Archive for the ‘International Racing’ Category

PAULICK’S PICKS - FILLY FRIDAY

Thursday, October 23rd, 2008
By Ray Paulick

Cash in a couple of T-bills and get ready to make some serious, if not totally sound, investments on this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships. You’re sure to at least have some fun, which is more than you’ve had watching the Dow Jones Industrial Average the last several weeks.

The Breeders’ Cup betting menu has my head spinning with win, place and show wagers, exactas, trifectas, superfectas (at a dime a pop!), daily doubles, picks threes, pick fours, pick sixes, and even a couple of super high fives. If math isn’t your strong suit, Breeders’ Cup officials have even put together a special wagering calculator to see how much some of those bets will cost. They’re even offering free past performances, courtesy of Equibase. All account wagering companies will be taking bets or you can go to your local simulcast outlet. If you’re a novice, read some of these helpful handicapping hints.

For those interested in other people’s opinions, I’ve handicapped Friday’s races below (check back on Friday to get the Paulick Report lowdown on Saturday’s nine Breeders’ Cup races). I cut my teeth handicapping on the West Coast for eight years with Daily Racing Form in the 1980s, and have covered 22 of the 24 Breeders’ Cups . But it’s not widely known that I began my career in the business as an underaged jockey riding competitively on the Northern Illinois bush-corral circuit!

I’ve used all of my pari-mutuel winnings over the years for a vacation home in the Grand Caymans … which is still in the planning stages!

But seriously, for this year’s Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, keep an eye on how the Europeans handle the synthetic Pro-Ride surface in the early races, and be quick to adjust your early handicapping strategy if the surface is showing any biases related to front-running or closing speed. Extreme outside post positions for the mile and 1 1/16 races on both tracks are a major hindrance, and inside posts for the main track sprints are usually a disadvantage. Post position at 1 1/8 or 1 ¼ miles on the main track shouldn’t be a factor.

California-based horses will have a built-in advantage, not so much because of the track but because of the climate. Many horses coming in from colder regions have a hard time adapting.

Remember … bet early and often! I’m pretty sure I’ve got five straight winners here … but, please, tell me where I’m wrong!

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT
Can a $10,000 claimer win a $1-million Breeders’ Cup race? I think so.  Dearest Trickski was a sharp claim when Cody Autrey took him for $10,000 at Lone Star Park 18 months ago but an even better one for John Sadler, when he claimed her from Autrey for $32,000 just over a year ago at Del Mar. Since then, she’s won seven of eight starts, including three graded stakes, and is sharp as a tack for the West Coast’s hottest conditioner. Sadler withstood a steroids storm this past summer at Del Mar and has kept on winning. I like the fact she’s drawn well out from the rail and is a fat 15-1 on the morning line. With Indyanne out of the race, there’s less early speed to contend with, and word is that Will Phipps has been working on getting Dream Rush to rate. Indian Blessing will be the heavy favorite. Interesting how her Beyer Speed Figures in Daily Racing Form’s past performances are much better in New York than anywhere else and far superior to those for Dearest Trickski. I like another locally based longshot, Magnificience, to be a late threat, along with Intangaroo, who has been one of the best stories of 2008 because of trainer Gary Sherlock’s comeback from a near-fatal health condition.
Selections: 1- Dearest Trickski 2-Indian Blessing 3-Magnificience 4-Intangaroo
 
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
It’s a bit surprising there aren’t more Europeans in this field, and the ones that there are here don’t look that strong. In fact, the Juvenile Fillies Turf may be the most puzzling of the 14 Breeders’ Cup races. Keep in mind that the outside post positions are very tough going a mile on the Santa Anita turf, and I think that’s going to hurt the two best Euros, Beyond Our Reach and Heart Shaped. Shug McGaughey has one of the best Breeders’ Cup records among trainers, and that leads me to Consequence, who comes off a decent fourth on yielding turf at Belmont Park a few weeks ago in the Miss Grillo, one of the few graded races in this division. That was her first try at a distance and she should be much sharper this time around. I like her local bullet workout at Santa Anita. Laragh could team up with Stardom Bound in the Juvenile Fillies to make this a memorable day for the Gainesway team that stands first-crop sire Tapit, an also-ran to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby but running circles around him so far in the stallion biz. Laragh won a laugher at Keeneland, but Santa Anita is a different kind of turf course (less sandy), so I don’t put much stock into how easily she won. Jim Cassidy is as sharp as they come when it comes to finding horses in Europe, and April Pride could be one of those good finds. She has a lot of racing experience, has solid if not spectacular form, and breaks from the rail – a good post at this distance. Heart Shaped was very unlucky to draw the far outside.

Selections: 1- Consequence 2-Laragh 3-April Pride 4-Heart Shaped

JUVENILE FILLIES
Historically, the Juvenile Fillies has been one of the chalkier races, with 14 of the previous 24 winners going off the betting favorite. I’m convinced Stardom Bound is the best we’ve seen in the 2-year-old filly division, and she’s in good hands with Chris Paasch and Mike Smith. This could be one heckuva day for Mikey (and for the aforementioned Tapit, sire of Stardom Bound). Stardom Bound has a very strong kick, and unless she gets caught up in traffic problems (or the track has a bias favoring front-runners) she should run down the speed. Don’t make the mistake of overlooking D. Wayne Lukas in the exotics. He trains the quick Smarty Jones filly Be Smart, and while Lukas doesn’t have the numbers he used to have, the all-time leading Breeders’ Cup conditioner can still get it done when he’s got a good horse. She has the kind of speed that could tow-rope the field, especially if Palacio de Amor doesn’t get a quick jump out of the gate. Doremifasollatido got the absolute worst of the post position draw and will have to try to save some ground going into the first turn to have any chance. Pursuit of Glory romped on Polytrack in Ireland in her second start, though hasn’t raced beyond six furlongs yet for Coolmore connections

Selections: 1- Stardom Bound 2-Be Smart 3-Doremifasollatido 4-Pursuit of Glory

FILLY & MARE TURF
Halfway to Heaven
looks to have the perfect running style for this year’s edition of the Filly & Mare Turf: enough speed to either take the early lead or sit just off the pace and pounce when called upon by Johnny Murtagh. This looks like a deep field with the likes of course specialist Wait a While and ultra-consistent Mauralakana, but my suspicion is that the Europeans are superior to the home team. My biggest concern with Halfway to Heaven is if she might be “over the top” with six starts this year and a race in early October. I’m throwing another 3-year-old filly, Visit, into the mix for my exotic bets. She’s never gone this far, but a mile and quarter on the Santa Anita turf isn’t nearly as demanding as it is in Europe, and I always respect horses trained by Michael Stoute (racing’s Fred Flintstone lookalike). Can Folk Opera complete a European sweep in the trifecta? That’s where my money will be.

Selections: 1- Halfway to Heaven 2-Visit 3-Folk Opera 4-Wait a While

LADIES’ CLASSIC
The plan is to be so far ahead of the game by the time the Ladies’ Classic field enters the starting gate (around 6:15 p.m. Eastern), we are tempted to sit this one out and enjoy the sheer perfection of Zenyatta. But since we plan to be playing with other people’s money, let’s take a shot that the heaviest favorite on the day can be beaten. If there is an upset, I think it will be the only 3-year-old in the field, Music Note, who hasn’t stepped out of her division yet in stakes competition (though she beat a field of older mares in an allowance race in May). Her Gazelle win was nothing more than a public workout, and she’ll have to step up a bit from there to beat Zenyatta. If she can get an early jump on the favorite at the top of the stretch, she might be able to get the job done. Ginger Punch is tough as nails, but she couldn’t hold off Cocoa Beach in the slop last time out in the Beldame. I think she reverses the decision at Santa Anita but will have to settle for a minor award in defense of her title.

Selections 1-Music Note 2- Zenyatta 3-Ginger Punch 4-Cocoa Beach

Good luck and safe racing to all!

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick

Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world

LIVE BLOGGING BREEDERS’ CUP PRE-ENTRY TELECONFERENCE

Thursday, October 16th, 2008

At 1 p.m. Eastern Ray Paulick will be live blogging today’s National Thoroughbred Racing Association teleconference focusing on the 25th Breeders’ Cup from the Oak Tree Racing Association meeting at Santa Anita Park Oct. 24-25, pre-entries for which were announced earlier. Click here to get the list of pre-entries.

Scheduled guests on the conference are: 
. Greg Avioli, President and Chief Executive Officer, Breeders’ Cup Limited
. Sherwood C. Chillingworth, Director & Executive Vice-President, Oak Tree at Santa Anita
. Tom Robbins, Chairman, Breeders’ Cup Racing Directors/Secretaries Panel
. Rick Hammerle, Racing Secretary, Santa Anita Park

. Trainer Steve Asmussen.
. Trainer Eoin Harty
. Owner Jerry Moss
. Alastair Donald, Director of the International Racing Bureau 

1:04 p.m. … Before the conference begins, let me send a cautionary note to readers of today’s blog. In the event any of the participants starts talking about Joe the Plumber, I am out of here. That is, unless there is actually a pre-entered horse named Joe the Plumber. It comes to mind that we could have used Joe the Plumber at this year’s Belmont Stakes. If you were there, you’d know what I mean.

1:06 p.m. … It’s post time! Where are the horses?

1:12 p.m. … Still no tellie conference! While we are waiting, let me remind everyone that post positions will be drawn for the Friday and Saturday races next Tuesday, Oct. 21. TVG will have the live draw of some of the races that afternoon. Let’s hope the draw is as dramatic and entertaining as the Kentucky Derby draw! (Actually, it’s a pretty serious and busineslike affair, given the number of races that will be drawn, and they do it the old-fashioned way.)

1:16 p.m. … We begin! Jim Gluckson, the Breeders’ Cup publicist gets on the call and we immediately hear someone’s cell phone going off.

1:18 p.m. … Jimmy G. says there is a record number of pre-entries from overseas (I guess it helps that three races were added.)  There should be a lot of records with the expansion. Greg Avioli is giving introductory remarks now. "Strongest fields in the 25 year history of our event….$25 million in purses. We are particularly pleased that the six new races (three in 2007, three this year) all have been oversubscribed." Avioli says he could talk for a long time but won’t. Good news. More good news. Advance forecast…83 degrees and sunny. No fires in sight this year, thankfully.

1:20 p.m. … Sherwood Chillingworth of Oak Tree takes the phone and mentions that this is a year of firsts: first time on synthetic, and first time without steroids (thanks for that reminder…does that mean we should put an asterisk in front of all previous Breeders’ Cup champions like baseball may do with Barry Bonds and that shameless dude from the St. Louis Cardinals?

1:25 p.m. … A little humor is injected into the call. Gluckson asks if Jerry Moss is on the line (he isn’t yet), then asks if trainer Eoin Harty is on the line. Harty says he is, and is ready to answer questiions anyone has for Jerry Moss, too.

1:30 p.m. … Steve Asmussen on the call says he was a little concerned with the hot weather when Curlin first arrived in California but it’s cooled off. Synthetic tracks can be very different day to day,  says Asmussen, but he is satisfied with how Curlin has handled it so far. Asmussen isn’t going to judge anyone else’s horses (no trash talk against Duke of Marmalade, given a question about that horse from  a writer).

1:31 p.m. … Does Eoin Harty have a home field advantage on synthetic surfaces with Well Armed and Colonel John? "Only in that I don’t have to ship," he replied.

1:32 p.m. … Jerry Moss talks about Zenyatta. "It’s not that we weren’t aware she didn’t have great talent. John Shirreffs always said she was special. … We don’t consider anything’s in the bag. Mike’s (jockey Smith) going to have to be lucky and she’s going to have to run her best race to win. … "We had a really nice filly that won the (Kentucky) Oaks in 1994, Sardula, and unfortunately she contracted an illness and didn’t make it past her fourth year. So we don’t take anything for granted. When I think of the great fillies I think of Personal Ensign, and the great race she had with Winning Colors back in the 1980s. I remember how she went to the breeding shed undefeated and that would be great if we could do something like that." Moss said he and wife Ann have not made any decision yet about 2009 with Zenyatta, as to whether or not she will run. Talking about Tiago, Moss said he will be "running against some the greatest horses of our time."

1:37 p.m. … A question about why the Breeders’ Cup came to a track with synthetics. Avioli said the Breeders’ Cup board made "an intentional decision" to have the races on a synthetic surface. "I don’t foresee going back to an era when you only have traditonal dirt tracks. … I expect you are going to see many, many more Breeders’ Cups held on synthetic tracks in the future."

1:39 p.m. … Back to Moss. He isn’t thinking about Horse of the Year for Zenyatta in the event Curlin is beaten in the Classic.

1:40 p.m. … Is Asmussen concerned Curlin may be vulnerable on a synthetic track. "There’s a lot out there…horses as accomplished as Tiago is a longshot. It’s competitive and we have nothing but respect for the horses involved. Having said that we are very proud of Curlin and very proud to be on his side."

1:41 p.m. … Did Moss ever consider the Classic with Zenyatta? "It never really entered our minds. We were always pointing toward this race, the Ladies’ Classic. OK she’s an undefeated filly and she might do well against colts, but this would be the first time she runs a mile and a quarter. Maybe there’s another time for that if she runs next year, and there’s some mile and quarter races for fillies we can try."

1:42 p.m. … Edgar Prado will ride Colonel John after Garrett Gomez chose to ride Go Between in the Classic. Harty said he wasn’t surprised by the deicison by Gomez and his agent.

1:43 p.m. … "Curlin looked absolutely fabulous in the California sun," Asmussen said about Curlin’s afternoon work on Monday. "The crowd erupted in the work," he said, "and Curlin jumped into the bridle." Asmussen said Curlin "has spoiled us with his consistency and ability. … I felt the track was very quick that afternoon. We were very pleased with the result." It was just a breeze, however, he added, a race is a completely different thing.

1:45 p.m. … Well Armed’s comeback from a serious health problem was a testament to the "owner’s perseverence," Harty said, then referred to WinStar Farm co-owner Bill Casner as a "hard-headed Texan." Veterinarians had recommended to Casner that Well Armed be euthanized.

1:47 p.m. … Asmussen has two others in the Classic… Student Council and Pyro."Student Council is a tremendous horse mentally and physically. He will show up and run his best race in the Breeders’ Cup. … Pyro deserves a chance at a mile and a quarter again (especially after the trouble he had in the Derby and Travers). The synthetic surface is a huge question because of his disappointing Blue Grass. But Polytrack isn’t Pro-Ride, and we’ll go from there." Asmussen refers to Curlin as a "Baby Huey" kind of horse early last year. 

1:49 p.m. … Moss named many of his horses after the music business he’s in. How was Zenyatta named? "Zenyatta is named after the third Police album, Zenyatta Mondatta, which means absolutely nothing. We thought this would fit her and it has," he says.

1:51 p.m. … "Candidly after last year’s event we spent a lot of time thinking about what we could do to bring more European horses and Asian horses," Avioli said in response to a question about the increase in International runners this year. Avioli said it has to remain a "world championship."  He said Breeders’ Cup officials actively recruited foreign runners. "There are more and more of these late fall championships in the world. The Arc, Hong Kong, Japan, and the Melbourne Cup. There’s a lot of competition out there for international horses."

1:54 p.m. … Tom Robbins said the Juvenile Fillies Tur f was a very difficult race to sort through and choose the field.

1: 56 p.m. … Someone asks Jerry Moss how he feels to have his unbeaten filly relegated to a Friday afternoon race (Filly Friday). "I’m just thrilled we are in the race," he says. "So in that sense whenever they decide to hold the race would be just fine with me. Whenever they scheduled it is up to them. They have the whole picture,  and I’m just concerned about our horses and how they are doing. I really don’t have a comment on that. It’s not my place to ruminate about that."

1:58 p.m. … How much will be the economy going in the tank hurt this year’s Breeders’ Cup? "We will not be able to do the same level of handle that hypothetically we would have done if the economy not taken the nosedive it did.," said Avioli. Any estimate on this year’s handle? "It’s an inexact science," Avioli says. (Trust me: they have projections,  they’re just not going to say what they are.)

2:00 p.m. … "European horses in the Turf are fast-ground horses," says Alastair Donald of the International Racing Bureau.  He thinks the synthetic track will give Europeans a better chance to win the non-turf races, but adds, "I still think that we may put out our best performances on the turf." As for European horses coming to California, Donald said it isn’t the heat that gets to the European horses or the firm surface, but the farther distance horses must travel (as opposed to Belmont or Churchill Downs). It’s also the end of a long year for many of them, he added.  "The steroid situation is greatly improved and there is consensus that we are on a level playing field. The synthetic surface helps level the playing field, too."

END OF TELECONFERENCE

TV LINEUP AND POST TIMES FOR SATURDAY’S BIG RACES

Friday, September 26th, 2008
Estimated Post Time (all times Eastern), Race Name, Track, Breeders’ Cup Division, Network, Equibase entries

9:30 a.m.-Royal Lodge Stakes, Ascot, Juvenile Turf, TVG
10:05 a.m.-Meon Valley Stud Mile, Ascot, Juvenile Fillies Turf, TVG
11:15 a.m.-Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, Ascot, Mile Turf, TVG
3:33 p.m.-Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies, Turfway, Juvenile Division, TVG, entries
3:40 p.m.-Beldame Stakes, Belmont, Ladies Classic Division, TVG, HRTV, entries
4:04 p.m.-Kentucky Cup Sprint, Turfway, Sprint Division, TVG, entries
4:13 p.m.-Flower Bowl Invitational S, Belmont, Filly & Mare Turf Division, TVG, HRTV, entries
4:37 p.m.-Kentucky Cup Juvenile, Turfway, Juvenile Division, TVG, entries
4:46 p.m.-Vosburgh Stakes, Belmont, Sprint Division, TVG, HRTV, entries
5:02 p.m.- Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship Stakes, Oak Tree at Santa Anita,Turf Division, TVG, entries
5:10 p.m.-Kentucky Cup Distaff, Turfway, Ladies Classic Division, TVG, entries
5:19 p.m.-Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational S, Belmont, Turf Division, TVG,HRTV, entries
5:30 p.m.-Lady’s Secret Stakes, Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Ladies Classic Division, TVG, entries
5:44 p.m.-Kentucky Cup Classic, Turfway,Classic Division, TVG, entries
5:52 p.m.-Jockey Club Gold Cup, Belmont, Classic Division, ESPN News, MSG PLUS, TVG, HRTV, entries
5:54 p.m.-Hawthorne Golf Cup Handicap, Classic Division, Hawthorne, TVG, entries
6:00 p.m.-Ancient Title Stakes, Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Sprint Division, TVG, entries
7:00 p.m.-Oak Leaf Stakes, Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Juvenile Fillies Division, TVG, entries
7:30 p.m.-Yellow Ribbon Stakes, Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Filly & Mare Turf Division, TVG, entries
8:00 p.m.-Goodwood Stakes, Oak Tree at Santa Anita, Classic Division, TVG, entries


 

EXPERIMENTAL CUP?

Thursday, August 7th, 2008

Jess Jackson seemed to dismiss a repeat attempt by Curlin in the Breeders’ Cup Classic as if he was flicking a piece of lint off the lapel of his tweed jacket.

“Been there, done that,” Jackson said to reporters the other day in a teleconference to announce future plans for the reigning Horse of the Year.
Instead, Jackson seems bent on some exotic mission that he hopes will prove more satisfying, like the Hong Kong Cup or Japan Cup in Asia.
So that’s how far the Breeders’ Cup Classic has fallen. The majority owner of the best horse America has seen, perhaps since Cigar more than a decade ago, is seeking new worlds to conquer rather than go for a repeat in the richest and what should be the most important race run on American soil – the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Did I say run on American “soil”? Right now, no one is sure exactly what the Classic will be run on when the Breeders’ Cup comes to Santa Anita Park for its two-day race meeting on Oct. 24-25. As I write this, 80 days before the self-proclaimed “world championships,” an Australian company is sifting a variety of materials onto the oval that that has hosted some of the greatest races this sport has seen. The company, Pro-Ride, has some experience in installing and maintaining training tracks and materials for lunging rings et al, but Santa Anita will be the first major meeting that uses Pro-Ride for racing.
Instead of world championships, perhaps this year’s Breeders’ Cup (and next year’s since Breeders’ Cup management and its board decided to go back-to-back at Santa Anita in 2009) should be called the grand experiment. Jackson (and who can really blame him?) doesn’t feel he should use Curlin as a guinea pig on such a surface.
Once Breeders’ Cup (and the industry) determines whether or not these man-made tracks are better for the horses and for the sport, there will remain the serious question of how to keep a Breeders’ Cup champion like Curlin interested in going for a repeat.
Tiznow is the only horse to have won the Classic twice (2000 and ’01), and only a handful have even tried it.  For many winners, it’s been the final stop on the road to the breeding shed. Jess Jackson decided to keep Curlin in training for another year, and you can select from one of the following reasons: a) he’s a sportsman who doesn’t need the money; b) there were legal entanglements involving his ownership that might have made a stud deal difficult; c) all of the above.
Say, for example, trainer Rick Dutrow is able to hold Big Brown together through the end of the year and win the Classic with the same verve with which the colt won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He’ll go from there to Three Chimneys Farm in Kentucky to get ready for the 2009 breeding season. The economic reality is that a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner can earn more money by breeding than he can by racing.
 Does it have to be that way?
Has Breeders’ Cup looked into the possibility of offering a bonus for a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner that repeats the following year? Has it considered enhancing the Classic purse for winners of Triple Crown races to keep them in training for another year? Even if Big Brown lost this year’s Breeders’ Cup, dangling an extra few million dollars in his direction for the 2009 Classic might be enough of an incentive to keep him in training. Well, perhaps not Big Brown, but you get the idea.
The international competition to attract the world’s best horses is getting tougher. Many of these international events pay all shipping fees for horses and expenses for their connections, something the Breeders’ Cup has not done. Organizations like the Japan Racing Association have included bonuses in the already-rich purses for their international races to attract good horses.
The Breeders’ Cup is in competition with those international organizations. If it wants to keep America’s best horses here and attract others from around the globe, it’s going to have start thinking like a business and offer incentives that will help justify its claim to be a true world championship. Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary from Ray Paulick.
Blog Right ad