Archive for the ‘Horse Racing’ Category

By Ray Paulick

When IEAH Stables bought an interest in 2007 Remsen Stakes winner Court Vision from WinStar Farm earlier this year, the son of Gulch had the look of a Derby horse. He eventually lived up to that billing, though his Grade 1 Derby victory came not on the dirt at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May but on the Hollywood Park turf on the last Sunday in November. Under Ramon Dominguez, who earlier in the day won the Grade 1 Matriarch Stakes with Godolphin Racing’s Cocoa Beach, Court Vision made an eye-catching run from last at the top of the stretch to win the Hollywood Derby by three quarters of a length, defeating Cowboy Cal and Midships.

Trained by Bill Mott, Court Vision covered a mile and one-quarter on firm turf in 2:01.43 as the 7-2 second choice in the betting. It was his fifth win in 12 starts and first in a Grade 1 event.

After winning three of four starts as a 2-year-old, Court Vision regressed somewhat on the road to the Triple Crown, finishing third in both the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. After a disappointing 13^th behind IEAH’s Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby, Mott switched the colt to turf, where he finished fourth in the Colonial Turf Cup and an unlucky second, beaten a nose, in the Virginia Derby, both races at Colonial Downs.

Back on dirt in the Travers at Saratoga, Court Vision was never a factor when sixth behind WinStar’s Colonel John, then ended his six-race losing streak with a victory in the Jamaica Handicap on turf at Aqueduct (the first time Dominquez rode him).

Muny set the pace from the outside post position in the Hollywood Derby, going a half mile in :49.41, six furlongs in 1:13.40, and a mile in 1:37.56. Cowboy Cal overtook the frontrunner in midstretch, but didn’t have enough to withstand the fast-finishing Court Vision, who caught him in the final strides. Midships closed well to get third. Based on Court Vision’s position at the one-mile call on the Equibase chart, he flew home his final quarter-mile in about 22 3/5 seconds.

Bred in Kentucky by the W.S. Farish and Kilroy Thoroughbred Partnership, Court Vision was produced from the Storm Bird mare Weekend Storm, a half sister to leading sire A.P. Indy. 

Video of the Hollywood Derby.

Earlier in the Hollywood Park Turf Festival program, favored Cocoa Beach rallied  in the stretch to catch the front-running second-betting choice Precious Kitten and win the Matriach by three-quarters of a length. Juddmonte Farms’ Visit was third.

Cocoa Beach, second to Zenyatta in her last start, the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic, was trying the grass for the first time since her maiden victory in Chile in January 2007. She was purchased by Godolphin last year and sent to Dubai, where she won two of four starts and was third in the UAE Derby. The 4-year-old daughter of Doneraile Court won her first two American starts, including the Grade 1 Beldame at Belmont Park, before running second in the Breeders’ Cup on the synthetic Pro-Ride track. She is trained by Saeed bin Suroor. Cocoa Beach covered the mile on firm turf in 1:35.49.

Matriarch chart.

Video of the Matriarch.

Video of the Hollywood Turf Festival graded races.

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By Ray Paulick

Bob Evans, president and chief executive officer of Churchill Downs Inc., said during a Friday morning press conference at the company’s flagship track in Louisville, Ky., that the CDI board of directors discussed the possibility of reducing the field size of the Kentucky Derby during a regularly scheduled meeting in New Orleans last week.

The Derby’s maximum field size of 20 is under scrutiny in the wake of the death of the filly Eight Belles in last year’s Derby, even though her fatal injuries occurred after the finish and apparently were unrelated to the number of runners or trouble she may have encountered in the race. The Derby traditionally has the largest field of any race in the United States. No Derby starter has fallen during the running of the race since 1970, when Holy Land clipped heels and fell going into the far turn.

By contrast, Breeders’ Cup fields are limited to 14 starters.

Maximum field size of 14 horses and the prohibition of fillies running against males were considerations in an original discussion document circulated by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association to industry leaders who formed what ultimately came to be known as the NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance.

Field size or sex limitations were not part of the final recommendations of the NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance Pledge, which can be viewed by clicking here.

Evans said CDI has devoted a great deal of time and resources to examine a wide range of safety issues since the death of Eight Belles and has adopted all of the safety recommendations made by committees formed earlier this year by the Jockey Club and Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association.

The CDI board discussed the reduction of the field size, Evans said, though he gave no indication whether a change will be made. “For now, it’s the way it’s always been,” he said. Nominations to the Triple Crown races, including the Derby, state that the size of the Derby can be “up to 20 horses.”

A reduction in field size might not be greeted favorably by horse owners and trainers who throughout the winter and spring closely follow whether their 3-year-olds are in the leading 20 contenders, based on money earned in graded or group stakes races. Churchill recently announced a marketing agreement with Kempton racecourse in England that will guarantee one spot in the Derby field to the winner of the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes, a 1 1/8-mile race on Polytrack, on March 18.

Handle on the Derby would also decline in the event of a reduction in the field size. Evans said Churchill has researched Derby handle in relationship to field size but would not say how much handle might fall. A reduction from 20 to 14 starters would also cost Churchill Downs $300,000 in lost entry and starting fees ($25,000 to enter and $25,000 to start).

Evans discussed the Derby field size and other safety measures following a media briefing announcing that Oaks and Derby ticket prices, with a few exceptions, would be frozen in 2009. “Our slowing economy is having a pronounced effect, and many of our customers have been affected in various ways as well,” Evans said. “Although the Kentucky Derby occupies an elite spot in the world of sports and tickets are typically in high demand, we want to keep our price points at the same level to help our customers in this challenging economic climate.” Click here to read more about the ticket price freeze.

The only exceptions will be scheduled price increases in the 30-year personal seat license program, which are coming off a three-year price freeze; some luxury suites and Marquee Village accommodations; and reserved seats in the infield.

Churchill Downs is also offering the opportunity for on-track customers to buy Derby reserved seats in a sweepstakes running each day from tomorrow (Saturday, Nov. 22) through Nov. 29. Individuals whose names are drawn will be eligible to buy two Derby tickets ranging in price from $88 to $207. (Derby tickets range in price from $88 for infield reserved seats to $693 on millionaire’s row.) One thousand of the tracks 55,000 seats are being offered in the sweepstakes. For more details, click here.

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By Ray Paulick

To hear Carl Pascarella tell it, you’d think corporate marketers would have lined up from Louisville, Ky., all the way to New York’s Madison Avenue to bid on the Triple Crown sponsorship that Visa USA dropped in 1995 after a 10-year run. The relationship between the Triple Crown and Visa ended the same year Pascarella retired as the credit card giant’s chief executive officer.

Pascarella, speaking at a Tuesday afternoon session on Marketing & the Customer Experience at the 32^nd Asian Racing Conference in Tokyo, used the familiar introduction from ABC’s “Wide World of Sports” to describe sponsorship of American racing’s highest-profile series, which begins with the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, continues two weeks later in the Preakness, and concludes three weeks after that with the Belmont Stakes.

First, there is the “thrill of victory,” Pascarella said. “From a sponsor’s standpoint, nothing gives you more of a thrill than the Kentucky Derby winner driving down the Preakness stretch with a three- or four-length lead and knowing, as a sponsor, that you’ve got legs, with another three or four weeks to promote in and outside the world of sports. It was something we could use from April on through to June.”

On the other hand, he said, there is “the agony of defeat. In six of eight years we had horses that won the first two legs and didn’t win the Belmont.” That defeat eliminated the possibility of further promotions congratulating the winner of the Visa Triple Crown Challenge and the accompanying $5-million bonus, as well as any additional races the winner might compete in, including the Travers Stakes or Breeders’ Cup.

The Triple Crown was one of several world-class sponsorships for Visa in the sports and entertainment world. “Each one of them,” Pascarella said, “had a common focus on a couple of very important things: understanding who their fan and audience was; and secondly, they understood how to drive value to that fan base. They had an unwavering commitment to both things. At Visa, we looked more to sports as being the pinnacle of entertainment for fans, or our customers. No other form of entertainment brings the same kind of excitement or elation as sports does.

“The sports that are best for our sponsorship,” Pascarella continued, “put the fan in the center of the activity. They create deeper relationships because it’s a fan-centric approach. They give the fan a way to get into the event itself.”
 
Pascarella recalled how much value he was able to give to Visa’s best customers — bankers and merchants — who would come to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby. “We’d bring them on a backside tour of Churchill Downs on the day before the Derby,” he said. “They’d see the horses who would be racing in the Derby the next day, meet trainers like Bobby Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas, and these people felt like they were part of it all. We were giving them something special because of a sponsorship that was invaluable. That’s what we were paying for, that extra feeling that allowed our customers to get inside the sport.

“We’re not looking at fan numbers, we are looking at fans who are engaged, fans who will be engaged with us and our products and services,” Pascarella said. “We look at selecting and evaluating sponsorships based on being able to drive consumer behavior. How have we lifted the brand, how have we changed behavior, how have we made the consumer closer to us as a result of the association? The more we win, the more we put into a sponsorship. But it’s not just about the money. It’s about the relationships you can build with your sponsor and what you can give your sponsor in return. You need mutually beneficial objectives.”

Interestingly, while Visa dropped its sponsorship of the Triple Crown, it entered into a five-year agreement with Churchill Downs to sponsor the Kentucky Derby. No company has stepped forward to sponsor the Triple Crown since Visa’s exit from the series. One reason may have been a decision by the New York Racing Association to end its association with NBC Sports, and put the Belmont on ABC/ESPN. Another may have been fragmentation within the three tracks that comprise Triple Crown Productions and a power struggle over how sponsorship revenues were divided. Currently, of course, they have nothing to divide from a Triple Crown title sponsor.

 Pascarella, now an executive adviser to TPG Capital, also cautioned racing associations that the current economic climate will cause nearly every major corporation to reevaluate its advertising, marketing and sponsorship budgets. “Every economist projects a very deep and long recession,” he said. “That means your sponsors are going to be under a great deal of pressure. You need to reach out to them, even though your revenues also are going to be under pressure. If you reach out to them, and say, ‘How do we work together to get through this?’ that will go a long way.”

BRANDING GURU DAVID AAKER , professor emeritus of marketing strategy at the Haas School of Business at the University of California-Berkeley, talked about how racing can build its brand.

At a time when brand trustworthiness and quality perceptions of most brands are down significantly in the minds of the public, Aaker said there are opportunities to improve branding through increased energy. He cited the Nintendo video game brand as one recent phenomenon in the branding world. Five years ago, Aker said, Nintendo ranked 165^th among brand names in Japan, moved up to 65^th three y ears ago, fifth two years ago, and now ranks as the country’s leading brand, thanks to the energy created by the Nintendo Wii platform and games.

He cited five other very diverse brands that have energized themselves in recent years: 1) the Memphis Redbirds minor league baseball team; 2) the Indianapolis Motor Speedway; 3) PGA Tour golf; 4) Harley Davidson; and 5) Avon cosmetics.

All of those brands used one of two methods: energizing the business itself, or finding something with energy that is interesting and involving and attach it to the brand. “Both options are really powerful,” Aaker said.

The Memphis Redbirds, Indianapolis Speedway and Harley Davidson energized their brand by engaging their customers in multiple activities that built on the customer experience. The PGA Tour and Avon tied themselves to something with energy. The PGA Tour used Tiger Woods to its best advantage, and Avon linked its products to a breast cancer crusade and created the Avon Walk for Breast Cancer, with millions of people engaged each year. Similarly, Aaker said, Lowe’s home improvement stores attach their brand to Habitat for Humanity. In the case of Avon, he said, “Breast cancer is so important an issue and involving to the target audience that it provides Avon a way to get energy that it could never do through their products and services.”

Aaker said companies seeking to strengthen their brand should “find role models, companies in related or unrelated industries…someone who’s done it well with a brand people are talking about. What can you learn from them?”

In addition, he said, self-reflection is necessary. “What about the customer experience is boring or unpleasant? How can you mitigate that? What can be added to en rich and improve the customer experience.”

To find what he calls “branded energizers” like Avon’s breast cancer campaign, Aaker said companies should examine “what existing program has energy that fits your brand and can be connected to your brand…programs that aren’t part of the experience people are currently buying? What new program with energy can be developed that fits the brand and can be connected to the brand?”

“You have one of the most exciting events in sports and entertainment,” Aaker said. “But you need to ask yourself, ‘How can I add energy to my brand?’”

TELEVISION ADVERTISEMENTS PROMOTING RACING around the world were shown to the group and  audience members were asked to vote on their favorites. The ads were divided into five categories: Celebrating the Horse; Sex and Glamour; The Punt; A Good Laugh; and The Buzz.Most provocative were ads from Australia promoting sex and glamour. Other countries featured included France, Turkey, Japan, Hong Kong, Germany, Ireland and the United States (two ads from Santa Anita were featured). Details tomorrow on the winning ad.

By Ray Paulick

I knew I wasn’t in Kentucky anymore when I went out for an early morning walk and came across a group of about 20 people standing at a nearby intersection. It was only a two-lane road, and there wasn’t a car in sight in any direction, yet everyone stood patiently for what seemed an eternity, waiting for the crosswalk light to change from red to green.

I resisted the temptation that any American who’s ever jaywalked across a city street surely would have had.

When the light changed, everyone broke into a brisk walk, as if, all of a sudden, they were in a hurry. It is one of the strange idiosyncrasies of the people of Japan, this nation of talking elevators, American fast-food, on-time trains and silly television commercials. Its natives honor Japanese laws, yet many of them complain privately about the nature of their traditions.

I’ve come to Tokyo ostensibly to cover the 32^nd Asian Racing Conference, which began on Sunday with a trip to the Tokyo Race Course and runs through Thursday. (The time frame of some of my reports may seem a bit odd since I’ll be writing in the past tense about days that haven’t yet arrived in most of the U.S., since Tokyo is plus 14 hours from Eastern Standard Time.)

In truth, however, I’ve decided to cash in some frequent flier miles and come to Japan to meet and hear from officials representing racing countries that have faced challenges, worked cooperatively and developed strategies they hope will succeed and help them grow and prosper.  I’ve come for a shot of optimism after nearly drowning in the sea of pessimism that saturates American racing these days, where the efforts seem to focus on stopping the bleeding and the only strategy relies on subsidies from other forms of gambling. Most American tracks have given up on the idea that they can be competitive anymore.

One example: In Hong Kong, where the stock market has fallen by nearly 50% in the current financial crisis, betting is off by about 6%. But the Hong Kong Jockey Club, instead of wringing their hands over the dreadful economy, has developed a new program to give bettors a 10% rebate on individual losing bets that exceed a certain amount.

Another story: When on-track business peaked at Japan Racing Association tracks in the mid 1990s, the JRA looked at its aging flagship track, Tokyo Race Course, and rebuilt the main grandstand, giving it a much more inviting design, one that in some ways resembles the Forum Shops of Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. When they began losing fans, their strategy was fixed on giving on-track customers a better experience.

There are more than 600 delegates here from at least 30 countries. The Asian Racing Federation, which presents the conference, consists of racing nations from Asia, Australia/New Zealand, Africa and the Persian Gulf. These countries represent 36% of the world’s prize money, 32% of the international foal crops and 47% of global wagering on pari-mutuel racing. Europeans and Americans are welcome to attend the conference, though only a handful of them do. Only five Americans are scheduled to be here, two of whom are journalists.

Among those I ran into at the track was Michael Dickinson and his partner, Joan Wakefield, who  are here as exhibitors for Tapeta Footings, the synthetic surface developed by Dickinson that has been used so successfully at, among other places, Golden Gate Fields, Presque Isle Downs and the Fair Hill Training Center in the U.S., and as a training track in Dubai. Dickinson, of course, is hoping to find new clients among the Asian Racing Federation’s membership.

It was the couple’s first visit to Japan, and as someone who’s been to Tokyo a number of times for the Japan Cup and other major races, I gave them a walking tour of the massive, yet elegant new building. They were amazed at the cleanliness and bright, friendly design, the variety of comfort levels, and the size and length of the nine-story main structure, which is nearly a quarter-mile long.

In the bowels of the grandstand, there is a maze of tunnels for horses to use as they leave the paddock, go onto one of the three tracks, or return to the stable area. We took one tunnel up to the winner’s circle, where Dickinson gazed wistfully out onto the main turf course and dirt track, desperately wanting to walk the courses to get a feel for them. The former trainer is a man long obsessed with the conditions and safety of racing surfaces, and his new calling as a proponent of synthetic tracks comes to him naturally.

“Do you think it would be okay for me to walk out there, after all the races have run, just to see what the dirt and grass tracks are like?” Dickinson asked. And he wasn’t kidding.

I’ll try to find out tomorrow whether the man known as the “mad genius” found his way out there to sample the footing of the Tokyo turf and dirt. I’ll be reporting from inside the meeting and presentation rooms of the conference, and working the unofficial meetings and break rooms for the latest news and gossip throughout the racing world.

I’ve come here in search of some optimism for our sport, to learn more about how other countries have achieved their success. I’ll be disappointed if I return home empty handed.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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In the nine hours of Breeders’ Cup telecasts last Friday and Saturday, the strangest segment by far came during a brief interview between comedic sportscaster Kenny Mayne and Michael Iavarone, president of the IEAH stable that owns a majority of Big Brown, when Iavarone said he and members of his family had been the subject of a death threat more than four months earlier on the morning of the Belmont Stakes.

Mayne opened the interview by saying Iavarone showed a lot of emotion after jockey Kent Desormeaux pulled Big Brown out of the race at the top of the stretch when the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner was hopelessly beaten.

Iavarone picked it up from there.

“The morning of the (June 7) Belmont Stakes, I had been woken up around 10 a.m.,” he told Mayne. "There was a knock on my door and there were several New York City Police Department detectives. They asked me to come outside because they didn’t want to talk to me in front of my family. They told me there had been a serious death threat lodged against me, basically from Tallahassee, Florida, from an extremist saying that if anything should happen to Big Brown in the race, myself and my family were not safe. Basically I was followed by eight to nine New York detectives all day, everywhere I went. Obviously after the horse was pulled up the rest is obvious.”

Mayne said ESPN/ABC learned of Iavarone’s story the day before the live interview aired and suggested that Iavarone’s emotional reaction to Big Brown’s defeat was “painted by that threat, not what the shortfall was of not winning the Triple Crown.”

“My immediate reaction was split in half,” Iavarone told Mayne. “Obviously there was concern for the horse and concern for my family. I was headed in both directions and both of them were catastrophic at the time. The first thing I did was grab my daughters and make sure we were out of the way and safe and tears were falling. It was just a terrible day for us.”

With 24 hours lead time before the interview, Mayne said ESPN/ABC “tried to contact the detective you said investigated the case and were unable to reach him.” He then asked Iavarone, “Did they ever follow up with you and say the case was closed? Do you feel comfortable now?”

“Obviously the horse is sound and is retired so I would not believe they would have any reason to harm myself or my family,” Iavarone said. “They have not told me the case is closed.”

The strange timing of Iavarone’s revelations notwithstanding, there are some details about his story that just don’t add up. I was seated directly behind Iavarone in the box section of Belmont during the running of the Belmont Stakes, and saw just one person who was clearly serving in a security capacity – a burly African-American man wearing a dark suit, an open collared white shirt and a “Big Brown” button on his lapel. It appears to be the same individual who has traveled with Iavarone to other races, including last weekend’s Breeders’ Cup.

Immediately after the race, while Big Brown was being unsaddled, I stood directly below the IEAH box and took a series of photographs of a shocked Iavarone, who was surrounded by his family members and fellow IEAH executive Richard Schiavo. There appeared to be no additional security around Iavarone and his family, only the same bodyguard described above. Certainly, I didn’t see “eight or nine New York detectives” in the immediate area.

I’m not accusing Iavarone of making up a story about a death threat. There were a series of incidents and revelations that made Iavarone something of a lightning rod with individuals within and outside of the racing community, some of which inflamed animal rights activities. There was the revelation that Big Brown raced legally on anabolic steroids when he won the Derby, the disclosure that Iavarone had lied about his past life as a “high profile banker on Wall Street,” the fact he had been fined and suspended by the National Association of Security Dealers, and the determination to run Big Brown in the Belmont despite suffering a quarter crack and missing training before the race.

Attempts by the Paulick Report to contact New York Racing Association officials to determine their knowledge of the alleged death threat and increased New York Police Department security detail were not successful.

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By Ray Paulick

There are many ways to look at this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships from a business and sporting standpoint, and not all examinations are going to lead to the same destination.

The most important question is whether or not the 2008 Breeders’ Cup was a success or failure. Was the decision to hold the Cup at a racetrack with a synthetic surface a wise move? Has the expansion of the world championships from eight races in one day to 14 races in two days helped or diluted the event?

How is success or failure of the Breeders’ Cup measured? Is it attendance, pari-mutuel handle, revenue, TV ratings, racing results, international participation?

It’s difficult to measure some of these factors because the circumstances of the Breeders’ Cup have changed so much between 2008 and previous years, rendering it an apples to oranges comparison. Making those comparisons even more challenging are the current economic conditions that have hit all levels of society this year, from Wall Street bankers to blue-collar workers. Virtually every industry is feeling a severe impact.

Putting that aside, last year’s Breeders’ Cup at Monmouth Park was the first time the event was stretched over two days, and handle totaled just over $147 million ($31.5 on the Friday program and $115.7 on Saturday) despite poor weather and messy track conditions (a near monsoon came through New Jersey during Friday’s program and the track was very sloppy on Saturday). This year’s two-day handle increased by only 5.5%, to $155.5 million  ($47.9 million on Friday, $107.6 million on Saturday), despite perfect weather and the addition of three new Breeders’ Cup races. Comparisons are for the whole cards, including non-Breeders’ Cup races run at Monmouth Park last year and Santa Anita this year.

Steve Crist’s weekend blog at DRF.com (Friday, Saturday), which detailed the race-by-race betting figures for the last three years of the Breeders’ Cup, shows that handle dropped sharply on the races moved from the Saturday card in 2007 to Friday (Filly & Mare Turf, Juvenile Fillies, Ladies’ Classic) this year. That makes perfect sense, since there were fewer people betting Friday’s program this year than there were betting Saturday’s program last year. But there were five Breeders’ Cup races on Friday this year, when the all of the filly and mare races were packaged as "Filly Friday" or "Ladies Day," compared with three in 2007, leading to the increase in Friday-to-Friday comparisons.

Handle dropped virtually across the board on Saturday’s races this year, with the day’s total handle declining by 7%, from $115.7 million in 2007 to $107.6 million in 2008. It was the lowest handle on a Saturday Breeders’ Cup since 1999, when $100.3 million was bet on the races from Gulfstream Park.

Santa Anita’s on-track handle of $11.8 million was down almost 10% from the $12.7 million wagered on-track at Monmouth Park in 2007 and a steep decline of 33% from the 2006 Saturday Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs, when $18.3 million was bet on-track during the one-day event.

Saturday’s on-track business was the lowest for a Breeders’ Cup since 1997, when $11.2 million was wagered at Hollywood Park. The last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita, in 2003, one-day on-track handle totaled $16.3 million. This year’s two-day on-track handle was $18.7 million.

The economic climate has not been good for racing in 2008. Most major race meetings have experienced double-digit declines in business. For the Breeders’ Cup to increase handle from 2007 is an accomplishment, though not a major one when considering both the additional races and superior weather conditions.

It is difficult to say there has not been a dilution of the event based on the early evidence. Do the positive benefits outweigh any negatives? I think it’s too early to tell.

Attendance was up this year from 2007, but that should have been a no-brainer following the poor weather at Monmouth Park. Breeders’ Cup officials got greedy with ticket prices and, to their credit, have admitted as much. The increase in prices was outrageous, especially for the Friday program, and it is hoped they will be scaled back considerably next year.

TV ratings have not yet been reported, but it’s hard to imagine they will be up from 2007.

The racing was spectacular on both days – and safe. More than a few people commented at the conclusion of the Breeders’ Cup that no one died or suffered any serious injuries, a sad commentary on the bumpy road the sport has been traveling in recent years. The Pro-Ride synthetic track was fast and safe, though it appeared to compromise some horses who had only raced on conventional dirt tracks and help those horses with synthetic track or turf experience. 

Synthetic surfaces have increased the difficulty of handicapping, and running the traditional Breeders’ Cup dirt races on the Pro-Ride track may have led some big players to downsize their bets. The Classic, according to Crist’s figures, handled $24.3 million in bets this year, down from $30.1 million at Monmouth Park last year and $37.7 million at Churchill Downs in 2006.

The dominance of European horses was widely embraced by Breeders’ Cup officials, including president Greg Avioli, who sees international participation as the last, best hope for further growth in pari-mutuel handle. The success of Raven’s Pass and four other European-based winners on Saturday’s program will ensure enthusiastic participation from European horsemen when the races return to Santa Anita in 2009, but there is no guarantee that’s going to mean greater interest among horseplayers outside of North America. There is a conceivable backlash among American breeders who provide the financial foundation of the Breeders’ Cup program through foal and stallion nominations. Some of them view this as an American event, and they would be happier if the considerable purse money stayed in this country. On the other hand, those breeders who want to reach an international audience with their sale yearlings may cheer the success of European-based runners.

The Breeders’ Cup will conduct a post-mortem on the event to determine what worked and what didn’t.  Many have said the Oak Tree Racing Association and Santa Anita did a terrific job from a logistical standpoint, and there may not be a more telegenic racing facility in America in late October than the "Great Race Place." There were many people critical of the decision to hold the event at Santa Anita in consecutive years, but those critics surely are fewer in number following this year’s Breeders’ Cup

Provided that no major changes are made in the format, holding the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita next year will be more of an apples to apples comparison, allowing Cup officials to assess whether or not the expansion from one day to two was a sound decision.

By Ray Paulick

Cash in a couple of T-bills and get ready to make some serious, if not totally sound, investments on this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships. You’re sure to at least have some fun, which is more than you’ve had watching the Dow Jones Industrial Average the last several weeks.

The Breeders’ Cup betting menu has my head spinning with win, place and show wagers, exactas, trifectas, superfectas (at a dime a pop!), daily doubles, picks threes, pick fours, pick sixes, and even a couple of super high fives. If math isn’t your strong suit, Breeders’ Cup officials have even put together a special wagering calculator to see how much some of those bets will cost. They’re even offering free past performances, courtesy of Equibase. All account wagering companies will be taking bets or you can go to your local simulcast outlet. If you’re a novice, read some of these helpful handicapping hints.

For those interested in other people’s opinions, I’ve handicapped Friday’s races below (check back on Friday to get the Paulick Report lowdown on Saturday’s nine Breeders’ Cup races). I cut my teeth handicapping on the West Coast for eight years with Daily Racing Form in the 1980s, and have covered 22 of the 24 Breeders’ Cups . But it’s not widely known that I began my career in the business as an underaged jockey riding competitively on the Northern Illinois bush-corral circuit!

I’ve used all of my pari-mutuel winnings over the years for a vacation home in the Grand Caymans … which is still in the planning stages!

But seriously, for this year’s Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, keep an eye on how the Europeans handle the synthetic Pro-Ride surface in the early races, and be quick to adjust your early handicapping strategy if the surface is showing any biases related to front-running or closing speed. Extreme outside post positions for the mile and 1 1/16 races on both tracks are a major hindrance, and inside posts for the main track sprints are usually a disadvantage. Post position at 1 1/8 or 1 ¼ miles on the main track shouldn’t be a factor.

California-based horses will have a built-in advantage, not so much because of the track but because of the climate. Many horses coming in from colder regions have a hard time adapting.

Remember … bet early and often! I’m pretty sure I’ve got five straight winners here … but, please, tell me where I’m wrong!

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT
Can a $10,000 claimer win a $1-million Breeders’ Cup race? I think so.  Dearest Trickski was a sharp claim when Cody Autrey took him for $10,000 at Lone Star Park 18 months ago but an even better one for John Sadler, when he claimed her from Autrey for $32,000 just over a year ago at Del Mar. Since then, she’s won seven of eight starts, including three graded stakes, and is sharp as a tack for the West Coast’s hottest conditioner. Sadler withstood a steroids storm this past summer at Del Mar and has kept on winning. I like the fact she’s drawn well out from the rail and is a fat 15-1 on the morning line. With Indyanne out of the race, there’s less early speed to contend with, and word is that Will Phipps has been working on getting Dream Rush to rate. Indian Blessing will be the heavy favorite. Interesting how her Beyer Speed Figures in Daily Racing Form’s past performances are much better in New York than anywhere else and far superior to those for Dearest Trickski. I like another locally based longshot, Magnificience, to be a late threat, along with Intangaroo, who has been one of the best stories of 2008 because of trainer Gary Sherlock’s comeback from a near-fatal health condition.

Selections: 1- Dearest Trickski 2-Indian Blessing 3-Magnificience 4-Intangaroo

 

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
It’s a bit surprising there aren’t more Europeans in this field, and the ones that there are here don’t look that strong. In fact, the Juvenile Fillies Turf may be the most puzzling of the 14 Breeders’ Cup races. Keep in mind that the outside post positions are very tough going a mile on the Santa Anita turf, and I think that’s going to hurt the two best Euros, Beyond Our Reach and Heart Shaped. Shug McGaughey has one of the best Breeders’ Cup records among trainers, and that leads me to Consequence, who comes off a decent fourth on yielding turf at Belmont Park a few weeks ago in the Miss Grillo, one of the few graded races in this division. That was her first try at a distance and she should be much sharper this time around. I like her local bullet workout at Santa Anita. Laragh could team up with Stardom Bound in the Juvenile Fillies to make this a memorable day for the Gainesway team that stands first-crop sire Tapit, an also-ran to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby but running circles around him so far in the stallion biz. Laragh won a laugher at Keeneland, but Santa Anita is a different kind of turf course (less sandy), so I don’t put much stock into how easily she won. Jim Cassidy is as sharp as they come when it comes to finding horses in Europe, and April Pride could be one of those good finds. She has a lot of racing experience, has solid if not spectacular form, and breaks from the rail – a good post at this distance. Heart Shaped was very unlucky to draw the far outside.

Selections: 1- Consequence 2-Laragh 3-April Pride 4-Heart Shaped

JUVENILE FILLIES
Historically, the Juvenile Fillies has been one of the chalkier races, with 14 of the previous 24 winners going off the betting favorite. I’m convinced Stardom Bound is the best we’ve seen in the 2-year-old filly division, and she’s in good hands with Chris Paasch and Mike Smith. This could be one heckuva day for Mikey (and for the aforementioned Tapit, sire of Stardom Bound). Stardom Bound has a very strong kick, and unless she gets caught up in traffic problems (or the track has a bias favoring front-runners) she should run down the speed. Don’t make the mistake of overlooking D. Wayne Lukas in the exotics. He trains the quick Smarty Jones filly Be Smart, and while Lukas doesn’t have the numbers he used to have, the all-time leading Breeders’ Cup conditioner can still get it done when he’s got a good horse. She has the kind of speed that could tow-rope the field, especially if Palacio de Amor doesn’t get a quick jump out of the gate. Doremifasollatido got the absolute worst of the post position draw and will have to try to save some ground going into the first turn to have any chance. Pursuit of Glory romped on Polytrack in Ireland in her second start, though hasn’t raced beyond six furlongs yet for Coolmore connections

Selections: 1- Stardom Bound 2-Be Smart 3-Doremifasollatido 4-Pursuit of Glory

FILLY & MARE TURF
Halfway to Heaven looks to have the perfect running style for this year’s edition of the Filly & Mare Turf: enough speed to either take the early lead or sit just off the pace and pounce when called upon by Johnny Murtagh. This looks like a deep field with the likes of course specialist Wait a While and ultra-consistent Mauralakana, but my suspicion is that the Europeans are superior to the home team. My biggest concern with Halfway to Heaven is if she might be “over the top” with six starts this year and a race in early October. I’m throwing another 3-year-old filly, Visit, into the mix for my exotic bets. She’s never gone this far, but a mile and quarter on the Santa Anita turf isn’t nearly as demanding as it is in Europe, and I always respect horses trained by Michael Stoute (racing’s Fred Flintstone lookalike). Can Folk Opera complete a European sweep in the trifecta? That’s where my money will be.

Selections: 1- Halfway to Heaven 2-Visit 3-Folk Opera 4-Wait a While

LADIES’ CLASSIC
The plan is to be so far ahead of the game by the time the Ladies’ Classic field enters the starting gate (around 6:15 p.m. Eastern), we are tempted to sit this one out and enjoy the sheer perfection of Zenyatta. But since we plan to be playing with other people’s money, let’s take a shot that the heaviest favorite on the day can be beaten. If there is an upset, I think it will be the only 3-year-old in the field, Music Note, who hasn’t stepped out of her division yet in stakes competition (though she beat a field of older mares in an allowance race in May). Her Gazelle win was nothing more than a public workout, and she’ll have to step up a bit from there to beat Zenyatta. If she can get an early jump on the favorite at the top of the stretch, she might be able to get the job done. Ginger Punch is tough as nails, but she couldn’t hold off Cocoa Beach in the slop last time out in the Beldame. I think she reverses the decision at Santa Anita but will have to settle for a minor award in defense of her title.

Selections 1-Music Note 2- Zenyatta 3-Ginger Punch 4-Cocoa Beach

Good luck and safe racing to all!

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