Archive for the ‘Ray Paulick’ Category
Friday, May 1st, 2009
By Ray Paulick
(Who do you like in this year’s Kentucky Derby? Please use the comment section below to give us your picks and analysis of the race.)
It’s anybody’s guess how wet the Churchill Downs racing surface is going to be on Saturday for the 135 th running of the Kentucky Derby, although Butch Lehr has faced this challenge many times in the past and has managed to almost always make the best of it, sealing the track overnight to prevent too much moisture from getting in and then working it throughout the day. The end result could make one of the most formidable handicapping challenges of the year that much tougher because heavy overnight rains are expected and we really don’t know how most of the 20 entrants in the race will perform on a sloppy, muddy, or drying-out racetrack. Of all the horses in the line-up, only Friesan Fire has really proven himself on a sloppy racetrack, romping to a 7 ¼-length victory in the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans.
I’ll be at Churchill Downs in Louisville Saturday, but my heart will be in Florida, where one of the Paulick Report’s most loyal readers will be celebrating his 91st birthday on Derby Day. That would be my father, Al Paulick, and if I could be anywhere other than Churchill Downs it would be with him, celebrating with a homemade birthday cake made by my mother and enjoying the Derby day telecasts on ESPN and NBC with both of them. I hope they’ll save me a piece of cake.
I’ve been a believer in Pioneerof the Nile throughout the spring, putting him on top in my Paulick Derby Index in eight of the nine weeks since we launched the AP-style poll in February. The lone exception was the week after the Florida Derby, when I moved Quality Road into the top spot. A week later, after Pioneerof the Nile won the Santa Anita Derby impressively, the son of Empire Maker was back in the top slot on my list.
So I’m staying with Pioneerof the Nile, though the complications of a horse who has never run on conventional dirt figure to be an even stickier wicket on an “off” track. But I like the way this horse has progressed through his four races since joining the barn of three-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert, he’s had zero setbacks along the way, and has appeared to train extremely well since arriving at Churchill Downs. The choice by jockey Garrett Gomez and his agent Ron Anderson, to ride Pioneerof the Nile instead of the lightly raced but ultra-talented Dunkirk bolstered my confidence that much more, and I think he’ll get an average to fast pace to run at in this year’s Derby.
The highest Beyer Speed Figure for Pioneerof the Nile (99) is lower than the lifetime best Beyer for nine of the others in the race, but I’m not convinced speed figures are as accurate on synthetics as they are on conventional dirt, and horsemen have said for years that California figures are habitually lower than those of their East Coast and Midwest rivals. Plus, none of these horses has ever gone a mile and a quarter on dirt, so the Beyer Figures that apply to shorter distances are in some ways irrelevant on Derby Day, at least the way I look at it.
Pioneerof the Nile not only has won four consecutive graded stakes for Baffert and the Zayat Stable, the horses he’s defeated have gone on to bigger and better things after they left Southern California. The best example, of course, is morning-line favorite I Want Revenge, who was beaten twice by the Pioneer and then swept the Gotham and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in separate invasions of New York. Chocolate Candy won two stakes in Northern California after being defeated in the Cash Call Futurity by Pioneerof the Nile, and Papa Clem ran second to Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby and then defeated Old Fashioned at Oaklawn Park in the Arkansas Derby.
Going back to my handicapping roots while at the Daily Racing Form 20 years ago and from knowledge I gained from reading books by such brilliant handicappers as Steve Davidowitz and the late Tom Ainslie (aka Richard Carter), those victories by horses that chased Pioneerof the Nile made his victories that much more significant.
So Pioneerof the Nile is my top pick to win. Here’s how I feel about the rest of the field, in post position order:
1) West Side Bernie, jockey Stewart Elliott. Let’s give credit to trainer Kelly Breen and owners Lori and George Hall for getting two horses to the Derby (Atomic Rain being the other). That’s an achievement in itself, though I would be shocked to see either of them hit the board.
2) Musket Man, jockey Eibar Coa. Has been really smartly placed by trainer Derek Ryan throughout his career, resulting in five wins from six starts. Son of Yonaguska has never faced this kind of competition, however.
3) Mr. Hot Stuff, jockey John Velazquez. Full brother to Travers winner Colonel John has been slower developing than his year-older sibling. He’ll be running late, though if he’s a threat for anything it will be for third or fourth place. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him duplicate what Colonel John did at Saratoga three months down the road.
4) Advice, jockey Rene Douglas. Couldn’t win in New Mexico, but neither could Real Quiet, who won the Derby and Preakness and just missed the Triple Crown by a nose. But Real Quiet’s sojourn to the Land of Enchantment was as a 2-year-old, and Advice ran fifth there in late March of his 3-year-old season. Another late-developer it appears who won’t be a threat to win.
5) Hold Me Back, jockey Kent Desormeaux. Another synthetic surface specialist, specifically Polytrack, where he’s won 3-of-4, with a second in the Blue Grass. Only dirt start, a fifth in the Remsen, makes him a throw-out in my book.
6) Friesan Fire, jockey Gabriel Saez. Can Larry Jones improve on his last two Derby runner-up finishes. think he’s got the best chance to win that he’s had since arriving on the Derby scene in 2007, especially if the track does come up sloppy. Jones isn’t a conventional trainer, giving the horse a long layoff between the March 14 Louisiana Derby and the first Saturday in May, but I like the pattern of works he’s put into this son of A.P. Indy.
7) Papa Clem, jockey Rafael Bejarano. Gary Stute might have the horse to finish the job his father, Mel Stute, started in 1986 when Snow Chief lost the Derby as the heavy favorite. Smart Strike has turned into a world-class sire, and Stute has this colt sharp as a tack after blowing him out a quick three furlongs on Thursday, an old-school move that I really like. He could be sitting just off the pace and make the first run when the speed tires.
8 ) Mine That Bird, jockey Calvin Borel. Calvin had his big day two years ago aboard Street Sense and on Friday in the Kentucky Oaks aboard Rachel Alexandra. No matter how far back this son of Birdstone finishes, Calvin will have nothing to be disappointed about.
9) Join in the Dance, jockey Chris Decarlo. Todd Pletcher said the Sky Mesa colt “will be in front” in the early stages of the Derby, but I think Join in the Dance will look down that long Churchill Downs stretch and throw in the towel without much of a fight.
10) Regal Ransom, jockey Alan Garcia. Won the UAE Derby over the more highly regarded stablemate Desert Party, but the track that night was speed favoring, and he was under no pressure whatsoever. I see a different scenario here and don’t think the son of Distorted Humor will ever see the front.
11) Chocolate Candy, jockey Mike Smith. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer knows how to win big races at Churchill Downs, having won two Kentucky Oaks, and this son of Candy Ride gives him a legitimate shot in the Derby. Though his entire career has been spent on synthetic tracks in California, I have a suspicion, based on his pedigree, that he will adapt to a sloppy track much better than some of the others.
12) General Quarters, jockey Julian Leparoux. The worst bet in the field, based on the early odds on Friday. Apparently, everyone who ever went to the Louisville school where owner and trainer Tom McCarthy was a teacher and principal bet on this son of Sky Mesa, driving his odds far lower than they should be. He won the Blue Grass, but I don’t like how he’s trained since then, and the field he beat at Keeneland was not a very good one.
13) (SCRATCHED) I Want Revenge, jockey Joe Talamo. The biggest threat to Pioneerof the Nile on paper, based on those two impressive New York victories in the Gotham and Wood Memorial. The Stephen Got Even colt has versatility, so it will be interesting where young Joe Talamo places him in the early going. Jeff Mullins has won big races in his career, but none this big. The Derby is I Want Revenge’s third big road trip in less than two months, and I suspect that could take a little something out of the colt.
14) Atomic Rain, jockey Joe Bravo. Another son of Smart Strike, he showed good form last year when second in the Remsen to Old Fashioned, but hasn’t really progressed this year, and wasn’t intended for the race until a late withdrawal opened the doors for him. Pass.
15) Dunkirk, jockey Edgar Prado. I have really been conflicted on this horse. First, I’m a believer there’s a reason horses without 2-year-old form have not done well in the Kentucky Derby. There is an important seasoning factor that helps win this race, with its big field, hectic training schedule and frenetic race-day atmosphere. Trainer Todd Pletcher has kept the horse in the quiet surroundings of Palm Meadows training in Florida until mid-week, but he’s only had three starts and none since March 28, when he was a tired horse when beaten by Quality Road in the Florida Derby. He has plenty of ability, but this presents a steep hill to climb.
16) Pioneerof the Nile, jockey Garrett Gomez. So many things are in his favor: a winning record, outstanding pedigree, top-class rider and a trainer who knows what it takes to win the Kentucky Derby. The biggest question mark is the transition from synthetics to dirt, and that’s obviously why Baffert took an outside post position, to have a minimum amount of kickback in Pioneerof the Nile’s face, especially in the early stages of the race.
17) Summer Bird, jockey Chris Rosier. After breaking his maiden he made his first stakes start in the Arkansas Derby and finished a credible third. I’ve got him in the last pool, even though his running style suggests he could pass tiring horses in the stretch.
18) Nowhere to Hide, jockey Shaun Bridgomohan. Trainer Nick Zito loves the Kentucky, and he’s shown in the past that he’s willing to bring a horse with little to no chance just to have a spot in the starting gate. That’s the case, I’m afraid.
19) Desert Party, jockey Ramon Dominguez. I think this Street Cry colt represents the best chance Godolphin has had to win the Kentucky Derby, but I just don’t believe he can overcome the long travel and difficult transition back to American racing after spending the winter in Dubai.
20) Flying Private, jockey Robbie Albarado. If anyone loves the Derby than Nick Zito it’s D. Wayne Lukas. But I’ll say this about Lukas: he’s won or ran big inraces before with horses like this that didn’t look like they belonged. Best race was on the Polytrack at Turfway Park, and that doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in this son of Fusaichi Pegasus.
THE BET: I’m not a huge gimmicks player, so I’ll be boxing exactas and trifectas using Pioneerof the Nile, Papa Clem, Friesan Fire and Chocolate Candy and throwing I Want Revenge out of the picture altogether. I think his travel itinerary will have gotten to him. But aside from I Want Revenge, I see Derby 135 as mostly a California stampede.
More than anything else, let’s hope for a safe trip for everyone from start to finish.
Who do you like in this year’s Kentucky Derby? Please use the comment section below to give us your picks and analysis of the race.
Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: 135th kentucky derby, beyer speed figures, Bob Baffert, Chocolate Candy, Friesan Fire, garrett gomez, gary stute, I Want Revenge, joe talamo, kentucky derby, mel stute, Papa Clem, Paulick Report, Pioneerof The Nile, Ray Paulick, richard carter, ron anderson, run for the roses, snow chief, steve davidowitz
Posted in Ray Paulick, kentucky derby | 10 Comments »
Tuesday, April 7th, 2009
It was a weekend of much consequence for the ever-shaping Derby Trail. In the Santa Anita Derby, Pioneerof the Nile strengthened his credentials as a top pick with an impressive win while Chocolate Candy shot up four places on the Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment on the back of a strong second place finish. In Illinois, Musket Man finally made a case strong enough for our voters, cracking our list for the first time at number nine. And I Want Revenge showed his prowess with a highly unusual and seemingly impossible ride in the Wood Memorial. Despite severely stumbling out of the gate, he stuck with the race and battled from last to first.
The weekend also had its fair share of disappointments with poor performances by hopefuls Imperial Council and Mr. Hot Stuff. However, most disturbing was the sudden scratch of The Pamplemousse, rendering this previous favorite completely off the Derby Trail. Quality Road also had a run in this weekend when a quarter crack was discovered in his right hind hoof. Since the news broke after many of our balloters had submitted their selections, look to see how far Quality Road drops in next week’s poll.
Next weekend, the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes will help to round out the Derby picture for many of the horses on our list including Old Fashioned, Papa Clem, Win Willy, Patena and Mafaaz.
Ray Paulick’s Analysis
1-Pioneerof the Nile. With the scratch of The Pamplemousse, the Santa Anita Derby came up a completely different kind of race than trainer Bob Baffert was hoping to get for the Empire Maker colt. But despite the crawling pace, Pioneerof the Nile came through with perhaps his best performance yet. He’ll get a fast pace in the Kentucky Derby, giving him the opportunity to make the kind of late run that Baffert thinks will best suit him.
2-I Want Revenge. Spectacular performance in the Wood Memorial, showing the Stephen Got Even colt’s versatility. He showed speed in the Gotham and blew away the field at the top of the stretch, and had to utilize a completely different running style here. I’m not big into offering owners advice, but if I were David Lanzman and Mike Iavarone, I’d get some duct tape and put it on trainer Jeff Mullins’ mouth when the media shows up Derby week. Nothing he says is going to help him in the mess he created at the Aqueduct detention barn last Saturday prior to the Bay Shore Stakes.
3- Dunkirk. He moved up without racing this week, and the chances of getting into the starting field with his limited graded stakes earnings look better than ever. On the downside, if Dunkirk, with his expensive yearling price tag and fancy pedigree, does win the Derby and other big races as a 3-year-old, what are the chances we’ll see him as a 4-year-old next year. But I digress. He is an exciting prospect who should improve, if serious physical ailments aren’t the reason for his light record.
4-Quality Road. I had to chuckle when I saw the headline “Quality Road Quarter Crack Not Serious” on one web site. It’s right there with “mild” heart attack. That’s the same kind of spin Team IEAH was trying to put out last year when Big Brown’s quarter crack re-emerged just before the Belmont, forcing Rick Dutrow to alter training. Missing any training in the final weeks before the Kentucky Derby is a serious setback, so we need to watch this one closely.
5-Friesan Fire. He’s got some history to beat with his long layoff and Louisiana wintertime route to Churchill Downs, but this is a good horse, and the Vinery Stable (co-owners with Rick Porter’s Fox Hill Farm) is one of the hottest things going in racing right now, from limited numbers.
6-Old Fashioned. Arkansas Derby is the big test. Is he just a miler? I like the rider switch and think the Unbridled’s Song colt will avenge his only career loss, suffered when when he was a bit too close to a hot pace on a tiring Oaklawn track in the Rebel.
7-Musket Man. The under the radar horse can’t stay hidden any longer after winning Saturday’s Illinois Derby impressively. Son of Yonaguska is one of those horses that looks better on paper the longer you look at him, though it’s a pedigree that comes up light on stamina.
8-Desert Party. Not much new to report on UAE Derby runner-up. I’m sure it was a quiet week for him.
9-Chocolate Candy. Ran a really solid race against Pioneereof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby, closing ground late on super slow fractions. I know it’s horse racing (not owner racing), but would love to see Jenny Craig in the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs on Derby Day with a son of Candy Ride that she bred with her late husband. After a week of dealing with the likes of Ernie Paragallo, I’d like to see good people rewarded, and she certainly qualifies.
10-Papa Clem. Let’s hope the Arkansas Derby comes up with a fast track. If it does, I wouldn’t be surprised to see son of Smart Strike be the one to upset Old Fashioned. The win would further validate the strength of the West Coast’s 3-year-olds, a point that’s already been made by I Want Revenge’s New York performances.
Ray Paulick
|
Fan Vote |
Alex Brown |
Paul Moran |
Billy Reed |
John Conte |
Bill Finley |
| Paulick Report |
Paulick Report |
Alex Brown Racing |
At The Races |
Billy Reed Says |
Conte’s Picks
|
ESPN, NYT |
| Pioneerof the Nile |
I Want Revenge |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
Pioneerof the Nile |
I Want Revenge |
I Want Revenge |
| I Want Revenge |
Quality Road |
Rachel Alexandra |
I Want Revenge |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
Friesan Fire |
| Dunkirk |
Friesan Fire |
I Want Revenge |
Pioneerof the Nile |
I Want Revenge |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Quality Road |
| Quality Road |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Desert Party |
Rachel Alexandra |
Old Fashioned |
Chocolate Candy |
Pioneerof the Nile |
| Friesan Fire |
Old Fashioned |
Friesan Fire |
Old Fashioned |
Friesan Fire |
West Side Bernie |
Old Fashioned |
| Old Fashioned |
Dunkirk |
Dunkirk |
Regal Ransom |
Dunkirk |
Friesan Fire |
Regal Ransom |
|
Musket Man
|
Chocolate Candy |
Mafaaz |
Desert Party |
Chocolate Candy |
Musket Man |
Dunkirk |
| Desert Party |
Musket Man |
Regal Ransom |
Chocolate Candy |
Terrain |
Old Fashioned |
Desert Party |
| Chocolate Candy |
Win Willy |
Musket Man |
Friesan Fire |
Musket Man |
Terrain |
Win Willy |
| Papa Clem |
Desert Party |
Win Willy |
Musket Man |
Desert Party |
Giant Oak |
Chocolate Candy |
| Randy Moss |
Bill Nack |
Valerie Grash |
Gary West |
Michael Nikolic |
Dana Byerly |
Jeremy Plonk |
| ESPN |
ESPN |
Foolish Pleasure |
FW Star-Telegram |
Gathering the Wind |
Green But Game |
Horseplayer Pro, ESPN |
| I Want Revenge |
Quality Road |
Friesan Fire |
Quality Road |
Friesan Fire |
Friesan Fire |
Pioneerof the Nile |
| Dunkirk |
I Want Revenge |
Rachel Alexandra |
I Want Revenge |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
| Friesan Fire |
Dunkirk |
I Want Revenge |
Old Fashioned |
Pioneerof the Nile |
I Want Revenge |
Dunkirk |
| Desert Party |
Friesan Fire |
Quality Road |
Pioneerof the Nile |
I Want Revenge |
Old Fashioned |
I Want Revenge |
| Quality Road |
Chocolate Candy |
Old Fashioned |
Dunkirk |
Chocolate Candy |
Regal Ransom |
Friesan Fire |
| Pioneerof the Nile |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Papa Clem |
Friesan Fire |
Papa Clem |
Desert Party |
Old Fashioned |
| Old Fashioned |
Musket Man |
Dunkirk |
Desert Party |
Old Fashioned |
Dunkirk |
Terrain |
| Win Willy |
Stardom Bound |
Chocolate Candy |
Win Willy |
Musket Man |
Musket Man |
Desert Party |
| Musket Man |
Win Willy |
Musket Man |
Musket Man |
Desert Party |
Chocolate Candy |
Chocolate Candy |
| Chocolate Candy |
Old Fashioned |
Mr. Hot Stuff |
Regal Ransom |
Dunkirk |
Papa Clem |
Hold Me Back |
| Bill Christine |
John Pricci |
Vic Zast |
Jon White |
Richard Eng |
Alan Mann |
Alicia Wincze |
| Horserace Insider |
Horserace Insider |
Horserace Insider |
HRTV, Santa Anita TV |
Las Vegas R-J |
Left at the Gate |
Lexington H-L |
| I Want Revenge |
Quality Road |
Friesan Fire |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Friesan Fire |
Dunkirk |
Friesan Fire |
| Quality Road |
I Want Revenge |
Quality Road |
I Want Revenge |
Pioneerof the Nile |
I Want Revenge |
Pioneerof the Nile |
| Pioneerof the Nile |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Quality Road |
I Want Revenge |
Pioneerof the Nile |
I Want Revenge |
| Friesan Fire |
Friesan Fire |
I Want Revenge |
Chocolate Candy |
Quality Road |
Papa Clem |
Quality Road |
| Desert Party |
Old Fashioned |
Dunkirk |
Friesan Fire |
Dunkirk |
Chocolate Candy |
Old Fashioned |
| Old Fashioned |
Chocolate Candy |
Old Fashioned |
Dunkirk |
Old Fashioned |
Win Willy |
Chocolate Candy |
| Dunkirk |
Dunkirk |
Regal Ransom |
Old Fashioned |
Patena |
Friesan Fire |
Dunkirk |
| Chocolate Candy |
Win Willy |
Chocolate Candy |
Papa Clem |
Win Willy |
Old Fashioned |
Desert Party |
| Regal Ransom |
Desert Party |
Musket Man |
Musket Man |
Chocolate Candy |
Quality Road |
Regal Ransom |
| Theregoesjojo |
Musket Man |
Desert Party |
Theregoesjojo |
Musket Man |
Musket Man |
Musket Man |
| Art Wilson |
Joe Drape |
Andy Serling |
Jessica Chapel |
Brendan O’Meara |
Jeff Scott |
Lisa Grimm |
| Los Angeles Newspapers |
New York Times |
NYRA |
Railbird |
The Saratogian |
The Saratogian |
SuperfectaBlog |
| I Want Revenge |
Mafaaz |
Dunkirk |
I Want Revenge |
Friesan Fire |
I Want Revenge |
I Want Revenge |
| Pioneerof the Nile |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
I Want Revenge |
Friesan Fire |
Quality Road |
| Friesan Fire |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Desert Party |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Pioneerof the Nile |
| Quality Road |
Friesan Fire |
I Want Revenge |
Desert Party |
Quality Road |
Desert Party |
Friesan Fire |
| Old Fashioned |
Old Fashioned |
Rachel Alexandra |
Old Fashioned |
Dunkirk |
Quality Road |
Chocolate Candy |
| Chocolate Candy |
I Want Revenge |
Friesan Fire |
Friesan Fire |
Old Fashioned |
Flat Out |
Old Fashioned |
| Dunkirk |
Dunkirk |
Win Willy |
Dunkirk |
Desert Party |
Terrain |
Regal Ransom |
| Musket Man |
Terrain |
West Side Bernie |
Regal Ransom |
Chocolate Candy |
Dunkirk |
Papa Clem |
| Papa Clem |
Win Willy |
Musket Man |
Papa Clem |
Musket Man |
Musket Man |
Mafaaz |
| Giant Oak |
Musket Man |
N/A |
Terrain |
Rachel Alexandra |
Chocolate Candy |
Dunkirk |
| Patrick Patten |
Peter Denk |
Nick Kling |
Simon Bray |
Todd Schrupp |
| Tbred Bloggers Alliance |
Thoroughbred Times |
The Troy Record |
TVG |
TVG |
| Friesan Fire |
I Want Revenge |
I Want Revenge |
I Want Revenge |
Old Fashioned |
| Pioneerof the Nile |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
| Quality Road |
Dunkirk |
Dunkirk |
Pioneerof the Nile |
I Want Revenge |
| I Want Revenge |
Friesan Fire |
Friesan Fire |
Friesan Fire |
Dunkirk |
| Musket Man |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Old Fashioned |
Old Fashioned |
Friesan Fire |
| Chocolate Candy |
Old Fashioned |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Chocolate Candy |
Desert Party |
| Patena |
Win Wily |
Patena |
Desert Party |
Pioneerof the Nile |
| Papa Clem |
Desert Party |
Desert Party |
Dunkirk |
Big Drama |
| Terrain |
Chocolate Candy |
Regal Ransom |
Musket Man |
Musket Man |
| West Side Bernie |
Musket Man |
Mafaaz |
Win Willy |
Win Willy |
Tags: Alan Mann, alex brown, Alicia Wincze, andy serling, Art Wilson, bill christine, bill finley, bill nack, Billy Reed, Brendan O'Meara, Dana Byerly, Gary West, Jeff Scott, Jeremy Plonk, Jessica Chapel, Joe Drape, John Conte, John Pricci, Jon White, Lisa Grimm, Michael Nikolic, Nick Kling, Patrick Patten, Paul Moran, Peter Denk, randy moss, Ray Paulick, Richard Eng, Simon Bray, Todd Schrupp, Valerie Grash, Vic Zast
Posted in PDI, Paulick Derby Index, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick | 12 Comments »
Tuesday, March 31st, 2009
After a very strong Derby prep weekend, featuring races in Dubai and Florida, several winners emerged. Quality Road for the first time makes his ascension to the top of our Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment despite having fewer first-place votes than second-place finisher Friesan Fire. His impressive win in the Florida Derby proved only to cloud the upper echelon of 3-year-olds this year with five horses within striking distance at the top. Next weekend’s Wood Memorial (I Want Revenge) and Santa Anita Derby (Pioneerof the Nile, The Pamplemousse) should answer many questions…or further delay a consensus favorite.
The aforementioned Pioneerof the Nile wins the "What have you done for me lately" award, dropping from 2nd to 4th and losing six first-place votes despite having done nothing to hurt his case. On the flip side, despite losing in the Florida Derby, Dunkirk actually moved up a place this week. Theregoesjojo went bye bye, dropping off our list from 13th place. And Beethoven rolled over once more as he continued his hot/cold relationship with our voters after skipping the Florida Derby due to an injury.
Ray Paulick’s top 10 and analysis:
1-Quality Road. It wasn’t the strongest Florida Derby field ever assembled (that’s an understatement), but Quality Road progressed from a one-turn miler to a two-turn horse very impressively. The final time was meaningless (because of how the track was playing), though I like the way he lengthened his stride and turned back a talented Dunkirk down the stretch. The Jerkens family has never been big on traveling road shows, so it will be interesting to see where and how trainer Jimmy Jerkens prepares the son of Elusive Quality for the Kentucky Derby.
2-Pioneerof the Nile. His big test comes Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby. Here is how clocker Bruno De Julio (www.racingwithbruno.com <http://www.racingwithbruno.com> ) described son of Empire Maker’s five-furlong workout over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride synthetic surface last Wednesday: “Pioneerof The Nile, with Joe Steiner on board, worked a strong five furlongs in 59.1 and out in 111.2. Galloping out in 126 for seven furlongs. He extended strongly through the lane. Baffert definitely tightened the girth on ‘Nile and he responded with a good work. Nile is not the prettiest of movers on this track, and that drew some criticism from some onlookers. He has never really been a horse that has handled the pro-ride ‘pretty’.” Do I think Baffert will have tightened the screws completely for the Santa Anita Derby? Of course not, so I won’t be that surprised to see Pioneerof the Nile come up short in his final Kentucky Derby prep.
3-The Pamplemousse. With Julio Canani in Dubai, front-running son of Kafwain worked rather unimpressively, six furlongs in 1:13 flat, according to Bruno De Julio, in his final Santa Anita Derby tune-up. Here are Bruno’s comments: “He started quickly early as he broke from the pole pulling Alex Solis from the saddle. He went the first half mile in 47 flat while being kept wide off the fence and finished in a lackluster 26 flat on our watch. Railroad, the old claimer, ran up inside of him in the lane, but that didn’t get ‘Mousse’s dandruff up at all. In fact, he was shut down late. Alex Solis seemed to be moving his hands just slightly, as he did last week. The colt galloped out rather slowly in 127 and change.” Despite the less-than-rave reviews, I think The Pamplemousse will be tough to catch in the Santa Anita Derby.
4-Dunkirk. Showed he’s a very good horse when closing against a Gulfstream Park dirt track with a speed bias in the Florida Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher has been playing some serious catch-up with the Unbridled’s Song colt, as this was just his third start of the year after going unraced as a 2-year-old. If he gets into the Derby field, he will be highly regarded, but the lack of experience unquestionably plays against him. Nevertheless, I thought his Florida Derby performance was a huge step forward and puts him into the ranks of leading contenders.
5-Friesan Fire. The more I review the decision to prep the son of A.P. Indy at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, the more skeptical I am that he’s in quite the same league as the Florida and California-based 3-year-olds. Louisiana has seldom been a successful route to the Kentucky Derby, and I really haven’t seen that much in terms of depth of competition that makes me change my mind. Besides, the daylight victory in the slop in the Louisiana Derby may be less meaningful than the margin indicates simply because of the track condition.
6-I Want Revenge. No reason he can’t repeat his Gotham performance this Saturday in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, unless the back-and-forth travel from California to New York gets to him. Have to admit I overlooked this son of Stephen Got Even until the Gotham, probably in part because of the big-race inexperience of trainer Jeff Mullins. Here are clocker Bruno De Julio’s comments on his final work last Sunday at Hollywood Park: “He worked solo and relaxed nicely to the pole in 12.3, 24.2, and 36 flat to the 1/4 pole. You can see him winding up and (Joe) Talamo barely shook the reins. The colt pricked his left ear inside the furlong pole waiting forTalamo to ask him. Talamo never did and the colt shut himself off and finished in 59.4 on our watch. Final 1/4 in 23.4 and out in 112.4 for six furlongs, 127.1 for seven furlongs and out a mile in 143 flat. He actually went out a mile and three quarters before pulling up.” Bruno seems to be saying the colt can run all day.
7-Old Fashioned. One-time leader of the division slips a few more spots as other contenders step up. Son of Unbridled’s Song will need to turn in impressive performance in the Arkansas Derby to regain any support, and even then the competition won’t be that deep, so it would be a somewhat hollow victory.
8-Desert Party. Lost the UAE Derby to stablemate Regal Ransom on a track that really played to speed. It’s so difficult to know how much a transoceanic trip is going to take out of the Dubai-based horses, but I wouldn’t throw son of Street Cry out completely just because of the UAE loss.
9-Imperial Council. Son of Empire Maker remains the sleeper in my top 10. A big effort in the Wood against I Want Revenge moves him up considerably, but a flat performance may take him out of the Derby altogether.
10-Regal Ransom. Fought off Desert Party while winning the UAE Derby in solid performance. Historically, the race hasn’t meant much vis a vis the Kentucky Derby, but I have to think that’s going to change one of these years.
Ray Paulick
|
Fan Vote |
Alex Brown |
Paul Moran |
Billy Reed |
John Conte |
Bill Finley |
| Paulick Report |
Paulick Report |
Alex Brown Racing |
At The Races |
Billy Reed Says |
Conte’s Picks
|
ESPN, NYT |
| Quality Road |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
Pioneerof the Nile |
N/A |
Friesan Fire |
| Pioneerof the Nile |
Friesan Fire |
Friesan Fire |
I Want Revenge |
Quality Road |
N/A |
Quality Road |
| The Pamplemousse |
I Want Revenge |
The Pamplemousse |
Friesan Fire |
Old Fashioned |
N/A |
Pioneerof the Nile |
| Dunkirk |
The Pamplemousse |
I Want Revenge |
Old Fashioned |
Friesan Fire |
N/A |
Old Fashioned |
| Friesan Fire |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Rachel Alexandra |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Dunkirk |
N/A |
The Pamplemousse |
| I Want Revenge |
Dunkirk |
Desert Party |
The Pamplemousse |
Imperial Council |
N/A |
I Want Revenge |
| Old Fashioned |
Old Fashioned |
Dunkirk |
Regal Ransom |
Desert Party |
N/A |
Regal Ransom |
| Desert Party |
Rachel Alexandra |
Affirmatif |
Desert Party |
I Want Revenge |
N/A |
Dunkirk |
| Imperial Council |
Desert Party |
Stardom Bound |
Stardom Bound |
The Pamplemousse |
N/A |
Desert Party |
| Regal Ransom |
Imperial Council |
Mafaaz |
Rachel Alexandra |
Terrain |
N/A |
Win Willy |
| Randy Moss |
Bill Nack |
Valerie Grash |
Gary West |
Michael Nikolic |
Dana Byerly |
Jeremy Plonk |
| ESPN |
ESPN |
Foolish Pleasure |
FW Star-Telegram |
Gathering the Wind |
Green But Game |
Horseplayer Pro, ESPN |
| Quality Road |
Quality Road |
Friesan Fire |
Quality Road |
Friesan Fire |
Friesan Fire |
Pioneerof the Nile |
| I Want Revenge |
Dunkirk |
Rachel Alexandra |
I Want Revenge |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
| Dunkirk |
The Pamplemousse |
Quality Road |
Old Fashioned |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Stardom Bound |
Dunkirk |
| Friesan Fire |
I Want Revenge |
Old Fashioned |
Dunkirk |
I Want Revenge |
Old Fashioned |
Friesan Fire |
| The Pamplemousse |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Stardom Bound |
Friesan Fire |
Chocolate Candy |
I Want Revenge |
Imperial Council |
| Desert Party |
Friesan Fire |
Papa Clem |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Old Fashioned |
Regal Ransom |
Mr. Hot Stuff |
| Pioneerof the Nile |
Imperial Council |
I Want Revenge |
Imperial Council |
Papa Clem |
Desert Party |
I Want Revenge |
| Old Fashioned |
Stardom Bound |
Imperial Council |
Big Drama |
The Pamplemousse |
Dunkirk |
Old Fashioned |
| Win Willy |
Win Willy |
Mr. Hot Stuff |
Theregoesjojo |
Desert Party |
Imperial Council |
Terrain |
| Regal Ransom |
Old Fashioned |
Dunkirk |
The Pamplemousse |
Dunkirk |
Papa Clem |
Desert Party |
| Bill Christine |
John Pricci |
Vic Zast |
Jon White |
Richard Eng |
Alan Mann |
Alicia Wincze |
| Horserace Insider |
Horserace Insider |
Horserace Insider |
HRTV, Santa Anita TV |
Las Vegas R-J |
Left at the Gate |
Lexington H-L |
| I Want Revenge |
Quality Road |
Friesan Fire |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Friesan Fire |
Dunkirk |
Friesan Fire |
| Quality Road |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
The Pamplemousse |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Pioneerof the Nile |
| Pioneerof the Nile |
Friesan Fire |
Pioneerof the Nile |
I Want Revenge |
Quality Road |
Stardom Bound |
Quality Road |
| Friesan Fire |
The Pamplemousse |
I Want Revenge |
Friesan Fire |
Dunkirk |
The Pamplemousse |
The Pamplemousse |
| Desert Party |
I Want Revenge |
The Pamplemousse |
The Pamplemousse |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Quality Road |
Old Fashioned |
| Old Fashioned |
Old Fashioned |
Dunkirk |
Dunkirk |
Old Fashioned |
I Want Revenge |
I Want Revenge |
| The Pamplemousse |
Dunkirk |
Old Fashioned |
Old Fashioned |
I Want Revenge |
Papa Clem |
Chocolate Candy |
| Dunkirk |
Papa Clem |
Imperial Council |
Papa Clem |
Patena |
Win Willy |
Dunkirk |
| Regal Ransom |
Desert Party |
Chocolate Candy |
Chocolate Candy |
Win Willy |
Friesan Fire |
Desert Party |
| Theregoesjojo |
Win Willy |
Regal Ransom |
Theregoesjojo |
Imperial Council |
Imperial Council |
Regal Ransom |
| Art Wilson |
Joe Drape |
Andy Serling |
Jessica Chapel |
Brendan O’Meara |
Jeff Scott |
Lisa Grimm |
| Los Angeles Newspapers |
New York Times |
NYRA |
Railbird |
The Saratogian |
The Saratogian |
SuperfectaBlog |
| The Pamplemousse |
Mafaaz |
Imperial Council |
Quality Road |
Friesan Fire |
I Want Revenge |
The Pamplemousse |
| Friesan Fire |
Quality Road |
Dunkirk |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Quality Road |
Friesan Fire |
Quality Road |
| Pioneerof the Nile |
Friesan Fire |
Desert Party |
I Want Revenge |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Friesan Fire |
| Old Fashioned |
Pioneerof the Nile |
I Want Revenge |
Desert Party |
I Want Revenge |
Desert Party |
I Want Revenge |
| I Want Revenge |
Old Fashioned |
Quality Road |
Old Fashioned |
Dunkirk |
Quality Road |
Pioneerof the Nile |
| Quality Road |
The Pamplemousse |
Rachel Alexandra |
Friesan Fire |
The Pamplemousse |
Flat Out |
Regal Ransom |
| Chocolate Candy |
I Want Revenge |
The Pamplemousse |
Dunkirk |
Desert Party |
Terrain |
Old Fashioned |
| Dunkirk |
Dunkirk |
Friesan Fire |
Regal Ransom |
Old Fashioned |
Dunkirk |
Dunkirk |
| Imperial Council |
Terrain |
Just a Coincidence |
Imperial Council |
Win Willy |
The Pamplemousse |
Chocolate Candy |
| Papa Clem |
Win Willy |
Win Willy |
Papa Clem |
Imperial Council |
Mr. Hot Stuff |
Imperial Council |
| Patrick Patten |
Peter Denk |
Nick Kling |
Simon Bray |
Todd Schrupp |
| Tbred Bloggers Alliance |
Thoroughbred Times |
The Troy Record |
TVG |
TVG |
| Friesan Fire |
I Want Revenge |
Friesan Fire |
I Want Revenge |
Old Fashioned |
| Pioneerof the Nile |
Quality Road |
Quality Road |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Quality Road |
| The Pamplemousse |
Dunkirk |
Dunkirk |
Quality Road |
Dunkirk |
| Quality Road |
Friesan Fire |
I Want Revenge |
Friesan Fire |
The Pamplemousse |
| I Want Revenge |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Imperial Council |
Old Fashioned |
Friesan Fire |
| Chocolate Candy |
Old Fashioned |
Old Fashioned |
The Pamplemousse |
I Want Revenge |
| Patena |
Win Wily |
The Pamplemousse |
Dunkirk |
Desert Party |
| Papa Clem |
Desert Party |
Pioneerof the Nile |
Chocolate Candy |
Big Drama |
| Terrain |
The Pamplemousse |
Patena |
Desert Party |
Pioneerof the Niile |
| General Quarters |
Imperial Council |
Desert Party |
Imperial Council |
Affirmatif |
Tags: Alan Mann, alex brown, Alicia Wincze, andy serling, Art Wilson, bill christine, bill finley, bill nack, Billy Reed, Brendan O'Meara, Dana Byerly, Fan Vote, Gary West, Jeff Scott, Jeremy Plonk, Jessica Chapel, Joe Drape, John Conte, John Pricci, Jon White, Lisa Grimm, Michael Nikolic, Nick Kling, Patrick Patten, Paul Moran, Paulick Derby Index, PDI, Peter Denk, randy moss, Ray Paulick, Richard Eng, Simon Bray, Todd Schrupp, Valerie Grash, Vic Zast
Posted in PDI, Paulick Derby Index, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick | 12 Comments »
Friday, March 27th, 2009
On the eve of some great racing – the 2009 Dubai World Cup and the Florida Derby, it is a good time to point out the times the Paulick Report has highlighted the brighter side of life in the Thoroughbred industry. While the news seems pretty bleak and often is, there are many positive things we can all focus on as we look forward to an exciting 3-year-old season — for both colts and fillies.
Back during the week of Thanksgiving, we spent each day highlighting one of the many strong Thoroughbred charities working hard to make our industry a more humane one for the horses that compete and the people who help put on the show. We began that week with Anna House, an extension of the Belmont Child Care Association AT Belmont Park that provides childcare for the hard-working backstretch employees. There was ReRun, a horse adoption organization that put together an auction of their “Moneigh” collection to raise funds. We explored the multi-faceted mission of Thoroughbred Charities of America, a former colleague of mine at the Bloodhorse and Thoroughbred Times who dedicates much of his time to the Salvation Army, a halfway house of sorts in Tranquility Farm which transitions Thoroughbreds from the racetrack to adoptive homes and the Exceller Fund, named after the hall of fame horse who died tragically in a European slaughterhouse.
We also featured The Pickens Plan…not the one that’s trying to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. This Pickens plan was run by T. Boone’s wife Madeleine who has a passion for saving wild horses and restoring some of our nation’s tradition of mustangs roaming the Western front. Having an extensive background in the industry after being a partner in the Eclipse award-winning racing and breeding operation with her late husband Allen Paulson, she has decided to work towards giving many of these unwanted animals a sanctuary. We wish her luck and will continue to follow her quest in 2009 and beyond.
And then there are the untold stories of racetracks that are doing things right, both morally and financially. We tip our hat to Suffolk Downs, the first track to step up with a “zero-tolerance” horse welfare program that bans trainers whose horses are sold to slaughter. I had the great pleasure of visiting both Tampa Bay Downs and Oaklawn Park early in 2009. In a time when many tracks are struggling and see slot machines as their only salvation, these two are concentrating on the racing in Thoroughbred racing…and creating a winning product.
It has been a strong fund drive this week and I want to thank those who provided us with moral or financial support. I feel blessed to have this opportunity to help shape the conversation as we travel through these important crossroads. Sometimes it seems like a daunting task to find long-term solutions to this sport we all love so much, but together I believe we can truly change the course of our industry. If you think the Paulick Report is an effective tool in working through these problems, I ask that you consider a donation of $2,000, $1,000, $500, $250, $100 or $50 to help further enhance this site. When considering your donation, compare our value to the $50 cost of a Sports Illustrated subscription, $100 for a year of the Bloodhorse and $1,000 for a full year of the online Racing Form subscription. All donations are kept strictly anonymous.
Click here to support the Paulick Report either via PayPal or the mail.
Tags: anna house, belmont child care association, exceller fund, Madelein Pickens, moneigh, oaklawn park, rerun, salvation army, suffolk downs, Support the Report, tampa bay downs, thoroughbred charities, thoroughbred charities of america, tranquility farm
Posted in Horse Slaughter, Horse Welfare, Industry Reform, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, Thoroughbred Auctions, Thoroughbred Business | Comments Off
Thursday, March 26th, 2009
Once upon a time, there was a rather portly Emperor of a rich but ineffective country called Jockeyclubland. Citizens from all around acquiesced to their dear Emperor Phitts, not because they believed him to be the best ruler, but simply because he was their Emperor. No one dared question the Emperor–not his servants, subjects or the subservient wise men who produced newspapers and magazines about life in the empire. They all knew things were not perfect in Jockeyclubland, but they understood there would be dire consequences if they dared question the Emperor’s rule.
One day, Emperor Phitts welcomed an expert tailor and suit maker who had worked long and hard to deliver a special suit made just for him.
Emperor Phitts nearly exploded with excitement. "I love new suits! Yes, let me see it!" he demanded.
"Well, your majesty, before I show it to you, I want you to know that this suit is a very special one made from the most beautiful cloth. But please know that this cloth is invisible to anyone who is unfit for your esteemed position."
"Let me see it!" exclaimed the Emperor. The unusual tailor pulled out the suit and upon sight, Emperor Phitts panicked. He couldn’t see the suit. But he wasn’t going to hint that he couldn’t see the material and insisted the tailor try the suit on him. He found himself hoping it was made in his size.
"It’s perfect your majesty. Fits you like a dream," the tailor said.
Confused but still unwilling to admit his shortcomings, Emperor Phitts agreed with the unusual tailor. "Yes, I love it!" he feigned. "What is the fabric called if you don’t mind me asking?"
"Why of course your majesty. It’s called bassemer, and TRUST me, you won’t find a better way to cover your assets in all the land. Now I must be leaving. Good day sire.”
Still troubled by his inability to see the fabric, he walked out of his office to show off his new suit. As he made his way down the broad corridor, each citizen of Jockeyclubland stopped and stared.
"Your majesty, your clothes!" cried one of his servants.
"They are beautiful, aren’t they?" As he checked himself in the mirror again, he still didn’t see a suit. "It’s made from the finest cloth called bassemer."
"Well…it is unique," stuttered the servant.
As the Emperor continued through his day, he realized more and more people noticing his suit and their utter shock at how it looked on him. As the citizens passed, they would talk amongst themselves about how he was walking around unclothed, remarking that he must have lost his mind and expressing concern for the future of Jockeyclubland. But each would then go on with their day, none willing to point out the obvious in fear of the Emperor’s wrath.
The Emperor was upset that he couldn’t see his own clothes, though he was at least relieved to know that he was pulling the wool over people’s eyes. That is until a small, independent news organization with more courage than common sense and unable to be controlled by the Emperor stood up and proclaimed, "Hey, look! The Emperor is not wearing any clothes!"
———–
On a serious note, if you think the Paulick Report has been a breath of fresh air in reporting on the Thoroughbred industry and has helped you better understand its problems and possible solutions, please consider a donation of $2,000, $1,000, $500, $250, $100 or $50. Anonymity is guaranteed. A subscription to Sports Illustrated costs $50, the Bloodhorse $100 and an annual online DRF plan for $1,000. A twice-weekly venti cup of mocha latte frappacino with a double pump of hoopla costs at least $400 at Starbucks. I hope you use this as a guide when you are considering the value the Paulick Report gives you each day.
Click here to support the Paulick Report either via PayPal or the mail.
Tags: Emperor Phitts, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, Support the Report
Posted in Jockey Club, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick | 8 Comments »
Wednesday, March 25th, 2009
First, thanks to all of you who have so generously given to our second periodic PBS knock-off style fundraiser minus the old British actors and an episode of Antique Road Show. Especially in a tough economic climate, your support makes the difference in keeping our subscription free and allows continuing enhancements. It’s Day Three — hump day — and I hope we can count on your support. To put things into perspective, a subscription to Sports Illustrated costs $50, the Bloodhorse $100 and an annual online DRF plan for $1,000. A twice-weekly venti cup of mocha latte frappacino with a double pump of hoopla costs at least $400 at Starbucks. I hope you use this as a guide when you are considering the value the Paulick Report gives you each day.
And now back to our regularly scheduled programming…
As Bob Evans has said many times, “Everybody is somebody at Bob Evans Farm”…I’m sorry, wrong Bob. Churchill Bob — that is — has said in reference to the Kentucky Derby and Churchill Downs, “We are horse racing”. While that might be hard to for the rest of the industry, in many ways he is right. To the average American, the Kentucky Derby is the beginning, middle and end of the racing calendar.
It is this immense popularity that leads owners, breeders, industry professionals, columnists, handicappers, bloggers and fans to immerse themselves in everything Derby between late February and the first Saturday in May. And that is why I have worked hard to create unique content for our Paulick Report readers throughout the Derby season.
Bringing 33 writers, handicappers and bloggers together to create the Paulick Derby Index — essentially an AP Poll for the run up to the Derby has been a formidable effort, but worth every minute of it. We are blessed to have some of the top players in the industry contribute their world class expertise. The multitudes of their perspectives from gender to geography have made what is the most comprehensive poll in the industry. So much so that ESPN, the Lexington Herald-Leader and The Saratogian have all picked it up for their regular coverage.
I have also included analysis of my picks by channeling my Jimmy “The Greek” ghostwriting days. I used to just pull names out of a hat. We’ll see which system is more effective.
We are also proud to feature a top tier pedigree analyst in Edwin Anthony submitting weekly reports on the top Derby contenders. His book “The American Thoroughbred” is a must read for all in the industry.
We’d love to have your vote of confidence in these initiatives and your continued support for more future enhancements to the Paulick Report through your anonymous financial support of $2,000, $1,000, $500, $250, $100 or $50. Please help us maintain our subscription free web publication and independent voice.
Sincerely,
Ray Paulick
Editor and Publisher
Paulick Report
Click here and you can make a donation either by PayPal or through the mail.
Tags: Edwin Anthony, Paulick Derby Index, Support the Report
Posted in Paulick Report, Ray Paulick | Comments Off
Monday, March 23rd, 2009
Dear Friends,
With all of the good economic news on the horizon, this is obviously the perfect time for my periodic PBS knock-off appeal for continued support from our readers. Always known for my impeccable timing, I launched this publication flat in the middle of a recession. And yet despite going against these odds and my initial concern we might only last for 2 months, the Paulick Report has been a success and has made a difference in the Thoroughbred industry. We have been in operation for over nine months and I am proud to say that together we have had a strong hand in steering the conversation of this industry we all love so dearly.
Yet while I have been blessed with some top tier advertisers, the Paulick Report is still not a completely self-sustaining business. (Considering the economic climate and most web-based businesses taking 2-3 years to get out of the red, our progress is actually quite remarkable). Due in large part to our last fundraiser, we were able to add new enhancements like our Paulick Poll, bring on fulltime staff to handle projects like the Paulick Derby Index and increase the frequency of our updates. With further monies, we plan on implementing additional improvements to the site as we push towards a more user-friendly platform and continue to deliver increasing value to our readers.
As you know, the Paulick Report is a subscription free web publication. So it is with a humble hat in hand that I reach out to those who back the Paulick Report’s mission and ask for your financial support. Whether it is $2,000, $1,000, $500, $250, $100 or $50, your generous donation will go towards furthering my mission of progressing the Thoroughbred industry’s only truly independent voice. Any amount is greatly appreciated and rest assured that donor anonymity is guaranteed. Click here and you can make a donation either by PayPal or through the mail.
For the next four days, I will be laying out some of the issues we got right over the last few months and how I believe our leadership has shaped the conversation in a positive and productive way. I hope you support what we do each day at the Paulick Report and find value in its ability to have significant influence on our industry.
Please give what you can so that we can continue to forge on as the leading independent voice for the Thoroughbred industry. And don’t worry; unlike other companies that will remain nameless, I won’t be using your money to pay out $1 million bonuses to my staff.
Regards,
Ray Paulick
Editor and Publisher
Paulick Report
Click here to support the Paulick Report.
Tags: Paulick Report, Support the Report
Posted in Paulick Report, Ray Paulick | Comments Off
Thursday, February 5th, 2009
By Ray Paulick I was both flattered and humbled to be asked to speak at Wednesday night’s monthly meeting of the Kentucky Thoroughbred Farm Managers’ Club and promised several people who asked that I would make a copy of the outline of my talk available on the Paulick Report web site. Click here to access the presentation.
The subject was “An Industry in Transition,” something that clearly has been true in several ways for more than a few years. The big question is where we are in that transition. My five key points were that we are 1) a cyclical industry currently in a “down” cycle, largely because of the global financial crisis but also because of self-inflicted wounds; 2) racing must clean up its act on some issues that have been neglected and urgently need attention; 3) all wagering dollars are not created equally, and that it is extremely important that everyone understands how critical it is for horsemen to be vigilant in protecting their rights in negotiations with racetracks and account wagering companies; 4) there are some opportunities to help create a brighter future; and 5) people in the industry have a voice that can make a difference, and it’s important they use it.
Based on a few questions and comments that followed, I sensed that one of the biggest frustrations many are feeling about the industry is the lack of leadership in the form of a central or league office. Good ideas can be floated to help improve economic conditions, but the age-old question remains: Who will carry them out? I’ve been attending KTFMC meetings (on an infrequent basis) for more than 20 years, and I was impressed by both the size of the turnout (about 175 people showed up at Keeneland on a frigid night in foaling season, when many were still struggling with power outages) and the youthful enthusiasm and insights of many of those on hand. I was especially happy to see that two groups who represent a part of the industry’s future – KEMI, or the Kentucky Equine Management Internship and the Darley Flying Start students – were in attendance. Both are outstanding programs. Finally, I was pleased but not surprised to see first-hand that Gus Koch, a former Farm Manager of the Year and Life Member and former president of the KTFMC, has done more than help breed and raise good horses at Claiborne Farm (and Windfields Farm before that). He’s done just as well, if not better, developing a new generation of horsemen and leaders, including son Matthew, who is the current president of the KTFMC. Another son Charles, is a former KTFMC president; a third, Anthony, is an associate at Hallway Feeds, and a fourth, Steven, is vice president of racing at Woodbine Entertainment in Toronto, Canada. Overall, the evening with the KTFMC gives me faith that our industry’s future will be in good hands. My concern is the condition it will be in when it’s turned over to them. Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world. Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary.
Tags: charles koch, Claiborne Farm, darley flying start, gus koch, Horse Racing, kemi, kentucky equine management internship, kentucky thoroughbred farm managers club, ktfmc, matthew koch, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, steven koch, Thoroughbred industry
Posted in Breeding, Industry Organizations, Kentucky, Ray Paulick, Thoroughbred Business | 9 Comments »
Wednesday, December 24th, 2008
It has been just over six months since the inception of the Paulick Report, and in the year-end spirit of Top Ten Lists and Best Of proclamations; we have decided to put our own spin on a Year That Was wrap-up. Instead of showing our personal narcissistic tendencies by deciding which were the top stories of the year, we have decided to venture into our traffic numbers and determine the ten stories you read most. Enjoy this flashback into the recent past and let us know how this list strikes you in the comments section below.
10. Priority 1: Racing’s Business Model – We start our list with the most commented story of the year with 107 and still counting. Fred Pope’s speech from the University of Arizona’s Symposium on Racing sparked some serious controversy between horseplayers and horsemen as to how to deal with the issue of takeout from simulcasting and ADW wagering. At its core, this sort of back and forth is what the Paulick Report is all about.
9. Free Money: Past-Post Betting – Have you ever wished you could bet on a race after the results came in? Well that is precisely what happened for several horseplayers at Tampa Bay Downs betting on a race from Philadelphia Park. For ten minutes, players took advantage of the ultimate sure thing
The culprit? Most of the blame goes to the tote, a patchwork, less-than-state-of-the-art wagering network that handles $15 billion in bets each year. But most shockingly, this story didn’t see the light of day for several days afterwards. This made way for the Paulick Report’s first exclusive story and wrestling match with the mainstream media. More on that later.
Oh, and the big losers? Those who bet on the 8-1 winner Magical American. Because of the skewed betting results, those who legitimately bet on the winner only got paid $9.20 on a $2 win bet. It just goes to show that nothing in life is truly free, not even a sure thing.
8. Major Breeder Calls For Breeders’ Cup Resignations – Imagine you had thousands of dollars in the stock market and the NYSE sent out a press release announcing they are cancelling the market in 2009. When the Breeders’ Cup announced they were suspending the stakes program for 2009, a lot of breeders across the country felt they were getting a similar short end of the stick. But Liberation Farm’s Rob Whiteley was the only one so bold as to write an editorial about the subject, going as far as to call for the resignation of the Breeders’ Cup board members.
Again, much conversation ensued and all sides of the issue were heard. Interestingly enough, two days later the Breeders’ Cup made a complete turnaround and guaranteed the stakes program would continue in 2009. We would never be so bold as to claim victory, but the Paulick Report is proud to be a small part of the discussion that led to this appropriate outcome.
7. Minor Takes On Magna – In case you missed it, Halsey Minor is not a big fan of Magna Entertainment, Frank Stronach and John Brunetti. But perhaps his least favorite person in the Thoroughbred industry is unknown Magna CFO Blake Tohana. Or perhaps we should say previously unknown after our number seven story hit the pages of the Paulick Report.
Never one to mince words, Minor holds nothing back in his description of his conversation with Tohana. Not surprisingly, Tohana didn’t have a glowing opinion of Minor and let us know about it.
Since then, Minor has continued in his quest to buy a racetrack as he tries to help the sport he loves. As for Tohana? Well, we haven’t heard much from him recently and we imagine that’s the way he prefers it.
6. Bloodhorse President Hits Below The Belt – Sundays are usually slow news days in the world of the Paulick Report, especially in December. However, all of that changed when we received an email from an old friend. Stacy Bearse, President of the Blood-Horse and Ray’s former boss, expressed his “concerns” about the accuracy of his reporting when it came to recent Blood-Horse layoffs. While we encourage dissent on our pages, the language Mr. Bearse used was too colorful not to share and the consensus among our readers determined it language unbecoming the president of the largest trade publication in the business.
Regardless of his less than courteous tone with Ray, we have yet to receive a list of facts we got wrong in the stories at question. We are big enough to admit when we are wrong.
5. Thoroughbred Times Rip Off – So a funny thing happened on the way to breaking the past post betting scandal. The Thoroughbred Times just happened to write a piece on the same subject a few hours after we broke a story that had been in hiding for several days. Much to our dismay, the Paulick Report was not mentioned or given attribution credit. One thing Ray doesn’t like is when someone steals his scoop and he let Frank Angst and the Thoroughbred Times know all about it. And you let them know that you were interested in the behind the scenes aspect of Thoroughbred journalism by making this one of the most trafficked stories of 2008.
4. Guest Editorial Ed Whitfield – A companion piece to Fred Pope’s aforementioned speech, Congressman Ed Whitfield of Kentucky contacted the Paulick Report to help get its message out to our industry. Much like Pope, Congressman Whitfield wants to amend the Interstate Horseracing Act of 1978. Unlike Pope, he proposes using the IHA to impose ethical standards on each state racing body or else revoke their simulcast rights. Whether you agree with him or not, it is clear that Congressman Whitfield understands that solving any problem starts by hitting people where it really hurts…in the pocketbook.
3. Banned Trainer "Suffolk Done Me Dirty" – The closest our pages have come to the Jerry Springer Show, this crazy web of he said/she said ended in the lives of five horses being saved by the Thoroughbred Retirement Fund which is all that really matters. However, we aren’t sure that’s why you enjoyed this story so much.
To give a synopsis of the twists and turns and very questionable explanations in a few sentences would be an impossible task. Instead, we just quote the title again. When trainer in question Pam Pompell was asked how she felt about Suffolk Downs, she said in an interview to the Paulick Report “Suffolk done me dirty.” Do you really need anything more?
2. Sadler Mullins Take Leave From Trainers Board – With drug use being the top issue of 2008, John Sadler and Jeff Mullins’ voluntary leaves of absence from the California Thoroughbred Trainers board raised more than a few eyebrows.
The CHRB phased in a new steroids testing program in July. For the first month, positive tests would not be treated as violations and for the second month, positives would be reported as violations but not penalized. It was during these two months that according to the Thoroughbred Times, Sadler had accounted for 18 of the 38 positive tests and Mullins’ hands were sullied as well. They became poster boys for an industry trying to change its ways when it comes to drug use. Only time will tell if the sins of the past will be washed away.
1. Ray Paulick Live From Capitol HIll – In only our second week of existence, the Paulick Report flew Ray economy class to Washington DC and put him up in a fancy Motel 6 so he would be rested and ready to report on what was likely the biggest non-racing event of the year.
While there were other journalists reporting on the daily happenings, the Paulick Report was the only platform giving up to the second updates on the hearings. It was the beginning of what has become a regular feature here as we have live blogged several events since. Unfortunately, we are unable to refund the productivity lost by companies all across the country whose employees were following the hearing online instead of working. Fortunately, all of racing’s problems were solved in those two sessions and 2009 will be the best year ever in racing. (We can hope, can’t we?)
Finally, tomorrow is Christmas and whether you celebrate that holiday or you have other plans, it is definitely a universal time for reflection. The last six months have been quite a ride for the Paulick Report. We have more than doubled our daily audience, anonymous donors have stepped up to fill the gaps and advertisers have jumped onboard even in the first few months when the traffic wasn’t near what it is today.
To our advertisers, we would like to thank you from the bottom of our hearts for stepping out and lending the Paulick Report your good name as well as trusting that your investment would pay off. Please be sure to frequent Liberation Farm, North American Trainer Magazine, Team Valor, M & M Thoroughbreds, TVG, Stonestreet Farms, Lost In The Fog, BetFastNow, That’s Racing and BetAmerica. They have stepped up by publicly supporting us and for that they deserve your support.
To our donors, your generous support has also helped us fill in the gaps and make it possible to bring the consistent quality you have come to expect on the pages of the Paulick Report. We would not be here today without you. (Plus, our families would not have received any Christmas presents this year!)
And finally, we would like to give a big thank you to those of you who check in on a daily or weekly basis to see what is going on in the industry. We hope you have found the Paulick Report to offer a brand of reporting not very often seen in the Thoroughbred industry. Please continue to tell your friends about the breaking news and hard journalism found on our pages each and every week.
I would also like to thank Ray for his unrelenting pursuit for truth and his thirst for strong, ethical journalism. Whether you agree with his viewpoints or not, he is relentless in his passion to help the sport he loves through this difficult time. His work ethic is unmatched and we are all fortunate to have a person of his integrity and skill willing to take a chance with the Paulick Report.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year,
Brad Cummings
Associate Publisher
Paulick Report
Tags: Paulick Report, PaulickReport.com, Ray Paulick, ray paulick paulick report, Year In Review
Posted in Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, Uncategorized, Year In Review | 8 Comments »
Sunday, December 14th, 2008
By Ray Paulick
Friday’s Paulick Report article on the increasingly sad state of affairs at Bloodhorse magazine was not easy for me to write, having worked hard to help grow the company over a 15-year period and feeling tremendous sadness that many of my former Bloodhorse colleagues are now without jobs. It’s a very stressful time for those who remain employed there as they deal with changing readership habits, stronger competition and challenging economic circumstances that have brought many traditional print publishers to their knees.
This morning, I was enjoying a cup of tea in preparation for Christmas tree shopping with my daughter when an email of great interest came across my inbox from an old friend at the Bloodhorse. The email’s subject was ‘Bloodhorse (sic) Staff Cut 10%’ penned by company president Stacy Bearse. I didn’t realize how stressful things had gotten until I received this email from the man who hired me as editor in chief of the magazine in 1992 and fired me in 2007. The email, shown below in its entirety, was typed in big, bold face letters:
You wrote a truly shitty column on your alma mater, Crack Pipe. As usual, you got your facts all wrong (Purple Haze?). The more you embarrass yourself with this type of drivel, the more I realize the tragedy of a life and career wasted.
Stacy
Immediately, I checked the email address assuming it must be from a dummy account by an enemy of Stacy trying to frame him. After all, he couldn’t possibly have such terrible judgment as to send me something so vicious and mean-spirited. Alas, it was from sbearse@bloodhorse.com, his business email account.
My first and strongest reaction to these highly personal attacks from him was sadness. When I entered a recovery program in 2004 to deal with a personal issue, one of the spiritual principles I learned was to pray for those who may want to hurt you, in hopes that they can learn to see you in a different light. I’ll say my prayers tonight for Mr. Bearse, who is quite obviously going through a difficult period in his professional tenure at Bloodhorse Publications.
It is also troubling that a man who holds such a prestigious position in our industry would stoop to the level of a sideshow like Ed Musselman, the publisher of the Indian Charlie newsletter. The rants and vicious personal attacks of Indian Charlie are par for the course, but Bearse represents a far more respectable organization and I have always held him to a higher level of accountability.
Earlier this week, Bearse wrote a letter to the Thoroughbred advertising community explaining the company’s current difficulties that led to a $1.5 million budget cut and what he said was termination of 10% of the staff. It was written in a much softer tone than he exhibited with me but one with thinly veiled attacks on the company’s publishing competitors, presumably the Thoroughbred Daily News and Thoroughbred Times, two outfits that so far have weathered the economic storm without having to take the drastic measures that Bloodhorse has.
“First, we never compete with you. Unlike other media properties, we own neither seasons nor shares in stallions that may compete with your business.” This seems to be a reference to the Thoroughbred Daily News, a purely online publication produced by Barry Weisbord, who is an active Thoroughbred owner and breeder. So while this claim may be true, why does it matter? To my knowledge, Weisbord has been completely fair to any and all advertisers and this would explain why they have such a full booking of ads each and every day. Additionally, Bearse several years ago was involved in weanling-to-yearling pinhooking partnerships, so his assertion rings a bit hollow.
But perhaps most confusing is their contention that giving ‘special discounts’ to ‘special people’ on advertising is a bad thing. Assuming this dagger must be intended for the Thoroughbred Times, I still don’t understand the message. Isn’t it a good thing to thank loyal customers by offering them discounts or perks for their consistent business? I believe that’s the psychology behind the personal shopper cards at grocery stores, the reason I get a free bag of dog food after I buy 12 at Feeder’s Supply (it’s for my dog, not me), and how I am about to be named the next U.S. Senator of Illinois by Gov. Rod Blagojevich (the check’s in the mail, Rod!).
The Thoroughbred industry is facing tough times ahead. It’s a competitive business, whether it’s your horse racing against someone else’s or your magazine or web site trying to win advertising support over your rival. The Paulick Report will continue to provide unfiltered coverage on the business in ways that may not always please everyone.
One thing I believe we all can agree to is a wish for the Thoroughbred industry to regain its legs in 2009 and carry us all to a higher plateau.
Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report
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Tags: Barry Weisbord, blood-horse, bloodhorse magazine, ed musselman, indian charlie, Paulick Report, Ray Paulick, stacy bearse, tdn, thoroughbred daily news, thoroughbred times
Posted in People, Racing Media, Ray Paulick, bloodhorse | 46 Comments »
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