Archive for the ‘Paulick Report’ Category

By Ray Paulick
Perhaps it’s more hope than optimism, but the second annual poll of Paulick Report readers looking ahead to the new year suggests a belief that the Thoroughbred industry may have better days ahead—or at least may have hit bottom in 2009.

When we first asked readers in late 2008 if the new year was going to be better, worse or about the same as the year just ending for the Thoroughbred industry, the pessimism was palpable, and well-founded. Only 24% of those responding thought 2009 would be a “better” year than 2008, while 52% said it would be a “worse” year. Twenty-four percent thought it would be “about the same.”

The pessimists were right, at least concerning the economics of the industry. As calendar pages were flipped from December 2008 to January 2009, there were multiple crises: the Breeders’ Cup was in turmoil over its cash reserves and governance issues; the late-season breeding stock sales were in free-fall to the point many in-foal mares brought prices that didn’t even cover the stud fees their breeders owed; pari-mutuel handle had declined significantly; Magna Entertainment, the largest racetrack ownership company, was in deep trouble and filed for bankruptcy in March.

Some but not all of the racing industry’s problems were related to the general economic crisis, a situation that may have stabilized somewhat over the past few months.

So when we asked the same forward-looking question of Paulick Report readers last week, there was a tepid increase in optimism but, perhaps just as important, a more sizeable decrease in pessimism. The percentage of respondents who said 2010 would be “better” than 2009 rose from 24% to 30%, while the percentage who felt the upcoming year would be “worse” fell from 52% to 39%. Thirty-one percent believe 2010 will be “about the same” as 2009.

There remain significant challenges: breeders selling yearlings in 2010 are going into a soft market with horses produced from record-level stud fees in 2008. Some banks are moving out of equine lending and calling in credit lines. On the racing side, there has been no resolution concerning the ownership of Magna’s biggest racetracks, Santa Anita Park, Gulfstream Park and the Maryland Jockey Club. The New York Racing Association has said it may run out of money before summer.

Not all the news in 2009 was bad. Bloodstock markets were down generally, though many breeders were braced for worse results than they experienced. November’s weanling market, in particular, was stronger than expected, and international investment played a key role.

The game’s resilience and appeal were never more evident than in 2009, when 3-year-old filly Rachel Alexandra and 5-year-old Zenyatta turned in performances for the ages. When we no longer have horses that stir our emotions, then, perhaps, all hope has ended. Fortunately, that isn’t the case.

Paulick’s Predictions: My view of the upcoming year is that we will see further retraction in mares bred, in the number of races offered in North America, and in total pari-mutuel handle. (Year-end betting figures for 2009, expected to be announced tomorrow or Thursday, are likely to show a 10% decrease from  2008, the second consecutive annual decline of $1 billion. Declines in 2010 will be much smaller.)

As the economy slowly improves and investment markets continue to rebound, the prospects for additional money coming into 2-year-old and yearling sales are much better. Ownership issues of the Magna tracks will be resolved (it is likely Frank Stronach will manage to retain control of Santa Anita Park and Gulfstream Park), and the long-delayed VLT issue at Aqueduct will finally be determined. Texas will edge closer to expanded gaming, but Kentucky’s Republican politicians will continue to keep their heads in the sand, setting up explosive and expensive re-election campaigns in the fall.

That’s not all good news, but it’s not all bad, either, especially looking back on the year that just ended.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

Savvy businesses recognize value. Advertise in the Paulick Report.

Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick

So two bloggers walk into a blog bar…well actually according to Paulick Report favorite Pull The Pocket there were twelve bloggers that helped build the traffic on his oftentimes witty, always topical racing blog. A very funny look at the personalities of some of the most prominent bloggers in the industry, we are happy to highlight an incredibly creative entry. And personally, I enjoyed the Kevin Bacon - Footloose theme of Ray’s thru-line. Any chance to poke a little fun at Paulick is a chance well taken in my book!

For those still on the fence about Ray’s similarity to the Bacon man, see below. And for the aforementioned blog, click here.

- Bradford Cummings

By Bradford Cummings
It is amazing what a difference a year makes at the Paulick Report. Traffic has more than doubled, debate is livelier than ever and Ray has pledged to stop talking about jet lag. (I’ll believe it when I see it…or don’t see it) We made a cross-country trip to the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita and raised $75,000 for two great causes in the process. Ray flew to South Africa on the premise that some horse people actually wanted to hear what he had to say, then later to Japan (where apparently he and David Hasselhoff are quite well known), where he took in some very exciting racing. And we have been blessed to have such a strong stable of supportive advertisers who believe in the mission we set off to accomplish in June of 2008. Perhaps most remarkably, we started a business two months before the largest recession since FDR and we are still kicking.

In what is turning into a tradition (if you can call twice a tradition) we are looking back at the year that was and rehashing the top ten stories based on reader interest. Basically, the more you clicked on these stories, the higher up the list they traveled. So take a trip down memory lane with us and let us know which stories still resonate with you today. Or let us know about a story that touched you we don’t have here. Because sometimes even 1.5 million user sessions can be wrong.

10. McLaughlin Horses Allegedly Test for Banned Substance in KY

In a year where horse racing started to admit it has a drug problem, it was disheartening to learn that Kiaran McLaughlin was a new member on the list of medication violators. A trainer that featured prominently on our American Graded Stakes Standings brought to you by Keeneland, McLaughlin had become a bit of a Paulick Report favorite as a successful trainer who found himself a bit under the national radar. Unfortunately for him, if his standing in Graded Stakes wins didn’t do it, our tenth most popular story of the year did.

9. Equibase Strikes Out

Perhaps no organization has had the upward trend on the Paulick Report that Equibase has experienced. In what was the most popular story on the Thoroughbred Racing Associations/Jockey Club-owned statistics company, we compared what Equibase provides versus what other major sports give their fans in the way of data. Unfortunately, the comparisons were not favorable as this industry seems content to charge its loyal customers for everything from parking to the very data Major League Baseball, the NFL and the NBA make readily available for its fans.

But whether it was the Paulick Report or an internal struggle that finally made its way to the light of day, Equibase started to get it right and quickly saw their headlines become more favorable. Equibase Takes Step in Right Direction and Equibase Gets It Right is more along the lines of what we’d like to write about. Keep up the momentum.

8. When It Comes to Douglas, Racing Stewards Share the Blame

Any time a jockey is paralyzed, it is an unspeakable tragedy. We saw it first hand on several occasions during our Breeders’ Cup or Bust fundraising tour when we had the opportunity to spend time with several permanently disabled riders. In a precursor to our decision to take on such a trip, Rene Douglas, the top rider at Arlington Park, was severely injured in a spill at the Chicago track when a horse ridden by Jamie Theriot brushed his mount in a move that stewards rarely penalize a rider for. Ray’s point was that stewards should keep a tighter rein on the race riding that goes on and far too often can lead to clipped heels and spills. By doing the best job they can do, stewards can help protect jockeys from serious injury.

7. Ziadie Blames Drug Violations on ‘Chaos’

What do you get when you combine a 60-day suspension for your 13th medication violation in Florida since 2004 with a rich stakes program at Calder? An opportunity to start four horses if you are legacy trainer Kirk Ziadie. One of several stories this year that were out there for the picking but ignored by the mainstream Thoroughbred media, people seemed to be drawn to the laundry list of infractions by this trainer who piles up the wins and medication violations in uncommon numbers.

6. Cullen: Sales Ban Only the Beginning

Know and Trust. That’s the ironic mantra of this Kentucky-based journalist turned bloodstock agent (hey, he’s giving journalism a bad name, if that’s possible!). It’s also the name of one of the horses that Jim Cullen consigned for his overflowing book of clients who have felt taken advantage of over the last several years. The evidence is too large to encapsulate in this brief recap but judging from the amount of people who read this story, you don’t really need a point-by-point description.

The only thing more disturbing than his previous actions was his personal defense, a convoluted web of seemingly nonsensical explanations that never really came close to exonerating him.

We aren’t saying he is the Bernard Madoff the horse industry, but there are some folks plenty mad at him. Oh, and Jim, the fact that Know and Trust ran a good race after this story came out is not newsworthy. It only proves that even a blind squirrel can find an acorn from time to time.

5. Indian Charlie: Racing’s Court Jester

It was a rough year for racing’s court jester, the sometimes funny and consistently offensive Indian Charlie aka Eddie Musselman. While his legal troubles were probably the most noteworthy news to come out of his newsletter in years, the readers of the Paulick Report really enjoyed reading the Indian Charlie parody being distributed on the grounds of the Keeneland September sale.

Who did the parody? We honestly have no idea. But at least it helped give what was a torturous sale a bit of levity.

4. Live Blogging: Kentucky Senate Committee Slots Hearing

The biggest news in Kentucky racing this year was by far the unsuccessful push for slots at racetracks through the state House and Senate. While it got narrow approval in the House, Gov. Steve Beshear’s slots bill stalled in the Senate’s Appropriations and Revenue Committee, stonewalled by David "Blackjack" Williams and his crew of Republican merry men.

Of course, Ray was there to watch the whole thing happen and reported live from Frankfort. Real time blogging, it’s the greatest thing since slots at the racetra…er…never mind.

3. Van Driver: Paraneck Horses Were ‘Walking Skeletons’

Not the way any website wants to experience a spike in traffic, but Ray was the first to uncover the absolute travesty that was the lice-infested and under-nourished stable of horses at Paraneck Stables in upstate New York. The pictures are gruesome and the effects of this tragedy are still being felt as horse welfare groups from around the country are trying to find homes for these truly victimized animals.

2. Live Blog: Mr. Paulick Goes to the Eclipse Awards

A man of many talents, Ray Paulick pulled off a feat of unprecedented magnitude…he live blogged the Eclipse Awards without a computer! Transmitting his thoughts and some appetizing pictures (we’re all still craving that dessert with the chocolate sticks on top) via his cell phone, Ray was able to give moment by moment updates to all of those people on the "tubes" who weren’t able to watch the TVG telecast. And looking at the number of comments and readers, that was no trivial number.

For those of you wondering, Barbara and I have since made up after she took offense to my comment about the shininess of Steve Asmussen. Love it or hate it, we call them like we see them here at the Paulick Report.

1. Hollywood Park Past-Posting Incident Under Investigation

At first blush, we were a little shocked that this story was number one. A past-posting incident, while surely problematic, is not the sexiest of topics. But when you consider it potentially hurt the pocketbooks of thousands of horseplayers across the country and the fact that we were first out of the gate with the story, it makes a whole lot more sense. Wouldn’t it be nice if the propeller heads at the tote companies were able to figure out how to stop betting when a race begins?

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

Savvy businesses recognize value. Advertise in the Paulick Report.

Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick

New York Times sports writer Joe Drape takes a look at the highlights and low-lights of racing during the ‘aughts’. From the successes of Azeri, Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta to the lows of Barbaro’s breakdown and Big Brown’s chemical enhancements, to some of the Triple Crown near misses, it was a mixed bag of a decade for racing.

Read what Joe has to say here and then come back to the Paulick Report and let us know what you think.

- Bradford Cummings

It’s the end of another year and of course that means a myriad of end-of-the-year top ten lists–or, in some cases, end-of-the-decade lists. As the daily news aggregator for the Paulick Report, I confess all I wanted for Christmas was to not have to spend the next 11 days posting list after list from every corner of the globe. As much fun as they are to read, too much of any good thing becomes more than tedious.

So when our good friend Jessica Chapel (aka Railbird) posted the following blog listing ‘best of’ lists from all the usual suspects, it was like she had become my own personal Santa Claus. For all of your listing needs, we ask you to click here.

P. S. Anyone with expendable income, I still want that Bentley Mulsane. What’s $250,000 between friends? Oh, and slots at Kentucky’s racetracks. Just saying…

- Bradford Cummings

By Ray Paulick
What’s this, good news on a Tuesday? Most Paulick Report readers expect to have to wait until “Good News Friday” for their weekly dose of positive developments from people, places and things in the Thoroughbred world. But some things just can’t wait.

This will be a brief summary, but here is today’s good news:

- First, that’s not a typo you see at the end of the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling sale results sheet from Monday night. All economic indicators were up from the first night of the 2008 sale. The gross receipts of $25,470,000 was up 40.3% from last year, the average of $335,132 increased by 10.7% and the median of $250,000 increased by 6.4%. Better still, the percentage of horses not sold declined to 28% from 29.4% in 2008.

The physical presence of Sheikh Mohammed, friend of the sale company’s new Dubai owner, served as both an economic and morale boost for breeders and consignors of sale yearlings. He supported his own stallions and was the leading buyer—no surprise there—accounting for 21.6% of the total. But his first-night purchases were only slightly higher than what he bought in absentia in 2008 when agent John Ferguson spent $3.1 million to buy yearlings in the sheikh’s name (16% of the first-night total). In other words, this year’s price increases were not caused by one-man.

In the current climate for both the general economy and the Thoroughbred industry, the absence of double digit declines is considered a big win for a horse sale. No one has even considered double-digit price increases. Can they hold up on night two?

– Second, the New York Racing Association has released statistics showing a very positive start to the 2009 Saratoga race meeting. While it’s true that weather plays a big part in the success or failure of the upstate Spa, I think the statistics for the first 12 days (attendance up 4.8%, on-track handle up 8.3%, all sources handle down just 1.7%) can be attributed to more creative and aggressive marketing, a continuously improving Internet strategy and platform compared to years past, and, of course, good racing, with larger fields than the first 12 days of 2008.

As a NYRA press release pointed out, the 1.7% decline is much less than the national 13.4% in July and 10.9% drop since Jan. 1

On the bad news side, the Belmont Park spring meet was not good, with all sources handle down 13.9% and on-track attendance falling 17.2% from 2008.

– Finally, Del Mar got off to a quick start in on-track business, with some new promotions and a record crowd on opening day. Ongoing concerns with breakdowns continue to plague the Southern California track, and off-track business hasn’t reflected the strong on-track numbers.

Still, we’ll take all the good news we can get.

By Ray Paulick
There have been very few dull moments since the Paulick Report was launched one year ago today, June 16, 2008. I guess that’s one of the benefits for a journalist covering an industry in turmoil.

Where to begin? We’ve posted 418 of our own stories, most of them written by me, and have linked to thousands of others published in daily newspapers and trade publications – both of which are going through their own economic crises – and the independent writers who represent about the only growth segment of the industry through their online blogs.

The idea behind the creation of the Paulick Report was to offer independent coverage of an industry that, for the most part, has been given a free pass from the press. We’ve tackled many subjects people in the industry have talked about for years but were left untouched by the media. Foremost among those issues is the leadership that is largely responsible for the problems the industry now faces.

Among other subjects, we’ve examined how the Breeders’ Cup has evolved over the last 25 years, going from a small group of self-appointed leaders to a more democratic process where nominators to the program have a say over who is charge. But the battle for control has been fierce, between the “old guard” led by Will Farish, his son Bill and some close associates, and the “new guard,” represented by people like Bill Casner of WinStar Farm.

Many of the Breeders’ Cup nominators weren’t very happy in December when the organization’s board of directors voted to eliminate the special stakes program supplements that have been a key part of the program since 1984. The Paulick Report covered that story aggressively and accurately, reporting on the significant losses of the Breeders’ Cup’s investment portfolio, which coincided with the decision to eliminate the stakes supplements. The uproar was substantial, and in an unprecedented move, the board quickly reversed its decision and kept the stakes program for at least another year.

We’ve taken a close look at how the Jockey Club, run for years by Dinny Phipps, has tentacles reaching into many other industry organizations in an attempt to control as much of the business as possible. We also reported on how The Jockey Club, whose principal purpose is to be the Thoroughbred breed registry, has built a family of for-profit companies that have done quite well financially at the expense of industry participants.

Another company that has prospered is the Keeneland Association (which we referred to as “Lexington’s Fort Knox” in a two-part series that culminated with the question “Who Owns Keeneland?”) The articles explained how Keeneland took over the sales company from a horsemen’s co-op and has since earned hundreds of millions of dollars, and how the once publicly held shares in Keeneland were acquired by the association over a number of years and are now in the hands of a holding company.

We had fun with some of these stories. When the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association gave its own Sales Integrity Committee an industry service award (the headline was “TOBA gives award to…TOBA”), we called them on it (as if nobody else noticed the self-congratulatory move).

One of the hot-button issues in recent years is medication. Bad news has been abundant in that area (Rick Dutrow was the 2008 Triple Crown poster child for medication and other violations, and several additional high-profile trainers also had horses test positive for prohibited drugs), but there was good news, too. Anabolic steroids, which for years had been one of racing’s dirty little secrets (they were considered a therapeutic drug and were legal in most states), were subjected to strict regulations in many jurisdictions in 2008 and early 2009.

Another significant problem the industry faces is an antiquated tote system owned by three different companies, all of which are for sale. We reported on numerous instances of past-posting, where bettors were allowed to make wagers after races had started and in some cases well after they had been run. Another Paulick Report exclusive focused on how the Jockey Club may get into the tote business with yet another for-profit subsidiary. Stay tuned on that one.

Racetracks provided us with plenty of stories to cover, too. Magna Entertainment, the largest track operator in North America, filed for bankruptcy in March. We reported much earlier on the constantly revolving door of executives who have worked for the company and were terminated at the whim of Magna chairman Frank Stronach. It hasn’t been a stable company at any point in its brief history.

We exposed how Churchill Downs, which has been far more successful than Magna, is trying to squeeze purse revenue by shifting wagers from on-track to its account wagering company, Twin Spires. A feature on the Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Group, which represents various horsemen’s organizations in their negotiations with Churchill and other tracks, provided some good news for horse owners.

The Paulick Report also served as a forum for other writers, including the tireless Fred Pope, the Lexington advertising executive who has been calling the simulcasting model “upside down” because it rewards the bet takers (the site or account wagering company taking wagers on someone else’s race) far more than it does the racetrack and horsemen who staged the race. Pope’s article elicited a record number of responses in the comment section, a unique part of our online publication, which allows the public to sound off on the issues.

We broke our share of stories over the past year: Curlin going to Lane’s End for stud duty; the Ernie Paragallo horse abuse case in New York; the efforts of “old guard” Breeders’ Cup board members to keep NetJets chairman and longtime horse owner and breeder Richard Santulli, along with Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm owner John Sikura, off the organization’s operating board; layoffs at Churchill Downs and Blood-Horse magazine, along with the elimination of several turf writers at big city daily newspapers; Halsey Minor’s efforts to buy Hialeah from John Brunetti, and Minor’s attempt to purchase many of the Magna tracks out of bankruptcy; and the Thoroughbred Owners of California’s decision to bid for Santa Anita from the same bankruptcy proceedings.

Live blogging was an interesting and effective way to cover some of the events and get the news out as it happens: among them were the Congressional hearings into horseracing last June, industry conferences and regulatory meetings, and the Eclipse Awards in January.

Do we have any regrets? Sure, perhaps the tenor of some of the stories were overly critical and sometimes too personal.

But the overwhelming feeling I have for the last year is gratitude. Our readership has more than tripled since our launch, and we have continued to build support from the Thoroughbred advertising community, even though they understand they are not buying favorable coverage with their dollars. It is gratifying that so many businesses support this kind of independent journalism, and we hope those who haven’t will see the benefits of what the Paulick Report offers to the industry.

Thanks to our readers, those who have given us moral or financial support, and our advertisers.

We’re just getting started.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

Savvy businesses recognize value. Advertise in the Paulick Report.

Support the Paulick Report. Make a donation today.

Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick

When horse people are told about demonstrations, they probably think about a salesman or company rep showing them how the newest product or gadget works in order for them to improve their business. But in the proud history of the United States, a different kind of demonstration has been a key part of protest movements that have brought about changes in government policy. The Boston Tea Party may have been America’s first important demonstration, and many others have followed to make this great country what it is. The issues championed by these movements have come from the grassroots as an attempt to right an historical wrong or simply as a means to be heard by those in power.
 
With this in mind, it is understandable that when an industry led by many influential and traditionally entrenched members of society have their moment in the sun to “take to the streets” — as Kentucky’s horse industry will do Wednesday morning at 10 a.m. in the Capitol Rotunda in Frankfort to rally support for expanded gaming at Kentucky racetracks — some confusion as to how to pull off an effective display may ensue.
 
But don’t worry; the Paulick Report will be your guidebook to protesting. Exhaustive research and a personal flashback to the late 1960s protests for equal rights and against the war in Vietnam have given us a list of dos and don’ts for an effective protest to get legislators to understand the importance of leveling the playing field for Kentucky’s horse industry. We aren’t guaranteeing these tips will bring expanded gaming to Kentucky, but with a little knowledge and hard work, at least Wednesday won’t go down in the annals of history with the saggy pants protest in Milwaukee, the naked cyclists against cars in the UK or anything PETA has done in the last 20 years.
 
10 Dos and Don’ts for Wednesday’s Frankfort protest rally

10. Do look presentable - This doesn’t mean you have to show up in your finest Hugo Boss suit, but make sure you at least put on a fresh shirt after cleaning up the morning stalls. And please leave your pitchfork at home. It will be confiscated at the security check.

9. Don’t confuse the cause – Wednesday isn’t your opportunity to save the whales or get tax rebates for those solar panels you installed in March.
 
8. Do call your legislator beforehand and schedule a meeting – After all, they do work for you. To find the name and number of your state representative or senator, click here.
 
7. Don’t show up at a legislator’s office unannounced – While they do work for you, they also work for the other 20,000 people in your district and so they tend to be a bit busy, especially during a controversial special session.
 
6. Do be respectful – Our friends from the Family Foundation will be on the very same steps Tuesday and some may stick around Wednesday to counter protest. No one wants to see John Greathouse slugging it out with Don Ball and his anti-gaming followers – except the Herald-Leader.
 
5. Don’t give ANYTHING to an elected official – You may think presenting David Williams with a horseshoe from your favorite broodmare is just a nice gesture, but Kentucky law strictly prohibits anything that may have the appearance of bribery.
 
4. Do tell everyone about the Paulick Report – We thought we’d try to slip a shameless plug by you! And in all seriousness, we are committed to bringing you the most up to date news on the expanded gaming issue, among others.
 
3. Don’t shoot the messenger – If you are angry at your legislator, don’t take it out on their staff. They are just doing their job and it’s a strong possibility they share a different point of view from their boss.
 
2. Do show passion – No one is going to judge you for shouting too loud or pumping your fist too fervently. Remember, you will be among friends.
 
1. Don’t give up – The worst kind of protest is one that lasts just a day. Make sure you continue to put pressure on legislators. Send them letters, set up future meetings and organize letter to the editor drives in your local papers. Trust us, they read everything written about them!

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

Savvy businesses recognize value. Advertise in the Paulick Report.

Support the Paulick Report. Make a donation today.

Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick

In a week that should have shown little movement in the rankings of the Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment, the Paulick Derby Index has actually shown some fluctuation as co-favorite Quality Road was withdrawn from the race on Monday because of complications resulting from a quarter crack. I Want Revenge, clearly now the favorite among our ballot stuffers, will lead a top ten that has lost some star power with several favorites not making the trip due to injury. That being said, this is still as strong a group as we have seen in years. The Derby this year should be an exciting one to watch with anywhere from 5-10 horses in legitimate contention.
 
You will also notice that the final week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment features only the top ten contenders. We did this to put an onus on the top echelon of the field and make our last list more exclusive.

Finally, due to the fact that all ballots are submitted by 9 PM EST Monday night and well before Square Eddie’s withdrawal, you will see him on several ballots.
 
Will the PDI be the great predictor it portends to be on Saturday? Only time will tell.

1-Pioneerof the Nile. The Kentucky Derby is a tough race to win, even if everything goes your way, and it’s almost impossible for a horse to win if his training has been interrupted. Witness Unbridled’s Song, who battled foot problems coming up to the 1996 Derby, where he might have been the best horse but finished fifth while racing with a bar shoe on the problematic foot. If Quality Road’s connections felt their horse was sound and sent him to Louisville, I would have bet against him, simply because of the interruption in training. Everything has gone perfectly for Pioneerof the Nile: no interruptions in training due to bad weather or nagging injuries, and he is coming up to this race in the best form of his career. The Empire Maker colt has done everything asked of him, and I doubt trainer Bob Baffert would trade places with anybody.

2-I Want Revenge. It’s the horse, stupid. I’m no fan of trainer Jeff Mullins or the IEAH partners that bought into this son of Stephen Got Even, but I do like I Want Revenge. How can you not like a horse that does what he did to win the Wood Memorial after a disastrous start? The race before that, the Gotham Stakes, he showed enough early speed to press the pace and draw off in the stretch to a an easy victory. He is 0-for-2 against Pioneerof the Nile, though his first loss, by a nose in the Cash Call Futurity, was in his first start after breaking his maiden. I think he’ll be the betting favorite, but if Pioneerof the Nile beats I Want Revenge, people will be scratching their heads and wondering why.

3-Dunkirk. Todd Pletcher has kept the son of Unbridled’s Song under the radar, staying in Florida to train while the rest of the field is in Kentucky, and I don’t fault his logic that the track on Derby Day will likely be different from the surface everyone trained on in the weeks leading up to the race. Always seems to be that way. The colt has enormous talent, but there remains that issue of a lack of experience that has stopped many previous Derby contenders with a similar profile.

4-Friesan Fire.  One thing we know: if it rains as expected, and the track is sloppy, Friesan Fire will be one happy horse. The A.P. Indy colt seemed to relish the sloppy Fair Grounds surface while winning the Louisiana Derby in a cakewalk. His training up to the race for Larry Jones has been sensational, and the only thing his resume lacks is a victory over tough competition.

5-Musket Man. Beating Giant Oak in the Illinois Derby was no great accomplishment (doesn’t somebody always beat Giant Oak?), but it’s hard to fault a horse with five wins in six starts. Yonaguska colt seems like the grinder type—not much early speed or quick mid-race acceleration—but if he gets a good enough trip under Eibar Coa I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the top flight at the eighth pole.

6-Papa Clem. Won the Arkansas Derby coming from off the pace, but Smart Strike colt has enough speed to be close up in the early going and maybe even make the lead if no one else wants it. Gary Stute learned from his father, Mel, the West Coast wizard of speed, so a late-week blowout of two or three furlongs might be used to sharpen up Papa Clem after a series of longer works.

7-Chocolate Candy. Has only one way of going, settle in near the back of the field and make a late run, so you know that racing luck will play a role for Candy Ride colt. Hollendorfer has won the Kentucky Oaks twice (Lite Light in 1991 and Pike Place Dancer in1996), proving he can win at the top level of the game while being based in California’s “B  Circuit” in the Bay Area. Training well, but has to have everything go his way for a victory.

8-Advice. Wise guys are asking how a horse that couldn’t win the Sunland Park Derby is going to win the Kentucky Derby.  Real Quiet, who came within a nose of winning the 1998 Triple Crown, couldn’t win in New Mexico, either, finishing third there as a 2-year-old in a pair of races. Advice demonstrated some quality last year, finishing second but DQed and placed third in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and his last to first rally in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes was eye-catching. But races were on Polytrack, however, and he has yet to prove himself on a conventional dirt track (though the same can be said of Pioneerof the Nile).

9-Desert Party. I like the way the son of Street Cry has trained since arriving from Dubai, but I’ve seen previous Godolphin horses looking sharp in the morning before fading on Derby afternoon. If this one is any different, he’ll win without my backing at the windows.

10-Mr. Hot Stuff. Have always thought this Tiznow colt was going to develop into a good one, but it’s taken longer than expected. He’ll be running late in the Derby, but I think he looks more like a Travers winner.

Last weekend was the final opportunity for Derby hopefuls to make their case. As a result, this week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment had two new entries with Square Eddie in a tie for 15th and Advice all alone in the 18th spot. The only other newbie on our list was a vote for Arkansas Derby 3rd place finisher Summer Bird.

Also significant was the tightening between the first and second place contenders I Want Revenge and Quality Road. This narrowing margin is due to Quality Road’s quarter crack not being as concerning as once believed.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. This was written before his first serious workout on the Churchill Downs surface, but I’m sticking with the Empire Maker colt unless and until he shows a complete disdain for dirt in his training up to the Kentucky Derby. Keeping Garrett Gomez in the saddle is a confidence booster because agent Ron Anderson is as sharp as they come.

2-I Want Revenge. Biggest question about Stephen Got Even colt’s two New York wins was who he beat. Not sure there was much quality behind him, but he was right there with Pioneerof the Nile in California and showed he likes the dirt. Versatile running style really a plus and jockey Joe Talamo is wise beyond his years.

3- Quality Road. Mystery horse as far as I’m concerned, because of the quarter crack. But based on that last New York workout and the fact the son of Elusive Quality apparently came out of it in good shape I’ve moved him up a notch over Dunkirk. Will he get the distance?

4-Dunkirk. Could there be a better backup rider to Garrett Gomez than Edgar Prado? No loss there in riding talent. Choice by Gomez and agent Anderson was a tough one, considering they were dealing with two high-powered trainers in Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher and two of the most prominent owners in the game in Ahmed Zayat and the Coolmore operation. Call me old school, but I think the lack of racing experience will go against both Quality Road and Dunkirk.

5-Friesan Fire. Larry Jones seems to have had a pretty well-defined plan for son of A.P. Indy and he’s sticking to it. Another one racing against history with his lengthy gap between races. Working solidly at Keeneland before shipping to Churchill Downs for final preparations.

6-Musket Man. Tampa Bay and Illinois Derby winner got vote of confidence from jockey Eibar Coa, but he’ll be facing a completely different caliber of horse when the Churchill Downs starting gates open.

7-Papa Clem. Smart Strike seems to keep siring one top runner after another, and Papa Clem is moving in the right direction as the first Saturday in May approaches. Gary Stute may be a Kentucky Derby rookie, but he’s no greenhorn, having gotten some big race experience when father Mel had Preakness winner Snow Chief and other top runners during a stellar training career.

8-Chocolate Candy. Interesting that a Santa Anita publicity staff survey of West Coast horsemen found a lot of support for this Candy Ride colt trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Will have a lot of horses to come around at the top of the stretch when he makes his late run.

9-Advice. So what if his Coolmore Lexington win was on a Polytrack surface that has produced so many unpredictable results? He’s an improving colt in good hands who closed like gangbusters to beat a Polytrack-loving Square Eddie.

10-Desert Party. How he trains over the next 10 days will have a lot to say about his chances. It’s a very difficult transition to make, coming from Dubai to Kentucky, and will take a top horse to handle it. I just don’t think he’ll be up to the challenge.