AMERICAN GRADED STAKES STANDINGS brought to you by Keeneland: LOOKIN AT A BARGAIN
By Ray Paulick
Buyers at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling sale who stopped by the Taylor Made Sales Agency barn to inspect Hip 1738 would have been looking at a bay colt by leading sire Smart Strike out of a young mare bred and raced by William S. Farish in partnership with Temple Webber Jr.
They would have been looking at a colt whose year-older half brother by Mr. Greeley, broke his maiden impressively at first asking at Saratoga a month earlier and who was entered in the Grade 2 Futurity Stakes at Saratoga on Sept. 13, one day before the yearling colt was to enter the sales ring.
But many of the potential buyers might also have been looking at a veterinarian’s report that said the colt had “mild sesamoiditis” in his left front ankle … “moderate mid-sagittal ridge erosion” in his right front ankle … “moderate sesamoiditis” in his left hind ankle … and a “post-operative lateral trochlear ridge divot” in both his left and right stifle.
Unfortunately, the details of that vet report may be what most buyers focused on, for despite the fact its conclusion was a “favorable prognosis” for racing soundness the colt was bought back by his breeders for $35,000, which wouldn’t even cover his sire’s 2006 stud fee of $50,000.
Who was the colt these buyers were looking at?
It was Lookin at Lucky, who went on to be a $475,000 graduate of the 2009 Keeneland April sale of 2-year-olds in training and is the probable champion 2-year-old Eclipse Award-winning male on the strength of four victories in American Graded Stakes races, including the Grade 1 trio of the Del Mar Futurity, Norfolk Stakes and CashCall Futurity. His only defeat in six starts came when beaten a nose in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by Vale of York.
Lookin at Lucky is just the latest example of a horse offered at public auction whose sale price was greatly diminished because of perceived physical problems that knowledgeable veterinary professionals believe would not impair its ability to train and race. He will be, as Mark Taylor of Taylor Made Sales Agency said recently, the 2010 poster child to help educate buyers about how physical or radiograph imperfections do not have to affect a horse’s racing ability or soundness.
Mark’s older brother, Duncan Taylor, who probably couldn’t dunk a basketball on an eight-foot hoop, often jokes that if NBA scouts drafted players on the basis of radiographs he might have gotten picked ahead of Michael Jordan because his X-rays are perfect.
Veterinarian Jerry Bailey and Lance Robinson, partners in Gulf Coast Farm, bred Lookin at Lucky after buying his dam, Private Feeling, for $130,000 from the Lane’s End consignment at the 2004 Keeneland November breeding stock sale. They sold Kensei for $300,000 to Jess Jackson’s Stonestreet Stables at the 2008 Barretts May 2-year-olds in training sale (Kensei went on to win the 2009 Grade 2 Jim Dandy, and Bailey and Robinson sold Private Feeling for $2 million at the 2009 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky November mixed sale).
Robinson and Bailey were high on Kensei’s younger half brother when he was entered in the 2008 Keeneland September sale. But Lookin at Lucky underwent surgery in April 2008 to remove OCD fragments from both stifles, and the aforementioned report prepared by the consignor’s veterinarian indicated other minor issues that the vet did not believe would prevent the colt from racing soundness. But, as has been the case with a long list of successful racehorses who did not sell well because of perceived issues, the report discouraged buyers who feel a horse is stigmatized by the letters OCD (which stands for osteochondritis dissecans),
So Bailey and Robinson put the colt in training and pointed him for Keeneland’s 2-year-old sale in the spring of 2009, offering him in the name of the Jerry Bailey Sales Agency. He caught the eye of trainer Bob Baffert after a one-furlong breeze in 10 seconds and brought the top price of $475,000 on the sale’s second day. Baffert, who said Lookin at Lucky X-rayed fine before the 2-year-old sale, told the Paulick Report he was unaware of the issues that accompanied the colt into the sale ring the previous September. Baffert bought the colt in the name of Mike Pegram, who now races Lookin at Lucky in partnership with Karl Watson and Paul Weitman.
“There’s a lot of times when you’re looking for athletes that it’s better not to have too much information,” the Hall of Fame trainer said. “There are so many horses that don’t ‘vet’ that turn out to be runners. I’ve trained horses that had OCD lesions and it never bothered them.”
Mark Taylor, who serves as president of the Consignors and Commercial Breeders Association, said one of the organization’s primary goals is to educate buyers about veterinary issues that come up at Thoroughbred auctions. To that end, the CBA has published several informative and useful booklets, including one that specifically deals with OCD. (Click here for a copy of that booklet, written by Frank Mitchell, and here to learn more about the CBA.)
Taylor said another one of the CBA’s projects is to gather racing results data for horses in various categories assigned by veterinarians based on radiographs and their prognosis for racing soundness made at the time they were offered at public auction. “Just at Taylor Made, we’ve got 90% of the X-ray reports of all the Grade 1 winners we’ve offered, starting with horses born in 1980 to the present,” he said. “It’s amazing some of the X-ray train wrecks that have gone on to be really good horses.”
Lookin at Lucky wasn’t one of those train wrecks. But the minor issues he had were discouraging enough to potential buyers that they passed on an opportunity to buy a horse who turned into a three-time Grade 1 winner and the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. That’s the kind of horse that everyone is looking for.
Copyright © 2009, The Paulick Report
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Tags: American Graded Stakes Standings, Barretts May, breeders' cup juvenile, CashCall Futurity, consignor, del mar futurity, duncan taylor, Gulf Coast Farm, jerry bailey, jess jackson, jim dandy, Keeneland, keeneland november sale, Kensei, Lance Robinson, Lane's End, lookin at lucky, Mark Taylor, Norfolk Stakes, Private Feeling, smart strike, stonestreet stables, Taylor Made, Temple Webber Jr., Vale of York, william farish


December 24th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Ray,
A timely article on soundness and perception. In the CBA booklet you referred to above, some of the many insightful comments came from Bob Baffert, who has trained more top horses than we could shake a stick at.
As one unnamed vet said, “You can’t pick horses off a vet report.” He is absolutely right. The game cannot be pinned down to a particular breeding farm, pedigree pattern, consignor, nor veterinary approach. It isn’t that simple. But it sure is fun trying.
Happy Holidays
Frank
December 24th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Great article, this needs to be sent to every major buyer and vet in the world. It might have an effect on changing the way buyers look at yearlings.
Anyone want to help demolish the repository at Keeneland!! It does not seem to have any relevance to the future racetrack success of sales horses.
December 24th, 2009 at 7:11 pm
Everybody knows a breeder who had a nice horse “killed” by a reading of an Xray. First reaction is “kill the Vet”. Not fair. Vets report what they find. It is rare that a layman asks if the condition will result in an effect on performance. On the other hand, Vets must protect their tails, so cannot be expected to offer 100 per cent assurance that a condition will not come against the horse. (There is a Vet who, for fear of repercussions, in her reports knocks every horse - playing it 100% safe)
Very few sellers can afford to put an unsold yearling into preparation for an “in-training sale”.Even fewer are so lucky as to have a real horseman take a look at the horse.
Is there a solution? The C&CBA can print volumes that however well-intentioned will not cure the ailment.
Heretical though it may seem, Craig offers the best solution. The repository has done more harm than good to the business.
December 25th, 2009 at 9:37 am
Baffert also purchased War Emblem and Real Quiet — 2 others with fuzzy vet reports.
December 25th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
YOU NEVER KNOW>> I was at the 1961 Saratoga YEARLING Sale & while walking thru the sale barns area in the afternoon of the day before the sale> i saw over 60 people standing in a semi circle..I thought something bad happened & went over to inquire what was going on.A tall fellow told me “OH LOOK AT THAT BEAUTY..THAT COLT WILL BE THE SALES TOPPER TOMORROW NIGHT”…He was just that.. C.V. WHITNEY bought him for $80,000 & named him “EIGHTY GRAND”. He was by HYPERION - NASRETTA by NASRULLAH foal of 1960 &
bred in GB..His $80,000 purchase back in 1961 is equal to ” $578,809 in todays money
I heard older men say that he would be the next coming of JESUS….Well he started 4 times & never picked his feet up & went to stud..nothing happened so when he was 12 years old he was sent to PUERTO RICO & sired 3 stake winners..He died in 1980. > YOU NEVER KNOW<
December 25th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
So if you know what your looking for you don’t need a Vet? Baffert just gets lucky by accident.
December 25th, 2009 at 9:14 pm
I wouldn’t necessarily call it luck by accident.I would call it experience over luck.Something to many don’t realize that the day to day working with horses brings to someone of Baffert’s caliber.
Over 30 years I’ve seen 100’s of supposedly bad conformation horses that have gone on to defy their conformation faults.I remember “Lost Code” (he looked like he could run in just about any direction-sold for 7k-what was it but a tad over 2 mil he made when it was tough to make 2 mil);club footed “Gilded Time” (another Breeder’s Cup Juvenile winner);Real Quiet (a $17,000 yearling that made 3.2 million with multiple chips);It’s about breeding and pedigree and doing it right and giving them the opportunities.Heck,the reason most of those oversized conformation show horses don’t run is because they weren’t even fast enough in their paddocks to hurt themselves and most have a hard time getting out of their own way.And sadly in 35 years in the horse business I don’t think I’ve ever found a vet that didn’t find something that might be potentially wrong.An old saying on the backside use to be that a horse vet makes for a bad trainer,cause’ there’s always a reason why they just can’t run yet.
December 25th, 2009 at 10:11 pm
I’ve heard Baffert called a lot of things but lucky isn’t one of them. He’s a smart horseman no question about it.
December 25th, 2009 at 10:47 pm
I was at the OBS sale when LOST CODE went thru..a girl got him with a $5,000 bid..all he had was a club foot..He went to BIRMINGHAM @ BROKE his maiden was sold for $30k & went on to win the derby there & then on to the real races..
December 30th, 2009 at 7:53 am
The same thing happened with Curlin due to corrective surgery a “shadow” of potential OCD showed up on the X-Ray. He sold for 57K and as the line goes “the rest is history”.
December 30th, 2009 at 9:47 am
How many horses that had the issues Lookin At Lucky had as a yearling were flops as racehorses? You need to consider those ones too, not just hold up the needle in the haystack after the fact.
Baffert passed on Lookin At Lucky as a yearling, waited for the physical issues to clear up, and got to see the horse’s speed and stride in a training sale. His client paid a premium for that privilege $475,000.
If buying yearlings with bad vet reports was a sound investment strategy, more people would do it.
December 30th, 2009 at 9:58 am
Vet reports would be far more relevant if horses raced clean, that is off chemical.
December 30th, 2009 at 9:59 am
sorry… off chemicals.
December 30th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
Lance Briggs…. I don’t think the point is for buyers to invest in yearlings with “bad” vet reports, but for them to understand there are different levels of imperfection in radiographs of horses being sold: those that are extreme and likely to impair a horse’s chances of training, those that are moderate and may impair a horses, and those with minor issues, such as Lookin at Lucky, that are not likely to impair or prevent a horse from training and racing.
By looking only for the perfect set of X-rays, buyers are bypassing many good racing prospects.
December 31st, 2009 at 2:18 am
A seller asked