After 48 hours of being told horse racing needs newer and younger and more female fans, Ray Paulick is mad as hell and he isn’t going to take it anymore. He wants to know, among other things: Why does racing hate us old men? Ray’s gavel to snooze button coverage of the 32nd Asian Racing Conference takes a diversion today as he offers stream of consciousness (when conscious) coverage of the final programs from Tokyo, which touch on television, wagering, and the dreaded S.S. (synthetic surfaces).
CONFESSION: I’M AN OLD (55) MAN and am feeling a bit lonely. Racing doesn’t want me anymore. It seems more interested in younger people, men with fulls heads of hair, and women who giggle and love horses but have never bet more than $2 to show on a race. What have I done, to borrow from the Aussies, to hack you off? All I and my fellow old men do is go to your tracks, buy your lousy food, bet till our pockets are empty, and fall asleep on the train on the way home. Yet you would rather cater to people who don’t even like your product. Where’s the love, racing?
It’s not just an American problem, this fixation racing has on replacing the dead with people with a heartbeat. It’s going on in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan. Everywhere horses race, the marketers hate us old men.
Just yesterday, a producer from Fuji television, which broadcasts into 90% of Japanese homes, was lamenting that his Sunday racing telecasts have a demographic that is so old that he can only sell advertising time to rocking chair and walking stick manufacturers. Actually, it isn’t quite that bad, but old men were making up such an increasing percentage of the Sunday racing programs’ audience over the past 10 years (from 47% to 63%) to the point that producers decided to shake up the broadcast and bring in people who knew nothing about racing but had some connection with celebrity. There’s hope for David Hasselhoff over here in Japan!
Worse yet, Fuji’s racing telecast ratings declined over those 10 years, from 7.7 (about 3 million households) to 5.0 (about 2 million). Fuji’s metrics people are very clever, measuring their audience segments into eight categories (two youth, and three each by age group for male and female). The "old man" portion of the audience remained the same over those 10 years, with losses coming in the younger and female segment. So Fuji decided to take it out on the old men by providing programming that was irrelevant or irritating to them.
But wait. The Fuji TV producer, Masanari Funaki, said the younger generation is watching all of television less, not just racing telecasts. They have discovered the Internet, video games and mobile phone networking. Nevertheless, Fuji opted to ignore the old men and provide less information about handicapping and gambling (which us old guys like) and show more personality features, make the program more entertaining and focus more on "the sporting aspects of horse racing."
His reason? "We wanted to catch some of those sports fans who might be channel surfing," Funaki said. "We think it’s very important for viewers to see horse racing programs in the same way they see other sports programs, so we don’t overpromote the gambling aspect and get viewers to see the human element. We show more about jockeys, their histories and their background."
What a fool, I thought.
Not so fast, my friend. "This year’s racing telecast ratings are up," Funaki said.
Fuji TV also developed a Saturday night midnight racing telecast that focuses on handicapping the Sunday race, using well-known handicappers from six Tokyo newspapers who scream at each other about how stupid they are.Kind of like the three talking heads on TVG. "Those programs are very popular with younger men," Funaki said.
In my country, Mr. Funaki, old men are asleep by midnight.
SOMEONE ELSE ON THE TELEVISION PANEL SET UP A HORSEY PINATA representing the American racing industry and people took turns whacking it and reminding us of how stupid we are in the United States.
Those guys from the United Kingdom and Australia are so smart, just because they know how to tell time. Smug. They have a 3 o’clock race at Ascot and a 3;15 at Lingfield in the UK, and in Australia (where the clocks are upside down), they manage to televise about 12,000 horse races every day without having any post times overlapping with one another. The reason? Apparently, they can maximize wagering by coordinating post times for the races.
In America, experience has shown that it’s much better to have three races from major tracks all start at exactly the same time, so that simulcast or account wagering customers have to choose between races rather than bet on all three. It’s called maximizing stupidity, or something like that. "America’s most famous racetracks have races going off right on top of each other," said Brendan Parnell, chief operating officer for Australia’s Tabcorp. "They are cannibalizing or eating each other’s lunch and missing great opportunities. People are getting shut out."
Whack! Take that, you damned Yankees.
OLD MEN AREN’T THE ONLY ENEMIES OF RACING. So are governments, who set and enforce ominous hurdles that keep the sport from seizing on some great opportunities, such as a "global bet." (Aren’t most governments and racing regulatory bodies run by old men? Yes!)
John Stuart, who carries the creative title "director of international marketing and operations" for the make-believe Phumelela Gaming and Leisure Co. (what, there really is a place called Phumelela?), presented a science fiction video about a global horse bet called the "Universal," where fans in any country pick the first eight finishers of a big international race like the Japan Cup and create a betting pool in excess of a billion dollars. "Had Barack Obama been watching that," Stuart said, "he’d be shouting ‘yes, we can,’ ‘yes, we can.’ So should we be."
Of course, that will never happen because too many governments have protectionist laws prohibiting commingling of betting pools from one country to another. Plus, the American totalizator companies would still be accepting bets after the race is over.
A SERIES OF PRESENTATIONS ON MEDICATION featuring dreadfully boring attorneys and veterinarians has just about everyone in the room nodding off until a snappy Q&A segment near the end when the moderator directed a question about illegal drugs to Brian Stewart, head of veterinary regulation and international liaison to the Hong Kong Jockey Club. Specifically, Stewart was asked by Australian turf editor Bart Sinclair whether blood-doping agents like EPO, which have plagued cycling and some other sports, are being used in racing. Stewart nodded to the affirmative. "How big a problem is EPO?" Sinclair asked. "I’d say it’s widepread," Stewart said. That sent many Asian Racing Federation delegates straight to the bar for a stiff one.
THERE ALSO WAS MUCH DISCUSSION ABOUT HANDICAPPING INFORMATION. What should be given to these young fans who don’t exist yet? How should we deliver information to them? Gift wrapped with local currency, I think.
Howard Wright, senior editor for England’s Racing Post and one of the people in the media who "gets it," had me going there for a minute when he said the racing industry in Great Britain actually wants to make money from newspapers for providing information about horse racing to fans. Good one, Howard. They can’t be that arrogant over there, can they? Seems like the industry should be paying newspapers to promote the sport, not the other way around.
Howard, like me, is a slightly grumpy old man who does see the need for racing to replace those of us who will soon be pushing daisies. He also understands these young kids today don’t know how to read a newspaper, but doesn’t think the traditional ways of providing handicapping information (Racing Post, Daily Racing Form) should be abandoned. "One size fits all no longer applies," he said. "The media has to find ways of satisfying its traditional horse racing audience while also accommodating the PlayStation generation, who want their involvement presented in small pieces and want it now." It’s time for "Racing Form Lite" he said. Tastes great, less filling!
Howard also mentioned the budget cutbacks in most daily newspapers (e.g., they are dying faster than us old men), and suggested that racing isn’t alone in having its editorial space reduced. "Racing will never beat football," he reminded. Someone got out the Pinata again and started talking about how American newspapers have stopped covering horse racing altogether. Whack, whack, whack!
SOMEONE SUGGESTED THIS NEW THING CALLED THE INTERNET might be a good way to deliver information to these newbies. That’s where the kids are hanging out these days, aren’t they? To strategerize about this, the Asian Racing Federation found a really smart kid, Koichi Yamamoto, who must be the youngest senior research director the Dentsu Institute has ever had. (He got his MBA from Columbia University when he was, like, 12 years old.)
Yamamoto outlined how blogs and social networking have changed things and talked about how businsses need to reach "new influencers," people who are constantly communicating online by networking and commenting on blogs and never breathing fresh air. These "new influencers" might not be as informed as us old guys or as opinioned; in fact, they are more easy to influence than us stick in the mud types, Yamamoto said. But don’t inundate these "new influencers" with gibberish, he said, because they are adept at filtering out useless crap. "Only the most attractive and relevant information gets through," he said.
If the message gets through, however, Katy bar the door. Word of mouth is the new king, he said. Social trends spread at lightning speed. "People want to tell friends about things that at least some people know, but not too many people know," Yamamoto said. "The topicality window opens faster and closes faster."
Yamamoto said the newbs are hip to the trick of marketing people. "Increasingly sophisticated consumers can easily see through marketing schemes," he said. "Relationships with these consumers is more important than ever. Strong relationships turn information-filtering consumers into information-hungry consumers."
Can I get a translator please?
"WHAT IF STEVE JOBS WERE TO ENTER THE RACING INDUSTRY? How would Apple innovate the customer experience?" Those questions were asked by Edward Tse, a McKinsey and Co. consultant to the Hong Kong Jockey Club who encouraged racing associations to think more innovatively than they have done in the past. Tse reviewed the depressing statistics that show pari-mutuel handle losing altitude and asked if it is sufficient to simply launch new bet types, which many racing associations have tried. "Or," he asked, "do we need a new approach?"
He then listed six building blocks needed for innovation: 1) tax reform and product pricing; 2) customer segment expansion; 3) channel innovation and expansion; 4) product and service innovation; 5) image or brand building; 6) customer relationship management/loyalty.
Savvy guys like Tse do all sorts of analytics, and he said the most valuable ones are predictive in nature: in other words, get a swami to crunch your numbers. Short of that, he said, try and get predictive analytics that answer the following questions: What’s the best thing that can happen? What will happen next? If these trends continue, why?
Tse said companies that do this well include Capital One, the annoying credit card company that fills your mailbox with junk every day, the consumer electronics store Best Buy (news of their current problems hadn’t reached Tse yet), and the Harrah’s casino company, which he said "revolutionized the casino industry by adopting highly analytic customer focused innovation."
Harrah’s, he said, separates all of its customers into segments by profit potential, drives those customers to aspire to a higher level, optimizes placement of its slot machines in the best locations, and uses customer satisfaction measurements to shape their business plan. The whole point of this is to separate the customers from their money, and Harrah’s is extremely good at that.
Back to racing. Tse insisted that new approaches to the customer experience are required to modernize the industry. Following Harrah’s lead, racing associations must use deep customer segmentation and analytics as the foundation for innovation. "For most racing organizations," Tse said, "this will require a different mindset and new skills."
Unfortunately, many people with those skills end up working at a company like Apple.
DO LOWER PRICES INCREASE SALES? The Hong Kong Jockey Club was curious to see if the cost of a bet could affect how much is wagered, so they tried something foreign to most horseplayers: they lowered prices. Specifically, the HKJC offered rebates for losing bets made by some of their highest-rolling customers. The net result: players who received rebates, thereby effectively lowering their takeout, wagered more.
It wasn’t that easy, though. To give rebates, the HKJC had to cut a deal with government that gave them the flexibility to offer innovative programs like rebates. The agreement worked both ways, with the HKJC guaranteeing HK$8 billion in annual revenue to the government, more than they’d gotten the previous year. The HKJC wanted to expand the number of race days from 78 a year and the number of commingled simulcasts from 10. The government didn’t budge on those requests.
The rebates were for losing bets of HK$10,000 and up (about US$1,200) on win, place, quinella and quinella place wagers. To coincide with the introduction of the bets, the HKJC convinced 500 bettors from different wagering segments (frequent, occasional, big bettors, small bettors) to allow their betting to be tracked for analytical purposes. Not surprisingly, big, frequent players took advantage of the rebates the most, effectively lowering takeout from 18.7% to 16.9% and increasing the volume of their bets by having more money to churn. For the occasional and smaller players, the rebate and lure of lower takeout made little or no difference.
The rebates were funded by the HKJC, which looked at them as a marketing investment in their future. Handle increased, but not to the extent that it paid for itself. Bill Nader, the former New York Racing Association chief operating officer who is now executive director of the HKJC, said the organization hopes it will pay dividends in the long run.
MR. SEKIGUCHI, WHERE ARE YOU? Fusaro Sekiguchi, the flamboyant Japanese businessman who raced Fusaichi Sekuguchi to victory in the 2000 Kentucky Derby and has been a major buyer at foal and yearling sales around the world over the last decade, has been keeping a very low profile in his native Japan recently.
Some Japanese racing insiders have said he has sold most of his horses and others have suggested the global credit crunch may have dealt him a severe blow. Last time I saw him was in the paddock of the Tokyo Race Course at the Japan Cup a couple of year ago, where he was nattily dressed as usual. Sekiguchi has had some ups and downs in his racing and business career (famously failing to pay Keeneland on some yearling purchases prior to buying FuPeg for $4 million, and later getting fired by the company he started), and he always seems to land on his feet.
Here’s hoping we see him in the winner’s circle again real soon.
DARLEY JAPAN FARM EXPANDING: Darley Japan Farm, the Japanese breeding entity on Hokkaido owned by Ken Mishima, has expanded with the purchase of Nishiyama Farm, whose previous owner raced Paradise Creek, winner of the Eclipse Award as outstanding turf male in 1994. Though it’s a bit confusing, Darley Japan Farm and Darley Japan (which stands stallions) are separate entities, in part because of the licensing peculiarities of the JRA that require Japanese owners of breeding farms.
FINALLY, THE GRAND FINALE THAT WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING FORWARD TO…the "cage match" discussion arguing the merits of synthetic surfaces.
Ian Pearse of Pro-Ride surfaces of Australia, bragged on the results of the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita while Michael Dickinson, waiting for his turn to speak about his creation, Tapeta Footings, sat patiently onstage sticking pins into a voodoo doll that resembled Ron Charles, who chose Pro-Ride over Tapeta for Santa Anita, host of the 2008 and 2009 world championships.
Raji Jayaraju then sang the praises of the synthetic surface installed at the Singapore Turf Club track where he is senior manager. Singapore’s new track has been very useful because of the heavy rain they get in Singapore that often leaves the turf course extremely soggy. Jockeys and trainers said in a video that the synthetic track was terrific (under threat of a caning?).
Dr. Toshiyushi Takahashi, a representative of the JRA, presented some scientific research that showed why synthetic tracks might be safer than Japanese dirt tracks. The JRA installed synthetic material on one of its training tracks and compared hoof impact between dirt and synthetic tracks, measuring the velocity of impact and time of hoof stabilization at impact. Dr. Takahashi summarized by saying that synthetic tracks are more stable and provide more traction than dirt or wood chip tracks, and are more constant at the time of hoof landing.
But that science is meaningless in the face of comments from turf writers and horse players who are more concerned with tradition and form than the safety of horses.
"To those of you who train, for those of you who’ve got sand and dirt tracks, please switch to synthetics," Dickinson said. when asked about safety. "Whether you go with Tapeta, Pro-Ride or my good friend Martin Collins’ Polytrack, please change. It’s much safer for the horses." Apparently, someone "got to" the panelists and said no name calling. Cage match cancelled.
That’s it from the Asian Racing Conference. I’ll summarize what I’ve learned over these last few days in a forthcoming commentary.
By Ray PaulickI knew I wasn’t in Kentucky anymore when I went out for an early morning walk and came across a group of about 20 people standing at a nearby intersection. It was only a two-lane road, and there wasn’t a car in sight in any direction, yet everyone stood patiently for what seemed an eternity, waiting for the crosswalk light to change from red to green.
I resisted the temptation that any American who’s ever jaywalked across a city street surely would have had.
When the light changed, everyone broke into a brisk walk, as if, all of a sudden, they were in a hurry. It is one of the strange idiosyncrasies of the people of Japan, this nation of talking elevators, American fast-food, on-time trains and silly television commercials. Its natives honor Japanese laws, yet many of them complain privately about the nature of their traditions.
I’ve come to Tokyo ostensibly to cover the 32nd Asian Racing Conference, which began on Sunday with a trip to the Tokyo Race Course and runs through Thursday. (The time frame of some of my reports may seem a bit odd since I’ll be writing in the past tense about days that haven’t yet arrived in most of the U.S., since Tokyo is plus 14 hours from Eastern Standard Time.)
In truth, however, I’ve decided to cash in some frequent flier miles and come to Japan to meet and hear from officials representing racing countries that have faced challenges, worked cooperatively and developed strategies they hope will succeed and help them grow and prosper. I’ve come for a shot of optimism after nearly drowning in the sea of pessimism that saturates American racing these days, where the efforts seem to focus on stopping the bleeding and the only strategy relies on subsidies from other forms of gambling. Most American tracks have given up on the idea that they can be competitive anymore.
One example: In Hong Kong, where the stock market has fallen by nearly 50% in the current financial crisis, betting is off by about 6%. But the Hong Kong Jockey Club, instead of wringing their hands over the dreadful economy, has developed a new program to give bettors a 10% rebate on individual losing bets that exceed a certain amount.
Another story: When on-track business peaked at Japan Racing Association tracks in the mid 1990s, the JRA looked at its aging flagship track, Tokyo Race Course, and rebuilt the main grandstand, giving it a much more inviting design, one that in some ways resembles the Forum Shops of Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. When they began losing fans, their strategy was fixed on giving on-track customers a better experience.
There are more than 600 delegates here from at least 30 countries. The Asian Racing Federation, which presents the conference, consists of racing nations from Asia, Australia/New Zealand, Africa and the Persian Gulf. These countries represent 36% of the world’s prize money, 32% of the international foal crops and 47% of global wagering on pari-mutuel racing. Europeans and Americans are welcome to attend the conference, though only a handful of them do. Only five Americans are scheduled to be here, two of whom are journalists.
Among those I ran into at the track was Michael Dickinson and his partner, Joan Wakefield, who are here as exhibitors for Tapeta Footings, the synthetic surface developed by Dickinson that has been used so successfully at, among other places, Golden Gate Fields, Presque Isle Downs and the Fair Hill Training Center in the U.S., and as a training track in Dubai. Dickinson, of course, is hoping to find new clients among the Asian Racing Federation’s membership.
It was the couple’s first visit to Japan, and as someone who’s been to Tokyo a number of times for the Japan Cup and other major races, I gave them a walking tour of the massive, yet elegant new building. They were amazed at the cleanliness and bright, friendly design, the variety of comfort levels, and the size and length of the nine-story main structure, which is nearly a quarter-mile long.
In the bowels of the grandstand, there is a maze of tunnels for horses to use as they leave the paddock, go onto one of the three tracks, or return to the stable area. We took one tunnel up to the winner’s circle, where Dickinson gazed wistfully out onto the main turf course and dirt track, desperately wanting to walk the courses to get a feel for them. The former trainer is a man long obsessed with the conditions and safety of racing surfaces, and his new calling as a proponent of synthetic tracks comes to him naturally.
“Do you think it would be okay for me to walk out there, after all the races have run, just to see what the dirt and grass tracks are like?” Dickinson asked. And he wasn’t kidding.
I’ll try to find out tomorrow whether the man known as the “mad genius” found his way out there to sample the footing of the Tokyo turf and dirt. I’ll be reporting from inside the meeting and presentation rooms of the conference, and working the unofficial meetings and break rooms for the latest news and gossip throughout the racing world.
I’ve come here in search of some optimism for our sport, to learn more about how other countries have achieved their success. I’ll be disappointed if I return home empty handed.
There are many ways to look at this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships from a business and sporting standpoint, and not all examinations are going to lead to the same destination.
The most important question is whether or not the 2008 Breeders’ Cup was a success or failure. Was the decision to hold the Cup at a racetrack with a synthetic surface a wise move? Has the expansion of the world championships from eight races in one day to 14 races in two days helped or diluted the event?
How is success or failure of the Breeders’ Cup measured? Is it attendance, pari-mutuel handle, revenue, TV ratings, racing results, international participation?
It’s difficult to measure some of these factors because the circumstances of the Breeders’ Cup have changed so much between 2008 and previous years, rendering it an apples to oranges comparison. Making those comparisons even more challenging are the current economic conditions that have hit all levels of society this year, from Wall Street bankers to blue-collar workers. Virtually every industry is feeling a severe impact.
Putting that aside, last year’s Breeders’ Cup at Monmouth Park was the first time the event was stretched over two days, and handle totaled just over $147 million ($31.5 on the Friday program and $115.7 on Saturday) despite poor weather and messy track conditions (a near monsoon came through New Jersey during Friday’s program and the track was very sloppy on Saturday). This year’s two-day handle increased by only 5.5%, to $155.5 million ($47.9 million on Friday, $107.6 million on Saturday), despite perfect weather and the addition of three new Breeders’ Cup races. Comparisons are for the whole cards, including non-Breeders’ Cup races run at Monmouth Park last year and Santa Anita this year.
Steve Crist’s weekend blog at DRF.com (Friday, Saturday), which detailed the race-by-race betting figures for the last three years of the Breeders’ Cup, shows that handle dropped sharply on the races moved from the Saturday card in 2007 to Friday (Filly & Mare Turf, Juvenile Fillies, Ladies’ Classic) this year. That makes perfect sense, since there were fewer people betting Friday’s program this year than there were betting Saturday’s program last year. But there were five Breeders’ Cup races on Friday this year, when the all of the filly and mare races were packaged as "Filly Friday" or "Ladies Day," compared with three in 2007, leading to the increase in Friday-to-Friday comparisons.
Handle dropped virtually across the board on Saturday’s races this year, with the day’s total handle declining by 7%, from $115.7 million in 2007 to $107.6 million in 2008. It was the lowest handle on a Saturday Breeders’ Cup since 1999, when $100.3 million was bet on the races from Gulfstream Park.
Santa Anita’s on-track handle of $11.8 million was down almost 10% from the $12.7 million wagered on-track at Monmouth Park in 2007 and a steep decline of 33% from the 2006 Saturday Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs, when $18.3 million was bet on-track during the one-day event.
Saturday’s on-track business was the lowest for a Breeders’ Cup since 1997, when $11.2 million was wagered at Hollywood Park. The last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita, in 2003, one-day on-track handle totaled $16.3 million. This year’s two-day on-track handle was $18.7 million.
The economic climate has not been good for racing in 2008. Most major race meetings have experienced double-digit declines in business. For the Breeders’ Cup to increase handle from 2007 is an accomplishment, though not a major one when considering both the additional races and superior weather conditions.
It is difficult to say there has not been a dilution of the event based on the early evidence. Do the positive benefits outweigh any negatives? I think it’s too early to tell.
Attendance was up this year from 2007, but that should have been a no-brainer following the poor weather at Monmouth Park. Breeders’ Cup officials got greedy with ticket prices and, to their credit, have admitted as much. The increase in prices was outrageous, especially for the Friday program, and it is hoped they will be scaled back considerably next year.
TV ratings have not yet been reported, but it’s hard to imagine they will be up from 2007.
The racing was spectacular on both days – and safe. More than a few people commented at the conclusion of the Breeders’ Cup that no one died or suffered any serious injuries, a sad commentary on the bumpy road the sport has been traveling in recent years. The Pro-Ride synthetic track was fast and safe, though it appeared to compromise some horses who had only raced on conventional dirt tracks and help those horses with synthetic track or turf experience.
Synthetic surfaces have increased the difficulty of handicapping, and running the traditional Breeders’ Cup dirt races on the Pro-Ride track may have led some big players to downsize their bets. The Classic, according to Crist’s figures, handled $24.3 million in bets this year, down from $30.1 million at Monmouth Park last year and $37.7 million at Churchill Downs in 2006.
The dominance of European horses was widely embraced by Breeders’ Cup officials, including president Greg Avioli, who sees international participation as the last, best hope for further growth in pari-mutuel handle. The success of Raven’s Pass and four other European-based winners on Saturday’s program will ensure enthusiastic participation from European horsemen when the races return to Santa Anita in 2009, but there is no guarantee that’s going to mean greater interest among horseplayers outside of North America. There is a conceivable backlash among American breeders who provide the financial foundation of the Breeders’ Cup program through foal and stallion nominations. Some of them view this as an American event, and they would be happier if the considerable purse money stayed in this country. On the other hand, those breeders who want to reach an international audience with their sale yearlings may cheer the success of European-based runners.
The Breeders’ Cup will conduct a post-mortem on the event to determine what worked and what didn’t. Many have said the Oak Tree Racing Association and Santa Anita did a terrific job from a logistical standpoint, and there may not be a more telegenic racing facility in America in late October than the "Great Race Place." There were many people critical of the decision to hold the event at Santa Anita in consecutive years, but those critics surely are fewer in number following this year’s Breeders’ Cup
Provided that no major changes are made in the format, holding the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita next year will be more of an apples to apples comparison, allowing Cup officials to assess whether or not the expansion from one day to two was a sound decision.
By Ray PaulickTop to bottom, this may not be the most talented group of Breeders’ Cup horses that’s ever been assembled, but it’s the biggest handicapping challenge I can ever recall, especially considering new races like the Marathon, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile and Juvenile Turf.
My handicapping philosophy is to beat the favorite whenever possible, since the average percentage of winning favorites is around 33%. You might discern from the following selections that I think the Europeans are going to have a big day on Saturday. The factors leading me to believe that will be true are 1) the synthetic surface that some Europeans train on; 2) the tighter medication rules that specifically ban anabolic steroids for the first time; 3) the quality of European horses being sent to this year’s event.
Here’s my advance prognostication on the day’s nine championship races. Good luck and safe racing to all.
Special note: please be sure to check back in to the Paulick Report, beginning around 3 p.m. Eastern, for my live blog of Filly Friday. I’ll also be live blogging Saturday’s nine races, beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern.
Marathon
This looks like a two-horse race between European runner Sixties Icon and Zappa (whose namesake, the late rocker Frank Zappa, was the founder of the Mothers of Invention and was a real-life sixties icon). That works for me, but it’s an all chalk exacta. I give the edge to Sixties Icon, in part because of jockey Frankie Dettori’s experience edge at mile and a half races. Zappa is sharp and may try to steal the race under Garrett Gomez. Muhannak has plenty of synthetic track experience in Europe and likes the distance. Cedar Mountain will be closing late.
Selections: 1-Sixties Icon 2-Zappa 3-Muhannak 4- Cedar Mountain
Turf Sprint One of the great things about the Breeders’ Cup is finding a horse you absolutely love and then discovering that it’s a longshot. That’s the case with Only Answer, a French-based filly in the care of the legendary horseman Andre Fabre, who is in top echelon of Breeders’ Cup trainers. I think she has an excellent chance to beat the boys in this spot, and Santa Anita’s ace morning line maker Jeff Tufts has her pegged at 20-1 on the morning line. Jockey Olivier Peslier, in my opinion, is as good a big-race rider as there is in the world, and he knows this filly well. The downhill turf course is a tricky one for horse and rider, with the run across the main track causing difficulty for some. It’s one of the best “horses for the course” plays in racing, which makes local runners California Flag and Get Funky formidable challengers in here. Fleeting Spirit has a lot of class, as does Diabolical, either of whom are good enough on their best days to win. I’m going for the price play.
Dirt Mile
The status of Mast Track is in doubt as I write this, and I would be very surprised if trainer and owner Robert Frankel runs him on Saturday. If he is scratched, that’s going to make things a lot easier for Well Armed, a Tiznow gelding who seems to have found a perfect spot here, though I’d prefer him to have drawn more of an inside post position. The Eoin Harty runner can go to the lead or rate, depending on the circumstances, and the mile distance suits him perfectly. Surf Cat should be more effective at this distance, too, after running dull races in his last two starts. Bruce Headley has tightened the veteran up with some quick works. No one seems to have more confidence in his horse than Wayne Catalano, and there’s a lot to like about Lewis Michael, who grabs the advantageous rail post. Pyro’s a tough one to assess in here. His only synthetic track try at Keeneland was a disaster, but all synthetic tracks aren’t the same.
Selections: 1-Well Armed 2-Surf Cat 3-Lewis Michael 4-Pyro
Turf Mile
Irish-bred filly Goldikova has made few mistakes in her eight-race career for French trainer Freddie Head, who has enough confidence to run her against colts here at her best distance. She’s drawn perfectly in the four post and has big-race rider Olivier Peslier in the saddle. It’s not the strongest Mile field we’ve seen. Shakis is a game old-timer who always finishes with a rush. If Alan Garcia can avoid traffic problems from the rail, he won’t be far away at the finish. Kip Deville ran a puzzler last time out in Canada on a yielding track for Rick Dutrow. I’d throw that race out as he goes for a defense of his crown. U S Ranger doesn’t win very many but usually gets up for a share of the money and has been facing tough company all year. Whatsthescript got an impossible post position on the outside.
Selections: 1-Goldikova 2-Shakis 3-Kip Deville 4-U S Ranger
Juvenile
Post positions really come into play here, with the two horses I like the most, Bushranger and Midshipman, drawn way outside, a distinct disadvantage in the relatively short run to the first turn. Munnings, who has chased juvenile division leader Vineyard Haven (not entered in the Breeders’ Cup by trainer Robert Frankel) in his last two starts, draws the much friendlier rail post for his first try around two turns. That’s enough to give him the edge in this spot for trainer Todd Pletcher, especially in a race without much early speed. The son of Speightstown should get the best trip under John Velazquez. Bushranger may be the best horse and he’ll have to be overcome his 11 post. Street Hero has been steady since breaking his maiden in June and remains in top form for Myung Kwon Cho.
Juvenile Turf Westphalia looks to me like the obvious choice here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is bet down to near favoritism from his 5-1 morning line. He’s in top form and has had a bit of a rest since his last win at Doncaster in mid-September. Coronet of a Baron obviously has is precocious and talented, and the shift from synthetic to turf by trainer Eoin Harty is an interesting move. Darley already has Midshipman going in the Juvenile and this gives them a good chance to sweep the two races. Of course, arch-rival Coolmore has Bushranger in the Juvenile and Westphalia in here, giving them a strong hand as well. The Darley-Coolmore rivalry will be interesting to follow throughout the two days. Bittel Road is unbeaten on turf and is the morning line choice, but he hasn’t seen this kind of competition yet. Donativum is in the more than capable hands of trainer John Gosden, who knows how to have a horse at peak form when it matters most.
Selections: 1-Westphalia 2-Coronet of a Baron 3-Bittel Road 4-Donativum
Sprint Smallest number of runners in this race since 1986, obviously a byproduct of two new races: the Filly and Mare Sprint and Dirt Mile. I doubt that defending champ Midnight Lute scared anyone away based on his only start of the year, a dismal 10th in the Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. He’s worked sensationally for Bob Baffert since then, but it’s hard to see him up sharp enough to beat the likes of Street Boss or In Summation. I give the clear nod here to the California horses, led by the Bruce Headley-trained Street Boss. My intuition tells me Bruce Headley didn’t have the son of Street Cry cranked to the max for the Ancient Title when second to Cost of Freedom, and recent works suggest he’s ready to roll here. In Summation is a thorough professional who can be counted on to run his race. Midnight Lute will be running late. Fatal Bullet has the best chance of upsetting the local horses’ applecart.
Selections: 1-Street Boss 2- In Summation 3-Midnight Lute 4-Fatal Bullet
Turf
While Europe’s bigshots were locking horns in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 5, Mike de Kock was bringing the top-class Eagle Mountain back to the races from a fractured pelvis and year layoff at Newmarket. The Rock of Gibraltor colt won the comeback, a Group 3 race at Newmarket, and some big money subsequently came in on the horse with a British bookmaker to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The former Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien runner looked sharp in a morning spin at Santa Anita is primed for a big effort. Soldier of Fortune comes off a hard-fought defeat for O’Brien in the Arc. That was just his third race of the year and he might have another good one in him. Winchester turned in a monstrous performance at Arlington Park to win the Secretariat for Dermot Weld, far surpassing his European form. This is a big step up, but he showed a fondness for American style racing in that effort. Conduit completes my all- European superfecta. American turf horses appear weak again this year, but let’s not forget how English Channel romped in the 2007 Turf over supposedly superior Europeans.
Selections: 1-Eagle Mountain 2-Soldier of Fortune 3-Winchester 4-Conduit
Classic
By the time the finale rolls around, we should have a pretty good idea how European turf horses have adapted to Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride surface. I don’t have the benefit of knowing that right now, so I can only speculate how Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass will take to the track. But I guess we can say the same thing about Curlin, who has trained well on the track but never raced on a synthetic strip. Curlin may be the best horse we’ve seen in the last 10 years, in terms of his accomplishments if not his brilliance. But based on his last two victories over relatively weak competition, I think he’s beatable here. But who will beat him? Go Between, a synthetic track specialist who’s logged thousands of miles this year going from coast to coast? Casino Drive, the unbeaten but lightly raced, Japanese-trained sibling to two previous Belmont Stakes winners? Colonel John, the best 3-year-old in training following the retirement of Big Brown? The Aidan O’Brien duo of Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator, who have combined for nine Group 1 victories on European turf this year? All have a realistic chance, but I’m taking the John Gosden-trained Raven’s Pass for the upset under Frankie Dettori. The Elusive Quality 3-year-old colt hasn’t gone beyond a mile, but Gosden knows from his previous experience in California that most top-class Europeans can stretch their ability out in the U.S. Raven’s Pass has had a month off since defeating Henrythenavigator in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and is in absolute top form. Curlin will run hard as always, but he’s had a long year for trainer Steve Asmussen. Go Between is a steady performer for Mott, who’s handled him intelligently all year. Colonel John may be the best 3-year-old, but the jury is still out on how good this year’s sophomore crop really is.
Selections: 1-Raven’s Pass 2-Curlin 3-Go Between 4-Colonel John
Under normal circumstances, handle on the 2008 Breeders’ Cup World Championships would blow past all previous betting records. But the economic crisis gripping the United States and many other countries is anything but normal.
This year’s World Championships take place over two days at Santa Anita Park Oct. 24-25 and includes 14 Breeders’ Cup races, up from the 11 held at Monmouth Park in 2007 when the event was first expanded to two days. Last year’s two-day handle was a Breeders’ Cup record $147 million ($31.5 million on the Friday card and $115.7 million on Saturday), but the total was below expectations by at least 10% because of the extremely wet weather conditions. The previous all-sources wagering record was set in 2006 when $140.3 million was wagered on eight Breeders’ Cup races on a single day at Churchill Downs.
Ken Kirchner, the president of FalKirk International and the longtime wagering consultant to the Breeders’ Cup, wouldn’t make any predictions about this year’s handle. “It’s hard to say where the economy is going to be in 10 days,” Kirchner told the Paulick Report. “Everybody has been down between 10% and 20% in wagering all summer and fall. Things can change quickly, but certainly the trend isn’t good.”
Kirchner hopes some fans have been stockpiling a bankroll for the big event. “It’s not a positive situation,” he said, “but we’re going to have very strong and full fields and some people may just be waiting for this as opposed to betting the run-of-the-mill races.”
Holding the Breeders’ Cup’s traditional dirt races on a synthetic surface doesn’t bother Kirchner. “The new (Pro-Ride) track seems to be playing fair,” he said. “If the horses show up, the bettors will follow.
Kirchner did say scheduling the Breeders’ Cup on the last weekend of the month is a disadvantage because of consumer spending habits. “Having it at the beginning of the month (when Social Security and other fixed income checks arrive) makes it 3% to 5% stronger,” he said.
The Breeders’ Cup had the first $100-million wagering day in North American racing history Nov. 6, 1999, at Gulfstream Park. That was the year the Filly & Mare Turf was added, making it an eight-race championship.
By comparison, Kentucky Derby day betting topped $100 million for the first time in 2000, and it’s grown significantly since. Churchill Downs now holds the North American record of $175 million established on the 2006 Kentucky Derby program. Add wagering from Friday’s Kentucky Oaks program ($33 million in 2006), and the total tops $208 million.
It’s clear the Breeders’ Cup braintrust is trying to emulate the success of the Friday Oaks/Saturday Derby format at Churchill Downs by bundling all of the filly and mare races on this year’s Friday program (and by requiring fans to purchase seats for both days as Churchill Downs has done with the Oaks and Derby). The Breeders’ Cup doesn’t have the cachet of the Kentucky Derby (or the Oaks for that matter), though that doesn’t mean the new format will not work.
With the additional Breeders’ Cup races, better weather and a more traditional big race venue (Santa Anita vs. Monmouth Park), handle will increase this year. My prediction is for $175 million in wagers over the two championship days. Without all the economic uncertainty, $200 million would seem realistic.
SPEAKING OF BETTING, REMEMBER THAT JUNE 28 RACE AT PHILADELPHIA PARK when wagers were allowed at some Florida simulcast sites after the race had been run? The Thoroughbred Racing Protective Bureau issued a report and sent it to the tracks involved – Philadelphia Park and Tampa Bay Downs – but according to Peter Berube, Tampa Bay’s vice president and general manager, he still doesn’t understand exactly how the Philly Park past-post bets occurred.
“I have the report,” Berube told the Paulick Report last week. “It’s highly technical but draws no conclusions and places no blame on anybody. Apparently it was a sequence of events that took place between the tote companies.”
Scientific Games (formerly Autotote), which handles wagers for Philadelphia Park, was experiencing technical problems with its system that day at races from Philly and Delaware Park. Tampa Bay Downs and 11 other North Florida wagering sites (dog tracks and jai-alai frontons) use AmTote. A communications breakdown between the systems failed to send a stop-bet signal to AmTote.
Joe Wilson, chief operating officer of Philadelphia Park, did not return phone calls seeking a comment.
According to Berube, the past-post wagering was limited to his track, with most of the past-post bets placed by one customer, who is known as a big bettor at Tampa Bay. “What’s in the report would lead me to believe that there was no abnormal spike in bets overall,” Berube said. “We were the 14th ranked site in terms of total bets (on the fourth race, the race in question), but first in cashes. We were the only site that had a negative settlement (with more winnings that money wagered).”
Berube said he interviewed the horseplayer who allegedly made the past-post wagers but allowed him to collect on his winning bets. “We brought people in and spoke with them but after Philadelphia Park priced the race I couldn’t tell them to give us the money back.
“I’ve been here 15 years and have never experienced anything like this before,” said Berube, whose father, Paul Berube, is the former head of the TRPB.
The following opinion piece on the Breeders’ Cup and the suggestion fans consider skipping the Friday “Ladies Day” program and that Jess Jackson run Curlin in the Breeders’ Cup Turf was submitted to the Paulick Report by a longtime California racing fan and an omnipresent online contributor who goes by the pseudonym Indulto. His guest editorials and comments have appeared on numerous forums and blogs, including journalist Paul Moran’s Web site.
Indulto shares the frustration of many racing fans regarding the need to maintain multiple advance deposit wagering accounts (ADWs), and he is not a fan of what he calls the “misguided mass conversion to synthetic surfaces” mandated by the California Horse Racing Board.
The views of the writer do not necessarily represent those of the Paulick Report.
By Indulto
The decision to conduct Breeders’ Cup races formerly run on dirt over Santa Anita’s supposedly safer synthetic surface has created a dilemma for some owners of dirt-proven division leaders. Should they accept the risk of experimenting with their equine stars’ ability to handle this type of racetrack when it’s clear that few horses have achieved success on both? Or should they risk losing an Eclipse Award to a BC divisional event winner with an arguably lesser resume?Jess Jackson initially claimed to be unaffected by such concerns, and repeatedly dismissed the possibility that Curlin would contest a synthetic Classic. Yet after months of casting doubt that the BC’s decision was appropriate, “America’s richest racehorse” is now stabled at the scene; scheduled to test his proclivity for Pro-ride prior to his widely-anticipated entry in the HOTY sweepstakes.
Some. including Ray Paulick in his “Well played Mr. Jackson, well played,” are praising Jackson as a marketing genius who has spurred discussion and created public demand for this once unlikely, but apparently inevitable matchup of racing stars on a surface neither has competed on. Others feel his machinations have stifled enthusiasm and lowered expectations for the event by undermining its status. Either way, with a Hitchcock-like mastery of suspense, Jackson has extended his own appearance in the spotlight. It remains to be seen whether he will be illuminated as a showman, a sportsman or something else.
In a press conference four days before Curlin’s Jockey Club Gold Cup victory, Jackson’s reluctance didn’t appear diminished:
“One race doesn’t determine a champion. You guys are sold on what the Breeders’ Cup has been saying about what the Classic does worldwide for the reputation of a horse. But you have to look at the overall performance of a horse over the year. … But the one race, the Breeders’ Cup, should not a champion determine.
“They used the Gold Cup as a prep for the Breeders’ Cup last year. This year is pretty tight and had they not changed the surface, we’d have been happy to show up to the Breeders’ Cup. But they only had less than four weeks to get prepared this time. So it’s not an entirely novel thing to go to the Breeders’ Cup for us, we’ve been there and done that. … And the Clark (at Churchill Downs in November) might be a great way to finish the season for both Big Brown and Curlin.
“The problem (with running ‘where the public appetite and interest in the sport is’) is, it’s an increase in the sport once a year. What we need is a league that shows an interest in the sport year round.”
One might now wonder whether Jackson’s testimony at the Congressional hearings advocating industry oversight represented convictions more strongly held, and whether there was any substance to his conjecture that he might run Curlin as a 5-year-old under certain circumstance that might benefit the sport.
Why am I holding Jackson’s feet to the fire? Because I agree with him that the racing industry desperately needs oversight by a central governing authority. While I don’t fancy him a friend of the horseplayer, I respect his having been instrumental in achieving reform regarding the sale of Thoroughbreds. His willingness to race Curlin as a 4-year-old — and to initially resist the BC decision to switch surfaces — suggested he was a man of principle willing to sacrifice the dollar to revitalize the sport.
An effective industry governing board will require persons of demonstrated integrity.
The BC as originally implemented was an inspiration. When the “Showcase of Champions” became the crowner of champions based on a single performance against competitors they had never previously faced– under conditions which may have compromised the chances of some contestants — it lost its luster. Last year’s farce known as BC Friday has become this year’s folly labeled Filly Friday, which has fueled unprecedented negative fan reaction including a boycott-threatening on-line petition.
Handle has declined from its peak in 2003 and attendance continues to defy promotion. Yet industry leadership refuses to listen to its customers who aren’t professional players. Racing fans have always wanted to see the best face the best as often as possible, to confirm champions who have repeatedly demonstrated their superiority over their closest competition, and to be able to compare championship performances between generations of both horses and fans.
Today, they crave full, competitive, sound fields to bet on without chemically enhanced performances. They seek a level playing field on which to compete in the pari-mutuel pools for as long as their skills permit and not be sent to the sidelines prematurely by unconscionably high takeout from which only whales get relief. They long to be able to bet on-line on any race at any track through any ADW and watch the race live no matter how remote their location or what infirmities prevent them from being in attendance.
But nothing will change if fans keep opening their wallets to play while owners, tracks and ADWs ignore their existence, much less their importance. The only thing current industry leadership including the BC understands is lack of receipts. The first step in taking corrective action is to not expose one’s BC bankroll until Saturday; saving time, energy, and money while sending a message that needs to be heard.
We’re hearing a lot recently about what a good thing it is to be a maverick. Jackson seemed worthy of that title as a supporter, ironically, of tradition; and restoring the BC’s more appropriate role in championship racing. By running in the Turf instead of the Classic, Curlin’s master would not only maintain his personal credibility, but would also assume a leadership role in righting racing’s course.
Finishing second in his lone turf start — sandwiched between two previous BC Turf winners — Curlin’s defeat in the Man o’ War appeared to be more a function of riders than horses. Curlin could redeem himself against the returning Red Rocks and add to his Horse of the Year resume in the process. The best part would be that Curlin’s fans would be able to bet him with the confidence they would be getting a competitive as well as sporting effort from both horse and owner.
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Shares in Magna Entertainment (MECA), the debt-ridden racetrack operating company controlled by Frank Stronach, plunged by 56% in Tuesday’s trading on the NASDAQ exchange. Closing at $1.75 per share (down from $4.00) under extremely heavy trading (more than 30 times higher than the daily average), MECA was NASDAQ’s biggest percentage loser on a day when the Dow and NASDAQ each gained between 5%-6%.
MECA stock has plummeted by 91% in the last 52 weeks, and its market capitalization has shriveled to less than $10 million.
Magna Entertainment has listed debt of $571 million. The company recently announced 30-day extensions on a loan maturity date from a Canadian bank and an $80-million bridge loan from its affiliated real estate company, MI Developments, that will be due Oct. 15 and Oct. 31, respectively, along with a $100-million payment due MI Developments Oct. 31. Major shareholders in MI Developments have fought extensions of the bridge loan and repayment. On Monday, John Barnett resigned from the board of MI Developments. The company’s CEO, John Simonetti, stepped down in August and was replaced by Dennis Mills, a longtime Stronach ally.
The current bank and credit crisis only heightens the gravity of Magna’s poor financial health.
Magna Entertainment operates, among other tracks, Santa Anita Park in Southern California, the site of the 2008 and ’09 Breeders’ Cup world championships. The Oak Tree Racing Association, a separate non-profit entity that leases the Santa Anita racetrack from Magna, is the organization with which Breeders’ Cup has contracted to host the championships. Any financial failings or potential bankruptcy by Magna Entertainment will not affect the Breeders’ Cup, according to Greg Avioli, president and CEO of Breeders’ Cup Ltd.
“Because of Oak Tree’s contractual structure, they are fully protected from any possible Magna bankruptcy in terms of their ability to operate the meet in their standard fashion,” Avioli said. “(Oak Tree Racing Association) is a separate legal entity. They have a lease on the facility, and that lease would be maintained.”
Avioli did say that the Breeders’ Cup developed contingency plans to move the championships to Hollywood Park, but not because of Magna’s financial situation. “We had contingencies in place in the event that there might be problems with the new track,” he said, in reference to the new Pro-Ride synthetic surface recently installed at Santa Anita. According to published reports, horsemen and jockeys generally seem satisfied that the new surface is safe and formful after one week of racing during the Oak Tree meeting.
The pending due dates on loans are not the only question marks concerning Magna Entertainment. A California judge ruled this week that a shopping mall development planned for a section of Santa Anita’s parking lot cannot go forward. In Maryland, where Magna owns Laurel and Pimlico racetracks, a referendum is coming up in November on slot machines.
“The stock only trades on option values,” one market analyst observed, “and the option value is declining because the potential options for the company are quickly disappearing.”
Turns out that wasn’t an illusion earlier this year when Colonel John seemed to catch another gear just as the wire was approaching in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby. The rest of the field looked to be in deep water and the muscular bay son of Tiznow was skipping along on the surface as if he had just entered the fray. His margin of victory that day was only a half-length, but it was the way he did it that was so impressive.
That’s why I thought the mile and a quarter of the Kentucky Derby would be right up Colonel John’s alley. There was some skepticism because it didn’t appear to be a very strong group of 3-year-olds in California prepping for the Classics, and the horse he caught in the final sixteenth of a mile, Bob Black Jack, was a stretching-out sprinter. Nevertheless, I thought Colonel John had what it took to become the 134th winner of the Run for the Roses.
Big Brown ran Colonel John and everyone else off the track that first Saturday in May. It was no contest, really, especially when you consider how much ground Big Brown lost. Colonel John had a nightmare trip, getting virtually eliminated right after the start, when he was pinched back and steadied, then raced into a wall of flying dirt down the stretch the first time. Midway down the backstretch, Colonel John put in a strong run from 16th in the 20-horse field to get as close sixth, but he had nothing left for the final quarter mile.
The team of WinStar Farm and trainer Eoin Harty went back to the drawing board after Colonel John’s disappointing sixth-place result in Kentucky, bringing him back two months later in the Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park (he finished a close third in a four-horse field) but circling Aug. 23 on the calendar as THE day to seek redemption in the 139th running of the Travers. For despite winning four of his first six races, being a Grade 1 winner, and going into the Kentucky Derby as the second betting choice, Colonel John was still carrying that dreaded new moniker: Synthetic Horse. He had yet to win on a racetrack made of real dirt.
Outside of Churchill Downs, no dirt is more hallowed than that which covers the main track oval at Saratoga racetrack in upstate New York. But Harty kept Colonel John in California almost up to the last minute, working him like clockwork every six or seven days on Del Mar’s Polytrack. Garrett Gomez, racing’s current “go to” big race jockey, would travel east for the mount after replacing Corey Nakatani in the Swaps following the disastrous Kentucky Derby run.
In the crowded, 12-horse Travers field, Gomez didn’t get the smoothest of trips, either. Belmont Stakes winner Da’ Tara led for the first mile of the mile and a quarter “Midsummer Derby,” with Gomez and Colonel tracking him all the way. At the top of the stretch, Colonel John was ready to take off, but Gomez was in tight and had to angle out sharply to avoid clipping the heels of Tale of Ekati to his inside and Da’ Tara, who was directly in front of him. Once clear, Colonel John took dead aim at Da’ Tara and put that stubborn rival away. But quickly joining the fray after rallying around horses on the turn for home was Mambo in Seattle, a late-developing Kingmambo colt who ran on Derby day at Churchill Downs, finishing second in an entry-level allowance race. He breezed through his allowance conditions after that and won a restricted stakes at Saratoga in late July, his first-added money effort. Trainer Neil Howard, who is always dangerous with a loaded gun, had Mambo in Seattle ready for the race of his life, and the colt did everything but win the Travers.
In fact, jockey Robbie Albarado thought he’d won the race, waving his whip in celebration at the wire, and ESPN commentators took the bait, interviewing him as the apparent winner as he jogged back to have his picture taken. But the bob of the head went to Colonel John, whose margin of victory could be measured in millimeters.
The Travers is the second most coveted race for a 3-year-old colt after the Kentucky Derby – at least among breeders. The victory, though the margin could not have been narrower, was huge for the stallion potential of Colonel John, who threw the synthetic monkey off his powerful shoulders. The result also sets up the potential for a most interesting Breeders’ Cup Classic on Santa Anita’s new Pro-Ride synthetic surface, if (and it’s a big if) Big Brown shows up. Right now, the connections of Big Brown say that’s where they are heading after the son of Boundary preps in a specially created turf race at Monmouth Park next month.
As for Mambo in Seattle, he is a colt of great talent who was unlucky to lose. He’ll have his chance at Grade 1 glory down the road, and will be to a force later this year and in 2009 for co-owners Will Farish and Mrs. William Kilroy. His pedigree (Kingmambo out of Weekend in Seattle, by Seattle Slew) assures that he will have every opportunity at stud when his racing days are over.
The installation of the new Pro-Ride synthetic surface that began at Santa Anita Park in mid-July is "ahead of schedule," according to Ron Charles, the track’s president and chief operating officer of Magna Entertainment. Santa Anita is hosting the 2008 and 2009 Breeders’ Cup world championships during the Oak Tree Racing Association meeting that opens Sept. 24. The two-day Breeders’ Cup is schedule Oct. 24-25.
"Right now it all looks good," Charles told the Paulick Report. "We did run into areas where the drainage system had problems; sand had gotten down in there, but those sections have been fixed. The entire drainage system was replaced before, but a lot of it has been replaced again because of the damage."
Pro-Ride was chosen by Santa Anita officials, Charles said, after they took a long look at synthetic surface and conventional dirt options. "I truly believe this was the right choice," Charles said. The previous synthetic surface, Cushion Track, developed serious drainage problems last winter that led to the cancellation of 11 racing days. Santa Anita has filed suit against the manufacturers of Cushion Track, which is also in place at Hollywood Park. The California Horse Racing Board mandates that all major Thoroughbred tracks in the state have synthetic surfaces.
Ian Pearse of Pro-Ride was brought in to help repair Santa Anita’s Cushion Track problems, developing a hybrid of Cushion Track and Pro-Ride that allowed Santa Anita to complete its meeting without further cancellations. Following the completion of the meeting, Santa Anita reviewed its options and in June announced it was going with Pro-Ride, a company based in Australia.
A small percentage of the Cushion Track surface will remain, Charles admitted. "Some of the original sand and fiber and rubber will still be in there, but it all will be mixed with the binder and new fiber," Charles said. "It will be 95% Pro-Ride. We’ve been screening the material and have removed some rocks, a lot of the rubber, and have reduced whatever odor there was."
Charles said the timetable calls for the installation to be completed a week before horses return to Santa Anita from Del Mar, which closes its meeting Sept. 3. The surface will be flooded twice to test its drainage efficiency - once before the Pro-Ride material is added to the drainage system and rock base and once after the material is added. "We’ll test it extensively," Charles said. "We want it to be 100% right before we let 1,500 horses on there for training."
Del Mar racetrack on opening day is a little like that restaurant Yogi Berra used to talk about: "No one goes there anymore; it’s too crowded," he has often been quoted as saying.
There were 43,459 on-hand Wednesday, the largest opening in the track’s history and the second-largest crowd ever behind the 44,181 who turned out for the 1996 Pacific Classic when Cigar was upset by Dare And Go.
Many of the daily regulars at the track where the turf meets the surf stay home on opening day to avoid the gridlock that begins on the city streets and extends to the admission gates and throughout the facility.
Some of the attendees might have been aware there was horse racing going on throughout the day, but as always more people were at the Del Mar opening to see and be seen rather than watch Thoroughbreds racing. Some also might have noticed that the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club doubled the price of clubhouse admission just for opening day from $10 to $20, but that had no apparent effect on attendance. Neither did the $4.75 per gallon gas prices or the foreclosure crisis that has hit California particularly hard.
The decision to raise opening day prices was made before some of the problems in the economy surfaced, said Joe Harper, the longtime president of Del Mar. "As someone who takes nine kids to Sea World, coming to Del Mar is still a pretty good deal," Harper said.
The track’s marketing team said past surveys indicated to them that a majority of the opening day fans weren’t aware of admission prices. Track regulars who are in the Diamond Club rewards program pay just $3 for grandstand admission and $6 for the clubhouse.
This was the second year for the synthetic Polytrack surface, and Del Mar has changed its maintenance procedures to speed up the track in the afternoons. There were numerous complaints by horsemen in 2007 that the surface became too slow in the afternoon heat, especially compared to its condition during morning training hours. The temperature of the surface is now being monitored throughout the day, and water is added to cool it down whenever necessary. That process began shortly after training hours on Wednesday.
The result was a much faster track, with several track records set throughout the day.
No opening day would be complete without the "One and Only Truly Fabulous Hats Contest," which has become a popular tradition at the track. Some of the hats are fashionable and others are outrageous and ridiculous. Some of them come with message. One of the day’s winners, in the "best flowers" division, was Crystal Chessher, whose pink floral hat was a tribute to the Susan B. Komen Race for the Cure breast cancer awareness charity. Dozens of ribbons attached to the flying saucer-sized hat had the names of breast cancer patients who were an inspiration for Chessher.
On a far lighter note, one of the finalists in the "funniest or most outrageous" category wore a Batman costume topped off by a bizarre horse’s head hat. He was accompanied by someone dressed as the Joker. Batman was chased out of the winner’s circle area by track officials before the post parade for the day’s seventh race for fear he might scare the horses.
It’s a good thing there weren’t any young children around.
In my country, Mr. Funaki, old men are asleep by midnight.
which have plagued cycling and some other sports, are being used in racing. Stewart nodded to the affirmative. "How big a problem is EPO?" Sinclair asked. "I’d say it’s widepread," Stewart said. That sent many Asian Racing Federation delegates straight to the bar for a stiff one.
It wasn’t that easy, though. To give rebates, the HKJC had to cut a deal with government that gave them the flexibility to offer innovative programs like rebates. The agreement worked both ways, with the HKJC guaranteeing HK$8 billion in annual revenue to the government, more than they’d gotten the previous year. The HKJC wanted to expand the number of race days from 78 a year and the number of commingled simulcasts from 10. The government didn’t budge on those requests.
Some Japanese racing insiders have said he has sold most of his horses and others have suggested the global credit crunch may have dealt him a severe blow. Last time I saw him was in the paddock of the Tokyo Race Course at the Japan Cup a couple of year ago, where he was nattily dressed as usual. Sekiguchi has had some ups and downs in his racing and business career (famously failing to pay Keeneland on some yearling purchases prior to buying FuPeg for $4 million, and later getting fired by the company he started), and he always seems to land on his feet.
Raji Jayaraju then sang the praises of the synthetic surface installed at the Singapore Turf Club track where he is senior manager. Singapore’s new track has been very useful because of the heavy rain they get in Singapore that often leaves the turf course extremely soggy. Jockeys and trainers said in a video that the synthetic track was terrific (under threat of a caning?)..jpg)
idiosyncrasies of the people of Japan, this nation of talking elevators, American fast-food, on-time trains and silly television commercials. Its natives honor Japanese laws, yet many of them complain privately about the nature of their traditions.
Among those I ran into at the track was Michael Dickinson and his partner, Joan Wakefield, who are here as exhibitors for Tapeta Footings, the synthetic surface developed by Dickinson that has been used so successfully at, among other places, Golden Gate Fields, Presque Isle Downs and the Fair Hill Training Center in the U.S., and as a training track in Dubai. Dickinson, of course, is hoping to find new clients among the Asian Racing Federation’s membership.
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In the bowels of the grandstand, there is a maze of tunnels for horses to use as they leave the paddock, go onto one of the three tracks, or return to the stable area. We took one tunnel up to the winner’s circle, where Dickinson gazed wistfully out onto the main turf course and dirt track, desperately wanting to walk the courses to get a feel for them. The former trainer is a man long obsessed with the conditions and safety of racing surfaces, and his new calling as a proponent of synthetic tracks comes to him naturally..jpg)
