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Top to bottom, this may not be the most talented group of Breeders’ Cup horses that’s ever been assembled, but it’s the biggest handicapping challenge I can ever recall, especially considering new races like the Marathon, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile and Juvenile Turf.

As mentioned yesterday, the Breeders’ Cup Web site has loads of good information, including race schedules and post times, wagering menu, free Equibase past performances, a useful wagering calculator, a list of simulcast locations and advice for beginners. You can bet the Breeders’ Cup races through any of the approved account wagering companies.

My handicapping philosophy is to beat the favorite whenever possible, since the average percentage of winning favorites is around 33%. You might discern from the following selections that I think the Europeans are going to have a big day on Saturday. The factors leading me to believe that will be true are 1) the synthetic surface that some Europeans train on; 2) the tighter medication rules that specifically ban anabolic steroids for the first time; 3) the quality of European horses being sent to this year’s event.

Here’s my advance prognostication on the day’s nine championship races. Good luck and safe racing to all.

Special note: please be sure to check back in to the Paulick Report, beginning around 3 p.m.  Eastern, for my live blog of Filly Friday. I’ll also be live blogging Saturday’s nine races, beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern.

Marathon
This looks like a two-horse race between European runner Sixties Icon and Zappa (whose namesake, the late rocker Frank Zappa, was the founder of the Mothers of Invention and was a real-life sixties icon).  That works for me, but it’s an all chalk exacta. I give the edge to Sixties Icon, in part because of jockey Frankie Dettori’s experience edge at mile and a half races. Zappa is sharp and may try to steal the race under Garrett Gomez. Muhannak has plenty of synthetic track experience in Europe and likes the distance. Cedar Mountain  will be closing late.

Selections: 1-Sixties Icon 2-Zappa 3-Muhannak 4- Cedar Mountain

Turf Sprint
One of the great things about the Breeders’ Cup is finding a horse you absolutely love and then discovering that it’s a longshot. That’s the case with Only Answer, a French-based filly in the care of the legendary horseman Andre Fabre, who is in top echelon of Breeders’ Cup trainers. I think she has an excellent chance to beat the boys in this spot, and Santa Anita’s ace morning line maker Jeff Tufts has her pegged at 20-1 on the morning line. Jockey Olivier Peslier, in my opinion, is as good a big-race rider as there is in the world, and he knows this filly well. The downhill turf course is a tricky one for horse and rider, with the run across the main track causing difficulty for some. It’s one of the best “horses for the course” plays in racing, which makes local runners California Flag and Get Funky formidable challengers in here. Fleeting Spirit has a lot of class, as does Diabolical, either of whom are good enough on their best days to win. I’m going for the price play.

Selections: 1-Only Answer 2-Fleeting Spirit 3-Get Funky 4-Diabolical

Dirt Mile
The status of Mast Track is in doubt as I write this, and I would be very surprised if trainer and owner Robert Frankel runs him on Saturday. If he is scratched, that’s going to make things a lot easier for Well Armed, a Tiznow gelding who seems to have found a perfect spot here, though I’d prefer  him to have drawn more of an inside post position. The Eoin Harty runner can go to the lead or rate, depending on the circumstances, and the mile distance suits him perfectly. Surf Cat should be more effective at this distance, too, after running dull races in his last two starts. Bruce Headley has tightened the veteran up with some quick works. No one seems to have more confidence in his horse than Wayne Catalano, and there’s a lot to like about Lewis Michael, who grabs the advantageous rail post. Pyro’s a tough one to assess in here. His only synthetic track try at Keeneland was a disaster, but all synthetic tracks aren’t the same.

Selections: 1-Well Armed 2-Surf Cat 3-Lewis Michael 4-Pyro

Turf Mile
Irish-bred filly Goldikova has made few mistakes in her eight-race career for French trainer Freddie Head, who has enough confidence to run her against colts here at her best distance. She’s drawn perfectly in the four post and has big-race rider Olivier Peslier in the saddle. It’s not the strongest Mile field we’ve seen. Shakis is a game old-timer who always finishes with a rush. If Alan Garcia can avoid traffic problems from the rail, he won’t be far away at the finish. Kip Deville ran a puzzler last time out in Canada on a yielding track for Rick Dutrow. I’d throw that race out as he goes for a defense of his crown. U S Ranger doesn’t win very many but usually gets up for a share of the money and has been facing tough company all year. Whatsthescript got an impossible post position on the outside.

Selections: 1-Goldikova 2-Shakis 3-Kip Deville 4-U S Ranger

Juvenile
Post positions really come into play here, with the two horses I like the most, Bushranger and Midshipman, drawn way outside, a distinct disadvantage in the relatively short run to the first turn. Munnings, who has chased juvenile division leader Vineyard Haven (not entered in the Breeders’ Cup by trainer Robert Frankel) in his last two starts, draws the much friendlier rail post for his first try around two turns. That’s enough to give him the edge in this spot for trainer Todd Pletcher, especially in a race without much early speed. The son of Speightstown should get the best trip under John Velazquez. Bushranger  may be the best horse and he’ll have to be overcome his 11 post. Street Hero has been steady since breaking his maiden in June and remains in top form for Myung Kwon Cho.

Juvenile Turf
Westphalia looks to me like the obvious choice here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is bet down to near favoritism from his 5-1 morning line. He’s in top form and has had a bit of a rest since his last win at Doncaster in mid-September. Coronet of a Baron obviously has is precocious and talented, and the shift from synthetic to turf by trainer Eoin Harty is an interesting move. Darley already has Midshipman going in the Juvenile and this gives them a good chance to sweep the two races. Of course, arch-rival Coolmore has Bushranger in the Juvenile and Westphalia in here, giving them a strong hand as well. The Darley-Coolmore rivalry will be interesting to follow throughout the two days. Bittel Road is unbeaten on turf and is the morning line choice, but he hasn’t seen this kind of competition yet. Donativum is in the more than capable hands of trainer John Gosden, who knows how to have a horse at peak form when it matters most.

Selections: 1-Westphalia 2-Coronet of a Baron 3-Bittel Road 4-Donativum

Sprint
Smallest number of runners in this race since 1986, obviously a byproduct of two new races: the Filly and Mare Sprint and Dirt Mile. I doubt that defending champ Midnight Lute scared anyone away based on his only start of the year, a dismal 10^th in the Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. He’s worked sensationally for Bob Baffert since then, but it’s hard to see him up sharp enough to beat the likes of Street Boss or In Summation. I give the clear nod here to the California horses, led by the Bruce Headley-trained Street Boss. My intuition tells me Bruce Headley didn’t have the son of Street Cry cranked to the max for the Ancient Title when second to Cost of Freedom, and recent works suggest he’s ready to roll here. In Summation is a thorough professional who can be counted on to run his race. Midnight Lute will be running late. Fatal Bullet has the best chance of upsetting the local horses’ applecart.

Selections: 1-Street Boss 2- In Summation 3-Midnight Lute 4-Fatal Bullet

Turf
While Europe’s bigshots were locking horns in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 5, Mike de Kock was bringing the top-class Eagle Mountain back to the races from a fractured pelvis and year layoff at Newmarket. The Rock of Gibraltor colt won the comeback, a Group 3 race at Newmarket, and some big money subsequently came in on the horse with a British bookmaker  to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The former Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien runner looked sharp in a morning spin at Santa Anita is primed for a big effort. Soldier of Fortune comes off a hard-fought defeat for O’Brien in the Arc. That was just his third race of the year and he might have another good one in him. Winchester turned in a monstrous performance at Arlington Park to win the Secretariat for Dermot Weld, far surpassing his European form. This is a big step up, but he showed a fondness for American style racing in that effort. Conduit completes my all- European superfecta. American turf horses appear weak again this year, but let’s not forget how English Channel romped in the 2007 Turf over supposedly superior Europeans.

Selections: 1-Eagle Mountain 2-Soldier of Fortune 3-Winchester 4-Conduit

Classic
By the time the finale rolls around, we should have a pretty good idea how European turf horses have adapted to Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride surface. I don’t have the benefit of knowing that right now, so I can only speculate how Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass will take to the track. But I guess we can say the same thing about Curlin, who has trained well on the track but never raced on a synthetic strip. Curlin may be the best horse we’ve seen in the last 10 years, in terms of his accomplishments if not his brilliance. But based on his last two victories over relatively weak competition, I think he’s beatable here. But who will beat him? Go Between, a synthetic track specialist who’s logged thousands of miles this year going from coast to coast? Casino Drive, the unbeaten but lightly raced, Japanese-trained sibling to two previous Belmont Stakes winners? Colonel John, the best 3-year-old in training following the retirement of Big Brown? The Aidan O’Brien duo of Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator, who have combined for nine Group 1 victories on European turf this year? All have a realistic chance, but I’m taking the John Gosden-trained Raven’s Pass for the upset under Frankie Dettori. The Elusive Quality 3-year-old colt hasn’t gone beyond a mile, but Gosden knows from his previous experience in California that most top-class Europeans can stretch their ability out in the U.S. Raven’s Pass  has had a month off since defeating Henrythenavigator in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and is in absolute top form. Curlin will run hard as always, but he’s had a long year for trainer Steve Asmussen. Go Between is a steady performer for Mott, who’s handled him intelligently all year. Colonel John may be the best 3-year-old, but the jury is still out on how good this year’s sophomore crop really is.

Selections: 1-Raven’s Pass 2-Curlin 3-Go Between 4-Colonel John

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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Cash in a couple of T-bills and get ready to make some serious, if not totally sound, investments on this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships. You’re sure to at least have some fun, which is more than you’ve had watching the Dow Jones Industrial Average the last several weeks.

The Breeders’ Cup betting menu has my head spinning with win, place and show wagers, exactas, trifectas, superfectas (at a dime a pop!), daily doubles, picks threes, pick fours, pick sixes, and even a couple of super high fives. If math isn’t your strong suit, Breeders’ Cup officials have even put together a special wagering calculator to see how much some of those bets will cost. They’re even offering free past performances, courtesy of Equibase. All account wagering companies will be taking bets or you can go to your local simulcast outlet. If you’re a novice, read some of these helpful handicapping hints.

For those interested in other people’s opinions, I’ve handicapped Friday’s races below (check back on Friday to get the Paulick Report lowdown on Saturday’s nine Breeders’ Cup races). I cut my teeth handicapping on the West Coast for eight years with Daily Racing Form in the 1980s, and have covered 22 of the 24 Breeders’ Cups . But it’s not widely known that I began my career in the business as an underaged jockey riding competitively on the Northern Illinois bush-corral circuit!

I’ve used all of my pari-mutuel winnings over the years for a vacation home in the Grand Caymans … which is still in the planning stages!

California-based horses will have a built-in advantage, not so much because of the track but because of the climate. Many horses coming in from colder regions have a hard time adapting.

Remember … bet early and often! I’m pretty sure I’ve got five straight winners here … but, please, tell me where I’m wrong!

Selections: 1- Consequence 2-Laragh 3-April Pride 4-Heart Shaped

Selections: 1- Stardom Bound 2-Be Smart 3-Doremifasollatido 4-Pursuit of Glory

FILLY & MARE TURF
Halfway to Heaven looks to have the perfect running style for this year’s edition of the Filly & Mare Turf: enough speed to either take the early lead or sit just off the pace and pounce when called upon by Johnny Murtagh. This looks like a deep field with the likes of course specialist Wait a While and ultra-consistent Mauralakana, but my suspicion is that the Europeans are superior to the home team. My biggest concern with Halfway to Heaven is if she might be “over the top” with six starts this year and a race in early October. I’m throwing another 3-year-old filly, Visit, into the mix for my exotic bets. She’s never gone this far, but a mile and quarter on the Santa Anita turf isn’t nearly as demanding as it is in Europe, and I always respect horses trained by Michael Stoute (racing’s Fred Flintstone lookalike). Can Folk Opera complete a European sweep in the trifecta? That’s where my money will be.

Selections: 1- Halfway to Heaven 2-Visit 3-Folk Opera 4-Wait a While

LADIES’ CLASSIC
The plan is to be so far ahead of the game by the time the Ladies’ Classic field enters the starting gate (around 6:15 p.m. Eastern), we are tempted to sit this one out and enjoy the sheer perfection of Zenyatta. But since we plan to be playing with other people’s money, let’s take a shot that the heaviest favorite on the day can be beaten. If there is an upset, I think it will be the only 3-year-old in the field, Music Note, who hasn’t stepped out of her division yet in stakes competition (though she beat a field of older mares in an allowance race in May). Her Gazelle win was nothing more than a public workout, and she’ll have to step up a bit from there to beat Zenyatta. If she can get an early jump on the favorite at the top of the stretch, she might be able to get the job done. Ginger Punch is tough as nails, but she couldn’t hold off Cocoa Beach in the slop last time out in the Beldame. I think she reverses the decision at Santa Anita but will have to settle for a minor award in defense of her title.

Selections 1-Music Note 2- Zenyatta 3-Ginger Punch 4-Cocoa Beach

Good luck and safe racing to all!

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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The injury was treated at the Central Baptist Hospital emergency room. Stitches were required and doctors told Paulick not to use his right hand for a few days because of possible damage to tendons.

“I can’t believe one klutzy step could wreak such havoc,” Paulick told the Paulick Report. “I was forced to miss both the New York Racing Association out-of-bankruptcy teleconference and the press briefing from Alex Waldrop of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association following his closed-door industry meeting to discuss horse welfare issues. I apologize to the Paulick Report readers for not being able to cover those events

“The injury is going to limit my non-verbal communication skills behind the wheel of a car and slow down my typing and note-taking once I’m able to use my right hand. But thanks to an exceptional, Web-savvy daughter who is assisting me, the Paulick Report will continue to provide the latest news and information to our readers during this brief hiccup.”

The bratwursts were uninjured.

What you won’t hear in the report is how the tentacles of the Jockey Club and some of its individual members strategically reach into various organizations and businesses in an effort to exert control throughout the Thoroughbred industry.

To quote from the book, “The Right Blood: America’s Aristocrats in Thoroughbred Racing,” by Carole Case: “This is a story about money and power, and about a particular group of rich and powerful Americans—the men (and a very few women) of the Jockey Club. With its founding in New York City at the turn of the twentieth century, the Club took the reins of Thoroughbred racing in the United States, and it has never entirely let them go. For more than a century, then, the Jockey Club has dominated horseracing in this country.”

For better or worse, the Jockey Club, which has been ruled since 1982 by chairman Dinny Phipps and vice chairman William S. Farish, has considerable power over the Breeders’ Cup, Keeneland, National Thoroughbred Racing Association, the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association and its American Graded Stakes Committee, Bloodhorse magazine, and the New York Racing Association, among others.

Here’s a quick rundown.

– William Farish’s son, Bill, is the board chairman of the Breeders’ Cup, which before its governance was changed a few years ago, had been tightly controlled by the senior Farish and his longtime friend and horse business partner G. Watts Humphrey. The battle over control of the Breeders’ Cup board has been detailed by previous articles in the Paulick Report..

– The senior Farish replaced Ted Bassett in 2006 as one of the three trustees who oversees Keeneland’s operations. Keeeland’s president, Nick Nicholson, is a former executive with the Jockey Club. There is some speculation that one of the senior Farish’s goals is to expand Keeneland to the point where it can bid to become a permanent host for the Breeders’ Cup, making it the Augusta National of the racing industry.. An expansion is on the drawing board now, with Keeneland making a possible Breeders’ Cup bid as early as 2011.

– The NTRA board is populated by several Jockey Club members, including Humphrey and Robert Clay, plus Jockey Club president Marzelli, and three racetrack executives — Nicholson of Keeneland, Bob Elliston of Turfway Park (owned in part by Keeneland), and Charles Hayward of the New York Racing Association, which has been controlled by Phipps for more than 30 years. At one point, the NTRA and Jockey Club shared office space in New York.

– The Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association has had some semblance of independence from the Jockey Club in recent years, through its chairman, Bill Casner, who is not a Jockey Club member but has been asked to speak at Sunday’s Round Table. Casner was recently succeeded by Reynolds Bell, currently a steward of the Jockey Club and a bloodstock agent whose major client is Farish’s Lane’s End Farm. Dell Hancock, whose family’s Claiborne Farm boards the Phipps family mares, served as chair of the American Graded Stakes Committee until recently being succeeded by Peter Willmot. Steve Duncker, currently the board chairman of NYRA, was a previous Graded Stakes Commiteee chair.

– Stuart Janney is chairman of Bloodhorse magazine, whose board also includes Bill Farish, G. Watts Humphrey, D.G. Van Clief, and Antony Beck—all Jockey Club members with the exception of Beck, who is very close friends with Bill Farish. Janney is a Jockey Club steward, a cousin of Dinny Phipps, and chairman of Bessemer Trust, the company founded by Phipps’ great-grandfather. He succeeded Humphrey as chairman, who in turn succeeded Bayard Sharp, Farish’s late father-in-law.

– The New York Racing Association’s close relationship with the Jockey Club is no secret. Its tracks serve as playgrounds for many Jockey Club members, most notably Dinny Phipps, who has the most desired finish line boxes at the NYRA tracks. The Jockey Club even has offices at the New York tracks. The Jockey Club once officially ruled New York racing, but lost its official control when a horseman named Jule Fink went to court after being denied an owner’s license. NYRA’s board is populated with Jockey Club members, and its chairman, Steve Duncker, like most chairman before him, is a member of the Club as well.

The tentacles clearly reach into breed associations, regulatory agencies and other organizations throughout racing and breeding.

What isn’t clear is why the Jockey Club, led by its chairman and vice chairman, wants so desperately to control the industry, and what they plan to do with that control.

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