximizing stupidity, or something like that. "America’s most famous racetracks have races going off right on top of each other," said Brendan Parnell, chief operating officer for Australia’s Tabcorp. "They are cannibalizing or eating each other’s lunch and missing great opportunities. People are getting shut out."
Whack! Take that, you damned Yankees.
OLD MEN AREN’T THE ONLY ENEMIES OF RACING. So are governments, who set and enforce ominous hurdles that keep the sport from seizing on some great opportunities, such as a "global bet." (Aren’t most governments and racing regulatory bodies run by old men? Yes!)
John Stuart, who carries the creative title "director of international marketing and operations" for the make-believe Phumelela Gaming and Leisure Co. (what, there really is a place called Phumelela?), presented a science fiction video about a global horse bet called the "Universal," where fans in any country pick the first eight finishers of a big international race like the Japan Cup and create a betting pool in excess of a billion dollars. "Had Barack Obama been watching that," Stuart said, "he’d be shouting ‘yes, we can,’ ‘yes, we can.’ So should we be."
Of course, that will never happen because too many governments have protectionist laws prohibiting commingling of betting pools from one country to another. Plus, the American totalizator companies would still be accepting bets after the race is over.
A SERIES OF PRESENTATIONS ON MEDICATION featuring dreadfully boring attorneys and veterinarians has just about everyone in the room nodding off until a snappy Q&A segment near the end when the moderator directed a question about illegal drugs to Brian Stewart, head of veterinary regulation and international liaison to the Hong Kong Jockey Club. Specifically, Stewart was asked by Australian turf editor Bart Sinclair whether blood-doping agents like EPO, which have plagued cycling and some other sports, are being used in racing. Stewart nodded to the affirmative. "How big a problem is EPO?" Sinclair asked. "I’d say it’s widepread," Stewart said. That sent many Asian Racing Federation delegates straight to the bar for a stiff one.
THERE ALSO WAS MUCH DISCUSSION ABOUT HANDICAPPING INFORMATION. What should be given to these young fans who don’t exist yet? How should we deliver information to them? Gift wrapped with local currency, I think.
Howard Wright, senior editor for England’s Racing Post and one of the people in the media who "gets it," had me going there for a minute when he said the racing industry in Great Britain actually wants to make money from newspapers for providing information about horse racing to fans. Good one, Howard. They can’t be that arrogant over there, can they? Seems like the industry should be paying newspapers to promote the sport, not the other way around.
Howard, like me, is a slightly grumpy old man who does see the need for racing to replace those of us who will soon be pushing daisies. He also understands these young kids today don’t know how to read a newspaper, but doesn’t think the traditional ways of providing handicapping information (Racing Post, Daily Racing Form) should be abandoned. "One size fits all no longer applies," he said. "The media has to find ways of satisfying its traditional horse racing audience while also accommodating the PlayStation generation, who want their involvement presented in small pieces and want it now." It’s time for "Racing Form Lite" he said. Tastes great, less filling!
Howard also mentioned the budget cutbacks in most daily newspapers (e.g., they are dying faster than us old men), and suggested that racing isn’t alone in having its editorial space reduced. "Racing will never beat football," he reminded. Someone got out the Pinata again and started talking about how American newspapers have stopped covering horse racing altogether. Whack, whack, whack!
SOMEONE SUGGESTED THIS NEW THING CALLED THE INTERNET might be a good way to deliver information to these newbies. That’s where the kids are hanging out these days, aren’t they? To strategerize about this, the Asian Racing Federation found a really smart kid, Koichi Yamamoto, who must be the youngest senior research director the Dentsu Institute has ever had. (He got his MBA from Columbia University when he was, like, 12 years old.)
Yamamoto outlined how blogs and social networking have changed things and talked about how businsses need to reach "new influencers," people who are constantly communicating online by networking and commenting on blogs and never breathing fresh air. These "new influencers" might not be as informed as us old guys or as opinioned; in fact, they are more easy to influence than us stick in the mud types, Yamamoto said. But don’t inundate these "new influencers" with gibberish, he said, because they are adept at filtering out useless crap. "Only the most attractive and relevant information gets through," he said.
If the message gets through, however, Katy bar the door. Word of mouth is the new king, he said. Social trends spread at lightning speed. "People want to tell friends about things that at least some people know, but not too many people know," Yamamoto said. "The topicality window opens faster and closes faster."
Yamamoto said the newbs are hip to the trick of marketing people. "Increasingly sophisticated consumers can easily see through marketing schemes," he said. "Relationships with these consumers is more important than ever. Strong relationships turn information-filtering consumers into information-hungry consumers."
Can I get a translator please?
"WHAT IF STEVE JOBS WERE TO ENTER THE RACING INDUSTRY? How would Apple innovate the customer experience?" Those questions were asked by Edward Tse, a McKinsey and Co. consultant to the Hong Kong Jockey Club who encouraged racing associations to think more innovatively than they have done in the past. Tse reviewed the depressing statistics that show pari-mutuel handle losing altitude and asked if it is sufficient to simply launch new bet types, which many racing associations have tried. "Or," he asked, "do we need a new approach?"
He then listed six building blocks needed for innovation: 1) tax reform and product pricing; 2) customer segment expansion; 3) channel innovation and expansion; 4) product and service innovation; 5) image or brand building; 6) customer relationship management/loyalty.
Savvy guys like Tse do all sorts of analytics, and he said the most valuable ones are predictive in nature: in other words, get a swami to crunch your numbers. Short of that, he said, try and get predictive analytics that answer the following questions: What’s the best thing that can happen? What will happen next? If these trends continue, why?
Tse said companies that do this well include Capital One, the annoying credit card company that fills your mailbox with junk every day, the consumer electronics store Best Buy (news of their current problems hadn’t reached Tse yet), and the Harrah’s casino company, which he said "revolutionized the casino industry by adopting highly analytic customer focused innovation."
Harrah’s, he said, separates all of its customers into segments by profit potential, drives those customers to aspire to a higher level, optimizes placement of its slot machines in the best locations, and uses customer satisfaction measurements to shape their business plan. The whole point of this is to separate the customers from their money, and Harrah’s is extremely good at that.
Back to racing. Tse insisted that new approaches to the customer experience are required to modernize the industry. Following Harrah’s lead, racing associations must use deep customer segmentation and analytics as the foundation for innovation. "For most racing organizations," Tse said, "this will require a different mindset and new skills."
Unfortunately, many people with those skills end up working at a company like Apple.
DO LOWER PRICES INCREASE SALES? The Hong Kong Jockey Club was curious to see if the cost of a bet could affect how much is wagered, so they tried something foreign to most horseplayers: they lowered prices. Specifically, the HKJC offered rebates for losing bets made by some of their highest-rolling customers. The net result: players who received rebates, thereby effectively lowering their takeout, wagered more.
It wasn’t that easy, though. To give rebates, the HKJC had to cut a deal with government that gave them the flexibility to offer innovative programs like rebates. The agreement worked both ways, with the HKJC guaranteeing HK$8 billion in annual revenue to the government, more than they’d gotten the previous year. The HKJC wanted to expand the number of race days from 78 a year and the number of commingled simulcasts from 10. The government didn’t budge on those requests.
The rebates were for losing bets of HK$10,000 and up (about US$1,200) on win, place, quinella and quinella place wagers. To coincide with the introduction of the bets, the HKJC convinced 500 bettors from different wagering segments (frequent, occasional, big bettors, small bettors) to allow their betting to be tracked for analytical purposes. Not surprisingly, big, frequent players took advantage of the rebates the most, effectively lowering takeout from 18.7% to 16.9% and increasing the volume of their bets by having more money to churn. For the occasional and smaller players, the rebate and lure of lower takeout made little or no difference.
The rebates were funded by the HKJC, which looked at them as a marketing investment in their future. Handle increased, but not to the extent that it paid for itself. Bill Nader, the former New York Racing Association chief operating officer who is now executive director of the HKJC, said the organization hopes it will pay dividends in the long run.
MR. SEKIGUCHI, WHERE ARE YOU? Fusaro Sekiguchi, the flamboyant Japanese businessman who raced Fusaichi Sekuguchi to victory in the 2000 Kentucky Derby and has been a major buyer at foal and yearling sales around the world over the last decade, has been keeping a very low profile in his native Japan recently.
Some Japanese racing insiders have said he has sold most of his horses and others have suggested the global credit crunch may have dealt him a severe blow. Last time I saw him was in the paddock of the Tokyo Race Course at the Japan Cup a couple of year ago, where he was nattily dressed as usual. Sekiguchi has had some ups and downs in his racing and business career (famously failing to pay Keeneland on some yearling purchases prior to buying FuPeg for $4 million, and later getting fired by the company he started), and he always seems to land on his feet.
Here’s hoping we see him in the winner’s circle again real soon.
DARLEY JAPAN FARM EXPANDING: Darley Japan Farm, the Japanese breeding entity on Hokkaido owned by Ken Mishima, has expanded with the purchase of Nishiyama Farm, whose previous owner raced Paradise Creek, winner of the Eclipse Award as outstanding turf male in 1994. Though it’s a bit confusing, Darley Japan Farm and Darley Japan (which stands stallions) are separate entities, in part because of the licensing peculiarities of the JRA that require Japanese owners of breeding farms.
FINALLY, THE GRAND FINALE THAT WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING FORWARD TO…the "cage match" discussion arguing the merits of synthetic surfaces.
Ian Pearse of Pro-Ride surfaces of Australia, bragged on the results of the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita while Michael Dickinson, waiting for his turn to speak about his creation, Tapeta Footings, sat patiently onstage sticking pins into a voodoo doll that resembled Ron Charles, who chose Pro-Ride over Tapeta for Santa Anita, host of the 2008 and 2009 world championships.
Raji Jayaraju then sang the praises of the synthetic surface installed at the Singapore Turf Club track where he is senior manager. Singapore’s new track has been very useful because of the heavy rain they get in Singapore that often leaves the turf course extremely soggy. Jockeys and trainers said in a video that the synthetic track was terrific (under threat of a caning?).
Dr. Toshiyushi Takahashi, a representative of the JRA, presented some scientific research that showed why synthetic tracks might be safer than Japanese dirt tracks. The JRA installed synthetic material on one of its training tracks and compared hoof impact between dirt and synthetic tracks, measuring the velocity of impact and time of hoof stabilization at impact. Dr. Takahashi summarized by saying that synthetic tracks are more stable and provide more traction than dirt or wood chip tracks, and are more constant at the time of hoof landing.
But that science is meaningless in the face of comments from turf writers and horse players who are more concerned with tradition and form than the safety of horses.
"To those of you who train, for those of you who’ve got sand and dirt tracks, please switch to synthetics," Dickinson said. when asked about safety. "Whether you go with Tapeta, Pro-Ride or my good friend Martin Collins’ Polytrack, please change. It’s much safer for the horses." Apparently, someone "got to" the panelists and said no name calling. Cage match cancelled.
That’s it from the Asian Racing Conference. I’ll summarize what I’ve learned over these last few days in a forthcoming commentary.