Archive for the ‘Paulick Derby Index’ Category

What are the odds that there would be a tie at the top of any poll with 28 participating voters (unfortunately one of our voters was unable to weigh in this week)? Pretty good, it appears. Unlike other polls out there, the Paulick Derby Index shows a dead lock for first with Rebel Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky and Fountain of Youth victor and likely Florida Derby favorite Eskendereya sharing the top line. And it’s probably pretty appropriate as both horses fought off impressive fields to win their respective prep races.

Speaking of the Rebel Stakes, it was a tale of two finishers in place and show positions. Noble’s Promise’s performance, despite being nosed at the end, shot the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile third-place colt to the number four position this week while wise guy favorite Dublin dropped to nine in our poll. But with the tendency for third-place finishers to be forgotten in polls like these, it is a strong sign of the continued belief in this early favorite as a true Derby contender.

San Felipe wire-to-wire winner Sidney’s Candy rocketed from nineteenth to fifth after an eye-opening outing with second place finisher Interactif getting back on the big board at number twelve. And Tampa Bay Derby winner Odysseus became the new number six while previously unheralded Schoolyard Dreams went from zero votes to fifteenth after being narrowly beaten.

Sadly, early favorite Buddy’s Saint leads the list of those who dropped off our rankings after being pulled from the Derby Trail. The list includes American Lion, Dave in Dixie, A Little Warm and Uptowncharlybrown.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

I don’t think there has been a stronger race for 3-year-olds in 2010 than Saturday’s Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park and I am convinced that the three finishers—winner Lookin At Lucky, runner-up Noble’s Promise and third-place finisher Dublin—will be serious contenders in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby come May 1.

I know the Beyer Speed Figures came up much lower for Lookin At Lucky (97) than they did for last month’s Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya (106), but if the “best” Beyers determined the Derby winner, wouldn’t Andy Beyer, the creator of those figures, have a much better record of picking winners in the Kentucky Derby than he has over the years? I’m not putting the knock on Andy or his figures, because I believe they are a great handicapping tool in day-to-day races. But the Kentucky Derby is unlike any other race on the calendar, and there are a multitude of other factors that have to be considered beyond a simple numeric figure.

The top three Rebel finishers were all Grade 1 winners, and they all ran to their form. Lookin At Lucky had a lot of trouble midway down the backstretch when Robby Albarado aboard Noble’s Promise did some race riding to keep Garrett Gomez and Lucky boxed in and the latter had to jump over his heels to avoid possible disaster. That move displayed Lookin At Lucky’s great athleticism, and his recovery from the incident showed how determined he was to get back into the race and wear Noble’s Promise down at the wear. Dublin was wide most of the way. And Noble’s Promise never stopped running, though for the third consecutive start he finished just behind Lookin At Lucky.

The victory by Odysseus in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby was not visually impressive. The Malibu Moon colt got a good trip but started to fade around the final turn, only to re-rally in deep stretch to snatch the victory from Sam F. Davis runner-up Schoolyard Dreams and front-runner Super Saver, winner of last year’s Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and the only graded stakes winner in the field. I think the front-runners tired more than Odysseus came again. I want to see him face tougher competition before jumping on his bandwagon.

Finally, there was the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, where a strategic decision to take American Lion off the pace virtually gave the race to the front-running Sidney’s Candy, who got away to an uncontested lead and easy fractions throughout. It’s hard to learn much from that kind of a race, but I’ve decided to take Dave in Dixie out of my top 10 after he failed to show any late kick.

1. Eskendereya. If Lookin At Lucky’s Rebel win was so impressive, why have I left Eskendereya on the top of my list? Because I believe the Giant’s Causeway colt is on the way up for trainer Todd Pletcher, while Lookin At Lucky has achieved close to his full potential. We’ll see if he can back that claim up with another strong performance this week in the Florida Derby.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Trainer Bob Baffert said the Smart Strike colt reminds him a lot of Silver Charm—he gives everything he’s got in every start. He proved that in winning the Rebel after the scary incident at the half-mile pole. Baffert hasn’t fully wound up Lookin At Lucky, as the Rebel was his 2010 debut.

3. Noble’s Promise. Cuvee colt proved he’s not just a turf or synthetic track horse, running his eyeballs out in his first try on dirt and in his 2010 debut. I don’t see a lot of stamina in that pedigree (out of a Clever Trick mare), but this is a hard-trying horse in the hands of the very capable Ken McPeek.

4. Dublin. I doubt that trainer Wayne Lukas was discouraged by the Afleet Alex colt’s third-place finish in the Rebel. He was wide all the way and I’m sure Lukas has not brought him to his peak physically in mid-March. Look for further improvement as May 1 approaches.

5. Rule. Roman Ruler colt getting the kid gloves treatment from Pletcher after getting all the graded stakes money he needed as a 2-year-old to crack the Derby line-up.  Possible for Florida Derby but more likely in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

6. Discreetly Mine. Another Pletcher Derby contender, this one pointing for the Louisiana Derby a week from Saturday. Comes off an easy win there in the Risen Star Stakes and will be favored to repeat.

7. Conveyance. Heading to New Mexico for the rich Sunland Park Derby, where Mine That Bird prepped last year. Trainer Baffert has had some success in New Mexico, having sent Real Quiet there en route to his Kentucky Derby victory.

8. Awesome Act. Moved up on my list by virtue of some of the disappointing performances in the San Felipe Stakes. If he can do in the Wood Memorial what he showed in the Gotham Stakes he’ll be a legit contender for British-based trainer Jeremy Noseda.

9. Sidney’s Candy. Tough to gauge how good he is because of the way the San Felipe was run, getting an easy lead and setting soft fractions in his first try around two turns, winning over turf horse Interactif. Candy Ride colt out of a Storm Cat mare is trained by John Sadler, a dominant trainer in California who is little known on the national stage.

10.  Odysseus. Showed determination in deep stretch, getting up to win Tampa Bay Derby after looking like a sure loser at the top of the stretch. Were those front-runners backing up or did Malibu Moon colt find a second wind?

While the top four stayed the same, there were some interesting developments in the Paulick Derby Index brought to you by Vinery LTD. The most obvious was Awesome Act’s giant leap to number nine in our poll. Last week, the British invader did not receive a single vote from our 29-vote panel.

While Alphie’s Bet picked up one 10th-place vote this week, the real winner was Caracortado, whose victory over the Sham Stakes winner in Santa Anita’s Cal Breeders is evidence that there may be more to this horse. Our voters noticed too, moving him up one spot to number five.

Through no recent fault of their own, Connemara and Drosselmeyer were both dropped from the rankings this week. They were replaced with a trio of horses in A Little Warm, Eightyfiveinafifty and Uptowncharlybrown. Each of these horses hold the distinction of only being on one voter’s ballot but placed in the fourth spot, a ranking high enough to find themselves tied at twenty.

Click here for a list of all the 2010 Derby preps and here for the current list of contenders by graded stakes earnings.

Following is Ray Paulick’s analysis and Top 10.

– Bradford Cummings

By Ray Paulick
Sometimes flattery does get you somewhere. In the case of the unbeaten California-bred Caracortado, he was flattered when another Cal-bred, Alphie’s Bet, won last weekend’s Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. Two races earlier in his career, while still a maiden, Alphie’s Bet had finished second to Caracortado in the California Breeders’ Champion Stakes. Caracortado subsequently won the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes to extend his unbeaten string to five and he looks even better now after the Sham. As a result, the son of Cat Dreams moved up several spots on my list of Kentucky Derby contenders.

I try not to get oversold on winners of the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes, no matter how impressive they look, and Awesome Act looked mighty impressive, taking control of the race at the top of the stretch with jockey Julien Leparoux sitting like a statue. This was the first start on dirt for the European import trained by Jeremy Noseda, and the son of Awesome Again proved without a doubt he can handle that surface. I put Awesome Act at No. 10, bumping Buddy’s Saint from the list. Still, of all the Gotham winners since 1953, only Secretariat has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby.
 
A lot of questions will be answered by the big three Triple Crown preps this weekend: the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita, Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn, and Grade 3 Ta mpa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs. Foremost among those questions is how 2009 2-year-old champion Lookin At Lucky will handle dirt for the first time after racing exclusively on synthetic tracks in California when he makes his seasonal debut in the Rebel.

No matter how that question is answered, a lot of Top 10 lists figure to look much different next week following these three big preps than they do today. Here’s my current list of leading contenders:
1. Eskendereya. Giant’s Causeway colt will stay on top of my list till he loses. Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth looked to be the strongest win by a 3-year-old thus far this year.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Son of Smart Strike seems to have a bunch of people training him. There’s been a great deal of second-guessing about those slow workouts, but Bob Baffert knows more about how to get a horse to the Kentucky Derby in the right condition than all his critics combined. Interesting move sending the colt to Arkansas for the Rebel to see how he adapts to dirt.

3. Rule. Has all the graded stakes money he needs to ensure a spot in the starting line-up on the first Saturday in May, but Roman Ruler colts needs to be tested against better competition before then. Trainer Todd Pletcher juggling his 3-year-old stars in hopes of avoiding one another, and has talked about possibly sending Rule to Aqueduct for the Wood.

4. American Lion. Son of Tiznow should be a lot tighter for his second time around two turns this Saturday in the San Felipe after getting a bit tired down the stretch when hooked up in a speed duel with Tiz Chrome in Robert Lewis Stakes.

5. Dave in Dixie. Have always been a sucker for horses that close with the kind of intensity this son of Dixie Union has shown in his races (going back 30 years ago to the Cal-bred Rumbo, who finished second in both the Santa Anita and Hollywood Derbies and only needed an extra furlong  in order to win—at least in my mind—but could do no better than second to Genuine Risk in the Kentucky Derby). Dave in Dixie has looked very good in his works since finishing second to Caracortado in the Lewis and I think is sitting on an upset in the San Felipe.

6. Discreetly Mine. Awaiting the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, where he
cruised to victory last time out in the Grade 2 Risen Star.

7. Caracortado.  Benefited from a perfect trip last time out when rallying to an impressive win in the Robert Lewis, but good horses often can avoid trouble and get the trip because of tractable speed. Am still not fully convinced he’s the real thing.

8. Conveyance. Baffert said the Indian Charlie colt will stay in the U.S. rather than ship to Dubai for the U.A.E Derby and probably opt for the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby next out.

9. Dublin. For this weekend’s Rebel Stakes, son of Afleet Alex has picked up the riding services of Corey Nakatani, who will replace Terry Thompson after a second-place finish to Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes. A good horse in the hands of D. Wayne Lukas at this time of year can spell trouble for all his opponents. Certainly worth watching in the Rebel.

10. Awesome Act.  Looked very good winning the Gotham over a weak field and we really won’t know how good son of Awesome Again is until he gets a stiffer test in the Wood.

By Ray Paulick
Is it just me, or is this year’s Triple Crown trail looking more and more like a Winter Olympics short-track speedskating race, with lots of false starts, problems with the racing surface, unpredictable results, and a narrow focus on two principals from the East and West.
 
In short-track it was Apolo Anton Ohno of the U.S. and Lee Ho-Suk of Korea who seemed to be in contention in every heat. In horse racing, it’s the West’s Bob Baffert and the East’s Todd Pletcher getting most of the exposure.

There are no false starts in horse racing, but there have been several postponements due to weather, the Feb 27 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita being the latest of several races delayed this winter because of rough weather or bad track conditions. The Sham has been rescheduled for this Saturday, the same day the Gotham Stakes takes place at Aqueduct.

(Click here for the schedule of races leading up to the May 1 Kentucky Derby.)

The following weekend is when we should get a much better read on some of the top contenders, in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs, and Santa Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Of particular interest is the Rebel Stakes, where Baffert is pointing 2009 Eclipse Award winner and once-beaten Lookin At Lucky in what would be his debut on a conventional dirt track. All of his previous races have been on synthetics in California. Among his anticipated rivals is the Pletcher-trained Super Saver, winner of last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. Both horses will be making their 2010 debuts.

While Baffert has won three Kentucky Derbys and Pletcher is searching for his first, there’s another trainer with a little Triple Crown experience who could have a say in the outcome of the Rebel. That would be D. Wayne Lukas, who trains Dublin, runner-up to the Baffert-trained Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. The sage turf writer Bill Nack warned me not to overlook Lukas when he has a good one, and the son of Afleet Alex certainly has ability, as shown last year when winning the Hopeful at Saratoga and in his 2010 debut at Oaklawn.

The Tampa Bay Derby has developed into an important prep, too, and of great interest in that race will be Padua Stables Odysseus, winner of a Tampa Bay allowance last month by 15 lengths. The San Felipe will be a chance to sort out the West Coast’s top synthetic runners, but it won’t really answer any questions about their chances of winning on dirt at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report

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The saga of Ahmed Zayat’s Zayat Stables and the Fifth Third Bank that sued the stable took an interesting turn over the weekend when Eskendereya ran away and hid from nine rivals in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Just as Fifth Third was pushing for the authority to take over and manage the Zayat Stable assets, Eskendereya, one of those assets, exploded in value with his overpowering 8 1/2-length victory that vaulted him to the top of numerous rankings of Kentucky Derby contenders, including my own. At this stage of the dispute, it would be difficult to convince a bankruptcy court judge that a bank would do a better job managing a racing stable than the team that Zayat has assembled over the last several years, when he has ranked among the leading owners in North America, retired two top stallion prospects to the breeding shed (multiple Grade 1 winner Zensational and Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile) and developed a leading candidate for the 2010 Kentucky Derby. The bank most recently dropped their demand for a trustee to be appointed to manage the assets.

So Zayat, despite filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, holds some pretty good cards in his hand right now, led by the ace of the stable, Eskendereya, whose value probably increased tenfold with that Fountain of Youth victory.

Under normal circumstances, offers from stallion farms would start flooding in on a horse like Eskendereya, considering how he dismantled a good field and the pedigree he carries (Giant’s Causeway out of a Seattle Slew mare). But if the horse is worth $5 million or more and Zayat decides to sell all or part of him, how much of a dent would that put on the reported $34 million he is said ot owe Fifth Third? Probably not enough to convince Zayat to sell, especially given his personal quest to win big races like the Kentucky Derby. Besides, if Eskendereya runs the table and wins the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown (and we’re not making that prediction), he’s probably worth tens of millions of dollars and closer to bailing Zayat out in one fell swoop.

On the other side of this rather expensive coin is the grim reality that what goes up also can come down. If Eskendereya is worth $5 million today after a Grade 2 victory, what would he be worth if he throws in a clunker next time out and fails to hit the board? Answer: a lot less than what he is worth today.

Zayat is a gambler, both at the betting windows and in the auction ring. He’s gambled tens of millions of dollars that he can increase the value of his bloodstock assets, and I would bet that he will not be willing to sell a cherished property like Eskendereya as long as there is more upside available. His track record in the horse business suggests he does not sell on the way up.

I think it goes without saying Fifth Third would like Zayat to monetize some assets, but he is currently holding the cards. 

Click here for Ray’s Under The Raydar segment

Following is my latest top 10 horses for the Paulick Derby Index:
 
1. Eskendereya. Leader of Todd’s Squad, perhaps the strongest group of horses multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher has ever had in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby, where his futility is well documented. Pletcher will win more than one Derby before his career is over.

2. Lookin At Lucky. Still awaiting the 2009 2-year-old champion’s seasonal debut. Bob Baffert trained the son of Smart Strike cautiously last weekend when rain hitouthern California. If he has no prep on dirt prior to the Kentucky Derby, this one will be tough to gauge.

3. Rule. Pletcher has some time on the sidelines, thanks to the suspension he received as a result of a positive test at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup. He can use the down time to map out a road to the Derby for his various candidates, including this son of Roman Ruler, who has looked good beating up on relatively weak competition.

4. American Lion. Assuming Eoin Harty will keep Tiznow colt on synthetic surfaces until testing him at Churchill Downs. At this stage he looks to be part of a heavy speed brigade among the various contenders.

5. Dave in Dixie. Can’t wait to see this Dixie Union colt’s next start for trainer John Sadler. Finished with a tremendous burst in deep stretch in the Robert Lewis Stakes and figures to improve with racing.

6. Discreetly Mine. Pletcher-trained colt fits the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner in so many ways: a lot of racing experience at two, strong performances in graded stakes, and a pedigree (Mineshaft out of a Private Account mare) that makes you think distance is no problem.

7. Conveyance. Hard to knock an unbeaten horse, and this Indian Charlie colt has been highly regarded from the start; he sold for $240,000 as a yearling and probably brought 10 times more than that when he was purchased privately by Zabeel Racing earlier this year.

8. Dublin. Hopeful winner at Saratoga last summer returned to good form in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, chasing Conveyance to the wire while making up a lot of ground in the final eighth of a mile. That suggests the D. Wayne Lukas-trained son of Afleet Alex will be that much tougher when the distances stretch out.

9. Buddy’s Saint. Son of Saint Liam went from big time to small time in no time with his ninth-place finish in Fountain of Youth. But considering all the trouble the Nashua and Remsen Stakes winner had around the first turn when he was bounced around after rushing up along the rail into a hole that didn’t exist, it’s easy to see how the colt may have gotten discouraged. It’s the kind of race you just draw a line through and hope it wasn’t a reflection of his true ability.

10. Caracortado. Just like with Conveyance, it’s tough to knock perfection. He’s had relatively soft competition until last out in the Robert Lewis, when son of Cat Dream got the perfect trip behind dueling leaders

 Back when magazines mattered, there used to be this thing called the “Sports Illustrated cover jinx.” I’m starting to worry that it might be replaced by the Ray Paulick “Paulick Derby Index jinx.”
 
When we launched the 2010 edition of the Derby Index two weeks ago, my top choice three months out from the Kentucky Derby was Rick Porter’s Winslow Homer, a son of Unbridled’s Song who was coming off a victory in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. I liked the way he made three separate moves in that race and yet still had enough to hold off the favored Jackson Bend, a sign of versatility and maturity. Days later, however, he was off the trail with an injury and off my list.

Last week, Tiz Chrome occupied my top spot, not so much for what he had accomplished in his brief career but for what I thought he would do in last Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. But the son of Tiznow trained by Bob Baffert showed little fight in the final quarter mile of his first race around two turns after jumping out to an early lead.

So I look ahead to this weekend’s Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes with great apprehension as I move Buddy’s Saint to the top of my Derby Index list, and hope he can break the jinx. Following is my newly minted Top 10 in the wake of Caracortado’s upset win in the Lewis and Rule’s dominating performance in the Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

1-Buddy’s Saint. Comes off a good, solid six-furlong drill on Sunday for trainer Bruce Levine in preparation for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. His pedigree suggests stamina, and continued success by this Saint Liam colt would be a fitting tribute to the late Allen Paulson, who produced the dam of Buddy’s Saint, the Blushing John mare Tuzia, runner-up in the 10-furlong Personal Ensign Stakes. Paulson never won the Kentucky Derby—not that he didn’t want to, but his breeding program was based more on producing horses with stamina, and that characteristic often comes at the expense of precocity.

2-Lookin At Lucky. The reigning champion (by Smart Strike) is working solidly in anticipation of his 3-year-old debut, expected to be March 13 in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Trainer Bob Baffert didn’t have the best of weekends when Tiz Chrome was beaten in the Robert Lewis Stakes and Oaklawn Park had to postpone the Southwest Stakes Monday—for which Conveyance had been shipped from California and entered to run—because of bad weather.

3-Rule. The quality of Triple Crown contenders prepping at Tampa Bay Downs has been on the upswing in recent years, so Rule’s impressive victory in Saturday’s Sam Davis is more meaningful in my eyes than it would have been just a few years ago. The son of Roman Ruler will get a much stiffer test next out—trainer Todd Pletcher said he wants to jump him into Grade 1 competition—but the encouraging thing about this most recent win was the way Rule relaxed on the lead.

4-American Lion. Sometimes a defeat is better than it looked, and that’s how I’m going to categorize American Lion’s third-place showing in Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes, his first route race around two turns. He bobbled coming out of the gate, used up some energy to challenge for the lead after that, battled favorite Tiz Chrome into submission in midstretch, but was unable to hold off Caracortado and the fast-finishing Dave in Dixie. The son of Tiznow got some experience in that race and will be a much better horse next time around for trainer Eoin Harty.

5- Dave In Dixie. If I had a dark horse candidate right now it would be this John Sadler-trained son of Dixie Union who came flying in the final furlong to finish second to Caracortado in the Robert Lewis Stakes. He closed a ton of ground in his previous start, the Norfolk, though not hitting the board that day, and will benefit from the tightener in the Lewis. Not every strong closer gets better with distance and he could be a sucker horse, but I’d give this colt another race or two to see if he figures out what this game is all about.

6-Super Saver. Member of the WinStar Farm Triple Crown juggernaut who is approaching his 2010 debut for Todd Pletcher. If nothing else, this Maria’s Mon colt demonstrated his affection for the Churchill racing strip when he won the Kentucky Jockey Stakes there last fall.

7-Jackson Bend. I’m just not convinced this son of the Carson City stallion Hear No Evil has the stamina required to win the Kentucky Derby over 10 furlongs. Has a lot of ability and is in the hands of a trainer, Nick Zito, who knows how to bring horses up to a big race.

8-Conveyance.  Presumably will remain at Oaklawn Park for the rescheduled running of the Southwest Stakes, which was cancelled on Monday because of bad weather and will be run this Saturday.

9-Caracortado. We went a long time between geldings winning the Kentucky Derby (Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 to Funny Cide in 2003), but now that there have been two in the last seven (Mine That Bird in 2009), would it be that unusual for a third? California-bred son of Cat Dreams has done nothing wrong in winning all five starts, beginning with a maiden claimer and most recently with his Robert Lewis Stakes victory. Trainer Mike Machowsky (also the breeder) is more than capable, but my caveat for this Cinderalla story is that Caracortado got an absolutely perfect trip under jockey Paul Atkinson, sitting just off the pace of dueling leaders.

10-Tiz Chrome. From first to 10th in a week, this son of Tiznow disappointed in his first try around two turns, but he didn’t get an easy lead, and it’s hard to win wire to wire on Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride track under those circumstances. I’m for second chances.

As far as three-year-old races are concerned, last weekend proved to be a bit of a…washout (pardon the pun). Santa Anita postponed their Saturday card where PDI top ten contenders American Lion and Tiz Chrome were scheduled to go against each other in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Additionally, the Las Virgenes was to feature PDI number 12 Blind Luck, who could be this year’s superfilly  version of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Fortunately for race fans, these races have been rescheduled for this Saturday the 13th.

On a down note, last week also brought the first deletion from the Derby Trail as Winslow Homer was forced to the sidelines and will miss the Kentucky Derby due to an injury that will take two months to recover from according to his connections.

This week, we’d like to thank James Scully of Brisnet for joining the PDI and are happy to give the racing public a voice by introducing a vote via our Daily Paulick Poll.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1 - Bob Baffert and I have more in common than a head of grey (or white) hair. Neither one of us had the patience to sit through the old TV show “Short Attention Span Theater,” and we both have a tendency to get distracted by shiny metal objects.

Actually, in Baffert’s case, his distractions come from shiny, fast-moving objects like 2009 champion juvenile Lookin At Lucky, who caught his eye at Keeneland’s sale of 2-year-olds in training, or Tiz Chrome (shiny metal object!), impressive winner of a maiden race at Churchill Downs last fall for Whispering Oaks Farm.

Baffert acquired the latter colt, a son of Tiznow, following that Nov. 1 maiden win, and he now races for the partnership of the Lanni Family Trust, Mercedes Stable and Bernie Schiappa. (In truth, it was actually Schiappa, a car dealer who knows a lot about shiny metal objects, that first saw Tiz Chrome.) Tiz Chrome is one-for-one for his new owners, having scored impressively in a minor stakes at Hollywood Park Dec. 19. He hasn’t gone beyond 6 1/2 furlongs yet, so distance is a question, but this is a flashy colt with a lot of ability. We’ll obviously know more after his next start in this weekend’s Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita, rescheduled after last weekend’s washout.

2 - There’s a lot to like about Buddy’s Saint, a son of Saint Liam who took the late-season Nashua and Remsen Stakes in New York before heading down to Florida to winter. I’ve always preferred late-maturing 2-year-olds as Derby prospects to those who zoom to the head of their class earlier in the season and have little improvement left in them. We’ll find out in the upcoming Fountain of Youth whether the Bruce Levine-trained colt is continuing on the upswing.

3 - Lookin At Lucky is near-perfect after six starts, his lone defeat coming in a heartbreak loss in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Is this son of Smart Strike one of those early-maturing colts that the rest of his foal crop is catching up to? Recent history is not on his side.

4 - Super Saver is a colt with a lot of talent from the deep Todd Pletcher barn (we won’t get into Pletcher’s Derby numbers yet). Son of Maria’s Mon rated on the lead while winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but it’s tough going wire to wire in the Derby.

5 - Jackson Bend finished a hard-trying second to now-sidelined Winslow Homer in the Holy Bull Stakes in his first start after being transferred to the barn of Hall of Famer Nick Zito, who does know a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby. Son of Hear No Evil (by Carson City) has a speed pedigree on top that should have some stamina influence from Cox’s Ridge on bottom side of his pedigree.

6 - I’m not going to second-guess trainer Todd Pletcher’s decision to send Rule down to Louisiana’s Delta Downs, where the son of Roman Ruler won the Jean Lafitte Stakes and Delta Jackpot, the latter Grade 3 race giving him more than enough money to qualify for the Derby field. Mine That Bird came out of Sunland Park to win last year’s Kentucky Derby, so maybe that will be the start of a trend of horses running for slots-rich purses en route to Churchill Downs.

7 - Indian Charlie colt Conveyance gives Hall of Famer Baffert three horses on my top 10 early-season Derby list. He’s opting to send this one to Oaklawn Park for Monday’s Southwest Stakes, following a hard-fought victory in the San Rafael at Santa Anita. Perhaps he’ll move up on the synthetic to dirt switch.

8 - American Lion is a son of Tiznow that gives WinStar Farm a strong early hand in the Triple Crown picture. Well-traveled colt is in the hands of Eoin Harty, who knows how to bring a horse up to a big race. Like Tiz Chrome, he’s only sprinted so far in his brief career, but with that pedigree (out of a Storm Cat mare) you’d have to think he’ll enjoy added distance.

9 - Blind Luck’s victory in the Hollywood Starlet to me was the most visually impressive win by any 2-year-old of either sex in 2009. Hard to believe cleverly named daughter of Pollard’s Vision started out her career in a $40,000 maiden claimer. Doubt trainer Jerry Hollendorfer will send her out against colts, but she does have an explosive turn of foot.

10 - Early in the winter of 2006 I considered Barbaro nothing more than an outstanding turf horse, so I’m not going to fall for that trap again with his full brother Lentenor, even though it took the son of Dynaformer three tries to break his maiden. Let’s see what he can do against winners.

It’s that time of year again. Turf writers, handicappers and bloggers get an extra early start on predicting who will be in the final field of 20 on that first Saturday in May. Is it premature? No doubt. Is the field set in any way? Not on your life. But part of the fun of any sport is to attempt to look into a crystal ball and predict the future.

Which brings us to the second annual Paulick Derby Index this year brought to you by the Simon family’s Vinery LTD. We would very much like to thank our sponsor for making this possible. Additionally, the impressive band of PDI voters, some old faces and some new, are what really make this AP Poll for the Derby Trail work. A special thank you from the Paulick Report to all 25 voters that are not currently on our staff!

Next week, look forward to a more in-depth analysis by Ray Paulick of his top ten and the opportunity for fans to vote on their favorites, thus adding a 28th vote to next week’s poll. We’ll be offering that opportunity Sunday night after the weekend’s races have been run in our daily poll located at www.paulickreport.com.

The list of contenders is wide open this week and should remain so for some time. Are you inclined to go with the early favorite in Lookin at Lucky or hoping for a repeat of last year and searching for the next Mine That Bird? Where did our poll go right? How would you have voted differently? Read through the poll and then let us know where you stand.

In a week that should have shown little movement in the rankings of the Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment, the Paulick Derby Index has actually shown some fluctuation as co-favorite Quality Road was withdrawn from the race on Monday because of complications resulting from a quarter crack. I Want Revenge, clearly now the favorite among our ballot stuffers, will lead a top ten that has lost some star power with several favorites not making the trip due to injury. That being said, this is still as strong a group as we have seen in years. The Derby this year should be an exciting one to watch with anywhere from 5-10 horses in legitimate contention.
 
You will also notice that the final week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment features only the top ten contenders. We did this to put an onus on the top echelon of the field and make our last list more exclusive.

Finally, due to the fact that all ballots are submitted by 9 PM EST Monday night and well before Square Eddie’s withdrawal, you will see him on several ballots.
 
Will the PDI be the great predictor it portends to be on Saturday? Only time will tell.

1-Pioneerof the Nile. The Kentucky Derby is a tough race to win, even if everything goes your way, and it’s almost impossible for a horse to win if his training has been interrupted. Witness Unbridled’s Song, who battled foot problems coming up to the 1996 Derby, where he might have been the best horse but finished fifth while racing with a bar shoe on the problematic foot. If Quality Road’s connections felt their horse was sound and sent him to Louisville, I would have bet against him, simply because of the interruption in training. Everything has gone perfectly for Pioneerof the Nile: no interruptions in training due to bad weather or nagging injuries, and he is coming up to this race in the best form of his career. The Empire Maker colt has done everything asked of him, and I doubt trainer Bob Baffert would trade places with anybody.

2-I Want Revenge. It’s the horse, stupid. I’m no fan of trainer Jeff Mullins or the IEAH partners that bought into this son of Stephen Got Even, but I do like I Want Revenge. How can you not like a horse that does what he did to win the Wood Memorial after a disastrous start? The race before that, the Gotham Stakes, he showed enough early speed to press the pace and draw off in the stretch to a an easy victory. He is 0-for-2 against Pioneerof the Nile, though his first loss, by a nose in the Cash Call Futurity, was in his first start after breaking his maiden. I think he’ll be the betting favorite, but if Pioneerof the Nile beats I Want Revenge, people will be scratching their heads and wondering why.

3-Dunkirk. Todd Pletcher has kept the son of Unbridled’s Song under the radar, staying in Florida to train while the rest of the field is in Kentucky, and I don’t fault his logic that the track on Derby Day will likely be different from the surface everyone trained on in the weeks leading up to the race. Always seems to be that way. The colt has enormous talent, but there remains that issue of a lack of experience that has stopped many previous Derby contenders with a similar profile.

4-Friesan Fire.  One thing we know: if it rains as expected, and the track is sloppy, Friesan Fire will be one happy horse. The A.P. Indy colt seemed to relish the sloppy Fair Grounds surface while winning the Louisiana Derby in a cakewalk. His training up to the race for Larry Jones has been sensational, and the only thing his resume lacks is a victory over tough competition.

5-Musket Man. Beating Giant Oak in the Illinois Derby was no great accomplishment (doesn’t somebody always beat Giant Oak?), but it’s hard to fault a horse with five wins in six starts. Yonaguska colt seems like the grinder type—not much early speed or quick mid-race acceleration—but if he gets a good enough trip under Eibar Coa I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the top flight at the eighth pole.

6-Papa Clem. Won the Arkansas Derby coming from off the pace, but Smart Strike colt has enough speed to be close up in the early going and maybe even make the lead if no one else wants it. Gary Stute learned from his father, Mel, the West Coast wizard of speed, so a late-week blowout of two or three furlongs might be used to sharpen up Papa Clem after a series of longer works.

7-Chocolate Candy. Has only one way of going, settle in near the back of the field and make a late run, so you know that racing luck will play a role for Candy Ride colt. Hollendorfer has won the Kentucky Oaks twice (Lite Light in 1991 and Pike Place Dancer in1996), proving he can win at the top level of the game while being based in California’s “B  Circuit” in the Bay Area. Training well, but has to have everything go his way for a victory.

8-Advice. Wise guys are asking how a horse that couldn’t win the Sunland Park Derby is going to win the Kentucky Derby.  Real Quiet, who came within a nose of winning the 1998 Triple Crown, couldn’t win in New Mexico, either, finishing third there as a 2-year-old in a pair of races. Advice demonstrated some quality last year, finishing second but DQed and placed third in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and his last to first rally in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes was eye-catching. But races were on Polytrack, however, and he has yet to prove himself on a conventional dirt track (though the same can be said of Pioneerof the Nile).

9-Desert Party. I like the way the son of Street Cry has trained since arriving from Dubai, but I’ve seen previous Godolphin horses looking sharp in the morning before fading on Derby afternoon. If this one is any different, he’ll win without my backing at the windows.

10-Mr. Hot Stuff. Have always thought this Tiznow colt was going to develop into a good one, but it’s taken longer than expected. He’ll be running late in the Derby, but I think he looks more like a Travers winner.

Last weekend was the final opportunity for Derby hopefuls to make their case. As a result, this week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment had two new entries with Square Eddie in a tie for 15th and Advice all alone in the 18th spot. The only other newbie on our list was a vote for Arkansas Derby 3rd place finisher Summer Bird.

Also significant was the tightening between the first and second place contenders I Want Revenge and Quality Road. This narrowing margin is due to Quality Road’s quarter crack not being as concerning as once believed.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. This was written before his first serious workout on the Churchill Downs surface, but I’m sticking with the Empire Maker colt unless and until he shows a complete disdain for dirt in his training up to the Kentucky Derby. Keeping Garrett Gomez in the saddle is a confidence booster because agent Ron Anderson is as sharp as they come.

2-I Want Revenge. Biggest question about Stephen Got Even colt’s two New York wins was who he beat. Not sure there was much quality behind him, but he was right there with Pioneerof the Nile in California and showed he likes the dirt. Versatile running style really a plus and jockey Joe Talamo is wise beyond his years.

3- Quality Road. Mystery horse as far as I’m concerned, because of the quarter crack. But based on that last New York workout and the fact the son of Elusive Quality apparently came out of it in good shape I’ve moved him up a notch over Dunkirk. Will he get the distance?

4-Dunkirk. Could there be a better backup rider to Garrett Gomez than Edgar Prado? No loss there in riding talent. Choice by Gomez and agent Anderson was a tough one, considering they were dealing with two high-powered trainers in Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher and two of the most prominent owners in the game in Ahmed Zayat and the Coolmore operation. Call me old school, but I think the lack of racing experience will go against both Quality Road and Dunkirk.

5-Friesan Fire. Larry Jones seems to have had a pretty well-defined plan for son of A.P. Indy and he’s sticking to it. Another one racing against history with his lengthy gap between races. Working solidly at Keeneland before shipping to Churchill Downs for final preparations.

6-Musket Man. Tampa Bay and Illinois Derby winner got vote of confidence from jockey Eibar Coa, but he’ll be facing a completely different caliber of horse when the Churchill Downs starting gates open.

7-Papa Clem. Smart Strike seems to keep siring one top runner after another, and Papa Clem is moving in the right direction as the first Saturday in May approaches. Gary Stute may be a Kentucky Derby rookie, but he’s no greenhorn, having gotten some big race experience when father Mel had Preakness winner Snow Chief and other top runners during a stellar training career.

8-Chocolate Candy. Interesting that a Santa Anita publicity staff survey of West Coast horsemen found a lot of support for this Candy Ride colt trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Will have a lot of horses to come around at the top of the stretch when he makes his late run.

9-Advice. So what if his Coolmore Lexington win was on a Polytrack surface that has produced so many unpredictable results? He’s an improving colt in good hands who closed like gangbusters to beat a Polytrack-loving Square Eddie.

10-Desert Party. How he trains over the next 10 days will have a lot to say about his chances. It’s a very difficult transition to make, coming from Dubai to Kentucky, and will take a top horse to handle it. I just don’t think he’ll be up to the challenge.

Ray Paulick’s Analysis

1-Pioneerof the Nile. Empire Maker colt is scheduled to work at Santa Anita Wednesday for trainer Bob Baffert before shipping to Churchill Downs. Doesn’t get much respect for a horse coming into the Kentucky Derby off four consecutive graded stakes victories, but such is the influence of speed figures these days. I think speed figures are less relevant in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby than they are for everyday races because of the unique nature of the Derby.

2-I Want Revenge. Already stabled at Churchill Downs, which gives Stephen Got Even colt plenty of time to acclimate to the racing strip. One caveat: the track horses train over before the live meet begins is often dramatically different than the one they’ll have on Derby Day.

3- Dunkirk. Though I have nagging doubts in the back of my mind about why this son of Unbridled’s Song has been raced so sparingly, I’m confident he may be the best qualified of the Derby contenders to get distances of a mile and a quarter and beyond. How he trains over the next couple weeks will be key.

4-Quality Road. So far, so good on the patched up quarter crack. Unlike some owners and trainers who have run horses in the Derby that were physically compromised, I have confidence that neither Elusive Quality colt’s owner, Ned Evans, or trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, would do that. With the loss of speed horses The Pamplemousse and Old Fashioned, the pace scenario is shaping up in Quality Road’s favor.

5-Friesan Fire. The book on preparing a horse for the Kentucky Derby is being constantly rewritten, so I’m not discounting the A.P. Indy colt’s chances because of the seven weeks trainer Larry Jones is giving him between starts.  And while Louisiana Derby runner-up Papa Clem’s win in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby flattered Friesan Fire, I still don’t think he’s faced the toughest competition this winter.

6-Musket Man. Speaking of flattery, the win by General Quarters in the Toyota Blue Grass strengthened Musket Man’s Tampa Bay Derby triumph. There’s a lot to like about this son of Yonaguska, but the biggest question concerns his pedigree, specifically his propensity to get a classic distance.

7 Papa Clem. Good move by trainer Gary Stute to ship this Smart Strike colt to Oaklawn Park early to train up to the Arkansas Derby. Along with the two victories in New York by I Want Revenge, the win by Papa Clem shows the depth of this year’s California contingent, as both chased Pioneerof the Nile in earlier races.

8-General Quarters. I confess that I missed the trouble the Sky Mesa colt encountered when fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I went back and watched the race again after hearing about it during Steve Byk’s “At the Races” radio show on Monday. Sure enough, he got the worst in that race and ran back to the strong form he showed in the Sam F. Davis while surprising Saturday’s Toyota Blue Grass Field. I don’t think that win was a fluke, but the Blue Grass field was a relatively unproven one.

9-Chocolate Candy. Was hurt more than anyone else by the lack of pace in the Santa Anita Derby, yet still closed strongly to be second to Pioneerof the Nile. Son of Candy Ride will need quick fractions to have a shot in the Kentucky Derby, and at this stage I’m not so sure he’ll get them.

10-Desert Party. It’s asking a lot of the Street Cry colt to ship halfway around the world twice in a six-month period. How he trains over the Churchill Downs surface over the next two and half weeks and how he looks will gives us a better idea of his chances to give Sheikh Mohammed his first win in the Kentucky Derby.