Archive for the ‘Breeding’ Category

GUEST COMMENTARY: MAY FOALS THE SECRET TO DERBY TRAIL?

Wednesday, May 13th, 2009

I’ve always been surprised at the habits of many buyers at yearling sales…they sometimes remind me of lemmings marching to the sea, making decisions without logic or rationality. I once asked a leading buyer why he often spent so much money on yearlings by unproven first-year sires, a practice that is common enough to inflate the yearling average for those new sires. His response was simple: “They haven’t failed yet.”

That philosophy makes no sense to me, for it would seem far more pragmatic to look for undervalued proven stallions than to roll the dice on a group of newcomers whose chance of succeeding are somewhere between 5-10%.

Another unexplainable practice of yearling buyers is their disdain of foals born in the month of May. On average, it would make sense that May foals would be smaller than their January-April counterparts, so perhaps buyers at summer or fall yearling sales are simply unable to project how that smaller horse might look as a 2- or 3-year-old.

Some years ago, statistics accompanying an article I wrote for Bloodhorse’s MarketWatch newsletter, showed that May foals were only marginally behind earlier season foals in performance standards (stakes wins, money won), but their average yearling prices were much, much lower. Where I come from, that makes May foals a bargain.

Rob Whiteley, who operates the successful Liberation Farm breeding operation, came to the same conclusion in an article he wrote this week for the Thoroughbred Daily News. From the winning Kentucky Derby exacta of May foals Mine That Bird and Pioneerof the Nile to a review of May foals that have won Breeders’ Cup races, Whiteley makes a compelling argument that buyers should pay far more attention to May foals than they traditionally have. We’d like to thank Sue Finley of TDN for granting reprint rights of Whiteley’s article. – Ray Paulick

By Rob Whiteley
As a populist horseman, it makes me smile when a relatively obscure horse comes out of the hinterlands and beats up on a bunch of fashionably bred horses who are sired by generally over-priced, over-hyped, and over-bred stallions. And it turns my smile into a broad grin to observe that Mine That Bird is a mid-May foal.

To be fair, the valiant runner-up, Pioneerof the Nile, is regally bred and fully deserving of his cost of production. His bloodlines and hefty stud fee came through in a brave display of talent and determination, and those who played him unsuccessfully in the exotics only have themselves to blame for not taking home a big piece of the track. Like the item we look past in the front of the refrigerator, it was right there to see. Pioneerof the Nile is also a May foal, and if you had played a May foal exacta, you would have received $2,074.80 for a $2 exacta box.

(Ed. Note: A $2 exacta box with all of the May foals in the Derby would’ve cost $40. Atomic Rain (Smart Strike), Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor) and third-place finisher Musket Man (Yonaguska) are all May foals as well. A $1 triple box on the quintet would’ve set you back just $60, and returned $20,750.30)

In light of the continuous racing success achieved by May foals year after year, I am at a loss to rationally understand how that success fails to translate into the sales scene where May foals, as a group, bring approximately 35 percent less than their counterparts. For some in-grained reason, rooted in hearsay and perpetuated by the typical word of mouth momentum that spreads other horse industry falsehoods and myths, May foals get a bad rap at the sales, and are often discounted accordingly in the ring. This is such nonsense. The stigma on May foals that floats around on the winds of ignorance has no basis in fact.

It can even be persuasively argued that May foals actually have a slight advantage over other foals, as May foals are born according to a horse’s innate and natural spring-time predispositions, and with the most favorable environmental conditions.

Savvy buyers who keep up with the details of racing know that May foals, as a group, race as successfully as foals born in other months, and better than foals born in January. And the sharpest horsemen and pinhookers know that a few days or even weeks generally make little difference in a horse’s early development.

The most important factors in a horse’s ability to perform early involve genetically based precocity, balance, athleticism, and mental maturity, not date of birth. Each horse has its own genetically wound clock, and horses have wide-ranging differences in the rate that they develop, no matter which month they might be born in. Like foals born in January or February or any month, some May foals may be forward enough to zip along at two-year-old sales, while others may not be mature enough to race effectively until the middle of their three-year-old years, or later. Horses, like humans and other mammals, follow their own genetic blueprint.

When it is their time to perform, however, May foals truly hold their own, even as two-year-olds.

Except for the month of January, the fewest number of foals are born in May, yet they account for 10 percent of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile colt and filly champions. Furthermore, as May foals mature, their success rate in certain top level venues can be jaw-dropping. May foals have won a stunning 50 percent of the last 10 Breeders’ Cup Distaffs (including, Azeri, Round Pond, Spain, and Escena). And May foals have won over 25 percent of all Breeders’ Cup Mile races.

Despite the impressive frequency with which May foals find the winner’s circle in big races, however, a May foal may not win the Preakness this year. Instead, a magnificent January foal named Rachel Alexandra may be brilliant enough to outrun the boys, no matter when they were born (if she can adjust to a new groom, a new trainer, and new routines). But the Belmont, please take note, is entirely a different matter because of the extraordinary potency of the May foal factor.

The May foal factor is the strongest available predictor of Belmont success–far stronger than the most sophisticated figs or Beyer numbers–because May foals, incredibly, have won nearly 40 percent of the last 15 runnings of the Belmont (including, Afleet Alex, Lemon Drop Kid, Thunder Gulch, Touch Gold, Victory Gallop, and Mine That Bird’s own daddy, Birdstone). Therefore, given the historical dominance by May foals in this mile-and-a-half event, and given the Bird’s paternal family connection and the probable presence of steadfast Pioneerof the Nile, we could even be looking at the same May foal quinella we witnessed in the Derby. In any event, it is time we give May foals the respect they deserve, at the sales and on the track.

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SKY MESA RECOVERING FROM COLIC SURGERY

Monday, February 16th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
Three Chimneys stallion Sky Mesa, the leading second-crop sire of 2008, underwent colic surgery Sunday morning and is expected to miss at least a month of the breeding season that got under way this past week. The 9-year-old son of Pulpit out of the graded stakes-winning Storm Cat mare Caress, is recovering at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital near Lexington, where Dr. Scott Hopper performed the surgery.

"The surgery went really well and we expect a full recovery," said Case Clay, president of Three Chimneys. "A six-inch incision was made, there was some displacement but no re-secting was required. We expect him back at the farm Wednesday or Thursday, and on the advice of our veterinarian, Dr. (Jim) Morehead, we’re going to target mid-March for him to start covering mares." Clay said Sky Mesa covered one mare  before experiencing colic symptoms on Saturday that eventually led to Sunday’s surgery.

“Sky Mesa was showing mild to moderate signs of colic on Saturday, but they seemed to dissipate with Banamine," said Clay. "Once the Banamine wore off and we saw the symptoms returning, we made the decision to send him to Rood and Riddle.”

(Click
here to learn more about colic and colic surgery.)

Currently second on the third-crop sire list behind Harlan’s Holiday, Sky Mesa was represented on Saturday by Grade 3 winner General Quarters, who posted an upset at Tampa Bay Downs in the Sam F. Davis Stakes for 3-year-olds. General Quarters is one of eight stakes winners from the first two crops by Sky Mesa.

Sky Mesa raced for John and Debbie Oxley and was trained by John Ward. Unbeaten as a 2-year-old, Sky Mesa won the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga and the Grade 2 Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity at Saratoga, but suffered an ankle injury on the eve of the 2002 Breeders’ Cup and was scratched from the Grade 1 Juvenile. He raced three times as a 3-year-old, failing to win, but finished second in the Grade 1 Haskell and third in the Grade 2 Dwyer Stakes.

Bred by Harbor View Farm, Sky Mesa was purchased by the Oxleys for $750,000 at the 2001 Keeneland September yearling sale. He stands for $30,000, due when the foal stands and nurses.

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EQUINOMIC STIMULUS?

Monday, February 16th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
An industry that saw a $1-billion drop in wagering and a nearly $250 million decline in bloodstock sales in 2008 could use a little economic stimulus. Unfortunately, no such outside plan exists for the Thoroughbred racing and breeding industry in the United States – no federal bailout or earmarks in the massive stimulus plan just approved by Congress.

When I first moved to Kentucky in 1988, the breeding industry was in the midst of a serious economic slump, one that began in 1985 and didn’t end until 1992. The seven-year downturn was caused by a combination of overproduction (the number of North American foals born topped out at over 50,000 in the mid-1980s), overconfidence in the market, and federal tax reform that took away many of the incentives to own Thoroughbred breeding stock.

The big question at Thoroughbred auctions for several years in the late 1980s and early ‘90s was whether or not the market had hit bottom. It’s a question that really couldn’t be answered until the industry saw an uptick in business, and that didn’t happen until 1992. Then, as now, the first part of a down market was the toughest, because breeders were carrying production costs from a bull market into a sales environment that was anything but bullish.

If 2008 was a tough time for breeders, they’d better strap in for an even rougher ride in 2009. Yearlings were produced from 2007 stud fees, a breeding season that came on the heels of an all-time record year for the average price of weanlings, yearlings and 2-year-olds. In fact, the 2006 bloodstock market hit an all-time high for gross revenue, with more than $1.23 billion in North American sales.

Last year’s economic crisis didn’t really hit until September, though Wall Street had been jittery for months beforehand. Prices for 2-year-olds of 2008 were actually up slightly, and yearling average declined by just 6.9% (though median dipped more sharply, by 16.7%). The weanling and broodmare markets were hit harder, falling by 15.7% and 17.2%, respectively. Most breeders I’ve spoken with are bracing for declines in the yearling market of at least 20%, and some feel it could drop by as much as 40%.

With such dire predictions in the marketplace, it may sound foolish to suggest that 2009 could prove to be a very good year for people to breed their mares. Stud fees are down significantly, and terms for those fees have seldom been as flexible as they are today.

To quote Warren Buffett, the oracle of Omaha: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” I think it’s fair to say that many Thoroughbred breeders are fearful right now.

To that end, the best economic stimulus the breeding industry could have in 2009 is confidence among mare owners that the yearling market of 2011 will have rebounded from the anticipated slump of the upcoming year and, perhaps, 2010. The wild card, of course, is the overall state of the American economy, which even the most optimistic among us does not feel will turn around in the next 12 months.

Not breeding mares that have commercial value is not going to improve anyone’s economic standing, and will not help stimulate the industry to get out of this slump. Stallion farms have reduced fees and are working with breeders to get mares bred and stallion books filled. The breeding sheds are now open: sending your mares to be bred supports the industry in so many ways, from the vanning companies, feed companies, veterinary community, boarding farms and stallion farms, among others.

And yet despite this economic downturn, there is still much support for a good product, a conclusion we have reached due to the strong support of advertisers here at the Paulick Report. Of course, we’d like to recommend you support those stallion farms that have invested some of their advertising dollars at the Paulick Report: Airdrie Stud, Buck Pond Farm, Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms, Hopewell Farm, Spendthrift Farm, Walmac Farm and WinStar Farm. We appreciate each of those businesses, along with our other advertisers (eNicks, Fox Hill Farm, Kris S Bloodstock, Liberation Farm, M & M Thoroughbred Partners, North American Thoroughbred Trainer magazine, and Team Valor), and urge you to recognize and support them in any way possible for their part in contributing to the independent voice the Paulick Report has been bringing to the industry since June 2008.

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MYTHICAL KY SLOTS ARMADA: 15 YEARS LATER

Friday, February 13th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
It’s now been 15 years since James E. (Ted) Bassett III, then the president of Keenelend, declared before a legislative committee in Kentucky’s state capitol that the commonwealth’s signature industry, Thoroughbred racing and breeding, was “not going to cave in to the hypothetical threat of a mythical armada cruising down the Ohio from Ashland to Paducah under the disguise of a legislative act that has yet to be passed in most of our neighboring states.”

Bassett was talking about the emergence of what then were just a few floating casinos in Illinois and the possibility of additional boats in Indiana; 1994 was only the beginning of an era that has seen an unprecedented explosion in gambling in states from New Mexico to New York, from Florida to Louisiana, from Mississippi to West Virginia, and from Michigan to Pennsylvania.

So much has changed in 15 years that even Bassett’s wise, old head must be spinning. In fact, his successor at Keeneland, Nick Nicholson, is now one of the main proponents to get Kentucky’s gambling playing fields level with those of other states. The mythical armada surrounding Kentucky has grown to include a massive floating arsenal of riverboats carrying blackjack and craps tables, and hundreds of thousands of slot machines at land-based compounds.

I understand completely what Bassett was saying. He hated the thought Kentucky’s racing industry would have to cave in to the pressures created by the dominos falling around him in other states. Betting on a horse and throwing money into slot machines are two forms of gambling, to be sure, but one involves an intellectual challenge, an agriculture based business, and a beautiful sport that at times can capture the interest and imagination of an entire nation. The other is a mindless activity that is virtually guaranteed to separate the player from his money: gradually, tantalizingly, but, ultimately, relentlessly.

Sadly, I hate to admit, the former – pari-mutuel wagering on horses – must depend to some degree on the latter – Video Lottery Terminals or slot machines – to survive.

The debate has gone on long enough in Kentucky. Fifteen years! There probably isn’t a resident in Kentucky who can’t jump in his car and within two hours be feeding a slot machine in a neighboring state. Thousands of Kentuckians are doing just that, every day, and it’s costing the state hundreds of millions of dollars each year in lost revenue. Worse, it’s threatening the very future of Kentucky’s largest and most important industry: the Thoroughbred.

I wrote earlier this week that slots revenue may in the long run be fool’s gold in many states, and I stand by that statement. Any non-essential industry that relies on subsidies to exist is skating on thin ice, because those subsidies can very well be taken away with the slash of a legislator’s pen. The racing and breeding industries in most American states would have to be put into that “non-essential” category. But Kentucky is different. Take away the horse farms and the nearly 100,000 jobs they have created, and you will have a state plunged into a deep, deep economic recession. No other state is so dependent on this major agribusiness. Furthermore, Kentucky’s identity to the rest of the world is so tied to horses that it would forever be changed.

It’s therefore essential that legislators, from Ashland to Hopkinsville, from Paducah to Williamsburg, understand that the armada is no longer mythical, that the assault is ongoing, and that the battle is in serious danger of being lost.

This subject has been debated, not just in the halls of Frankfort and the breeding sheds of Central Kentucky, but on the national airwaves. On Wednesday of this week and next week, Steve Byk’s At the Races radio show on Sirius channel 126 (4-7 p.m. Eastern) is devoting the entire three hours to the issue, “Kentucky in Crisis.” Byk’s guests this week were John Sikura of Hill ‘n’ Dale farm, Kentucky state Sen. Damon Thayer, Eclipse Award-winning writer Billy Read and trainer Chuck Simon.

Click here to listen to Wednesday’s enlightening “Kentucky in Crisis” program.

I’ll be on next Wednesday’s program, following scheduled appearances by Greg Stumbo, the Kentucky House Speaker whose VLT legislation cleared a House committee yesterday, lobbyist Gene McLean and former Kentucky Gov. Brereton Jones, the owner of Airdrie Stud.

VLTs or slot machines cannot be racing’s salvation. The sport is failing, not just in Kentucky but throughout the United States, because it has failed to adequately address a number of serious challenges. The racing product needs attention, and its business model is broken both on a local and national level, and simply putting additional money into purses is not going to fix the product on its own. It will, however, give the industry an opportunity to invest in its own future, something it has not been able to do since the mythical armada transformed into a very real threat to the survival of Kentucky’s most important industry.

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SINS OF THE MOTHER …

Wednesday, February 11th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
As apologies go, New York Yankees star Alex Rodriquez could take some lessons from Carrie Brogden, who operates Machmer Hall Stud in Kentucky with her husband, Craig. The farm is also part owned but not managed by Brogden’s mother, veterinarian Sandra Willwerth, whose past indiscretions in the horse world prompted the Paulick Report to call after we read about Machmer Hall’s role in a new Thoroughbred auction agency, Select Sales. We’d like to think integrity is an important part of the Thoroughbred auction business, and after being alerted about Willwerth’s past thought it would be a good idea to ask some questions.

Willwerth’s first run-in with authorities came in 1997 when she pleaded guilty to a felony charge in Virginia’s Fauguier County for forging a public record (a certificate for an equine infectious anemia lab test for a pony she sold). Willwerth received a five-year suspended sentence and was placed on probation. Her license to practice veterinary medicine was also suspended by the Virginia Department of Health Professions.

Five years later, Willwerth was caught in another dishonest act after she registered as Pennsylvania-breds a dozen foals born in Virginia. For that, she was barred by the Jockey Club from registering any foals for two years and banned from registering future Pennsylvania-breds. Click here to read a press release about the incident from the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association.

Brogden didn’t say she or her mother were “young,” “stupid” or “naïve” as Rodriquez did in his public mea culpa for taking anabolic steroids to improve his performance and then lying about it. She said the mistakes that have tainted her mother’s name in some horse industry circles were simply “bad errors in judgment." She also hopes her reputation won’t be painted with the same brush.

Brogden had nothing to do with the forged EIA certificate in 1997. She was attending James Madison University at the time. But, having two equine veterinarians for parents and learning to ride at an early age, horses were in her blood, even when she was living in Washington, D.C., suburbs after college and the only horses she saw were in magazines. She moved to Kentucky in the winter of 2002 after a former boyfriend told her she could never love him as much as she loved horses.

When her mother got busted later that year for trying to misrepresent her Virginia foals as Pennsylvania-breds (this occurred, incidentally, before slot machines enriched Pennsylvania-bred breeders incentives), Carrie Brogden was trying to establish her own reputation at Machmer Hall in Kentucky. “I said, ‘We’ve got to be proactive and try to right this situation,’ so we went to everyone who had one of these foals and tried to clean up the mess,” Brogden told the Paulick Report. “We settled monetarily with the owners of every single foal.” Brogden also said her mother has paid the price for her errors in judgment.

Today, Machmer Hall has about 120 mares and 50 yearlings on its 360 acres. These are tough times for breeders, but Brogden and her husband are trying to make a go of it, and they have enjoyed some early success. “You only have your name once, and that name and reputation are very important,” she said. “I live my life wanting to be able to sleep every night.”

There is a Biblical expression about sons having to pay for the sins of the father. Let’s hope in the real world that daughters do not have to pay for the sins of the mother.

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AN EVENING WITH KENTUCKY FARM MANAGERS

Thursday, February 5th, 2009
By Ray Paulick I was both flattered and humbled to be asked to speak at Wednesday night’s monthly meeting of the Kentucky Thoroughbred Farm Managers’ Club and promised several people who asked that I would make a copy of the outline of my talk available on the Paulick Report web site. Click here to access the presentation.
The subject was “An Industry in Transition,” something that clearly has been true in several ways for more than a few years. The big question is where we are in that transition. My five key points were that we are 1) a cyclical industry currently in a “down” cycle, largely because of the global financial crisis but also because of self-inflicted wounds; 2)  racing must clean up its act on some issues that have been neglected and urgently need attention; 3) all wagering dollars are not created equally, and that it is extremely important that everyone understands how critical it is for horsemen to be vigilant in protecting their rights in negotiations with racetracks and account wagering companies; 4) there are some opportunities to help create a brighter future; and 5) people in the industry have a voice that can make a difference, and it’s important they use it.

Based on a few questions and comments that followed, I sensed that one of the biggest frustrations many are feeling about the industry is the lack of leadership in the form of a central or league office. Good ideas can be floated to help improve economic conditions, but the age-old question remains: Who will carry them out? I’ve been attending KTFMC meetings (on an infrequent basis) for more than 20 years, and I was impressed by both the size of the turnout (about 175 people showed up at Keeneland on a frigid night in foaling season, when many were still struggling with power outages) and the youthful enthusiasm and insights of many of those on hand. I was especially happy to see that two groups who represent a part of the industry’s future – KEMI, or the Kentucky Equine Management Internship and the Darley Flying Start students – were in attendance. Both are outstanding programs. Finally, I was pleased but not surprised to see first-hand that Gus Koch, a former Farm Manager of the Year and Life Member and former president of the KTFMC, has done more than help breed and raise good horses at Claiborne Farm (and Windfields Farm before that). He’s done just as well, if not better, developing a new generation of horsemen and leaders, including son Matthew, who is the current president of the KTFMC. Another son Charles, is a former KTFMC president; a third, Anthony, is an associate at Hallway Feeds, and a fourth, Steven, is vice president of racing at Woodbine Entertainment in Toronto, Canada. Overall, the evening with the KTFMC gives me faith that our industry’s future will be in good hands. My concern is the condition it will be in when it’s turned over to them. Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report Visit the Paulick Report for all the latest news throughout the racing world. Sign up for our Email Flashes to get the latest news, analysis and commentary.

A LIEN MARKET

Friday, January 16th, 2009
By Ray Paulick
When in-foal mares sell for less than the stud fees their breeders have invested in them, as is happening with unfortunate frequency during recent Thoroughbred auctions including the current Keeneland January Sale of Horses of All Ages, there can be trouble – trouble for the breeder who is trying to make ends meet, for the bank that may have loaned him money to buy the mare or operate his business and for the stallion farm that sold him the breeding right.

Those three interests have been butting heads increasingly as the market has weakened over the last year. Stallion farms and banks for years have put security liens on horses being sold, but now they have company from other businesses: veterinarians, boarding farms, feed companies, even tack shops. More people are fighting over fewer dollars, and some fear market conditions have not reached their low point. 

It’s impossible to say how many horses are sold with liens attached to them, either from banks or stallion farms. One auction house executive is certain it’s less than 50% of the horses that enter the ring. However, one stallion farm representative told the Paulick Report the farm has filed more liens in the past 12 months than ever before.

One of the perplexing questions about liens is, “Who gets paid first?” If a breeder owes $75,000 to a bank and $25,000 on a stud fee and only gets $20,000 when a horse sells, no one is going to get whole. How that money is divided up is the issue. Auction companies take an arm’s-length position, holding the money while telling the affected parties to negotiate a settlement and tell them who gets what.

A group of chief financial officers for Kentucky farms and many equine lenders met last year at Keeneland to discuss how to resolve credit issues when multiple liens are attached to a horse. “It’s getting very messy,” one farm representative said. “Everybody is filing liens now.”

The meeting was described as a good first step, with open dialogue and identification of the various issues. Nothing, however, was resolved.

Traditionally, banks and stallion farms have worked closely together to resolve these issues, but banks are no longer as flexible as they once were. “Historically, banks have recognized those (stud fee) liens, but the Uniform Commercial Code changed a few years ago and the basic rule in priority has to do with the first to file,” one banker said. “Lienholders like banks have filed some time ago, so it becomes problematic. It’s the bank’s money, or the bank shareholders’ money.”

Complicating the issue are new “pay from proceeds” agreements on stud fees whereby a breeder is not obligated to pay for the fee until after he sells the resulting foal, either as a weanling or yearling. More and more farms are making deals for breeders to pay stud fees from sale proceeds, even if those terms are not the farm’s advertised policy. When fees were due by Sept. 1 or Nov. 1 of year bred, or even when a foal stands and nurses, the stallion farms could withhold the stallion service certificate as its trump card if the stud fee wasn’t paid. That kept a foal from being registered with the Jockey Club or sold at auction.

Now, however, with pay from proceeds agreements, the stallion service certificate is released to the breeder so the foal can be registered and sold. By so doing, the stallion farms have lost their leverage to collect stud fees from some breeders, especially if the resulting sale is lower than the stud fee.

Those farms often have no idea whether or not other liens have been attached to a horse being sold. They can perfect a lien by filing the paperwork in the state where the horse’s primary owner resides, in part to determine if other formal liens have been filed and to determine priority. That can be difficult, too, since it isn’t always easy to identify who the majority or minority owners of a horse are.

“The horse business is tough to be a creditor in, because there is no title registry concerning who owns the horse,” one banker said. “The forensics of trying to find who owns a horse can be staggering. Pieces of them change hands all the time without any paperwork. Stallion farms allow someone to sign a contract even though that person may own no part of only a small part in a mare. The farms are conducting business without the kind of underwriting a bank would do.”

Some breeders would like to see an ownership registry, but that could stifle commerce if paperwork had to be filed with the registry every time a portion of a horse changed hands. Others have suggested the creation of a central clearinghouse for liens, so creditors have some idea whether liens have been filed against individuals, but that would have to be tied in with an ownership registry. “The Jockey Club is the natural party to do that,” one stallion farm representative said, “but they don’t want to get in the middle of this, and neither do the sale companies.”

Without any change in procedures, stallion farms are likely to be standing in line behind banks when foals produced through pay from proceeds agreements are sold.  “It will be a headache, and it’s going to be tougher if more people can’t pay all their debt,” said a banker. “We are looking at a market that is particularly weak, and you’d have to say the chances of people defaulting on loans is increasing. It will get worse."

“It would be less of a problem if you didn’t have pay out of proceeds,” he added, “but it’s a competitive market among the stallion farms, and it’s tough to put the toothpaste back in the tube.”

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WORLD’S BEST HORSES OF 2008

Tuesday, January 13th, 2009

By Ray Paulick
There are a number of ways to look at the just-released World Thoroughbred Rankings, which were compiled by racing officials/handicappers from around the globe and published by the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities. Which country had the highest representation? What about the stallions that produced the highest number of world-class runers and the trainers who developed them?

The rankings of horses from around the world are updated throughout the year, and can be viewed at the Web site of the IFHA, which maintains historical rankings as well. Click here to see the complete list of 2008 World Thoroughbred Rankings.

Leading Sires of Horses 
On World Thoroughbred Rankings
Sire Ranked
Horses
Sire’s Sire Farm Stands Located
Galileo 8 Sadler’s Wells Coolmore Ireland
Montjeu 8 Sadler’s Wells Coolmore Ireland
Sadler’s Wells 8 Northern Dancer Pensioned Ireland
Danehill 7 Danzig Deceased Ire/Aus
Kingmambo 6 Mr. Prospector Lane’s End Kentucky
Chester House 5 Mr. Prospector Deceased Kentucky
Fuji Kiseki 5 Sunday Silence Shadai Japan
Encosta de Lago 4 Fairy King Coolmore Australia
Flying Spur 4 Danehill Arrowfield Australia
Rock of Gibraltar 4 Danehill Coolmore Ireland
Tiznow 4 Cee’s Tizzy WinStar Kentucky
Agnes Tachiyon 3 Sunday Silence Shadai Japan
Cape Cross 3 Green Desert Kildangan Stud Ireland
Giant’s Causeway 3 Storm Cat Coolmore/Ashford Kentucky
Grass Wonder 3 Silver Hawk Breeders’ Stallion Station Japan
Jet Master 3 Jet Lightning Klipdrif Stud South Africa
O’Reilly 3 Last Tycoon Waikato Stud New Zealand
Rahy 3 Blushing Groom Three Chimneys Kentucky
Street Cry 3 Machiavellian Darley Kentucky
Zamindar 3 Gone West Banstead Manor Great Britain

From a nationalistic point of view, American interests dominated the standings by placing 84 U.S.-trained horses on the list of Northern and Southern Hemisphere runners, aged 3 and up, who were weighted at 115 pounds or higher. That list is headed, of course, by the 2007 Horse of the Year, Curlin, who was weighted at 130 pounds, equal to the weight assigned the Irish-trained 3-year-old, New Approach. The number of U.S.-trained horses is nearly twice as many as the 43 from Great Britain making the list, but it only stands to reason since there are far more races and graded stakes in the United States than in any other country. Following Great Britain was Australia ,with 36; Japan, 28; France, 27; Ireland, 21; Hong Kong, 13; Germany, 11; United Arab Emirates, 10; South Africa, 6; New Zealand, 3;  Spain, 3; Canada, 2; Brazil, 1; Hungary, 1; Italy, 1; and Turkey, 1.

Not surprisingly, Aidan O’Brien, the young master of Ballydoyle in Ireland, trains the most runners on the list with 14. O’Brien is private trainer for Coolmore’s John Magnier and his associates. Sir Michael Stoute and Saeed bin Suroor were next, with nine each, followed by Robert Frankel, 8, Andre Fabre, 7, and Mike de Kock, with 6.

From a sire standpoint, Coolmore was a dominating force, as the accompanying table shows, led by their trio of the pensioned legend, Sadler’s Wells, along with young stars Galileo and Montjeu, both of whom were sired by Sadler’s Wells. Each of the three was represented by eight horses on the World Rankings. Following that top trio is another stallion associated with Coolmore, Danehill, who shuttled between Australia and Ireland. He has seven horses ranked at 115 pounds or higher for 2008, and also is the sire of two of the others on this list, Flying Spur and Rock of Gibraltar.

The highest American-based sire on the list is the Lane’s End stallion Kingmambo, who is represented by six runners on the World Rankings. Next is Chester House, a son of Mr. Prospector who stood at Juddmonte Farm before his unfortunate and premature death at age 8 in 2003. He was produced by the preeminent broodmare, Toussaud, who died most recently.

The 2008 World Thoroughbred Rankings were compiled by the World Rankings Supervisory Committee (a panel of handicappers/racing secretaries affiliated to the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities) in Hong Kong in December 2008. The committee comprised :

Nigel Gray (co-chairman)
Hong Kong

Garry O’Gorman (co-chairman)
Ireland

Greg Carpenter
Australia

Gerald Sauque
France

Dominic Gardiner-Hill
Great Britain

Phillip Smith
Great Britain

Harald Siemen
Germany

Marco Rinaldi
Italy

Kazuhito Matano, Dr
Japan

Takahiro Uno
Japan

Dean Nowell
New Zealand

Mike Wanklin
Singapore

Roger Smith
South Africa

Melvin Day
UAE

Tom Robbins
USA

with the following also present as observers :

David Hunter
Australia

Steven Lym
Canada

Bahadir Gur
Turkey

Taylan Karaer
Turkey
* * * * * *

For further details on the World Thoroughbred Rankings (WTR), please contact :

Nigel Gray, co-chairman World Rankings Supervisory Committee
Head of Handicapping and Race Planning, Hong Kong Jockey Club
Telephone +852 2966 8337
Email nigel.c.gray@hkjc.org.hk

Garry O’Gorman, co-chairman World Rankings Supervisory Committee
Senior Flat Handicapper, Irish Turf Club
Telephone +353 5997 26596
Email gaogorman@eircom.net

Tom Robbins, chairman North American Ratings Committee
Vice President (Racing), Del Mar Thoroughbred Club
Telephone +1 858 792 4230
Email tomr@dmtc.com

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report

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YOU’VE GOT OPINIONS!

Monday, January 5th, 2009
By Ray Paulick

“It’s hard to get half the people in this industry to agree on what day it is,” a Central Kentucky breeder said to me a couple of weeks ago, shortly after the Breeders’ Cup announced suspension of the stakes supplement program for 2009. “I can’t believe 83% of the people voting in your poll agreed that the Breeders’ Cup board made the wrong decision.”

The day after the results of the Daily Paulick Poll were reported (83% opposed the decision by the board of directors not to use cash reserves to fund the program, 10% supported it and 7% were unsure), the Breeders’ Cup reversed field, reinstating the stakes supplements – at least for 2009. Breeders’ Cup president Greg Avioli said he did not “anticipate the fervor of the response” to the original decision to suspend the program. Apparently, the poll results reflected the response Avioli and board members received in the way of telephone calls and emails from nominators to the Breeders’ Cup from around the country.

This wasn’t the first time judgments ran strong on an issue on which readers of the Paulick Report were asked to vote. The polls are not scientific, but the results are quite interesting and we are flattered by the daily response. This much we’ve learned: You’ve got opinions.

The most recent results, in fact, represent the strongest sentiment of any of the 40 polls we have conducted since just before the Breeders’ Cup World Championships in late October. (Click here to see archives of all the Daily Paulick Poll results.) We asked, “Does the National Thoroughbred Racing Association provide a strong central organization to move racing forward in the future?” The results have been stunning, with 94% saying “no” and only 6% answering “yes.”

In some ways, the question about the NTRA mirrored the results of earlier polls regarding the state of the industry and thoughts about some of the organizations that lead it. In mid-November, we asked, “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the Thoroughbred industry in the United States at this time.” The question was parallel to the right track/wrong track question the Gallup organization periodically asks of American citizens about the state of the nation.

According to our poll, 91% answered “dissatisfied,” suggesting the industry is currently on the wrong track. Of the remainder, 4% said they were satisfied and 5% were unsure. One e-mailer suggested that the 4% who said they were satisfied must not have understood the question.

Along those same lines, in early December we asked, “Are you confident the individuals in charge of the most prominent racing and breeding organizations in the United States are adequately addressing the problems the industry is currently facing?” That resulted in an 85% no confidence vote, with 10% saying they are confident in our industry leaders and 5% unsure.

A specific question about one of the year’s biggest stories, the creation of the NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance, indicated skepticism among voters. While 8% agreed that it was a “major step forward in the areas of medication and safety issues and will result in significant improvements” and 27% called it a “good idea, but it’s too early to say whether or not it will be effective,” fully 44% voted that the alliance was “designed to keep the federal government from stepping in and taking action” on safety and medication. Another 22% said it will be “ineffective because the NTRA lacks authority to enforce its recommendations.”

Poll responses to questions about how to improve the economics of racing were less conclusive. For example, we asked which of three areas of growth were most important to the future success of racing: reinvigorating on-track business, expanding account wagering through TV or on-line video streaming, or getting subsidies from slot machines or other forms of gaming. Reinvigorating on-track business got the most votes, 45% of respondents, barely ahead of the 41% who believe account wagering is the industry’s best hope. Only 14% believe growth from slots/alternative gaming is the answer. A more specific question about slot machines ended with a four-way dead heat, with each of the following answers getting 25% of the votes: 1) slots are a short-term fix to boost revenue; 2) they are a long-term necessity for racing to be competitive; 3) they are a necessary evil; and 4) I oppose slot machines at tracks.

On the issue of simulcast revenue, the poll run in conjunction with an article by Fred Pope on what he calls “Priority 1: Racing’s Business Model” found 63% agreeing with Pope that host tracks and owners where the live race is run should get the lion’s share of takeout revenue. Another 29% believe it should be divided equally between the host site and where the bet is taken, and only 7% support the current model that leaves most of the revenue from simulcast wagers with the bet takers.

The level of takeout has been hotly debated in the comment sections of Pope’s article and several other related pieces. Our only poll question on the subject came after the Kentucky Horse Racing Task Force recommended an increase in takeout to help fund additional staff for the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. Only 17% agreed with that recommendation, with 83% opposed to an increase in takeout to fund the commission.

We’ve touched on many other areas in our polls. For example, 55% of voters opposed Breeders’ Cup putting all of the filly and mare races on the Friday program of the two-day championships, with 18% in support and 27% taking a “wait and see” approach; 49% opposed having the Breeders’ Cup dirt races run on a synthetic track, while 39% supported it and 12% unsure. In the breeding world, in mid-December, 65% of voters said stud fees had not been reduced enough, 31% said the reductions were “about right,” and 4% felt they had been lowered too much. A comparison of the three highest-priced new stallions of 2009 found that Henrythenavigator offered greater value and opportunity for success to breeders than Curlin and Big Brown. The votes were 52% for Henrythenavigator, 44% for Curlin and 4% for Big Brown.

Finally, in light of the depressed bloodstock markets and a downward trend in pari-mutuel handle in 2008, a year-end poll asked readers if they believe 2009 will be a better year. Only 24% said they feel 2009 will be improved from 2008, with 52% saying it will be worse and 24% believing it will be the same.

Naturally, we hope our readers will be proven wrong and that 2009 will be a year that the industry addresses some of its biggest issues: organizational structure, leadership and a new business model that reflects the reality that roughly 10% of wagers are taken on-track where a race is being run. It’s clear there is a high level of discontent currently running throughout the industry, but it’s just as obvious that the passion to have racing stage a comeback is equally strong.

Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report


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JOCKEY CLUB: A BREED APART FROM THE AQHA

Monday, December 29th, 2008
By Ray Paulick

One of the first projects that landed on my desk when I joined the Thoroughbred Times as managing editor in 1988 was a feature story on the Jockey Club, the organization historically entrusted with registering Thoroughbreds and being the keeper of the Stud Book. The article was accompanied by a lengthy mail-in survey of Thoroughbred Times readers. The story and the survey results were of great interest, for at the time I had no idea how broadly the Jockey Club reached across the entire industry and how unhappy rank and file breeders then were with the organization’s service, pricing and activities.

It should be noted that there was an agenda to the article. The Thoroughbred Times was then owned by Richard F. Broadbent, whose Bloodstock Research Information Services was facing new competition from a subsidiary of the Jockey Club. There were questions about whether a tax-exempt breed registry like the Jockey Club should create a subsidiary to compete with a private enterprise company like BRIS, which supplied statistical data to breeders, owners and various publications. A few years later, the Jockey Club helped form another for-profit company, Equibase, which competed with the Daily Racing Form to collect racing results (the Form eventually closed its track and field operations and became Equibase’s biggest customer). The Jockey Club has since started other for-profit businesses.

One of the things that struck me was the comparison between how the Jockey Club and the American Quarter Horse Association conduct their business. The Jockey Club is clearly a breed apart from its Quarter Horse counterpart. The AQHA, then and now, is a relatively transparent organization, one whose membership is open and whose leadership is democratically elected through regional and national elections. There is a board of directors, from which comes an executive committee and elected officers. The AQHA has term limits that prevent individuals from maintaining longstanding control of the organization. The AQHA web site publishes a great deal of information about its governance and membership rules, which can be read here.

By comparison, membership in the Jockey Club has always been by invitation only. Click here for an explanation about membership. It is "governed" by a rotating board of stewards, though that term is used loosely since the Jockey Club has been under the firm control of just two men since 1982, when Ogden Mills “Dinny” Phipps was named chairman and William S. Farish became vice chairman (pictured left). Click here to see the current list of Jockey Club members, stewards, and officers.

The AQHA is a huge organization that maintains the registration of more than five million Quarter Horses, with 135,000 registered in 2007 alone. There are nearly 350,000 AQHA members. According to Internal Revenue Service Form 990 for tax exempt organizations, the AQHA generated $54.4 million in revenue in the 2005-06 fiscal year, the most recent year available. At that time it had $73 million in total assets, including nearly $49 million in investment securities. Click here for the AQHA Form 990.

The AQHA, like the Jockey Club, maintains pedigree records, but also promotes the Quarter Horse breed through horse shows and publishes three magazines (the Quarter Horse Journal, the Quarter Horse Racing Journal, and America’s Horse) that had total circulation of over 400,000 in 2006.

The AQHA charges as little as $25 to register a Quarter Horse foal if done within seven months of birth. The organization is based in Amarillo, Texas, and its highest-paid officer, longtime executive vice president Billie G. Brewer, earned an annual salary of $424,928; treasurer Lee Callaway was paid $221,965 (both figures are from the IRS Form 990.) The two executive salaries represented 5.5% of the AQHA’s total payroll of $11,725,124.

The Jockey Club is also a rich organization, one that is exempt from federal taxes but also has several wholly owned for-profit subsidiaries. The Jockey Club’s 2006 IRS Form 990 states that it registered 37,300 foals that year. The Jockey Club generated $13.2 million in revenue in 2006, the most recent year the figures are available. It claimed $32 million in total assets, including $21.6 million in investment securities. Click here for the Jockey Club Form 990.

In addition, the Jockey Club claimed that its subsidiaries generated over $25.7 million in income for 2006 ($13.7 million by TJC Holdings Inc. & Subsidiaries, which is engaged in information services and software solutions; $4.9 million by The Jockey Club Racing Services, for the collection of Thoroughbred racing data; and $7.1 million by The Jockey Club Technology Services, Inc., for its technology services). Click here for more information on those subsidiaries, which include shared ownership in the data collection company Equibase, and full ownership of TJCIS (The Jockey Club Information Systems  and data supplier Equineline), and InCompass Solutions, which provides software systems for racetracks.

The Jockey Club’s IRS Form 990 lists its annual Round Table Conference in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., publication of its Fact Book, and providing financial support to other industry organizations among reasons for its tax-exempt status, in addition to its breed-registry responsibilities.

The Jockey Club charges $200 to register a Thoroughbred foal, considerably higher than the AQHA’s fee. Its last increase was in 2000, when it was upped from $175. The Jockey Club, which for many years was known as the “New York Jockey Club,” relocated its registration department from New York to Kentucky in 1988. 

Its highest-paid officer is president Alan Marzelli  (pictured, left), who earned $672,796 in 2006, 58% more than the AQHA’s top executive. The Jockey Club has three executive vice presidents: James Gagliano, with a salary of $256,885; Daniel Fick, $243,546; and Laura Banllaro, $243,804. IRS Form 990 also lists but does not itemize another $542,776 in 2006 pension plan contributions for those officers. The salaries represented 39.1% of the Jockey Club’s total payroll of $3,626,092 (exclusive of its subsidiaries, each of which have its own executive staff and employees).

The Jockey Club’s 2006 tax return came to light recently when an entity called “CTBA Boardwatch” (which generally concerns itself with the inner workings of the California Thoroughbred Breeders Association) distributed IRS Form 990 to numerous individuals. A number of those people contacted the Paulick Report and were outraged over the salaries paid to Marzelli and his three executive vice presidents.

I don’t know the going rate of executive compensation for a tax-exempt company in New York, where three of the four Jockey Club officers are based (only Dan Fick, a former AQHA executive, is located in the Lexington offices of the Jockey Club). Perhaps those numbers are perfectly in line with other non-profits. I would imagine, though, that the going rate for an executive staff is higher in New York than it would be in Kentucky.

It does seem strange to me that the Jockey Club continues to maintain a nicely appointed office in the high-rent district of midtown Manhattan, on 52nd Street just off Park Avenue. I doubt that it’s gotten many walk-in customers seeking to register their foals since the registration department was moved to Lexington more than 20 years ago. It is conveniently located near the headquarters of Bessemer Trust, the Phipps family-run wealth management firm whose offices are just a few blocks away on Fifth Avenue.

I asked Jockey Club communications officer Bob Curran why the Jockey Club continues to have a New York office 20 years after the organization’s primary function was relocated to Lexington. A few days later I received the following statement from Jockey Club president Marzelli: “Beginning in 1989, when the first of our commercial subsidiaries was incorporated, The Jockey Club has created and developed a group of for-profit subsidiaries and strategic partnerships, each designed to serve specific segments within the industry by utilizing highly efficient, state-of-the-art technology platforms. We have built and managed this growing list of technology-based companies with a corporate office based in New York and operations centers in Lexington, Ky., and Mountain View, Calif.”

That didn’t really answer the question “why a New York office is necessary” although it did tell me something I didn’t know; namely, that the Jockey Club now has a division in California’s high-tech Silicon Valley town of Mountain View.

The bigger question is who is the Jockey Club accountable to. Is it simply Phipps and Farish and their hand-picked stewards? Is the breeders who have paid registration fees over the 100-plus years of its existence? Is the Thoroughbred industry at large? If there is accountability to the industry, why isn’t there more transparency in the operational and financial activities of the Jockey Club and its various subsidiaries? Why is its membership so restrictive and its governance so secretive?

James Gagliano, one of the aforementioned executive vice presidents, touched on some of these questions, during the Jockey Club Round Table in August in which he discussed some of the activities of the Jockey Club and its affiliate for-profit companies. Click here to read Gagliano’s remarks.

Are you satisfied that the Jockey Club is properly and responsibly representing the best interests of the Thoroughbred industry? Let us know in the comment section below, or take the Daily Paulick Poll about the Jockey Club and its activities, located on the left-hand column of the Paulick Report home page.

Copyright © 2008, The Paulick Report

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