Archive for April, 2009

Join the Paulick Report as we cover the Kentucky Derby position draw with our live blog feature. Since ESPN has dropped their coverage this year, Ray will fill that void by reporting the facts and allowing you to become a part of the experience with your own commentary.

There was a two-step process, a draw of names and order that was done randomly in the same fashion as most post position draws, followed by the selection of post positions by the connections of each horse. Here is how the random selection order went:

After a brief break, the post position selection begins, with each horse’s connections getting one minute. No one used anywhere near their allotted time, perhaps realizing that this year’s draw wasn’t on ESPN but on HRTV, meaning less exposure. Mike Battaglia provided the official morning line for the Derby, commenting that he didn’t make any adjustments this year to the morning line because of post positions.

Here is the lineup following the 30-minute draw program (a second box lists the horses in post position order, with trainer, jockey and morning line odds), which didn’t include the sideline interviews with owners or trainers that ESPN brought us on this made-for-TV draw in years past.

The trend by trainers with low selection numbers to choose outside post positions continued this year, Bob Baffert and son Bode taking post 16 with the fifth selection and Todd Pletcher taking post 15 with the sixth selection. Last year, of course, the connections of the winner, Big Brown, took the outside 20 post with the 16th pick.

The last horse to win from the No. 1 post position was the front-running filly Winning Colors in 1988, and two years prior to that Ferdinand won from the rail, making a last to first rally in a brilliant ride by the late Hall of Famer Bill Shoemaker. Funny Cide (2003) and War Emblem (2002) each won from the five post, which shares the highest number of Derby winners, 12, with the one post. Keep in mind that inside posts have an advantage in the compilation of winning posts, since there’s always a horse starting from the one and other low numbers.Monarchos (2001), Charismatic (1999) and Thunder Gulcyh (1995) each won from the 16 post in the auxiliary starting gate.

I wonder, now that ESPN is not televising the post position draws for the Derby and Preakness, whether the two-phases of this will continue in future years, allowing connections to choose their starting gate number, or they will return to a standard post position draw where the numbered posts are pulled randomly. As one commenter said, these made-for-TV draws are not the most exciting events. Some trainers (especially those with the best horses) have suggested the post position choices should be based on money won or graded stakes money won or a point system using the graded stakes program. That system would give the better horses (or at least those with the most accomplishments) a chance to choose earlier than the 50-1 longshots who might end up with one of the early selection numbers using this current system.

That’s it on the draw.

It’s Tuesday night of Kentucky Derby week and that means one thing: the annual Derby Trainers Dinner, where the trainers of Derby starters have a chance to be grilled by emcees Chris Lincoln, a former host of ESPN racing telecasts, and Paul Rogers, the voice of the Louisville Cardinals and a well-known radio broadcaster. The Paulick Report will be live blogging this year’s dinner, which is put on the by Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders and the Kentucky Thoroughbred Association.
 
So forget about watching “American Idol” tonight (we all know that Adam Lambert is a cinch to win) and tune in to our live blog starting around 8 p.m Eastern. All of the trainers who show up are sure to say their horse has a good chance to win, and those who don’t will be blasted by Lincoln.

8:20 p.m. … After some brief remarks from Paul Rogers, Chris Lincoln was introduced and of course my first thought was whether he was still the svelt, handsome and debonair Chris or the over the top, needs two airline seats on Southwest Chris.  He was somewhere in between. Lincoln said it broke his heart that Quality Road had to be withdrawn from the race–not because he wanted to see Jimmy Jerkens win the race but because "I had a 40-1 future book bet on the sumbitch." Lincoln is great at this stuff.

8:25 p.m. … Dr. David Richardson introduced both Gov. Steve Beshear and his Jane, and the governor hopped on-stage to make a few remarks.  He talked about being at the track early that morning and loving the fact that Kentucky is the horse capital of the world. "Ladies and gentlemen, it is a pleasure to be here  tonight with the leadership of Kentucky’s signature industry," Beshear said, recognizing the members of the Kentucky Horse Racing Commissiono that were in attendance. Integrity is a critical part of the industry, he said, Then he moved to a different subject. "I do not want to be the governor that presides over the former horse capital of the world.  It is time that we have some form of expanded gaming in Kentucky," Beshear said to rousing applause. "I am goinig to work as hard as I can to make sure we can get this done, some way, some how."

Lincoln back up to the mike. "Dickie couldn’t make it, didn’t want to make it…so he gets my first ‘rat bastard’ of the nght," Lincoln said about Rick Dutrow, who didn’t come to the Derby  Trainers Dinner to accept the mint julep cup traditionally given to the previous year’s winning trainer.

On to the trainer interviews, and apparently the 2009 Derby Trainers Dinner is a first in that all of the Derby trainers are in attendnce.. Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas were brought up first as a team, and attempted a comedy routine. Lukas had some prepared material, obviously."He’s lost a lot of weight," Lukas said about Lincoln. "We had to get a restraining order at Burger King for him."

Baffert talked about the story of Tom McCarthy, the former teacher and principal who trains and owns General Quarters.: "This guy’s been training quarter horses before i was born," said Baffert. "He knows what he’s doinig. He’s been sandbagging everybody. he used to train at Rillito. So we’ve got to watch out for this." Lukas chimed in. "Him and Jeff Mullins," he said

"Welcome to the new master of ceremonies, D. Wayne Lukas," said Lincoln.

8:30 p.m. … Lincoln asks Lukas if Baffert being elected into the Hall of Fame cheapens the place. "In all sincerity," he said, "if you don’t put him in, you shouldn’t have it," said Lukas.

8:35 p.m. … "We’re optimistic, but we’re realistic," Lukas said about his 45th Derby starter, Flying Private, a longshot in the race. "We’ll make some noise."

Baffert said he’s led over some really good horses and "had to be poured out of a shot glass" after they ran badly. He didn’t seem to want to talk about his horse, Pioneerof the Nile, instead talking about the great experience of winning the Derby, something he’s done three times. "For all you newcomers into town, the first thing I recommend is you go to the Derby Museum," said Baffert. "It’s very emotional and you need to see it."

8:40 p.m. … Saeed bin Suroor is asked if Sheikh Mohammed is going to be in town for the Derby. He hedged a little and said "maybe," which probably means "yes." He describe his pair of Derby horses this year, Desert Party and Regal Ransom, as the best horses Godophin has brought to the Derby. "Desert Party was my favorite of all the horses we had brought over," bin Suroor said. 

8:45 p.m. … Kelly Breen, trainer of Atomic Rain and West Side Bernie, said he didn’t want to come up right after Baffert and Lukas. "That’s a tough act to follow," he said. "I kind of gave up a couple of days ago," Breen said about getting Atomic Rain into the race. The son of Smart Strike moved into the field by graded earnings with the defection of Square Eddie and the decision of trainer Todd Pletcher not to run four horses in the race. "I’m ecstatic to be here," he said. Lincoln asks what he’s thinking about as the Derby approaches. "I’m not a Kentucky boy so I’m not so sure I’ll get into ‘My Old Kentucky Home.’ Now if they play some Springsteen or Bon Jovi, that would be alright. I’m a Jersey bred."

8:50 p.m. … Eoin Harty is asked if brothers Colonel John and Mr. Hot Stuff have similar pesonalities. "No," he said, "one is an intellectual and the other is a jack-off, if you can say that." Lincoln mentions that the Dubai World Cup, which Harty won with Well Armed this year, will be worth $10 million next year. "It’s the only time you can get pissed for winning a $6 million race," Harty said, wondering why they couldn’t increase the purse in 2009.

8:55 p.m. … "This has to be the best named horse in the race," Lincoln says about Chocolate Candy as trainer Jerry Hollendorfer comes to the stage. "He’s destined to be a Hall of Famer," he adds about the Northern California based trainer. "I can’t say I know why she named this horse," he said, but I know she did name him.," Hollendorfer said of the weight-loss queen who has won the Epsom Derby with her late husband, Sid Craig. Hollendorfer said talk show host Larry King will be among Jenny Craig’s Derby guests. Lincoln pointed out that Hollendorfer has had bad luck at the Derby. "They tell me Sheikh Mohammed needs a backstop," Hollendorfer said. I don’t get it. 

9:00 p.m. … Longshot Summer Bird’s trainer Tim Ice is one of the first-time Derby participants. "We’re here and we’re going to give it everything we have," he said. "We weren’t really thinking about the Kentucky Derby," he said of the horse’s third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, his first start after breaking his maiden. "We just wanted to see how good of a horse we had."

Lincoln asks if Summer Bird’s owners are in the audience and mentions that K.K. Jayaraman is a heart surgeon. When Jayaraman and his wife first came to the Derby 20 years ago with LeRoy Jolley as their trainer,  Lincoln said he asked the owner, "How can a heart surgeon have a trainer who has no heart. "

9:06 p.m. … Larry Jones gets a big hand when he is introduced. "I think everybody agrees Friesan Fire has the pedigree for it," Jones tells Rogers when asked if the son of A.P. Indy is the best horse he’s brought to the Derby in the last three years. He was then asked about the seven-week layoff Friesan Fire has had since winning the Louisiana Derby in mid-March. "Hard Spun was coming off a six-week layoff and that had never been done," Jones said. "Eight Belles was coming off a mile and a sixteenth race, and they say that had never been done, so we’re going to make Friesan Fire overcome both of those obstacles."

9:10 p.m. … Tom McCarthy is reminded by Lincoln that’s he’s 75 years old, "which makes you even older than Wayne Lukas." "I have the eyes of a 45-year-old," McCarthy said, adding that he feels like a young man. McCarthy tells the story of a wheelchair bound Navy veteran from Lexington he met after General Quarters won the Blue Grass. The name, given to the horse by original owner Ken Ramsey, is an order given to sailors. This was the first time the veteran ever came to the races. "I just had to come," he told McCarthy. "If you knew how many times in the middle of the night I had to jump out of bed when they gave hte order ‘general quarters,’" he said.

9:15 p.m. … Bill Mott, a member of the Hall of Fame, has never had much luck in the Derby. "If we don’t win it this year," the trainer of Hold Me Back said, "we’ll just try to get it done next year." Mott said. I remember back when Mott was training primarily for the late Allen Paulson and I asked him if he was frustrated training for someone who bred horses that excelled on turf and as older runners. "Oh, Mr. Paulson wants to win the Derby," Mott said, "and so do I."

9:20 p.m. … Jeff Mullins is told that I Want Revenge will be the morning line favorite. What made you send the horse to New York, Mullins is asked. "It was time to let him see the dirt and see how he runs on it," the California-based Mullins said about the Stephen Got Even colt’s winning trips to Aqueduct for the Gotham and Wood Memorial. "It seems like he likes the dirt a lot more than the synthetic tracks," Mullins added. "His stride changes on the dirt. On the synthetics he runs with his head down. He seems to have more punch on the dirt, too." How about Joe Talamo. "For a young guy," Mullins said. "I don’t know who impressed me more, the horse or the rider. They both gave me goosebumps." There are no questions about the detention barn incident at Aqueduct that landed Mullins a seven-day suspension from the New York State Racing and Wagering Board. The suspension begins the day after the Derby.

9:25 p.m. .. Todd Pletcher said Join in the Dance "will be in front" in Saturday’s Derby. "He’s not the kind of horse that you can take ahold of," he says. He said his biggest concern about Florida Derby runner-up was having enough graded stakes earnings ot get into the race. It turned out not to be a problem with defections and dropouts. "He just wasn’t ready to run until January," Pletcher said of Dunkirk’s late start, which means he’ll try to break the long string of Derby winners that had at least one race as a 2-year-old. "But he hasn’t missed a beat after we got him at Keeneland in the fall and he went down to Palm Meadows for the winter," Pletcher said. Pletcher was asked about his long Derby losing streak by Lincoln. "I hoped we might get through this without being reminded of that," Pletcher said with a straight face. Does the four-time Eclipse Award trainer do anything without a straight face?

9:25 p.m. … McLean Robinson, trainer of Win Willy, seems like a humble fellow who doesn’t seem used to the spotlight. I’m not sure, but I think he said he hopes Win Willy will run better than he thinks he will. That’s a confidence builder.

9:30 p.m. … By contrast, Musket Man’s trainer Derek Ryan seemed like a natural with a microphone in his hands. "Your horse is five for six and he might be 20 or 30-1," Paul Rogers said. "He can’t read the odds-board," Ryan said. "He’s done about everything we’ve asked of it."

9:30 p.m. … Gary Stute said Papa Clem reminds him of the Bob Baffert-trained Derby winner Silver Charm because "he just keeps on trying. … And I want to thank Win Willy, because if hadn’t been for him (he beat Old Fashioned in the Rebel Stakes) I wouldn’t have gone to the Arkansas Derby."  Papa Clem has been first or second in most of his races but was taken back by off the pace by Rafael Bejarano in the Arkansas Derby. "I was a little nervous," admitted Stute, the son of Mel Stute. Bo Hirsch, the owner of Papa Clem, is the son of the late California breeding and racing icon Clement Hirsch. If you ever have a chance to talk with another icon of California racing, Dr. Jack Robbins, ask him to tell you some Clement Hirsch stories. He’s full of them.

9:35 p.m. … Bennie Woolley is the first trainer I’ve seen at this dinner on crutches. Why is the trainer of longshot Mine That Bird on crutches" A motorcycle accident., he says. I missed the rest of it, and since I am running out of battery power and Wooley was the last of the trainers interviewed, I’m afraid that is it from the 2009 Derby Trainers Dinner.

In a week that should have shown little movement in the rankings of the Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment, the Paulick Derby Index has actually shown some fluctuation as co-favorite Quality Road was withdrawn from the race on Monday because of complications resulting from a quarter crack. I Want Revenge, clearly now the favorite among our ballot stuffers, will lead a top ten that has lost some star power with several favorites not making the trip due to injury. That being said, this is still as strong a group as we have seen in years. The Derby this year should be an exciting one to watch with anywhere from 5-10 horses in legitimate contention.
 
You will also notice that the final week’s Paulick Derby Index by AmWest Entertainment features only the top ten contenders. We did this to put an onus on the top echelon of the field and make our last list more exclusive.

Finally, due to the fact that all ballots are submitted by 9 PM EST Monday night and well before Square Eddie’s withdrawal, you will see him on several ballots.
 
Will the PDI be the great predictor it portends to be on Saturday? Only time will tell.

1-Pioneerof the Nile. The Kentucky Derby is a tough race to win, even if everything goes your way, and it’s almost impossible for a horse to win if his training has been interrupted. Witness Unbridled’s Song, who battled foot problems coming up to the 1996 Derby, where he might have been the best horse but finished fifth while racing with a bar shoe on the problematic foot. If Quality Road’s connections felt their horse was sound and sent him to Louisville, I would have bet against him, simply because of the interruption in training. Everything has gone perfectly for Pioneerof the Nile: no interruptions in training due to bad weather or nagging injuries, and he is coming up to this race in the best form of his career. The Empire Maker colt has done everything asked of him, and I doubt trainer Bob Baffert would trade places with anybody.

2-I Want Revenge. It’s the horse, stupid. I’m no fan of trainer Jeff Mullins or the IEAH partners that bought into this son of Stephen Got Even, but I do like I Want Revenge. How can you not like a horse that does what he did to win the Wood Memorial after a disastrous start? The race before that, the Gotham Stakes, he showed enough early speed to press the pace and draw off in the stretch to a an easy victory. He is 0-for-2 against Pioneerof the Nile, though his first loss, by a nose in the Cash Call Futurity, was in his first start after breaking his maiden. I think he’ll be the betting favorite, but if Pioneerof the Nile beats I Want Revenge, people will be scratching their heads and wondering why.

3-Dunkirk. Todd Pletcher has kept the son of Unbridled’s Song under the radar, staying in Florida to train while the rest of the field is in Kentucky, and I don’t fault his logic that the track on Derby Day will likely be different from the surface everyone trained on in the weeks leading up to the race. Always seems to be that way. The colt has enormous talent, but there remains that issue of a lack of experience that has stopped many previous Derby contenders with a similar profile.

4-Friesan Fire.  One thing we know: if it rains as expected, and the track is sloppy, Friesan Fire will be one happy horse. The A.P. Indy colt seemed to relish the sloppy Fair Grounds surface while winning the Louisiana Derby in a cakewalk. His training up to the race for Larry Jones has been sensational, and the only thing his resume lacks is a victory over tough competition.

5-Musket Man. Beating Giant Oak in the Illinois Derby was no great accomplishment (doesn’t somebody always beat Giant Oak?), but it’s hard to fault a horse with five wins in six starts. Yonaguska colt seems like the grinder type—not much early speed or quick mid-race acceleration—but if he gets a good enough trip under Eibar Coa I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the top flight at the eighth pole.

6-Papa Clem. Won the Arkansas Derby coming from off the pace, but Smart Strike colt has enough speed to be close up in the early going and maybe even make the lead if no one else wants it. Gary Stute learned from his father, Mel, the West Coast wizard of speed, so a late-week blowout of two or three furlongs might be used to sharpen up Papa Clem after a series of longer works.

7-Chocolate Candy. Has only one way of going, settle in near the back of the field and make a late run, so you know that racing luck will play a role for Candy Ride colt. Hollendorfer has won the Kentucky Oaks twice (Lite Light in 1991 and Pike Place Dancer in1996), proving he can win at the top level of the game while being based in California’s “B  Circuit” in the Bay Area. Training well, but has to have everything go his way for a victory.

8-Advice. Wise guys are asking how a horse that couldn’t win the Sunland Park Derby is going to win the Kentucky Derby.  Real Quiet, who came within a nose of winning the 1998 Triple Crown, couldn’t win in New Mexico, either, finishing third there as a 2-year-old in a pair of races. Advice demonstrated some quality last year, finishing second but DQed and placed third in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, and his last to first rally in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes was eye-catching. But races were on Polytrack, however, and he has yet to prove himself on a conventional dirt track (though the same can be said of Pioneerof the Nile).

9-Desert Party. I like the way the son of Street Cry has trained since arriving from Dubai, but I’ve seen previous Godolphin horses looking sharp in the morning before fading on Derby afternoon. If this one is any different, he’ll win without my backing at the windows.

10-Mr. Hot Stuff. Have always thought this Tiznow colt was going to develop into a good one, but it’s taken longer than expected. He’ll be running late in the Derby, but I think he looks more like a Travers winner.

By Bradford Cummings

Last week, we received some “feedback” on the picture of Paris Hilton that was run on the Paulick Report. Divided almost completely down gender lines, our readers either thought we were modern day heroes or seemed content to categorize us as barbarians still incapable of envisioning a world for women outside of the kitchen. And while the picture was admittedly lacking in some taste, the overarching theme is apparent; Paris Hilton and celebs of her ilk get people talking.
 
And if they can get people talking, isn’t it actually a good thing that they come to the Derby each year even if they couldn’t tell the difference between quarter crack and a quarterback? Sure, we all shutter at the likes of Nick Lachey, Kim Kardasian and Tila Tequila becoming the face of our most prestigious weekend. They are celebrity sideshows, most famous just for being famous. But in light of our sport’s struggles to get nationwide attention, one can’t deny the exposure when reporters from People, US Weekly and In Touch will actually be at Churchill Downs.
 
We as an industry are always trying to figure out how to move beyond our current constraints as a niche sport.  Our promotional bodies have been ineffective in marketing the sport beyond its core base of fans while bad news shrouds our industry in a veil of negativity. And because of these factors, our ratings on ESPN and other networks are almost embarrassingly low. The circulations for our top publications are dismal and falling further and further behind. Blood-Horse has an average weekly audience just short of 24,000, the Daily Racing Form hasn’t been able to move beyond a race day periodical and the Thoroughbred Times is not even listed on Wikipedia.
 
In contrast, according to Magazine Publishers of America US Weekly averages 1,773,285 monthly readers, Entertainment Weekly is read by 1,798,445 dedicated followers and industry standard People Magazine draws an army of 3,786,360, making it the the 11th most read publication in the country.
 
And while a chasm of difference seems to separate these two entities, the 30 and under female audience so coveted by these celebrity gossip rags are also easily drawn to the majestic beauty of our athletes. Exposing this crowd to our sport, regardless of the delivery vessel, pays dividends as we try to expand our reach.
 
In this 24-hour news cycle, our industry normally can’t even get its foot in the revolving door. And so it is with some hesitation that we must welcome these celebs to our playground. When trying to expand our reach and rescue racing from the throes of bankruptcy, racing beggars can’t be choosers. Just promise us, if you see Paris at the track on Saturday, don’t snub your nose at her. Instead thank her for being there, ask her to strike a pose and tell her you have inside information that she should put all her money on Mine That Bird to win…

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