Teruya Yoshida’s Screen Hero pulled off a huge upset in the 2,400-meter Japan Cup at Tokyo Racecourse on Sunday, taking the lead in the final 100 meters and holding off a fast-closing Deep Sky, winner of this year’s Japanese Derby. The 4-year-old filly Vodka, winner of the Japanese Derby of 2007 and the wagering favorite in the North American pool, was third. A third Japanese Derby winner, Meisho Samson, battled for the lead into midstretch but faded late.
A 4-year-old son of the Silver Hawk stallion Grass Wonder out of Running Heroine, by Sunday Silence, Screen Hero was bred in Japan by his owner’s Shadai Farm. He is trained by Yuichi Shikato and was ridden by Italian jockey Mirco Demuro, who one day earlier was issued a 30-day license to ride in Japan. Demuro has ridden at Japan Racing Association tracks on a temporary license every year since 1999.
The win was the fifth in 17 starts for Screen Hero and his first in a Grade 1 race. He was coming off a victory in the Grade 2 Copa Republica Argentino over the same Tokyo grass course. Click here to see past performances for the race.
Screen Hero covered the distance (about 1 ½ miles) in 2:25.50 and paid $122.80 to win in the North American pools. The race was televised in North America by TVG.
There were no North American horses in the race following the scratch by trainer Neil Drysdale of Canadian International winner Marsh Side due to a fever.
After 48 hours of being told horse racing needs newer and younger and more female fans, Ray Paulick is mad as hell and he isn’t going to take it anymore. He wants to know, among other things: Why does racing hate us old men? Ray’s gavel to snooze button coverage of the 32nd Asian Racing Conference takes a diversion today as he offers stream of consciousness (when conscious) coverage of the final programs from Tokyo, which touch on television, wagering, and the dreaded S.S. (synthetic surfaces).
CONFESSION: I’M AN OLD (55) MAN and am feeling a bit lonely. Racing doesn’t want me anymore. It seems more interested in younger people, men with fulls heads of hair, and women who giggle and love horses but have never bet more than $2 to show on a race. What have I done, to borrow from the Aussies, to hack you off? All I and my fellow old men do is go to your tracks, buy your lousy food, bet till our pockets are empty, and fall asleep on the train on the way home. Yet you would rather cater to people who don’t even like your product. Where’s the love, racing?
It’s not just an American problem, this fixation racing has on replacing the dead with people with a heartbeat. It’s going on in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan. Everywhere horses race, the marketers hate us old men.
Just yesterday, a producer from Fuji television, which broadcasts into 90% of Japanese homes, was lamenting that his Sunday racing telecasts have a demographic that is so old that he can only sell advertising time to rocking chair and walking stick manufacturers. Actually, it isn’t quite that bad, but old men were making up such an increasing percentage of the Sunday racing programs’ audience over the past 10 years (from 47% to 63%) to the point that producers decided to shake up the broadcast and bring in people who knew nothing about racing but had some connection with celebrity. There’s hope for David Hasselhoff over here in Japan!
Worse yet, Fuji’s racing telecast ratings declined over those 10 years, from 7.7 (about 3 million households) to 5.0 (about 2 million). Fuji’s metrics people are very clever, measuring their audience segments into eight categories (two youth, and three each by age group for male and female). The "old man" portion of the audience remained the same over those 10 years, with losses coming in the younger and female segment. So Fuji decided to take it out on the old men by providing programming that was irrelevant or irritating to them.
But wait. The Fuji TV producer, Masanari Funaki, said the younger generation is watching all of television less, not just racing telecasts. They have discovered the Internet, video games and mobile phone networking. Nevertheless, Fuji opted to ignore the old men and provide less information about handicapping and gambling (which us old guys like) and show more personality features, make the program more entertaining and focus more on "the sporting aspects of horse racing."
His reason? "We wanted to catch some of those sports fans who might be channel surfing," Funaki said. "We think it’s very important for viewers to see horse racing programs in the same way they see other sports programs, so we don’t overpromote the gambling aspect and get viewers to see the human element. We show more about jockeys, their histories and their background."
What a fool, I thought.
Not so fast, my friend. "This year’s racing telecast ratings are up," Funaki said.
Fuji TV also developed a Saturday night midnight racing telecast that focuses on handicapping the Sunday race, using well-known handicappers from six Tokyo newspapers who scream at each other about how stupid they are.Kind of like the three talking heads on TVG. "Those programs are very popular with younger men," Funaki said.
In my country, Mr. Funaki, old men are asleep by midnight.
SOMEONE ELSE ON THE TELEVISION PANEL SET UP A HORSEY PINATA representing the American racing industry and people took turns whacking it and reminding us of how stupid we are in the United States.
Those guys from the United Kingdom and Australia are so smart, just because they know how to tell time. Smug. They have a 3 o’clock race at Ascot and a 3;15 at Lingfield in the UK, and in Australia (where the clocks are upside down), they manage to televise about 12,000 horse races every day without having any post times overlapping with one another. The reason? Apparently, they can maximize wagering by coordinating post times for the races.
In America, experience has shown that it’s much better to have three races from major tracks all start at exactly the same time, so that simulcast or account wagering customers have to choose between races rather than bet on all three. It’s called maximizing stupidity, or something like that. "America’s most famous racetracks have races going off right on top of each other," said Brendan Parnell, chief operating officer for Australia’s Tabcorp. "They are cannibalizing or eating each other’s lunch and missing great opportunities. People are getting shut out."
Whack! Take that, you damned Yankees.
OLD MEN AREN’T THE ONLY ENEMIES OF RACING. So are governments, who set and enforce ominous hurdles that keep the sport from seizing on some great opportunities, such as a "global bet." (Aren’t most governments and racing regulatory bodies run by old men? Yes!)
John Stuart, who carries the creative title "director of international marketing and operations" for the make-believe Phumelela Gaming and Leisure Co. (what, there really is a place called Phumelela?), presented a science fiction video about a global horse bet called the "Universal," where fans in any country pick the first eight finishers of a big international race like the Japan Cup and create a betting pool in excess of a billion dollars. "Had Barack Obama been watching that," Stuart said, "he’d be shouting ‘yes, we can,’ ‘yes, we can.’ So should we be."
Of course, that will never happen because too many governments have protectionist laws prohibiting commingling of betting pools from one country to another. Plus, the American totalizator companies would still be accepting bets after the race is over.
A SERIES OF PRESENTATIONS ON MEDICATION featuring dreadfully boring attorneys and veterinarians has just about everyone in the room nodding off until a snappy Q&A segment near the end when the moderator directed a question about illegal drugs to Brian Stewart, head of veterinary regulation and international liaison to the Hong Kong Jockey Club. Specifically, Stewart was asked by Australian turf editor Bart Sinclair whether blood-doping agents like EPO, which have plagued cycling and some other sports, are being used in racing. Stewart nodded to the affirmative. "How big a problem is EPO?" Sinclair asked. "I’d say it’s widepread," Stewart said. That sent many Asian Racing Federation delegates straight to the bar for a stiff one.
THERE ALSO WAS MUCH DISCUSSION ABOUT HANDICAPPING INFORMATION. What should be given to these young fans who don’t exist yet? How should we deliver information to them? Gift wrapped with local currency, I think.
Howard Wright, senior editor for England’s Racing Post and one of the people in the media who "gets it," had me going there for a minute when he said the racing industry in Great Britain actually wants to make money from newspapers for providing information about horse racing to fans. Good one, Howard. They can’t be that arrogant over there, can they? Seems like the industry should be paying newspapers to promote the sport, not the other way around.
Howard, like me, is a slightly grumpy old man who does see the need for racing to replace those of us who will soon be pushing daisies. He also understands these young kids today don’t know how to read a newspaper, but doesn’t think the traditional ways of providing handicapping information (Racing Post, Daily Racing Form) should be abandoned. "One size fits all no longer applies," he said. "The media has to find ways of satisfying its traditional horse racing audience while also accommodating the PlayStation generation, who want their involvement presented in small pieces and want it now." It’s time for "Racing Form Lite" he said. Tastes great, less filling!
Howard also mentioned the budget cutbacks in most daily newspapers (e.g., they are dying faster than us old men), and suggested that racing isn’t alone in having its editorial space reduced. "Racing will never beat football," he reminded. Someone got out the Pinata again and started talking about how American newspapers have stopped covering horse racing altogether. Whack, whack, whack!
SOMEONE SUGGESTED THIS NEW THING CALLED THE INTERNET might be a good way to deliver information to these newbies. That’s where the kids are hanging out these days, aren’t they? To strategerize about this, the Asian Racing Federation found a really smart kid, Koichi Yamamoto, who must be the youngest senior research director the Dentsu Institute has ever had. (He got his MBA from Columbia University when he was, like, 12 years old.)
Yamamoto outlined how blogs and social networking have changed things and talked about how businsses need to reach "new influencers," people who are constantly communicating online by networking and commenting on blogs and never breathing fresh air. These "new influencers" might not be as informed as us old guys or as opinioned; in fact, they are more easy to influence than us stick in the mud types, Yamamoto said. But don’t inundate these "new influencers" with gibberish, he said, because they are adept at filtering out useless crap. "Only the most attractive and relevant information gets through," he said.
If the message gets through, however, Katy bar the door. Word of mouth is the new king, he said. Social trends spread at lightning speed. "People want to tell friends about things that at least some people know, but not too many people know," Yamamoto said. "The topicality window opens faster and closes faster."
Yamamoto said the newbs are hip to the trick of marketing people. "Increasingly sophisticated consumers can easily see through marketing schemes," he said. "Relationships with these consumers is more important than ever. Strong relationships turn information-filtering consumers into information-hungry consumers."
Can I get a translator please?
"WHAT IF STEVE JOBS WERE TO ENTER THE RACING INDUSTRY? How would Apple innovate the customer experience?" Those questions were asked by Edward Tse, a McKinsey and Co. consultant to the Hong Kong Jockey Club who encouraged racing associations to think more innovatively than they have done in the past. Tse reviewed the depressing statistics that show pari-mutuel handle losing altitude and asked if it is sufficient to simply launch new bet types, which many racing associations have tried. "Or," he asked, "do we need a new approach?"
He then listed six building blocks needed for innovation: 1) tax reform and product pricing; 2) customer segment expansion; 3) channel innovation and expansion; 4) product and service innovation; 5) image or brand building; 6) customer relationship management/loyalty.
Savvy guys like Tse do all sorts of analytics, and he said the most valuable ones are predictive in nature: in other words, get a swami to crunch your numbers. Short of that, he said, try and get predictive analytics that answer the following questions: What’s the best thing that can happen? What will happen next? If these trends continue, why?
Tse said companies that do this well include Capital One, the annoying credit card company that fills your mailbox with junk every day, the consumer electronics store Best Buy (news of their current problems hadn’t reached Tse yet), and the Harrah’s casino company, which he said "revolutionized the casino industry by adopting highly analytic customer focused innovation."
Harrah’s, he said, separates all of its customers into segments by profit potential, drives those customers to aspire to a higher level, optimizes placement of its slot machines in the best locations, and uses customer satisfaction measurements to shape their business plan. The whole point of this is to separate the customers from their money, and Harrah’s is extremely good at that.
Back to racing. Tse insisted that new approaches to the customer experience are required to modernize the industry. Following Harrah’s lead, racing associations must use deep customer segmentation and analytics as the foundation for innovation. "For most racing organizations," Tse said, "this will require a different mindset and new skills."
Unfortunately, many people with those skills end up working at a company like Apple.
DO LOWER PRICES INCREASE SALES? The Hong Kong Jockey Club was curious to see if the cost of a bet could affect how much is wagered, so they tried something foreign to most horseplayers: they lowered prices. Specifically, the HKJC offered rebates for losing bets made by some of their highest-rolling customers. The net result: players who received rebates, thereby effectively lowering their takeout, wagered more.
It wasn’t that easy, though. To give rebates, the HKJC had to cut a deal with government that gave them the flexibility to offer innovative programs like rebates. The agreement worked both ways, with the HKJC guaranteeing HK$8 billion in annual revenue to the government, more than they’d gotten the previous year. The HKJC wanted to expand the number of race days from 78 a year and the number of commingled simulcasts from 10. The government didn’t budge on those requests.
The rebates were for losing bets of HK$10,000 and up (about US$1,200) on win, place, quinella and quinella place wagers. To coincide with the introduction of the bets, the HKJC convinced 500 bettors from different wagering segments (frequent, occasional, big bettors, small bettors) to allow their betting to be tracked for analytical purposes. Not surprisingly, big, frequent players took advantage of the rebates the most, effectively lowering takeout from 18.7% to 16.9% and increasing the volume of their bets by having more money to churn. For the occasional and smaller players, the rebate and lure of lower takeout made little or no difference.
The rebates were funded by the HKJC, which looked at them as a marketing investment in their future. Handle increased, but not to the extent that it paid for itself. Bill Nader, the former New York Racing Association chief operating officer who is now executive director of the HKJC, said the organization hopes it will pay dividends in the long run.
MR. SEKIGUCHI, WHERE ARE YOU? Fusaro Sekiguchi, the flamboyant Japanese businessman who raced Fusaichi Sekuguchi to victory in the 2000 Kentucky Derby and has been a major buyer at foal and yearling sales around the world over the last decade, has been keeping a very low profile in his native Japan recently.
Some Japanese racing insiders have said he has sold most of his horses and others have suggested the global credit crunch may have dealt him a severe blow. Last time I saw him was in the paddock of the Tokyo Race Course at the Japan Cup a couple of year ago, where he was nattily dressed as usual. Sekiguchi has had some ups and downs in his racing and business career (famously failing to pay Keeneland on some yearling purchases prior to buying FuPeg for $4 million, and later getting fired by the company he started), and he always seems to land on his feet.
Here’s hoping we see him in the winner’s circle again real soon.
DARLEY JAPAN FARM EXPANDING: Darley Japan Farm, the Japanese breeding entity on Hokkaido owned by Ken Mishima, has expanded with the purchase of Nishiyama Farm, whose previous owner raced Paradise Creek, winner of the Eclipse Award as outstanding turf male in 1994. Though it’s a bit confusing, Darley Japan Farm and Darley Japan (which stands stallions) are separate entities, in part because of the licensing peculiarities of the JRA that require Japanese owners of breeding farms.
FINALLY, THE GRAND FINALE THAT WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING FORWARD TO…the "cage match" discussion arguing the merits of synthetic surfaces.
Ian Pearse of Pro-Ride surfaces of Australia, bragged on the results of the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita while Michael Dickinson, waiting for his turn to speak about his creation, Tapeta Footings, sat patiently onstage sticking pins into a voodoo doll that resembled Ron Charles, who chose Pro-Ride over Tapeta for Santa Anita, host of the 2008 and 2009 world championships.
Raji Jayaraju then sang the praises of the synthetic surface installed at the Singapore Turf Club track where he is senior manager. Singapore’s new track has been very useful because of the heavy rain they get in Singapore that often leaves the turf course extremely soggy. Jockeys and trainers said in a video that the synthetic track was terrific (under threat of a caning?).
Dr. Toshiyushi Takahashi, a representative of the JRA, presented some scientific research that showed why synthetic tracks might be safer than Japanese dirt tracks. The JRA installed synthetic material on one of its training tracks and compared hoof impact between dirt and synthetic tracks, measuring the velocity of impact and time of hoof stabilization at impact. Dr. Takahashi summarized by saying that synthetic tracks are more stable and provide more traction than dirt or wood chip tracks, and are more constant at the time of hoof landing.
But that science is meaningless in the face of comments from turf writers and horse players who are more concerned with tradition and form than the safety of horses.
"To those of you who train, for those of you who’ve got sand and dirt tracks, please switch to synthetics," Dickinson said. when asked about safety. "Whether you go with Tapeta, Pro-Ride or my good friend Martin Collins’ Polytrack, please change. It’s much safer for the horses." Apparently, someone "got to" the panelists and said no name calling. Cage match cancelled.
That’s it from the Asian Racing Conference. I’ll summarize what I’ve learned over these last few days in a forthcoming commentary.
The Paulick Report caught up with former New York Racing Association chief operating officer Bill Nader, who since April 2007 has served as executive director of racing for the Hong Kong Jockey Club. Nader is attending the 32nd Asian Racing Conference in Tokyo, where he gave a presentation on the Asian Racing Federation’s International Circuit.
Ray Paulick: Bill, can you briefly describe your responsibilities at the Hong Kong Jockey Club? Bill Nader: As executive director, I oversee all racing operations, and that extends to the laboratories, veterinarians, farriers, grooms, work riders, handicappers, racing stewards, racing registry, marketing, public affairs and also the international races. It’s a big operation. There are about 1,800 people reporting directly or indirectly to me, and we have tremendous people in the key positions from all over the world, from Hong Kong, Great Britain, Australia and New Zealand.
What’s the best part of your job? The popularity of the sport makes it contagious and gives you a reason to want to get up every day. There’s never a dull day. It’s the major sport in Hong Kong. There are single events that may be bigger, but in terms of something sustainable over the course of the year racing is the only game in town. One example: circulation of a daily newspaper increases by 30% on a race day.
Your biggest challenge? The ability for us to grow. It’s one thing to get where we are and sustain our position, but to take it to the next level. We think we can do that, but we need government support. We have 78 race meetings and we have to guarantee HK$8 billion (about US$1 billion) in revenue to the government. My two years have been lucky, we’ve been up in turnover. We’ve been able to grow from HK$60 billion in handle to HK$68 billion last year. Tax rate effectively is 73% of gross margin, before we pay prize money or overhead. We can only simulcast 10 single races per season and want to expand that but have been unsuccessful so far. There’s limited stabling and no breeding industry, so no room to expand. We have an active population of just over 1,100 horses. To get through 735 races, 90% of the races on turf, with those horses, it’s a challenging process.
What is the major difference between working at NYRA and working for the Hong Kong Jockey Club? Resources. Not just money but the depth of personnel at top levels all the way down. The Hong Kong Jockey Club is arguably the most professionally run racing organization in the world. It’s a finely tuned machine. Its can-do spirit is really evident day by day taking tough assignments and meeting the challenge, whether it’s working on the Olympic Games or the international races. The work ethic here, too, is amazing. Our employees work 11 or 12 hour days and won’t go home until they feel their job is done.
What do you miss the most about the U.S.? I miss a lot. Italian restaurants, sports, Broadway shows. There are no major league sports here. Overall there’s a lot of good things about Hong Kong, so it’s a trade-off.
How do you spend your leisure time?
I don’t have a lot of it. During the 10 months of the racing season, we’re fortunate to get one day off a month.
What do you know today you didn’t know before you came to Hong Kong?
It’s been amazing. It opens your eyes to come and see racing presented in a different system. The whole approach is different. You learn by just opening your eyes. I learned early on not to jump to any conclusions and get a feel for the methodology that’s employed in this part of the world. A lot of things done here we can’t duplicate back in America.
Are there things that we can do better in America? The position on medication is interesting. Talking to our vets, all of the countries in the Asian Racing Federation with the exception of Saudi Arabia have no medication. We have horses that run back in a week, sometimes in three days, no Bute, no Lasix, no medication. Even 2-year-olds in the States that run on Bute and Lasix, I wonder now if any of that is necessary. In this part of the world the climate can be tough, yet horses run as often or more often as they do in the states. America needs to take a hard look at medication policies.
Have you made any cultural faux pas in your new home? I’ve been very careful, though I was a little sloppy with my chopsticks at first. I have learned some customs. The number 8 is lucky, 28 is lucky. Four is death. In fact in a lot of office buildings if you get on a lift there is no fourth floor.
Any message for the racing public in the United States? The message would be that they try to open up and appreciate racing from this part of the world, much like I wish Asian people would appreciate American racing. When I got here in late April 2007, there was very little interest in the Kentucky Derby. It was a major event, and this is a horse loving part of the world, yet the biggest interest was that the queen was going to attend the Derby. There was no interest in the horses.
By Ray PaulickTo hear Carl Pascarella tell it, you’d think corporate marketers would have lined up from Louisville, Ky., all the way to New York’s Madison Avenue to bid on the Triple Crown sponsorship that Visa USA dropped in 1995 after a 10-year run. The relationship between the Triple Crown and Visa ended the same year Pascarella retired as the credit card giant’s chief executive officer.
Pascarella, speaking at a Tuesday afternoon session on Marketing & the Customer Experience at the 32nd Asian Racing Conference in Tokyo, used the familiar introduction from ABC’s “Wide World of Sports” to describe sponsorship of American racing’s highest-profile series, which begins with the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, continues two weeks later in the Preakness, and concludes three weeks after that with the Belmont Stakes.
First, there is the “thrill of victory,” Pascarella said. “From a sponsor’s standpoint, nothing gives you more of a thrill than the Kentucky Derby winner driving down the Preakness stretch with a three- or four-length lead and knowing, as a sponsor, that you’ve got legs, with another three or four weeks to promote in and outside the world of sports. It was something we could use from April on through to June.”
On the other hand, he said, there is “the agony of defeat. In six of eight years we had horses that won the first two legs and didn’t win the Belmont.” That defeat eliminated the possibility of further promotions congratulating the winner of the Visa Triple Crown Challenge and the accompanying $5-million bonus, as well as any additional races the winner might compete in, including the Travers Stakes or Breeders’ Cup.
The Triple Crown was one of several world-class sponsorships for Visa in the sports and entertainment world. “Each one of them,” Pascarella said, “had a common focus on a couple of very important things: understanding who their fan and audience was; and secondly, they understood how to drive value to that fan base. They had an unwavering commitment to both things. At Visa, we looked more to sports as being the pinnacle of entertainment for fans, or our customers. No other form of entertainment brings the same kind of excitement or elation as sports does.
“The sports that are best for our sponsorship,” Pascarella continued, “put the fan in the center of the activity. They create deeper relationships because it’s a fan-centric approach. They give the fan a way to get into the event itself.”
Pascarella recalled how much value he was able to give to Visa’s best customers — bankers and merchants — who would come to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby. “We’d bring them on a backside tour of Churchill Downs on the day before the Derby,” he said. “They’d see the horses who would be racing in the Derby the next day, meet trainers like Bobby Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas, and these people felt like they were part of it all. We were giving them something special because of a sponsorship that was invaluable. That’s what we were paying for, that extra feeling that allowed our customers to get inside the sport.
“We’re not looking at fan numbers, we are looking at fans who are engaged, fans who will be engaged with us and our products and services,” Pascarella said. “We look at selecting and evaluating sponsorships based on being able to drive consumer behavior. How have we lifted the brand, how have we changed behavior, how have we made the consumer closer to us as a result of the association? The more we win, the more we put into a sponsorship. But it’s not just about the money. It’s about the relationships you can build with your sponsor and what you can give your sponsor in return. You need mutually beneficial objectives.”
Interestingly, while Visa dropped its sponsorship of the Triple Crown, it entered into a five-year agreement with Churchill Downs to sponsor the Kentucky Derby. No company has stepped forward to sponsor the Triple Crown since Visa’s exit from the series. One reason may have been a decision by the New York Racing Association to end its association with NBC Sports, and put the Belmont on ABC/ESPN. Another may have been fragmentation within the three tracks that comprise Triple Crown Productions and a power struggle over how sponsorship revenues were divided. Currently, of course, they have nothing to divide from a Triple Crown title sponsor.
Pascarella, now an executive adviser to TPG Capital, also cautioned racing associations that the current economic climate will cause nearly every major corporation to reevaluate its advertising, marketing and sponsorship budgets. “Every economist projects a very deep and long recession,” he said. “That means your sponsors are going to be under a great deal of pressure. You need to reach out to them, even though your revenues also are going to be under pressure. If you reach out to them, and say, ‘How do we work together to get through this?’ that will go a long way.”
BRANDING GURU DAVID AAKER , professor emeritus of marketing strategy at the Haas School of Business at the University of California-Berkeley, talked about how racing can build its brand.
At a time when brand trustworthiness and quality perceptions of most brands are down significantly in the minds of the public, Aaker said there are opportunities to improve branding through increased energy. He cited the Nintendo video game brand as one recent phenomenon in the branding world. Five years ago, Aker said, Nintendo ranked 165th among brand names in Japan, moved up to 65th three y ears ago, fifth two years ago, and now ranks as the country’s leading brand, thanks to the energy created by the Nintendo Wii platform and games.
He cited five other very diverse brands that have energized themselves in recent years: 1) the Memphis Redbirds minor league baseball team; 2) the Indianapolis Motor Speedway; 3) PGA Tour golf; 4) Harley Davidson; and 5) Avon cosmetics.
All of those brands used one of two methods: energizing the business itself, or finding something with energy that is interesting and involving and attach it to the brand. “Both options are really powerful,” Aaker said.
The Memphis Redbirds, Indianapolis Speedway and Harley Davidson energized their brand by engaging their customers in multiple activities that built on the customer experience. The PGA Tour and Avon tied themselves to something with energy. The PGA Tour used Tiger Woods to its best advantage, and Avon linked its products to a breast cancer crusade and created the Avon Walk for Breast Cancer, with millions of people engaged each year. Similarly, Aaker said, Lowe’s home improvement stores attach their brand to Habitat for Humanity. In the case of Avon, he said, “Breast cancer is so important an issue and involving to the target audience that it provides Avon a way to get energy that it could never do through their products and services.”
Aaker said companies seeking to strengthen their brand should “find role models, companies in related or unrelated industries…someone who’s done it well with a brand people are talking about. What can you learn from them?”
In addition, he said, self-reflection is necessary. “What about the customer experience is boring or unpleasant? How can you mitigate that? What can be added to en rich and improve the customer experience.”
To find what he calls “branded energizers” like Avon’s breast cancer campaign, Aaker said companies should examine “what existing program has energy that fits your brand and can be connected to your brand…programs that aren’t part of the experience people are currently buying? What new program with energy can be developed that fits the brand and can be connected to the brand?”
“You have one of the most exciting events in sports and entertainment,” Aaker said. “But you need to ask yourself, ‘How can I add energy to my brand?’”
TELEVISION ADVERTISEMENTS PROMOTING RACING around the world were shown to the group and audience members were asked to vote on their favorites. The ads were divided into five categories: Celebrating the Horse; Sex and Glamour; The Punt; A Good Laugh; and The Buzz.Most provocative were ads from Australia promoting sex and glamour. Other countries featured included France, Turkey, Japan, Hong Kong, Germany, Ireland and the United States (two ads from Santa Anita were featured). Details tomorrow on the winning ad.
The challenges that confront racing seem to be the sport’s universal language, and potential solutions, it seems, are similar from one continent to another. Winfried Englebrecht-Bresges, CEO of the Hong Kong Jockey Club and chairman of the Asian Racing Federation, outlined those challenges and proposed some solutions during his opening address of the 32nd Asian Racing Conference in Tokyo on Tuesday morning.
Looking back on the last conference, held in Dubai in January 2007, Englebrecht-Bresges referred to the “racing without borders” theme that required a strategic plan to deal with the harmonization of regulatory issues and business strategies. Some progress has been made on the regulatory front, he said, but many hurdles remain before international commingling of pari-mutuel wagers becomes commonplace. “It must be a winning proposition for all stakesholders,” Englebrecht-Bresges said, including customers, governments and operators. "Currently," he said, "we are not structured correctly to deal with the challenge."
Among the hurdles are laws in some countries, most notably Hong Kong and Japan, that prohibit or restrict commingled betting; double taxation on commingled bets; marketing and sponsorship issues; TV and data rights questions, and software challenges among tote companies that will require investment and commitment by the various stakeholders. “We will struggle if we won’t change,” he said.
Englebrecht-Bresges outlined what he called “three guiding principles” to address the challenges. Racing must exert influence on the regulatory side, he said, because “the integrity of the sport is a fundamental issue. Drugs will bring the sport to its knees if we don’t proactively fight this problem.” He referenced cycling and how the burden of doping could cost the sport dearly in lost television rights if not addressed.
Secondly, Englebrecht-Bresges said, the industry must facilitate the sharing of best practices in racing and in other outside industries by bringing together stakeholders who have common interests.
Finally, he said, bigger organizations must mentor smaller organizations, especially those countries who are in the early stages of expanding their racing and/or breeding industries.
While some countries are in that early stage, Englebrecht-Bresges said, overall there is stagnancy for the Asian Racing Federation members, with six-year projections that show pari-mutuel wagering turnover declining while other forms of gambling enjoy moderate growth. “We will be a dinosaur,” he said, adding, “it’s not that we are unattractive. But we have to offer different value propositions.”
Not surprisingly, those value propositions are predicated on knowing what customers want, especially new customers that racing needs if it is to survive. He called for all jurisdictions to conduct strategic assessments, and outlined some of the findings the Hong Kong Jockey Club discovered in its own research. Non-racing fans see no relevance in the current racing schedule/fixtures, programs and bet types; much of the activities are not appealing to young people, women, families, and the middle class. Racing lacks innovation, and has a poor approach to its “channel strategy” and customer loyalty programs. Furthermore, he said, industry fragmentation is a key reason for slow response to the challenges.
Regarding channel strategy, Englebrecht-Bresges said racing is “catering to its current customers” through its web sites, where new customers “get lost. We need an integrated channel strategy” that will appeal to existing, new and potential customers, he added.
Englebrecht-Bresges said racing must reach the next generation, but that the strategy of attack must be powered by customers, especially the new customers with which the industry must learn how to better communicate.
“We are in a race,” said the German native who has been with the Hong Kong Jockey Club for 10 years. “Is it a race we can win?”
Englebrecht-Bresges then showed a slide of America’s new president-elect, Barack Obama, featuring the campaign theme of change that stated “Yes, we can.”
“I say," Englebrecht-Bresges concluded, "‘Yes, we must.’"
THE REST OF TUESDAY MORNING’S conference program was baffling. Following Engelbrecht-Bresges was Hiroshi Okuda, who rose through the ranks of the Toyota Motor Corporation to become president and later chairman and is now chairman of the board of governors for the Japan Racing Association.
It’s possible Okuda brought the wrong speech to the Asian Racing Conference, for he devoted his entire talk to "global warming issues." I guess if we all rode horses instead of automobiles, we could help develop a low carbon society, as Okuda said is necessary. But I’m not sure what major impact racing executives could have on global warming.
If that talk didn’t cause the conference focus to jump the tracks, the next two certainly did. Robyn Williams (no, not that one), described as a "mad cap science presenter" from Australia, enlightened (?) the audience about how the world will be changing due to technology. You know, robotics, energy and transportation. Hell, I learned that from watching too many episodes of "The Jetsons" as a kid. In truth, Williams was at least entertaining, and would have made a good lunch-time speaker. But he added little to the serious issues at hand among the Asian Racing Federation delegates.
Andrew Main, the morning’s final speaker, likewise, had little to say linking racing to his area of expertise as business editor of The Australian newspaper.
Filling the opening morning with three speakers who had little relevance to racing left many in the audience scratching their heads and wondering who thought this was a good idea.
The world’s biggest purses have never been available to racehorse owners from around the globe, but that all may be changing soon when the Japan Racing Association makes an anticipated announcement later this month that it will begin licensing foreign owners as early as 2009.
News of the JRA’s expected policy change was a hot “hallway topic” at the Asian Racing Conference, which officially began in Tokyo on Monday night with opening ceremonies that featured a traditional lion dance, Japanese music, and a handful of speeches from Asian Racing Federation officers, JRA officials and the minister of Japan’s department of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, under whose umbrella the JRA falls.
Presentations and panel discussions on a host of subjects begin on Tuesday. The conference, the world’s largest international gathering of its kind, will attract more than 800 people from as many as 35 countries. The Asian Racing Federation, which organizes the conference, has 22 member nations, including two new members, the Saigon Racing Club of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam and the Jockey Club of Russia.
Winfried Engelbrecht-Bresges, chairman of the Asian Racing Federation and CEO of the Hong Kong Jockey Club, warned the gathering of the ominous problems the racing industry faces in light of the current global economic crisis and the growing competition in the gambling market. “This is not a gentle breeze that we face,” Engelbrecht-Bresges said. “In Hong Kong it’s what we would call a typhoon.”
The licensing of foreign owners became a big issue two years ago when Sheikh Mohammed was originally denied a license for Darley Japan, which operates a stallion and breeding farm on the Japanese island of Hokkaido. Eventually, Darley was awarded a JRA owner’s license in the name of its Japanese manager, veterinarian Riki Takahashi (a former JRA employee), but it was relinquished in December 2007 when Takahashi abruptly left Darley after 15 years.
Details of the new licensing rules are not confirmed, but it is expected that foreign applicants will be required to meet the same financial and personal wealth standards the JRA sets for Japanese owners who compete for the racing world’s highest purse structure. Owners will not be required to have a Japanese base for breeding, however.
It is likely those foreigners approved for a JRA owner’s license will have to buy or breed five Japanese foals to fill their initial stable, and thereafter maintain a minimum percentage of Japanese-bred horses within the stable. That rule, which some may see as a continuation of the JRA’s historic protectionist policies favoring Japanese breeders, could be a boon to the foal sale held annually in July by the Japan Race Horse Association. The sale was launched by the Yoshida family, which for decades has dominated Japanese racing and breeding.
Darley, almost certainly will be issued a JRA owner’s license, but it will be interesting to see which other large-scale international Thoroughbred operations will apply. According to Teruya Yoshida of Shadai Farm, the Niarchos and Wertheimer families have been breeding mares in Japan for a number of years and could be among the early entities to apply for a JRA license.
The rule change is not expected to allow horses that began their careers outside of Japan to participate in JRA races, with the exception of graded stakes, which are now open to foreign competitors. It wasn’t so long ago that the only graded stakes open to international horses was the Japan Cup.
UPDATE: Louis Romanet of France, who chairs the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities, reminded me that the JRA’s agreement to open up the licensing of owners to non-Japanese was part of the agreement that allowed JRA races to be recognized in Part 1 of the International Catalogue Standards book published by the International Catalogue Standards Committee. That means JRA graded and stakes races are recognized for black-type in Thoroughbred auction catalogues around the world.
SPEAKING OF TERUYA YOSHIDA, the master of Shadai Farm said the recent turnabout by the once-shy stallion War Emblem is nothing short of a “miracle.” War Emblem, the 2002 Kentucky Derby winner who was purchased for $17 million by Shadai from the late Prince Ahmed’s Thoroughbred Corp., barely had 40 foals from his first three crops, and produced no foals in 2007 or 2008.
This year, with the help of horse behavior specialist Sue McDonnell of the University of Pennsylvania’s New Bolton Center, War Emblem appears to have overcome his breeding shyness, and now has about 30 mares in foal, according to Yoshida. “We are breeding him every month, at least one mare per month,” Yoshida told the Paulick Report. “We hope to breed him to as many as 60 or 70 mares next year.”
The improvement in War Emblem’s attitude (the problem was never infertility, but disinterest in breeding) could not have come at a better time. Just last month, War Emblem was represented by his first Grade 1 winner when Black Emblem won the Shuka Sho at Kyoto Racecourse.
“War Emblem’s best horses are just like he was,” Yoshida said. “They are very fast early and are dangerous if they are on the lead by themselves.”
YESTERDAY’S REPORT FROM THE TOKYO RACE COURSE mentioned an encounter with Michael Dickinson, the former trainer and founder of Tapeta Footings who is exhibiting his product at the Asian Racing Conference and appearing in a panel discussion focused on synthetic tracks. Dickinson, in his first visit to Japan, is notorious for walking turf and dirt courses to get a feel for their composition, and was eyeing the Tokyo Race Course grass surface in hopes of taking a stroll after the races were completed on Sunday.
The "mad genius" did, indeed, test the grass surface, calling it a "very firm" course. Did anyone really think he would come this far without walking the course?
By Ray PaulickI knew I wasn’t in Kentucky anymore when I went out for an early morning walk and came across a group of about 20 people standing at a nearby intersection. It was only a two-lane road, and there wasn’t a car in sight in any direction, yet everyone stood patiently for what seemed an eternity, waiting for the crosswalk light to change from red to green.
I resisted the temptation that any American who’s ever jaywalked across a city street surely would have had.
When the light changed, everyone broke into a brisk walk, as if, all of a sudden, they were in a hurry. It is one of the strange idiosyncrasies of the people of Japan, this nation of talking elevators, American fast-food, on-time trains and silly television commercials. Its natives honor Japanese laws, yet many of them complain privately about the nature of their traditions.
I’ve come to Tokyo ostensibly to cover the 32nd Asian Racing Conference, which began on Sunday with a trip to the Tokyo Race Course and runs through Thursday. (The time frame of some of my reports may seem a bit odd since I’ll be writing in the past tense about days that haven’t yet arrived in most of the U.S., since Tokyo is plus 14 hours from Eastern Standard Time.)
In truth, however, I’ve decided to cash in some frequent flier miles and come to Japan to meet and hear from officials representing racing countries that have faced challenges, worked cooperatively and developed strategies they hope will succeed and help them grow and prosper. I’ve come for a shot of optimism after nearly drowning in the sea of pessimism that saturates American racing these days, where the efforts seem to focus on stopping the bleeding and the only strategy relies on subsidies from other forms of gambling. Most American tracks have given up on the idea that they can be competitive anymore.
One example: In Hong Kong, where the stock market has fallen by nearly 50% in the current financial crisis, betting is off by about 6%. But the Hong Kong Jockey Club, instead of wringing their hands over the dreadful economy, has developed a new program to give bettors a 10% rebate on individual losing bets that exceed a certain amount.
Another story: When on-track business peaked at Japan Racing Association tracks in the mid 1990s, the JRA looked at its aging flagship track, Tokyo Race Course, and rebuilt the main grandstand, giving it a much more inviting design, one that in some ways resembles the Forum Shops of Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. When they began losing fans, their strategy was fixed on giving on-track customers a better experience.
There are more than 600 delegates here from at least 30 countries. The Asian Racing Federation, which presents the conference, consists of racing nations from Asia, Australia/New Zealand, Africa and the Persian Gulf. These countries represent 36% of the world’s prize money, 32% of the international foal crops and 47% of global wagering on pari-mutuel racing. Europeans and Americans are welcome to attend the conference, though only a handful of them do. Only five Americans are scheduled to be here, two of whom are journalists.
Among those I ran into at the track was Michael Dickinson and his partner, Joan Wakefield, who are here as exhibitors for Tapeta Footings, the synthetic surface developed by Dickinson that has been used so successfully at, among other places, Golden Gate Fields, Presque Isle Downs and the Fair Hill Training Center in the U.S., and as a training track in Dubai. Dickinson, of course, is hoping to find new clients among the Asian Racing Federation’s membership.
It was the couple’s first visit to Japan, and as someone who’s been to Tokyo a number of times for the Japan Cup and other major races, I gave them a walking tour of the massive, yet elegant new building. They were amazed at the cleanliness and bright, friendly design, the variety of comfort levels, and the size and length of the nine-story main structure, which is nearly a quarter-mile long.
In the bowels of the grandstand, there is a maze of tunnels for horses to use as they leave the paddock, go onto one of the three tracks, or return to the stable area. We took one tunnel up to the winner’s circle, where Dickinson gazed wistfully out onto the main turf course and dirt track, desperately wanting to walk the courses to get a feel for them. The former trainer is a man long obsessed with the conditions and safety of racing surfaces, and his new calling as a proponent of synthetic tracks comes to him naturally.
“Do you think it would be okay for me to walk out there, after all the races have run, just to see what the dirt and grass tracks are like?” Dickinson asked. And he wasn’t kidding.
I’ll try to find out tomorrow whether the man known as the “mad genius” found his way out there to sample the footing of the Tokyo turf and dirt. I’ll be reporting from inside the meeting and presentation rooms of the conference, and working the unofficial meetings and break rooms for the latest news and gossip throughout the racing world.
I’ve come here in search of some optimism for our sport, to learn more about how other countries have achieved their success. I’ll be disappointed if I return home empty handed.
There are many ways to look at this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships from a business and sporting standpoint, and not all examinations are going to lead to the same destination.
The most important question is whether or not the 2008 Breeders’ Cup was a success or failure. Was the decision to hold the Cup at a racetrack with a synthetic surface a wise move? Has the expansion of the world championships from eight races in one day to 14 races in two days helped or diluted the event?
How is success or failure of the Breeders’ Cup measured? Is it attendance, pari-mutuel handle, revenue, TV ratings, racing results, international participation?
It’s difficult to measure some of these factors because the circumstances of the Breeders’ Cup have changed so much between 2008 and previous years, rendering it an apples to oranges comparison. Making those comparisons even more challenging are the current economic conditions that have hit all levels of society this year, from Wall Street bankers to blue-collar workers. Virtually every industry is feeling a severe impact.
Putting that aside, last year’s Breeders’ Cup at Monmouth Park was the first time the event was stretched over two days, and handle totaled just over $147 million ($31.5 on the Friday program and $115.7 on Saturday) despite poor weather and messy track conditions (a near monsoon came through New Jersey during Friday’s program and the track was very sloppy on Saturday). This year’s two-day handle increased by only 5.5%, to $155.5 million ($47.9 million on Friday, $107.6 million on Saturday), despite perfect weather and the addition of three new Breeders’ Cup races. Comparisons are for the whole cards, including non-Breeders’ Cup races run at Monmouth Park last year and Santa Anita this year.
Steve Crist’s weekend blog at DRF.com (Friday, Saturday), which detailed the race-by-race betting figures for the last three years of the Breeders’ Cup, shows that handle dropped sharply on the races moved from the Saturday card in 2007 to Friday (Filly & Mare Turf, Juvenile Fillies, Ladies’ Classic) this year. That makes perfect sense, since there were fewer people betting Friday’s program this year than there were betting Saturday’s program last year. But there were five Breeders’ Cup races on Friday this year, when the all of the filly and mare races were packaged as "Filly Friday" or "Ladies Day," compared with three in 2007, leading to the increase in Friday-to-Friday comparisons.
Handle dropped virtually across the board on Saturday’s races this year, with the day’s total handle declining by 7%, from $115.7 million in 2007 to $107.6 million in 2008. It was the lowest handle on a Saturday Breeders’ Cup since 1999, when $100.3 million was bet on the races from Gulfstream Park.
Santa Anita’s on-track handle of $11.8 million was down almost 10% from the $12.7 million wagered on-track at Monmouth Park in 2007 and a steep decline of 33% from the 2006 Saturday Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs, when $18.3 million was bet on-track during the one-day event.
Saturday’s on-track business was the lowest for a Breeders’ Cup since 1997, when $11.2 million was wagered at Hollywood Park. The last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita, in 2003, one-day on-track handle totaled $16.3 million. This year’s two-day on-track handle was $18.7 million.
The economic climate has not been good for racing in 2008. Most major race meetings have experienced double-digit declines in business. For the Breeders’ Cup to increase handle from 2007 is an accomplishment, though not a major one when considering both the additional races and superior weather conditions.
It is difficult to say there has not been a dilution of the event based on the early evidence. Do the positive benefits outweigh any negatives? I think it’s too early to tell.
Attendance was up this year from 2007, but that should have been a no-brainer following the poor weather at Monmouth Park. Breeders’ Cup officials got greedy with ticket prices and, to their credit, have admitted as much. The increase in prices was outrageous, especially for the Friday program, and it is hoped they will be scaled back considerably next year.
TV ratings have not yet been reported, but it’s hard to imagine they will be up from 2007.
The racing was spectacular on both days – and safe. More than a few people commented at the conclusion of the Breeders’ Cup that no one died or suffered any serious injuries, a sad commentary on the bumpy road the sport has been traveling in recent years. The Pro-Ride synthetic track was fast and safe, though it appeared to compromise some horses who had only raced on conventional dirt tracks and help those horses with synthetic track or turf experience.
Synthetic surfaces have increased the difficulty of handicapping, and running the traditional Breeders’ Cup dirt races on the Pro-Ride track may have led some big players to downsize their bets. The Classic, according to Crist’s figures, handled $24.3 million in bets this year, down from $30.1 million at Monmouth Park last year and $37.7 million at Churchill Downs in 2006.
The dominance of European horses was widely embraced by Breeders’ Cup officials, including president Greg Avioli, who sees international participation as the last, best hope for further growth in pari-mutuel handle. The success of Raven’s Pass and four other European-based winners on Saturday’s program will ensure enthusiastic participation from European horsemen when the races return to Santa Anita in 2009, but there is no guarantee that’s going to mean greater interest among horseplayers outside of North America. There is a conceivable backlash among American breeders who provide the financial foundation of the Breeders’ Cup program through foal and stallion nominations. Some of them view this as an American event, and they would be happier if the considerable purse money stayed in this country. On the other hand, those breeders who want to reach an international audience with their sale yearlings may cheer the success of European-based runners.
The Breeders’ Cup will conduct a post-mortem on the event to determine what worked and what didn’t. Many have said the Oak Tree Racing Association and Santa Anita did a terrific job from a logistical standpoint, and there may not be a more telegenic racing facility in America in late October than the "Great Race Place." There were many people critical of the decision to hold the event at Santa Anita in consecutive years, but those critics surely are fewer in number following this year’s Breeders’ Cup
Provided that no major changes are made in the format, holding the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita next year will be more of an apples to apples comparison, allowing Cup officials to assess whether or not the expansion from one day to two was a sound decision.
By Ray PaulickTop to bottom, this may not be the most talented group of Breeders’ Cup horses that’s ever been assembled, but it’s the biggest handicapping challenge I can ever recall, especially considering new races like the Marathon, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile and Juvenile Turf.
My handicapping philosophy is to beat the favorite whenever possible, since the average percentage of winning favorites is around 33%. You might discern from the following selections that I think the Europeans are going to have a big day on Saturday. The factors leading me to believe that will be true are 1) the synthetic surface that some Europeans train on; 2) the tighter medication rules that specifically ban anabolic steroids for the first time; 3) the quality of European horses being sent to this year’s event.
Here’s my advance prognostication on the day’s nine championship races. Good luck and safe racing to all.
Special note: please be sure to check back in to the Paulick Report, beginning around 3 p.m. Eastern, for my live blog of Filly Friday. I’ll also be live blogging Saturday’s nine races, beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern.
Marathon
This looks like a two-horse race between European runner Sixties Icon and Zappa (whose namesake, the late rocker Frank Zappa, was the founder of the Mothers of Invention and was a real-life sixties icon). That works for me, but it’s an all chalk exacta. I give the edge to Sixties Icon, in part because of jockey Frankie Dettori’s experience edge at mile and a half races. Zappa is sharp and may try to steal the race under Garrett Gomez. Muhannak has plenty of synthetic track experience in Europe and likes the distance. Cedar Mountain will be closing late.
Selections: 1-Sixties Icon 2-Zappa 3-Muhannak 4- Cedar Mountain
Turf Sprint One of the great things about the Breeders’ Cup is finding a horse you absolutely love and then discovering that it’s a longshot. That’s the case with Only Answer, a French-based filly in the care of the legendary horseman Andre Fabre, who is in top echelon of Breeders’ Cup trainers. I think she has an excellent chance to beat the boys in this spot, and Santa Anita’s ace morning line maker Jeff Tufts has her pegged at 20-1 on the morning line. Jockey Olivier Peslier, in my opinion, is as good a big-race rider as there is in the world, and he knows this filly well. The downhill turf course is a tricky one for horse and rider, with the run across the main track causing difficulty for some. It’s one of the best “horses for the course” plays in racing, which makes local runners California Flag and Get Funky formidable challengers in here. Fleeting Spirit has a lot of class, as does Diabolical, either of whom are good enough on their best days to win. I’m going for the price play.
Dirt Mile
The status of Mast Track is in doubt as I write this, and I would be very surprised if trainer and owner Robert Frankel runs him on Saturday. If he is scratched, that’s going to make things a lot easier for Well Armed, a Tiznow gelding who seems to have found a perfect spot here, though I’d prefer him to have drawn more of an inside post position. The Eoin Harty runner can go to the lead or rate, depending on the circumstances, and the mile distance suits him perfectly. Surf Cat should be more effective at this distance, too, after running dull races in his last two starts. Bruce Headley has tightened the veteran up with some quick works. No one seems to have more confidence in his horse than Wayne Catalano, and there’s a lot to like about Lewis Michael, who grabs the advantageous rail post. Pyro’s a tough one to assess in here. His only synthetic track try at Keeneland was a disaster, but all synthetic tracks aren’t the same.
Selections: 1-Well Armed 2-Surf Cat 3-Lewis Michael 4-Pyro
Turf Mile
Irish-bred filly Goldikova has made few mistakes in her eight-race career for French trainer Freddie Head, who has enough confidence to run her against colts here at her best distance. She’s drawn perfectly in the four post and has big-race rider Olivier Peslier in the saddle. It’s not the strongest Mile field we’ve seen. Shakis is a game old-timer who always finishes with a rush. If Alan Garcia can avoid traffic problems from the rail, he won’t be far away at the finish. Kip Deville ran a puzzler last time out in Canada on a yielding track for Rick Dutrow. I’d throw that race out as he goes for a defense of his crown. U S Ranger doesn’t win very many but usually gets up for a share of the money and has been facing tough company all year. Whatsthescript got an impossible post position on the outside.
Selections: 1-Goldikova 2-Shakis 3-Kip Deville 4-U S Ranger
Juvenile
Post positions really come into play here, with the two horses I like the most, Bushranger and Midshipman, drawn way outside, a distinct disadvantage in the relatively short run to the first turn. Munnings, who has chased juvenile division leader Vineyard Haven (not entered in the Breeders’ Cup by trainer Robert Frankel) in his last two starts, draws the much friendlier rail post for his first try around two turns. That’s enough to give him the edge in this spot for trainer Todd Pletcher, especially in a race without much early speed. The son of Speightstown should get the best trip under John Velazquez. Bushranger may be the best horse and he’ll have to be overcome his 11 post. Street Hero has been steady since breaking his maiden in June and remains in top form for Myung Kwon Cho.
Juvenile Turf Westphalia looks to me like the obvious choice here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is bet down to near favoritism from his 5-1 morning line. He’s in top form and has had a bit of a rest since his last win at Doncaster in mid-September. Coronet of a Baron obviously has is precocious and talented, and the shift from synthetic to turf by trainer Eoin Harty is an interesting move. Darley already has Midshipman going in the Juvenile and this gives them a good chance to sweep the two races. Of course, arch-rival Coolmore has Bushranger in the Juvenile and Westphalia in here, giving them a strong hand as well. The Darley-Coolmore rivalry will be interesting to follow throughout the two days. Bittel Road is unbeaten on turf and is the morning line choice, but he hasn’t seen this kind of competition yet. Donativum is in the more than capable hands of trainer John Gosden, who knows how to have a horse at peak form when it matters most.
Selections: 1-Westphalia 2-Coronet of a Baron 3-Bittel Road 4-Donativum
Sprint Smallest number of runners in this race since 1986, obviously a byproduct of two new races: the Filly and Mare Sprint and Dirt Mile. I doubt that defending champ Midnight Lute scared anyone away based on his only start of the year, a dismal 10th in the Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. He’s worked sensationally for Bob Baffert since then, but it’s hard to see him up sharp enough to beat the likes of Street Boss or In Summation. I give the clear nod here to the California horses, led by the Bruce Headley-trained Street Boss. My intuition tells me Bruce Headley didn’t have the son of Street Cry cranked to the max for the Ancient Title when second to Cost of Freedom, and recent works suggest he’s ready to roll here. In Summation is a thorough professional who can be counted on to run his race. Midnight Lute will be running late. Fatal Bullet has the best chance of upsetting the local horses’ applecart.
Selections: 1-Street Boss 2- In Summation 3-Midnight Lute 4-Fatal Bullet
Turf
While Europe’s bigshots were locking horns in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Oct. 5, Mike de Kock was bringing the top-class Eagle Mountain back to the races from a fractured pelvis and year layoff at Newmarket. The Rock of Gibraltor colt won the comeback, a Group 3 race at Newmarket, and some big money subsequently came in on the horse with a British bookmaker to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The former Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien runner looked sharp in a morning spin at Santa Anita is primed for a big effort. Soldier of Fortune comes off a hard-fought defeat for O’Brien in the Arc. That was just his third race of the year and he might have another good one in him. Winchester turned in a monstrous performance at Arlington Park to win the Secretariat for Dermot Weld, far surpassing his European form. This is a big step up, but he showed a fondness for American style racing in that effort. Conduit completes my all- European superfecta. American turf horses appear weak again this year, but let’s not forget how English Channel romped in the 2007 Turf over supposedly superior Europeans.
Selections: 1-Eagle Mountain 2-Soldier of Fortune 3-Winchester 4-Conduit
Classic
By the time the finale rolls around, we should have a pretty good idea how European turf horses have adapted to Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride surface. I don’t have the benefit of knowing that right now, so I can only speculate how Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass will take to the track. But I guess we can say the same thing about Curlin, who has trained well on the track but never raced on a synthetic strip. Curlin may be the best horse we’ve seen in the last 10 years, in terms of his accomplishments if not his brilliance. But based on his last two victories over relatively weak competition, I think he’s beatable here. But who will beat him? Go Between, a synthetic track specialist who’s logged thousands of miles this year going from coast to coast? Casino Drive, the unbeaten but lightly raced, Japanese-trained sibling to two previous Belmont Stakes winners? Colonel John, the best 3-year-old in training following the retirement of Big Brown? The Aidan O’Brien duo of Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator, who have combined for nine Group 1 victories on European turf this year? All have a realistic chance, but I’m taking the John Gosden-trained Raven’s Pass for the upset under Frankie Dettori. The Elusive Quality 3-year-old colt hasn’t gone beyond a mile, but Gosden knows from his previous experience in California that most top-class Europeans can stretch their ability out in the U.S. Raven’s Pass has had a month off since defeating Henrythenavigator in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and is in absolute top form. Curlin will run hard as always, but he’s had a long year for trainer Steve Asmussen. Go Between is a steady performer for Mott, who’s handled him intelligently all year. Colonel John may be the best 3-year-old, but the jury is still out on how good this year’s sophomore crop really is.
Selections: 1-Raven’s Pass 2-Curlin 3-Go Between 4-Colonel John
Cash in a couple of T-bills and get ready to make some serious, if not totally sound, investments on this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships. You’re sure to at least have some fun, which is more than you’ve had watching the Dow Jones Industrial Average the last several weeks.
The Breeders’ Cup betting menu has my head spinning with win, place and show wagers, exactas, trifectas, superfectas (at a dime a pop!), daily doubles, picks threes, pick fours, pick sixes, and even a couple of super high fives. If math isn’t your strong suit, Breeders’ Cup officials have even put together a special wagering calculator to see how much some of those bets will cost. They’re even offering free past performances, courtesy of Equibase. All account wagering companies will be taking bets or you can go to your local simulcast outlet. If you’re a novice, read some of these helpful handicapping hints.
For those interested in other people’s opinions, I’ve handicapped Friday’s races below (check back on Friday to get the Paulick Report lowdown on Saturday’s nine Breeders’ Cup races). I cut my teeth handicapping on the West Coast for eight years with Daily Racing Form in the 1980s, and have covered 22 of the 24 Breeders’ Cups . But it’s not widely known that I began my career in the business as an underaged jockey riding competitively on the Northern Illinois bush-corral circuit!
In my country, Mr. Funaki, old men are asleep by midnight.
which have plagued cycling and some other sports, are being used in racing. Stewart nodded to the affirmative. "How big a problem is EPO?" Sinclair asked. "I’d say it’s widepread," Stewart said. That sent many Asian Racing Federation delegates straight to the bar for a stiff one.
It wasn’t that easy, though. To give rebates, the HKJC had to cut a deal with government that gave them the flexibility to offer innovative programs like rebates. The agreement worked both ways, with the HKJC guaranteeing HK$8 billion in annual revenue to the government, more than they’d gotten the previous year. The HKJC wanted to expand the number of race days from 78 a year and the number of commingled simulcasts from 10. The government didn’t budge on those requests.
Some Japanese racing insiders have said he has sold most of his horses and others have suggested the global credit crunch may have dealt him a severe blow. Last time I saw him was in the paddock of the Tokyo Race Course at the Japan Cup a couple of year ago, where he was nattily dressed as usual. Sekiguchi has had some ups and downs in his racing and business career (famously failing to pay Keeneland on some yearling purchases prior to buying FuPeg for $4 million, and later getting fired by the company he started), and he always seems to land on his feet.
Raji Jayaraju then sang the praises of the synthetic surface installed at the Singapore Turf Club track where he is senior manager. Singapore’s new track has been very useful because of the heavy rain they get in Singapore that often leaves the turf course extremely soggy. Jockeys and trainers said in a video that the synthetic track was terrific (under threat of a caning?).
Your biggest challenge?
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idiosyncrasies of the people of Japan, this nation of talking elevators, American fast-food, on-time trains and silly television commercials. Its natives honor Japanese laws, yet many of them complain privately about the nature of their traditions.
Among those I ran into at the track was Michael Dickinson and his partner, Joan Wakefield, who are here as exhibitors for Tapeta Footings, the synthetic surface developed by Dickinson that has been used so successfully at, among other places, Golden Gate Fields, Presque Isle Downs and the Fair Hill Training Center in the U.S., and as a training track in Dubai. Dickinson, of course, is hoping to find new clients among the Asian Racing Federation’s membership.
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In the bowels of the grandstand, there is a maze of tunnels for horses to use as they leave the paddock, go onto one of the three tracks, or return to the stable area. We took one tunnel up to the winner’s circle, where Dickinson gazed wistfully out onto the main turf course and dirt track, desperately wanting to walk the courses to get a feel for them. The former trainer is a man long obsessed with the conditions and safety of racing surfaces, and his new calling as a proponent of synthetic tracks comes to him naturally.