AMERICAN GRADED STAKES STANDINGS brought to you by Keeneland: JUVENILE HALL
By Ray Paulick
With the Experimental Free Handicap released today, it seems the appropriate time to take a look at the 2-year-old winners of 2009 American Graded Stakes. There are a few trends among the 33 individual 2-year-old AGS winners that jumped off the data pages compiled by the Paulick Report. Among them: homebreds are the exception and not the rule when it comes to winning 2-year-old graded stakes; Todd Pletcher was the king among trainers of 2-year-olds; and finally, despite the ready to race aspect of 2-year-old auctions, graduates of those sales do not appear to have much of an edge when it comes to winning an AGS race at two.
Here are some nuggets of information that came out of the research:
-Of the 33 2-year-old AGS winners, 11 of them were repeat AGS winners in the United States; champion 2-year-old male Lookin at Lucky was the only one to win more than two individual AGS races (Best Pal Stakes, Del Mar Futurity, Norfolk, CashCall Futurity).
-Todd Pletcher trained five of the AGS winners: Ailalea,. Devil May Care, Interactif, Rule and Super Saver; Steve Asmussen had three (Hot Dixie Chick, Thiskyhasnolimit and Western Smoke); training two each were Wayne Catalano, Rick Dutrow, Wayne Lukas, and Jerry Romans. So nearly 50% (16 of 33) of the 2-year-old AGS winners came from six barns. Interestingly, Lookin at Lucky was Bob Baffert’s only 2-year-old AGS winner.
-Seven stallions accounted for 14 of the 33 AGS winners (42%); siring two AGS winners each were Broken Vow, Dixie Union, Maria’s Mon, Northern Afleet, Pulpit, Roman Ruler, and Tiznow.
-Bill Casner and Kenny Troutt’s WinStar Farm had an outstanding year with 2-year-olds, breeding and racing a trio of AGS winners: Rule, Super Saver, and American Lion (the latter bred in partnership with William Lockridge). In fact those three represent half of the six AGS winners who raced for their breeders. That means that 27 of the 33 AGS winners were either sold at public auction or privately by their breeder. One that wasn’t sold was Nancy Mazzony’s homebred 2-year-old filly champion, She Be Wild.
-Of those sold at public auction (our statistics do not include horses offered and not sold or those catalogued and withdrawn), more came from Keeneland’s September yearling sale than anywhere else. Fourteen graduates of that sale went on to become 2009 AGS winners as 2-year-olds; with three each were Fasig-Tipton Kentucky’s yearling sale and Keeneland’s November mixed sale (weanlings). Two AGS winners came out of the 2009 Fasig-Tipton Calder 2-year-old. OBS had one graduate each from its February, March and April 2-year-old sale go on to win an AGS race, and one from its August yearling sale. Lookin at Lucky was the lone AGS winner sold at the Keeneland April sale of 2-year-olds.
-All told, 19 yearling sale graduates won AGS races at 2; six came from 2-year-old sales, and three were sold as weanlings. These stats include several horses that were pinhooked from year to the next. By age, the weanlings sold represented 11% of the total 2-year-old AGS winners; yearlings 68%, and 2-year-olds, 21%. If we total all foals of 2007 sold at auction as weanlings, yearlings or 2-year-olds, the breakdown is very similar: 15% weanlings; yearlings 66%; and 2-year-olds 19%.
-Finally, Taylor Made Sales Agency and Gainesway were the top two consignors of horses that went on to win AGS races at two. Taylor Made had five (Ailalea, Backtalk, Devil May Care, Negligee and Who’s Up. Gainesway sold three: Buddy’s Saint, Noble’s Promise, and Who’s Up (who sold as a weanling by Taylor and as a yearling by Gainesway).
Copyright © 2010, The Paulick Report
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Tags: Ailalea, American Graded Stakes Standings, Bob Baffert, Devil May Care, Experimental Free Handicap, Hot Dixie Chick, Interactif, Jerry Romans, Keeneland, lookin at lucky, rick dutrow, Ruler, steve asmussen, Super Saver, Thiskyhasnolimit, todd pletcher, Vale of York, Wayne Catalano, wayne lukas, Western Smoke
January 28th, 2010 at 3:38 pm
BRINGS BACK MEMORIES OF THE YESTERYEAR WITH THE EXPERIMENTIAL HANDICAP #1 & #2..THE #1 WAS AT 6 FURLONGS & #2 WAS AT 1: 1/16..THOSE RACES TOOK PLACE AT OLD JAMACIA IN THE 40′S & 50′S.. THE #1 WAS ON A SATURDAY & THE #2 WAS A WEEK LATER.
SOMETIMES THE #2 WAS RUN ONLY 5 DAYS AFTER THE #1 … great racing & great
3yr olds. .AFTER THOSE RACES CAME THE WOOD MEMORIAL.THAT WAS RACING AT ITS FINEST..
January 28th, 2010 at 5:13 pm
Ray–
What a disservice you have just done to two-year-old consignors
as well as to the veracity of your publication.
Graduates of juvenile sales won 11 of the 14 U.S. Grade I races of 2009,
including both Grade I Breeders’ Cup races. In five of those 14 Grade I’s
juvenile grads ran 1-2, and in two others, they ran 1-3. In every
U.S. Grade I race of 2009, a juvenile sale graduate ran 1-2-or 3.
Your editorial above states rather blithely that you do not count RNAs.
This discounts that the horse in question was indeed prepped,
breezed, consigned, and sent through the ring at a two-year-olds in
training sale. The fact that some owners elected to either sell the horse
on the sale grounds or race the horse themselves does not negate
the incredible success rate of two-year-old sales graduates. Rather,
it clearly proves that horses who are sent through two-year-olds in
training sales are highly valued by their owners, who correctly
believe they can compete successfully at the very highest levels
of racing.
We would further note here that juvenile graduates comprised nearly
30% of the Eclipse Award nominees in 2009, and took home five Eclipse
Awards–both two-year-old championships along with those for
older male, turf male, and female sprinter.
In addition, research conducted by both TBH MarketWatch and Thoroughbred
Times conclusively shows that over a 15-year span, two-year-old sales
graduates consistently outperform yearling sale graduates in all major
statistical categories:
. Percentage of winners
. Percentage of stakes winners
. Percentage of Graded stakes winners
. Average earnings per starter
. Average earnings per start
We are disappointed in the cavalier way you approached this story
with two-year-old sale season right upon us.
January 29th, 2010 at 12:21 am
Margaret Greathouse Claus –
Well, that was certainly an objective analysis, wasn’t it? In other words, if you are going to challenge someone else’s statistical analysis, it badly undermines your critique when you spin statistics to suit your own purposes.
So, for example, you assert that “Graduates of juvenile sales won 11 of the 14 U.S. Grade I races of 2009″, and yet you conveniently fail to point out that Lookin’ at Lucky accounted for three of those 11 wins. That greatly changes the meaning of the bare statistic, and if there were other multiple winners, the stat would be further degraded as an advertisement for the sales you are attempting to promote.
With regards to Ray not having used RNAs, you again fail to tell the whole story. How many of those RNAs failed to pass pre-sale vet exams? And of those that failed, enquiring minds would like to know how many of the disqualifying issues might never have arisen had the animal not been pressured to run as fast as it could at an immature stage? You make it sound as though all RNAs are simply a reflection of how highly their owners think of their horses. What nonsense.
Finally, asserting that “two-year-old sales graduates consistently outperform yearling sale graduates” doesn’t mean a damn thing without context – something that you clearly cannot be relied on to provide.