AND THE WINNER IS …
Just down the road from the Four Seasons Beverly Wilshire Hotel, site of tonight’s Eclipse Awards dinner, is beautiful downtown Burbank and the world-famous studio where the “Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson” was produced for many wonderful years after Carson and his entourage moved West from New York City. (I’ll bet NBC executives wish Johnny were still around today, given the problems the network is currently experiencing with the “Tonight Show” franchise.)
One of the most famous “Tonight Show” characters was Carnac the Magnificent, the all-knowing soothsayer and divine psychic who provided answers to questions contained in "hermetically sealed envelopes kept in a mayonnaise jar on Funk & Wagnalls porch since noon that day."
I’m no Carnac, and I’m far from magnificent, but I do know where Funk & Wagnalls live. So, after peering into the mayonnaise jar, here are my fearless predictions for tonight’s Eclipse Awards:
- Lookin At Lucky, 2-year-old male
PRETTY, KINDA SURE WINNERS
- Kodiak Kowboy, male sprinter
- Juddmonte Farms, breeder
Kodiak Kowboy and Zensational each won three Grade 1 races in 2009, though two factors are going against Zensational: 1) the suspicion is that he beat up on the same horses in all three races; and 2) he was not really a factor in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, his biggest test of the year. Kodiak Kowboy was forced to miss the Sprint after getting sick before the race, but he bounced back with a strong win in the Cigar Mile Handicap later in November. But is a one-turn mile really a sprint?
I’m going against my best judgment in picking Juddmonte, since it is the most deserving candidate among the three finalists as outstanding breeder. Voters usually don’t get this one right, but I’m counting on this year being an aberration.
TOSS-UP CATEGORIES
- Gio Ponti, older male
- Mr. and Mrs. Jerry Moss, outstanding owner
- Ramon Dominguez, outstanding jockey
- Luis Saez, outstanding apprentice jockey
Where is Carnac when I need him?
Eclipse Award voters don’t like giving the older male championship to turf horses or sprinters, but I think the addition of synthetic surfaces over the last few years has blurred the distinction somewhat. Gio Ponti clearly had the best year of the three finalists (Einstein and Kodiak Kowboy are the others), but I think he is still thought of as a turf horse, so there is a built-in resistance against him by some voters. But Einstein’s two victories were turf and synthetics, so he’s not a “dirt” horse, either, and Kodiak Kowboy’s wins were all at a mile or less. If there was ever a year to not give out the award in this division, this might be it.
I’ve written about the split personality that Eclipse Award voters have shown in the outstanding owner category, sometimes giving the award to the owner with the most wins and money won and occasionally to the owner with one “big horse.” There is no definition. In my opinion, the outstanding owner of 2009 was the Godolphin/Darley entity of Sheikh Mohammed, but I think I’m in the minority here, and voters are likely to go with the feel-good story of the year and support Zenyatta’s owners, Jerry and Ann Moss.
Handicapping the jockey race is more about handicapping the voters. New Yorkers and East Coasters will vote en masse for Ramon Dominguez, Midwesterners for Julien Leparoux and Californians for Garrett Gomez. Any of the three are deserving, but I’ll give the slight edge to Dominguez. On the apprentice front, I don’t have a clue, and the information provided voters is so useless there should be consideration given to eliminating this category.
AND FINALLY, HORSE OF THE YEAR GOES TO …
But back to the issue at hand. Rachel Alexandra will win Horse of the Year because of her historic campaign that had her beating members of her own age and sex by a furlong; taking the Preakness over the Kentucky Derby winner; taking the Haskell Invitational over the Belmont and eventual Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner; and beating older horses in the Woodward. It was a remarkable campaign. I don’t think the vote will be that close, either.
My vote would have gone to Zenyatta, however, despite everything Rachel Alexandra did. I believe in the Breeders’ Cup being the most definitive event in determining champions, and think that what Zenyatta did in beating a world-class field of males at a mile and a quarter in the Classic trumps Rachel Alexandra – barely.
Wouldn’t it be nice if the 2010 Horse of the Year title is settled on the racetrack.
I hope you’ll check back tonight, for my live blog of the Eclipse Awards telecast from Beverly Hills. If you decide not to, as Carnac would say: "May the fleas of a thousand camels nest in your shorts."
Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report
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Tags: carnac the magnificent, eclipse awards, garrett gomez, gio ponti, goldikova, Informed Decision, jerry moss, juddmonte farm, julien leparoux, kodiak kowboy, lookin at lucky, Luis Saez, Mixed Up, Rachel Alexandra, ramon dominguez, She Be Wild, steve asmussen, Summer Bird, Zensational, zenyatta
January 18th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
So glad you’ll be live blogging it again this year. Now Carnac won’t have to add his classic “may a diseased camel take a liking to your sister”
January 18th, 2010 at 1:21 pm
Ray, be careful at the Slauson Cutoff.
January 18th, 2010 at 1:36 pm
Ray,
The Horse of the Year is just that not the Horse of a Particular Race. Zenyatta’s Breeders Cup was spectacular there is absolutely no disputing that. But until that shinning moment she was running against horses she should have beaten her connections didn’t put her and her record on the line until that race.
Rachel on the other hand was put to the absolute test on many occasions yet her talent and heart held her through. It would have been easy considering what happened to Eight Bells to just run her against the girls. But Jess Jackson put her outside that comfort zone time and time again and by doing so won the Horse of the Year.
January 18th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
Dear Mr. Paulick ,
I find it unbelievable that you would award Horse of the Year on the basis of one Breeder’s Cup Classic race. If that were done , it would give the BC all power and diminish American traditional dirt tracks as secondary .
I think Zenyatta’s BC feat was astounding , but does a horse win HOTY on one race ? If so , then why race any other races and have any form of standings? Everybody just show up at the BC and have at it cause its all that counts !
I find you really short-sighted on this topic. I like and read faithfully your columns normally , and
respect you greatly - but you are really off base on the HOTY .
Sincerely ,
Bobbie
January 18th, 2010 at 1:56 pm
I am with you on your opinions for tonight’s winners. I think from the picture on TTimes website when it came to HOTY the other day and previous days on their website, it was a no brainer who was going to win since Zenyatta’s picture was NO where. Rude move on their part. Another gentleman on your site, said he basically knew from sources that it was RA. He must know someone VERY important and therefore this too ruins the night’s outcome that has been so widely discussed. Therefore I have no interest in watching as it was already decided in September by many voters, even Steve Crist made that announcement before the BC, that Zenyatta had no chance of being HOTY. Zenyatta could have jumped over hurdles, climbed the Empire State Building and she still would not have won since their minds were made up. I agree with your sentiment on this issue and agree. But… with voters having their minds made up in September, there was never really any chance for Zenyatta. I have lost all respect for many turf writers as their credentials have been tarnished in this fan’s eyes. Plus, some of these voters, their credentials are a little questionable.
Wonder how they will vote next year? It is NEVER the same. They need some rules and stick to them.
January 18th, 2010 at 2:13 pm
Jess J should get owner of the year, too. He gave us Rachel in the Preakness, Haskell & Woodward…no one else would have and then, where would this year have been? One race instead of a season.
January 18th, 2010 at 2:14 pm
Great work, Ray….. I just want to say, though, that I agree with Bill Yates and Bobbie 100%.
January 18th, 2010 at 2:27 pm
Totally feel that Z represents the race of the year, and RA represents the campaign of the year. Which one reflects the horse of the year honors? Has bothered me for some time that a horse would ship from Europe for the BC and off one race here in the states would win champion honors. Why should I bother going to the races during the year? Often when I’m live watching some horse win a grade I, I’m left to wonder if I’m adding another champion experience to my resume. If it’s only about the BC, why should I bother to attende the races during the year?
Does the BC reflect a stronger consideration than other grade ones? Absolutely! But then again, so shouldn’t the Derby. But does that mean that MTB should be champion over SB? Love to read ypu Ray, but have to respectly disagree with your thoughts on this one debate.
January 18th, 2010 at 2:28 pm
I loved the live blog of the event last year and I’m glad you will be hosting again tonight or I’d be sleeping through this snoozefest by the 1/2 hour mark. I don’t understand why TVG is given an exclusive, you’d think this sport would understand that the widest exposure possible would be better. I’ll wait for the crumbs that get thrown HRTV’s way when the signal is picked up for HOTY announcement.
January 18th, 2010 at 4:12 pm
Is there a chance that Bobby Frankel may get something posthumously?? Hopefully he will be mentioned and remembered in some sort of capacity tonight.
January 18th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
What is for dinner?
January 18th, 2010 at 4:45 pm
I just found out that the New York Times had polled 73 voters out of 232 that casts ballots and Rachel Alexander slightly led 38-33 with two protesting a co-hoy. I also found out that most of these 73 were turf writers with a small percentage of racing secretaries from the east.
The majority of the remaining 159 voters were comprised of racing secretaries in the mid west and west, as well as employees of Equibase.
The author mentioned it was a lot closer that he expected.
I smell an upset.
January 18th, 2010 at 6:17 pm
Tapit…As I wrote, I will be live blogging the telecast of the awards (and will not be at the ritzy Beverly Wilshire in person as I was last year when the awards were in Miami Beach). But I’m sure dinner will be an overpriced banquet feast whose presentation will be far superior to its taste–excluding dessert of course.
January 18th, 2010 at 6:31 pm
I believe Rachel should be HOY because, as others have pointed out, her marvelous accomplishments spanned most of the year. She won the Preakness only 15 days after she won the Oaks; However, I think Zenyatta will get it because she won the Breeders Cup in a very flashy and great way. I also think that the writers may punish the Rachel because Jess Jackson didn’t bring her to California for the Breeders Cup; they punished Smarty Jones in 2004 because the owners retired him and the writers were po’d.
January 18th, 2010 at 10:32 pm
What this show needs is an orchestra, to play get off the stage to over indulging receipants.
January 18th, 2010 at 11:29 pm
what a joke…I thought that Garrett got screwed..ZENYATTA got screwed also…she ran the last 1/4 in 22….that other filly never had to carry129 lbs….that other filly beat beat 2 older male rats in the WOODWARD & just held on to last…i was going to go but something told me to stay home which i did..the MC was awful. Jess was being Jess again & Durkin should hang it up…
rachel 130 votes
ZENYATTA 99 VOTES
January 19th, 2010 at 6:38 am
Well, you’re right. Z got cheated out of HOTY again. They may as well just STOP the Breeder’s Cup ENTIRELY- it obviously carries absolutely xero weight any more. What’s the point?
And I’m tired of explaining this to RA fans but I will again; no, it’s not Horse of the Breeder’s Cup. But, you have to be AT the Breeder’s cup or you shouldn’t win. What if the Yankees made it to the world series but refused to play because it was a dome instead of a stadium but they asked for the awards anyway? After all, it’s champions, not champions of the world series!
Zenyatta should have been HOTY last year AND this year. Instead she has to prove herself AGAIN when she shouldn’t have to. At least after she kicks the beans out of RA this year everyone will see who the REAL champion is.
January 19th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
Thankyou, thankyou, thankyou!!!!